politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
Comments
-
That is a spoof right?ReggieCide said:
I think it should go on a tee shirt - too long for a badgeCarlottaVance said:This aged well...
https://twitter.com/Pleep17/status/1205417657547284480?s=200 -
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.Alistair said:Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
0 -
What are you talking about? I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party; I neither connived nor lost. And there really were claims that Jews were afraid of new pogroms and that half would need to flee Britain. Is there a problem with antisemitism? Yes. It it on the same scale as in other countries? Nowhere near. And from anyone else, those facile comparisons with Nazi Germany would themselves be called out as antisemitic.IshmaelZ said:
What is this, English exceptionalism on steroids? How do you think you get to kristallnachts and pogroms and final solutions, except from a gradual start with a bit of bants about being careful with money?DecrepiterJohnL said:
It's nonsense though, unless anyone really did believe -- as oppose to claim to believe -- that Corbyn in Downing Street would lead to a new Kristallnacht or even to the sort of physical and sometimes armed assaults of Jews that have been seen recently in France, Germany and the United States.CarlottaVance said:
You don't mean it of course. You connived at antisemitism and lost. You were called out at that the time. Don't double down by pretending that now it's all over we can all have a laugh and admit that that the warnings were just a partisan ploy. They were not.1 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1205411366435209216
This is the kind of thing a decent new Labour leader needs to exploit.
On that point probably not the case. They never do 'turn out' - parlty simple fecklessness but largely at their age other priorities can so easily take up their time - in my case my biggest one was always getting laid - oh actually that hasn't changed too much! :0CorrectHorseBattery said:What also must disappoint me is how despite all the signs, the youth vote just did not turn out. I have to conclude that must also be down to Corbyn.
0 -
I believe Greens would be better off as part of the Labour Party.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Perhaps that is exactly what needs to happen.MyBurningEars said:
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
It's a mistake to think Labour as we know it would be perpetually in government under PR, and most likely Labour would fracture into several parties in a PR system! (There's some fancy political science behind why PR supports more parties than FPTP, and Labour's internal coalition from working-class socialism to the "brahmins" would clearly be ripe for rupturing when there's a system both could compete independently in. FPTP enforces sticking together because you get punished if you try breaking out on your own.)
I didn't ever predict a Labour split or crisis in 2015 - but I can honestly see one now.
We needs the Lib Dems. When they start accumulating votes it's general time to copy their policies to keep in the centre ground.0 -
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.CarlottaVance said:
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.Alistair said:Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
0 -
They have the choice of Ed Davey or nooneReggieCide said:
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.Foxy said:We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.0 -
Thank you. Muchly.Alistair said:
That was me. What a fucking error by Betfair. Absolute fury that I was limited to thirty quid as others got on hundreds.kyf_100 said:Some great chat on here last night. Can't remember who tipped the SNP under 55 seats bet at 1.93 but I filled my boots on that one.
As ever, PB is a pleasure on election night. It's a shame we will have to wait five years for another one now.0 -
It's tragic really. I place more trust on Johnson's self interest than on the wisdom of the opposition parties.logical_song said:
Don't forget that people voted for the lesser of the two evils, it really depends on Labour's next choice now.Chris said:
The idea that Johnson "believes in" anything other than his own narrow self-interest is a comical one.CarlottaVance said:
That's what gives me hope that this Tory victory isn't such bad news as the other six in my lifetime.0 -
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Labour got killed in Scotland for opposing independence and looking like the Tories' poodle. I would recommend that Labour do nothing to stand in the way of Scottish independence, which I think is now much more likely than not. Scotland and E&W no longer form a single political culture, the Scots should have the freedom to build a modern, European social democratic country on their own. Left wing unionism is dead.ReggieCide said:
I'm not Labour but, given that perspective, I think Labour's first priority is Scotland. The Independence debate is going to make this election look like a tea party. It has to find some way of stopping that or at least slowing it down. For what it's worth, I reckon that helping to push BREXIT though asap so that the Scots are definitely looking at rejoining rather than staying in, looks a viable strategy.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Let's be realistic, Labour isn't going to be winning a majority anytime soon. Not with the SNP cleaning up in Scotland again (to be fair I did predict that!),ReggieCide said:
