By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)
I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.
So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
How the hell is the government going to explain that if China is on roughly 100,000 cases?
Perhaps that we don't believe it was only 100k cases.
If we have appear to have 30 times as many cases as China I don't give the government much chance of persuading the public that China's numbers are wrong.
I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.
In the sandpit, the (mostly private) schools have been ordered closed for a month. They're all deploying technology for virtual classes and indent to keep learning going. No fee refunds, the teachers still need to be paid and the costs of running the building don't change much whether it's occupied or not.
I've just had an email from my son's school setting out their plans to run online lessons using Microsoft Teams in the event that the school is closed.
The bizarre thing about all events being called off is it seems to be based off of 1 or more of the players/participants being tested positive whilst the far greater chance of someone in a crowd being +ve and then spreading the virus is ignored ?
I'm thinking of Oz GP/Cheltenham here.
Pro tennis at all levels cancelled until late april at earliest. Not even finishing this weeks events I dont think.
Breaking: May elections could be postponed until autumn The electoral commission has written to the government to recommend the elections be pushed back until the autumn.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
And back in Waitrose head-office, somebody is fist-pumping, going
"YES! Camomile. Hahahaha! I knew some daft bugger would buy them!"
Breaking: May elections could be postponed until autumn The electoral commission has written to the government to recommend the elections be pushed back until the autumn.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
Can you get flu and corona simultaneously or does having one preclude having the other (at any given time)?
I really wouldn't know. It's probably too difficult to find out, but I'd like to know if the death/infection rate of flu was up or down this winter
The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.
Hasn't the US banned flights in both directions already?
No, but airlines need passengers on both legs to make money.
I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.
In the sandpit, the (mostly private) schools have been ordered closed for a month. They're all deploying technology for virtual classes and indent to keep learning going. No fee refunds, the teachers still need to be paid and the costs of running the building don't change much whether it's occupied or not.
I've just had an email from my son's school setting out their plans to run online lessons using Microsoft Teams in the event that the school is closed.
That is the message I've been giving my classes too.
The appearance of not being in charge, for him, is worse than anything else remotely possible to imagine.
Yes. In the minds of his "base" his big positive - apart from bravely expressing "unPC" sentiments such as racism and misogyny - is that he is not your normal useless airy fairy politician but a tough can-do operator seasoned in the world of big business who can bang heads together and get shit done.
So, watch this space. Watch the Don get a grip and sort this by end of next week. Cometh the hour ...
Any verification of the rumour, reported by WalesOnline, that schools finish for Easter next Friday and have been asked to prepare remote study packs? Possibility that May school holidays could be scrapped.
"This weekend's season-opening Australian Grand Prix has been called off over coronavirus concerns, two senior F1 sources have told BBC Sport.
There has been no official confirmation as yet from F1 or governing body the FIA but the news follows a McLaren team member testing positive for the virus."
Very unofficial, Andrew Benson flying a flag and getting quoted in a lot of international media.
The bizarre thing about all events being called off is it seems to be based off of 1 or more of the players/participants being tested positive whilst the far greater chance of someone in a crowd being +ve and then spreading the virus is ignored ?
I'm thinking of Oz GP/Cheltenham here.
I think this is less about sports organisers wanting to prevent a public health risk (so long as they can't get sued for it, transmission in the crowd is not really their problem) than it is about protecting their stars / product / integrity of their competition. Let's say one team member has tested positive. So, they don't get named in the matchday squad, but what if one of those selected to play is infected? And what if they spread it to the opposing team? Once you end up with scores of players in self-isolation, does a club have to play their reserve team? And so on. Cheltenham is an interesting comparison, it could have been shut down in 2019 over equine flu fears for its competitors which is basically the equivalent concern thas got the NBA suspended!
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Wait until the fresh veg and fruit supplies from Spain dry up.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Stacks of toilet rolls in the Tesco we've just visited near Colchester. No sanitiser, though. Went on to an independent pharmacy not far away; bought surgical spirit to go with our aloe vera gel, to make some sanitiser.
By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)
I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.
So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
How the hell is the government going to explain that if China is on roughly 100,000 cases?
Perhaps that we don't believe it was only 100k cases.
If we have appear to have 30 times as many cases as China I don't give the government much chance of persuading the public that China's numbers are wrong.
The comparison is to France or Germany or Italy. I think many people have some scepticism of the Chinese figures -- not just Europeans, but the South Koreans and Japanese are sceptical as well.
If at the end of it all, the UK has done OK compared to France and Germany , then the gov't will be fine. If not, they will have some very awkward questions to answer.
