196 people died of it in Italy on Wednesday, if I'm right. Terrible figures and terrible experiences for those involved, but it seems to be stabilising.
International school trips and over-70s going on cruises were not supermegafantastic ideas last week, nor the week before that, and HMG were fully aware of this. As anybody who'd been paying attention would have been well aware, I'd have thought. Cancelling them would have been easier if the government had stated the obvious.
I trust that the government are getting very good scientific advice on big calls like school closures, cancelling sporting events, calling up extra NHS staff etc. I can't trust that this excellent advice is going to be implemented brilliantly (issues re PPE/training for medical staff, for example). And I certainly don't trust every word emanating from the mouths of the government and its advisers, because if they're doing their jobs correctly then they will have thought very carefully about their communication strategy, rather than just blurting out the unvarnished, complex truth and acknowledging doubts and gaps in the evidence.
I hope at least in this phase they will be straight up about how high-risk groups (I'm talking selfishly because I'm one of them!) can reduce their risks. I know there were reasons they weren't fully transparent about this before, for example people getting fed up with following restrictions, but surely "don't go on a cruise" isn't the kind of advice people were going to get itchy about if asked to do it for an extra couple of weeks? Should it ever come close to a Lombardy style lock-down, again they'll know far more than they will say. I trust the quality of their advice to HMG more than I trust their openness with us.
I think Johnson is a tosser, but I think he was very genuine and sincere just now. The bloke understands its going to be bad, and he's following the plan that his team thinks is the right one. It might not be, but I honestly believe he isn't playing games.
His mother must be proud, seeing him grow up at last.
I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.
Yay!
So -
1. Trump swept away. 2. Private schools out of business. 3. Legacy of better personal hygiene. 4. Great buying opportunity when the Footsy hits 3,000. 5. ???
The pluses mount.
Those who get it early can go on really, really cheap holidays.
CMO also calmly explaining why timing is critical. Emphasising that this is "for the long haul".
The UK's scientists are explaining shutdowns will be for months. Other nations are saying we're shutting down for 2 weeks.
I know who I think is more realistic.
This is a remarkably honest presentation, along the lines of our discussion this morning. He even admitted at the beginning that more infections, prior to a lockdown, are desirable.
Also good clear explanation of why now is not the time to take some steps -a reply for the Something Must BE DONE!!!! brigade.
I just don't buy this oldies can't isolate, it just too hard mentality.
Most of these people lived through the war or its aftermath.
That latter part is the problem. People who lived through the war or its aftermath need support now.
You can support them, but also tell them not to go out (at the very least, just don't go out unless you absolutely 100% need to). That is very different from don't go on a nice cruise.
Maybe I am a weirdo, I don't get this you can't mentality stay isolated for a few weeks. I did 3 months of it stuck in bed after an op and housebound for total 5 months.
It really wasn't that bad, loads of telly, got work done, and learned a load of new stuff off the interweb.
Maybe I am a weirdo, I don't get this you can't mentality stay isolated for a few weeks. I did 3 months of it stuck in bed after an op and housebound for 5 months.
It really wasn't that hard, loads of telly, got work done, and learned a load of new stuff.
Especially when it is likely to save your life and the lives of your loved ones.
I think Johnson is a tosser, but I think he was very genuine and sincere just now. The bloke understands its going to be bad, and he's following the plan that his team thinks is the right one. It might not be, but I honestly believe he isn't playing games.
Agree. I yield to no one in my estimation of the wankerishness of Boris. But on this one he is playing a blinder.
Will he get it right? Perhaps. But his approach is understandable and, knowing the bloody-mindedness of the Brits, probably right also.
I just don't buy this oldies can't isolate, it just too hard mentality.
Most of these people lived through the war or its aftermath.
They can't isolate if they have no family to help them. Your parents are very lucky in such a diligent son.
There are many old people with no children, or children a long way away.
That is why I would hope the government would have a plan for this. Identify the oldies, but don't do face to face, but drop off food etc.
Also, they aren't talking about the really vulnerable, they still aren't telling reasonably healthy oldies that you really need to keep out of the way.
Bullshit! Containment has failed. Containment was Plan A.
And her expertise is?
The science guys are saying that many people will not be able to stick quarantine beyond a certain period and so this needs to be done when the hit works for max effect.
Does Gill want to self-isolate for three or four months and see what happens?