There's a Catch 22 here. You only get to introduce PR if you win FPTP and why change a winning system?MyBurningEars said:
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
It's a mistake to think Labour as we know it would be perpetually in government under PR, and most likely Labour would fracture into several parties in a PR system! (There's some fancy political science behind why PR supports more parties than FPTP, and Labour's internal coalition from working-class socialism to the "brahmins" would clearly be ripe for rupturing when there's a system both could compete independently in. FPTP enforces sticking together because you get punished if you try breaking out on your own.)0 -
Correct - apart from the fact that Labour was and is, not a remain party. Back to the abacus.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Will offer Emily Maitlis cash right now to lamp Dan Carden one.1
-
That last sentence truly jumps the shark.DecrepiterJohnL said:
What are you talking about? I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party; I neither connived nor lost. And there really were claims that Jews were afraid of new pogroms and that half would need to flee Britain. Is there a problem with antisemitism? Yes. It it on the same scale as in other countries? Nowhere near. And from anyone else, those facile comparisons with Nazi Germany would themselves be called out as antisemitic.IshmaelZ said:
What is this, English exceptionalism on steroids? How do you think you get to kristallnachts and pogroms and final solutions, except from a gradual start with a bit of bants about being careful with money?DecrepiterJohnL said:
It's nonsense though, unless anyone really did believe -- as oppose to claim to believe -- that Corbyn in Downing Street would lead to a new Kristallnacht or even to the sort of physical and sometimes armed assaults of Jews that have been seen recently in France, Germany and the United States.CarlottaVance said:
You don't mean it of course. You connived at antisemitism and lost. You were called out at that the time. Don't double down by pretending that now it's all over we can all have a laugh and admit that that the warnings were just a partisan ploy. They were not.0 -
Oh come on, the Tories don't give a crap about racism, that much has been clear throughout the campaign.IshmaelZ said:
Because no one could really *mind* about what happened to, say, Anne Frank, and be genuinely concerned that it might happen again, right? Must be political point scoring. Must be.CorrectHorseBattery said:I guess the Tories never did stop political point scoring over racism. Now they've won, I bet that inquiry disappears quickly.
I am glad you lost.
That's not to say Labour doesn't have massive problems. It does - and the next leader needs to sort it out. Because Labour has fucked it and ceased to be an anti-racist party.0 -
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"2 -
Worth a try...Alistair said:
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.CarlottaVance said:
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.Alistair said:Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
0 -
Me too, that 1.4 on the Con Maj that was around for about a fortnight. Elections always feel better with winnings as well as a good result for the country!Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.0 -
If we have a recession in the next five years, the Tories will have to own it. No point blaming Labour anymore.0
-
Reflections on the night:
My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?
1 -
I think layla might want to fight him for that prizePeterMannion said:
They have the choice of Ed Davey or nooneReggieCide said:
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.Foxy said:We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
0 -
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...1 -
Next attempt is to get one of the SCon wins struck off and then I'm well up as my SCon 1-5 bet comes in.CarlottaVance said:
Worth a try...Alistair said:
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.CarlottaVance said:
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.Alistair said:Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
0 -
They can, but neither Momentum as currently constituted, or Balls and Johnson, are the future.Cookie said:Reflections on the night:
My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?0 -
You can only hope....CorrectHorseBattery said:If we have a recession in the next five years, the Tories will have to own it. No point blaming Labour anymore.
0 -
In 2019 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories.
The margin is around 2% for GB only. Given my post of 8th December below, I am formally claiming copyright of "Phil's Previous Election Polling Overcorrection Hypothesis" henceforth to be known as PPEPOH.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In 2005 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2010 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
In 2015 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2017 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
Spot a pattern?