The gov't has a big advantage, because the epidemic in the UK is behind the obvious comparison countries. We can see what is going to happen & learn from their mistakes.
This will save each CLP a few quid not having to pay the rail fares of delegates. Which is a good thing, since any planned fundraising events will also be cancelled.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Wait until the fresh veg and fruit supplies from Spain dry up.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Stacks of toilet rolls in the Tesco we've just visited near Colchester. No sanitiser, though. Went on to an independent pharmacy not far away; bought surgical spirit to go with our aloe vera gel, to make some sanitiser.
There was an article on LBC this afternoon, where a scientist said homemade surgical spirit gel is ineffective and dangerously flammable!
I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.
Yay!
So -
1. Trump swept away. 2. Private schools out of business. 3. Legacy of better personal hygiene. 4. Great buying opportunity when the Footsy hits 3,000. 5. ???
Park runs to be cancelled if gatherings of more than 1000 people are banned.
Already cancelled in Italy and NL (where they had just started). Ireland looks likely to be off, also Scotland, banning events over 500. Poland under threat as well.
The world economy has just had a serious myocardial infarction. It is not immediately obvious where the CPR is going to come from. Normally we would look to the Fed but with a delusional imbecile in the White House there is no one to do the compressions.
So I guess the question is when is a good time to buy. Or just start trickling money in since its 20% better than a month ago? Then again I seem to remember FTSE near 7000 in 1999 too...
The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.
Hasn't the US banned flights in both directions already?
No, but airlines need passengers on both legs to make money.
They need to run 80% or more flights, to keep the slots.
EU have said they will relax this rule, but they haven't legislated it yet.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Stacks of toilet rolls in the Tesco we've just visited near Colchester. No sanitiser, though. Went on to an independent pharmacy not far away; bought surgical spirit to go with our aloe vera gel, to make some sanitiser.
There was an article on LBC this afternoon, where a scientist said homemade surgical spirit gel is ineffective and dangerously flammable!
Well, it's bound to be inflammable, so precautions will be necessary...... no naked flames etc ......but I can't see why, at the right strength, it's ineffective. But thanks for the warning.
Top US health official: Virus testing 'is failing' The testing system for the coronavirus in the US is currently failing, according to the top health official on infectious diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci.
“The system is not really geared to what we need right now… that is a failing, let’s admit it,” he said. “The idea of anybody getting it easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be. Yes. But we’re not.”
The US government has come under fire as the country has conducted far fewer tests than many other affected countries, including South Korea and Italy.
In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Vice President Mike Pence could not confirm how many Americans had been tested for the virus.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.
It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.
The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
I think you'll find the lines are NOT curving downwards. They are still going up but with less of a gradient.
As they are cumulative cases, I don't think it's possible for them to go down.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Stacks of toilet rolls in the Tesco we've just visited near Colchester. No sanitiser, though. Went on to an independent pharmacy not far away; bought surgical spirit to go with our aloe vera gel, to make some sanitiser.
There was an article on LBC this afternoon, where a scientist said homemade surgical spirit gel is ineffective and dangerously flammable!
Well, it's bound to be inflammable, so precautions will be necessary...... no naked flames etc ......but I can't see why, at the right strength, it's ineffective. But thanks for the warning.
It dries the skin out, which might leave it more vulnerable to infection, and the aloe Vera didn't mix in enough, negating it's effect. Still, if it's no good, you can always drink it!
Czech Republic tells us to do one: "To further prevent the spread of Coronavirus from abroad, citizens of 15 countries - China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK, Denmark and France - will be refused entry from midnight on Friday."
Saying that they're not *yet* advising the families of people with symptoms to self-isolate, but will do in the future, seems a bit absurd. It's as if they want to seed the virus in the community first before locking down the vulnerable.
Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
Stacks of toilet rolls in the Tesco we've just visited near Colchester. No sanitiser, though. Went on to an independent pharmacy not far away; bought surgical spirit to go with our aloe vera gel, to make some sanitiser.
There was an article on LBC this afternoon, where a scientist said homemade surgical spirit gel is ineffective and dangerously flammable!
Well, it's bound to be inflammable, so precautions will be necessary...... no naked flames etc ......but I can't see why, at the right strength, it's ineffective. But thanks for the warning.
It dries the skin out, which might leave it more vulnerable to infection, and the aloe Vera didn't mix in enough, negating it's effect. Still, if it's no good, you can always drink it!
It's definitely not a question of 'just' mixing the two; needs mixing in something like a mortar and pestle.Need to ensure the two are properly mixed. Not sure than an electric food mixer would be up to it. Going back to the skills I was taught in my youth! But again, thanks for the heads up. I was getting round to thinking about it in detail.