Maybe I am a weirdo, I don't get this you can't mentality stay isolated for a few weeks. I did 3 months of it stuck in bed after an op and housebound for 5 months.
It really wasn't that hard, loads of telly, got work done, and learned a load of new stuff.
Especially when it is likely to save your life and the lives of your loved ones.
You would hope that might be just a bit of a small motivation factor.
The big problem groups are going to be those who live alone and don't or can't maintain seven days of food or other supplies and need to go out and the second group are those who cannot afford not to go to work and will continue to struggle on however ill they are infecting others because they need the money to pay rent and buy food.
Astonishing, they are saying what I've been saying that children get it but nothing at all about them spreading it to each other and then to families and so on.
Maybe I am a weirdo, I don't get this you can't mentality stay isolated for a few weeks. I did 3 months of it stuck in bed after an op and housebound for 5 months.
It really wasn't that hard, loads of telly, got work done, and learned a load of new stuff.
Especially when it is likely to save your life and the lives of your loved ones.
You would hope that might be just a bit of a small motivation factor.
Except those who think "Fuck 'em, I wanna go down the pub and watch the footie..."
I just don't buy this oldies can't isolate, it just too hard mentality.
Most of these people lived through the war or its aftermath.
They can't isolate if they have no family to help them. Your parents are very lucky in such a diligent son.
There are many old people with no children, or children a long way away.
That is why I would hope the government would have a plan for this. Identify the oldies, but don't do face to face, but drop off food etc.
Many of them will need carers to cook the food.
I still don't see how they can self-isolate.
Meals on wheels?
Also, I wasn't necessary talking about the absolutely most vulnerable, I was talking about the large number in 60/70s who are otherwise pretty fit and healthy and really need to keep away from society.
That's not what he said. He said they were using 80% as the model number at the moment, but it was effectively speculative and a real number will emerge from other countries further down the track.
So the Government are quite happy for me to get out and about and catch it.
Why the feck don't they even advise people to WFH if they can?
Maybe not everyone feels the need for the government to tell them what they should do? If you are worried about catching it whilst out and about, stay indoors! It is allowed, even if the PM hasn't ordered it
That's not what he said. He said they were using 80% as the model number at the moment, but it was effectively speculative and a real number will emerge from other countries further down the track.
Yes, but at one point they were much more focusing on they think 20% is realistic. They aren't willing to mention that again.
I don't like the pessimism that it isn't possible to hide away the elderly. Unlike kids or working age adults, they don't need to go to school or work.
I am 100% certain oldies can manage 3 months inside.
I know grand-parents look after kids, but surely schools can do after-school clubs (if you scrap the requirements of adult / kids ratios).
There is a tension between the public advice they dole out based on what they think most people can do (or behaviourally, what they will do when given instructions) versus the scientific advice that a self-interested risk-minimiser would like to receive to pull off their strategy as safely as possible, if they felt confident they were sufficiently determined and wouldn't get lazy later. Someone who really wants to dodge the disease, or has loved ones they want to protect, is going to have to listen to something other than the official advice and work some stuff out for themselves. I think that's just how it is. Figuring out last week that they ought to avoid cruises wasn't too hard. Figuring out what reasonable next steps to take might be a bit trickier. I hope more detailed official advice on "cocooning" comes out later.
I think that was paraphrased as - going to the stadium to watch football, is less bad than going to the pub with your mates to watch a closed doors match.
The big problem groups are going to be those who live alone and don't or can't maintain seven days of food or other supplies and need to go out and the second group are those who cannot afford not to go to work and will continue to struggle on however ill they are infecting others because they need the money to pay rent and buy food.
Most infected people will not get seriously ill and will mostly be infecting people who won’t get seriously ill.
She's clearly out of her depth. But she is a journalist, not an epidemiologist.
I find is interesting how those who want to carry out their personal program are completely ignoring the explanations given by the CMO and CSO. Not saying they are wrong, but simply not acknowledging what they are saying.
Nick Triggle Health Correspondent Other countries are closing schools, restricting movement and banning mass gatherings.
But health officials in the UK are taking a much more gradual, step-by-step approach. Why?
The obvious answer is that we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economy consequences.
But we are also in this for the long haul. Countries taking drastic steps may well slow transmission. But how long can those steps be sustained?
At some point they have to be lifted and then the number of cases will rise.