If Labour is overstated relative to the Tories in 2019, I claim copyright of Phil's "previous election polling overcorrection hypothesis". i.e. Polling companies tend to correct for errors in the previous election, and are vulnerable to the questionable assumption that the factors causing the errors at the last election will still be relevant at the next one.0 -
I hope it won't come to fisticuffs!felix said:
I think layla might want to fight him for that prizePeterMannion said:
They have the choice of Ed Davey or nooneReggieCide said:
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.Foxy said:We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.1 -
Dunno about that. Few democracies stay one-party states forever. A Labour Party that evolves to shift its political centre of gravity closer to that which works for England and Wales, and which is freed of the limitation of making sure its messages play okay to a very different audience north of the border, would surely become competitive over time. Potentially quite quickly, on the "it only takes one big-enough government cock-up" basis.ReggieCide said:
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.0 -
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.0
-
Well LD surge and hung didn't pay off
But grabbed below with Ladbrokes around 2am and won on top one:
Tory Majority Size 71-80 13/2
13/12/2019 @ 01.53
Tory Majority Size 61-70 10/1
13/12/2019 @ 01.540 -
lol, one candidate who didn't win in a tweet said that. Every single piece of SNP election literature on the other hand said Scotland's Future in Scotland's HandsCarlottaVance said:0 -
A curious night. Whilst Boris has done little to deserve his mini-landslide, it does at least mean that the the Tories have now been stripped of all excuses for not delivering the absolute optimal Brexit/European settlement. Gina Miller, Bercow, Grieve, Phil Hammond - all those bogeymen are now gone. It's now down to Boris and Boris alone. We will monitor his progress with interest.1
-
0
-
Yes, interesting to hear George Osborne last night. He was basically saying that the Tories would need to morph into the party of intervention, regulation and big-state spending: i.e. the Labour Party. Will Boris be able to pull this off?WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairlty quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies fairly quickly. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
2 -
Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?1
-
No more batshit crazy economic plans, please.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
0 -
I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.90 -
The last thing we want is a leadership election. Ed Davey takes over Moran as deputy and see how it goes. Watching Hughes tell the world how useless we were is not helping. Go back to basics concentrate on the up and coming elections advocate close EU cooperation and again see how it plays out. Can Johnson go five years without a scandal? Who knows so let thing play out. Let Labour put in Long Bailey or Rayner and wait and see.felix said:
I think layla might want to fight him for that prizePeterMannion said:
They have the choice of Ed Davey or nooneReggieCide said:
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.Foxy said:We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.0 -
Ed Miliband. But we've tried him before...CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
0 -
Fight!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7787007/Jeremy-Corbyns-tenure-Labour-leader-looks-over.html
Come on you moderates!!
1 -
He's a better leader than three or four years ago.rkrkrk said:
Ed Miliband. But we've tried him before...CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
0 -
The difference between that and the local election result.Pulpstar said:I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.90 -
EdM as Michael HowardWhisperingOracle said:
He's a better leader than three or four years ago.rkrkrk said:
Ed Miliband. But we've tried him before...CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
0 -
I'd happily vote for him. But I doubt he will run or win.WhisperingOracle said:
He's a better leader than three or four years ago.rkrkrk said:
Ed Miliband. But we've tried him before...CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour needs to tack to Norway-style social democracy, I think. Anyone like that in the party waiting in the wings?
0 -
Con came close in so many "safe" labour seats. It could have been so much worse for them.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Highly efficient Con vote. Highly inefficient Lab operation.
1 -
Can someone put the BBC, ITV, Sky and any other election results program on YouTube please.
It will make happy viewing over Christmas.1 -
At some point the Lib Dems need to decide a position on Rejoin. Probably post-Brexit. That'll be a big call though, not just a wait-and-see thing.nichomar said:
The last thing we want is a leadership election. Ed Davey takes over Moran as deputy and see how it goes. Watching Hughes tell the world how useless we were is not helping. Go back to basics concentrate on the up and coming elections advocate close EU cooperation and again see how it plays out. Can Johnson go five years without a scandal? Who knows so let thing play out. Let Labour put in Long Bailey or Rayner and wait and see.felix said:
I think layla might want to fight him for that prizePeterMannion said:
They have the choice of Ed Davey or nooneReggieCide said:
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.Foxy said:We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
Something of a disadvantage to the Lib Dems that leaving the EU means no more Euro Elections where they benefit from the PR (in both senses of "PR")!0 -
Time to get rid of Channel 4CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1205411366435209216
This is the kind of thing a decent new Labour leader needs to exploit.1 -
Jess Phillips is high risk but understands modern communication. She isnt clearly either leftist or Blairite so has a blank canvas that can possibly appeal to both sides in the same way Johnson managed to keep some tory wets and one nationers on board with the ERG.Cookie said:Reflections on the night:
My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?0 -
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.1 -
-
Having been in power for years and years never stopped Gordon Brown!CorrectHorseBattery said:If we have a recession in the next five years, the Tories will have to own it. No point blaming Labour anymore.
0 -
Good work!Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.0 -
Morning all. I had around 3 hours sleep, and the caffeine is starting to kick in, so I am ready to take on the first day of the Bozo Utopia.
It occurred to me earlier that under the new rules it is possible that nobody makes it onto the Labour leadership ballot. Gridlock between PLP and the unions.