Saying that they're not *yet* advising the families of people with symptoms to self-isolate, but will do in the future, seems a bit absurd. It's as if they want to seed the virus in the community first before locking down the vulnerable.
Czechs refuse entry to citizens of 15 countriesTo further prevent the spread of Coronavirus from abroad, citizens of 15 countries - China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK, Denmark and France - will be refused entry from midnight on Friday.
The Czech Republic is heavily reliant on foreign tourism – this will effectively suspend tourism overnight.
I think Johnson is a tosser, but I think he was very genuine and sincere just now. The bloke understands its going to be bad, and he's following the plan that his team thinks is the right one. It might not be, but I honestly believe he isn't playing games.
I don't like the pessimism that it isn't possible to hide away the elderly. Unlike kids or working age adults, they don't need to go to school or work.
I am 100% certain oldies can manage 3 months inside.
I know grand-parents look after kids, but surely schools can do after-school clubs (if you scrap the requirements of adult / kids ratios).
You have to be pretty fucking stupid to post that. If you don't think a peak is inevitable, then the curve of the number infected must carry on going up. And up.
It can't ever come down, because that gives a peak.
There are two possibilities. Either (i) there is a peak or (ii) everyone dies.
Let's see what scientific expert Scott has found for us now.
CMO also calmly explaining why timing is critical. Emphasising that this is "for the long haul".
The UK's scientists are explaining shutdowns will be for months. Other nations are saying we're shutting down for 2 weeks.
I know who I think is more realistic.
This is a remarkably honest presentation, along the lines of our discussion this morning. He even admitted at the beginning that more infections, prior to a lockdown, are desirable.
Comments
Now that's what I call panic buying. Hundreds of metres of queues.
The electoral commission has written to the government to recommend the elections be pushed back until the autumn.
Evening Standard
"YES! Camomile. Hahahaha! I knew some daft bugger would buy them!"
Shouldn't come as a surprise.
"This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020"
So, watch this space. Watch the Don get a grip and sort this by end of next week. Cometh the hour ...
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/schools-could-shut-month-next-17908929?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Just hope I don't get hooked. You can see how you might.
Devon/Torbay: 20
Ken & Chel: 19
Herts: 18
Oxon: 17
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
If at the end of it all, the UK has done OK compared to France and Germany , then the gov't will be fine. If not, they will have some very awkward questions to answer.
The gov't has a big advantage, because the epidemic in the UK is behind the obvious comparison countries. We can see what is going to happen & learn from their mistakes.
Italy is down *17%*!
If you felt okay, as many will, why couldn't you just work at home?
So -
1. Trump swept away.
2. Private schools out of business.
3. Legacy of better personal hygiene.
4. Great buying opportunity when the Footsy hits 3,000.
5. ???
The pluses mount.
EU have said they will relax this rule, but they haven't legislated it yet.
But thanks for the warning.
Top US health official: Virus testing 'is failing'
The testing system for the coronavirus in the US is currently failing, according to the top health official on infectious diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci.
“The system is not really geared to what we need right now… that is a failing, let’s admit it,” he said. “The idea of anybody getting it easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be. Yes. But we’re not.”
The US government has come under fire as the country has conducted far fewer tests than many other affected countries, including South Korea and Italy.
In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Vice President Mike Pence could not confirm how many Americans had been tested for the virus.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-51847128
The bit about families losing loved ones was stark.
Could easily be next week.
Going back to the skills I was taught in my youth!
But again, thanks for the heads up. I was getting round to thinking about it in detail.
https://twitter.com/SamanthaQuek/status/1238147850808315904
Maybe the UK is totally different from every other Country, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of published evidence that it is so
£ losing value against sterling
The Czech Republic is heavily reliant on foreign tourism – this will effectively suspend tourism overnight.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-51847128
Boris’s optimism is tremendous.
It might not be, but I honestly believe he isn't playing games.
More like foolhardy.
I am 100% certain oldies can manage 3 months inside.
I know grand-parents look after kids, but surely schools can do after-school clubs (if you scrap the requirements of adult / kids ratios).
No doubt to be ignored by all the Twitter armchair generals who know better.
The UK's scientists are explaining shutdowns will be for months. Other nations are saying we're shutting down for 2 weeks.
I know who I think is more realistic.
It can't ever come down, because that gives a peak.
There are two possibilities. Either (i) there is a peak or (ii) everyone dies.
Let's see what scientific expert Scott has found for us now.
Ah yes, Martha Gill. PPE, Oxford, HuffPo, Times,
PPE, for Chrissake.