If you can have some kind of controlled transmission, where the number of cases are kept low enough to allow the NHS to cope, is that a better way of managing it?
That’s certainly what the experts and ministers in the UK have decided. They believe it gives them the best chance of saving lives in the inevitable spread of the virus across the country.
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Yes, but they are making decisions based on when the population will listen to them. Seriously, other countries must be getting very unnerved about that whole approach.
Comments
I trust that the government are getting very good scientific advice on big calls like school closures, cancelling sporting events, calling up extra NHS staff etc. I can't trust that this excellent advice is going to be implemented brilliantly (issues re PPE/training for medical staff, for example). And I certainly don't trust every word emanating from the mouths of the government and its advisers, because if they're doing their jobs correctly then they will have thought very carefully about their communication strategy, rather than just blurting out the unvarnished, complex truth and acknowledging doubts and gaps in the evidence.
I hope at least in this phase they will be straight up about how high-risk groups (I'm talking selfishly because I'm one of them!) can reduce their risks. I know there were reasons they weren't fully transparent about this before, for example people getting fed up with following restrictions, but surely "don't go on a cruise" isn't the kind of advice people were going to get itchy about if asked to do it for an extra couple of weeks? Should it ever come close to a Lombardy style lock-down, again they'll know far more than they will say. I trust the quality of their advice to HMG more than I trust their openness with us.
Italy We left it a bit late but we are taking draconian measures to try and limit the deaths
Trump My idea of pretending it's not serious isn't working we will do draconian things now.
Boris keep washing your hands and sing happy birthday.
Couldn't make it up.
Just do what you need to do to protect yourself and your family, I suppose.
Most of these people lived through the war or its aftermath.
3000 in one day.
This is madness. He's following the experts.
There are many old people with no children, or children a long way away.
It really wasn't that bad, loads of telly, got work done, and learned a load of new stuff off the interweb.
"Chinese officials push conspiracy theory coronavirus originated abroad
Theory is gaining traction online in China that Covid-19 came from the US"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china
Will he get it right? Perhaps. But his approach is understandable and, knowing the bloody-mindedness of the Brits, probably right also.
Also, they aren't talking about the really vulnerable, they still aren't telling reasonably healthy oldies that you really need to keep out of the way.
The science guys are saying that many people will not be able to stick quarantine beyond a certain period and so this needs to be done when the hit works for max effect.
Does Gill want to self-isolate for three or four months and see what happens?
You will see within a fortnight.
Carry on washing your hands Rob that should do the trick.
Why the feck don't they even advise people to WFH if they can?
I still don't see how they can self-isolate.
Also, I wasn't necessary talking about the absolutely most vulnerable, I was talking about the large number in 60/70s who are otherwise pretty fit and healthy and really need to keep away from society.
We have cut Acute beds by 1/3 since 2010. Let's see how Care in the Community works when you need a respirator
It is an insight into what kind of intelligence gets you a PPE degree from Magdalen College, Oxford.
Wales is far worse.
Who runs Wales?
(Actually, many countries are worse than England in Western Europe -- England is about in the middle. Wales is at the bottom.)
Just like Blair followed "advice" on Iraqs WMDs
Is that it? Don't go on a cruise and stay home if you feel ill?
Not just me thinking this is a total shitshow either: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic
Nick Triggle
Health Correspondent
Other countries are closing schools, restricting movement and banning mass gatherings.
But health officials in the UK are taking a much more gradual, step-by-step approach. Why?
The obvious answer is that we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economy consequences.
But we are also in this for the long haul. Countries taking drastic steps may well slow transmission. But how long can those steps be sustained?
At some point they have to be lifted and then the number of cases will rise.
If you can have some kind of controlled transmission, where the number of cases are kept low enough to allow the NHS to cope, is that a better way of managing it?
That’s certainly what the experts and ministers in the UK have decided. They believe it gives them the best chance of saving lives in the inevitable spread of the virus across the country.
BBC
Perhaps this being PM lark isn't always as much of a doodle as once thought.
Currently infected: 12.839 (+2.249 compared to yesterday) including 1,153 in Intensive care (+125)
Deaths: 1.016 (+189)
Healed: 1.258 (+213)
You would be shouting at the TV
Hmm...
Kinda ducked. But they do not believe that you can stop the widespread infection indefinitely.
Yet PB is full of people calling for more to be done to stop its spread now.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.