On my patch Philip Davies increased his majority, naturally. Glad I didn't waste my time pounding the pavements.0 -
It was already effective got rid of as both a politically more radical and artistically and intellectually more ambitious channel by the Broadcasting Act 1990. All that remains is Channel 4 news.nunu2 said:
Time to get rid of Channel 4CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1205411366435209216
This is the kind of thing a decent new Labour leader needs to exploit.0 -
Always amusing to take a look back in the comment section of The Guardian. How did this pan out?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/15/nicola-sturgeon-independence-labour-scottish-referendum-snp0 -
Well lets hope so. And its perfectly plausible, with Johnson I dont think anyone knows what we are going to get, possibly not even himself!RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
0 -
I hope the next Leader has the mettle to do a clear out of the SWP rabble.dr_spyn said:2 -
Labour are a party of the cities.0
-
Another of the "serves you right for voting Brexit/Johnson" brigade:
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1205426473131225088?s=200 -
Not strictly true. The tension has just been reversed. Now parliament wants Brexit and the majority of country thinks its a bad idea.CarlottaVance said:
Doesnt matter any more as its going to happen on Johnsons rubbish deal now.0 -
After nine years of coalition, tiny majority and hung parliament, any solid majority feels like a landslide!nunu2 said:
What do you call a landslide. For me a landslide is a majority of 90 seats plus. I used to think 100+ but 90 is fair.Marcus01 said:Not quite as many votes as John Major but a Thatcher style landslide.
What does PB think?0 -
Not a serious suggestion.eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.0 -
I prefer mineMaxPB said:As for my nowcast:
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
Total profit £100 0 -
Thanks CR.Casino_Royale said:
Good work!Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA
2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents
3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for.
4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland
0 -
I reported on the misplaced optimism last night of my son's Corbynista friends
This morning they are screaming it's a rigged election
2 -
The best bit about last night, the crushing defeat of Remain.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Not for me - it was the rejection of the anti semitic marxistsRobD said:
The best bit about last night, the crushing defeat of Remain.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Corbyn cult may be making an all too predictable choice to dig a deeper hole but the LDs need to make one too.fox327 said:We are now waiting to see what Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters are going to do next. My assumption is that the left wing of the Labour party will decide to fight on to the bitter end. I think that essentially Labour has made its choice and it will never go back to being a centrist party. The UK now faces a very long drawn out replacement of Labour by the Liberal Democrats as the main party on the left wing of politics, which could take 10 - 30 years.
In this election Labour has lost 59 seats or -22.5% compared to 2017. The Liberal Democrats have lost 1 seat (without St. Ives) or -8.5% compared to 2017. They are slowly closing the gap between them and Labour. I think this process will continue year after year in local, mayoral, regional and general elections, but it will be slow until the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour nationally.
The biggest swing that I have so far seen against an incumbent party was the 17.5% swing from LD to Con in 58% Leave-voting North Norfolk.
If a centrist left leaning alternative to Labour is to emerge, with broad enough support to win at a GE, it needs to appeal across the Brexit spectrum and it can only effectively do that by accepting that Brexit is now done and dusted and should be regarded as a non-issue for the foreseeable future.2 -
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says:eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.0 -
The epic KLF song that was posted here yesterday needs to be remixed as 'it's Tory, up north' with its Jerusalem ending fitting even better now I suggest?0
-
Morning all, fell asleep on the sofa some time between 3.30 and 4, woke up roughly 6 am to a Tory majority. Wet to bed soon after, got up an hour ago.
Just wanted to point out ELBOW predicted vote-shares 43.1 and 33.7, so not too far out, compared with 2015 and 2017
0 -
I try not to get over-excited about meaningless political antics these days, but I have to say that you defile Anne Frank's name by dragging her into your sordid little partisan lies.IshmaelZ said:
Because no one could really *mind* about what happened to, say, Anne Frank, and be genuinely concerned that it might happen again, right? Must be political point scoring. Must be.CorrectHorseBattery said:I guess the Tories never did stop political point scoring over racism. Now they've won, I bet that inquiry disappears quickly.
I am glad you lost.0 -
Tiries didnt do too badly in London in the end.0
-
I personally think that is their one redeeming featureDecrepiterJohnL said:
That is what is unforgivable and inexplicable. It's not the extremism of the shadowy figures around Corbyn, it's their sheer bloody incompetence.noneoftheabove said:
I never once heard a Labour politician say it was similar to Cameron's position. It was an easy reply to a difficult position to explain.DecrepiterJohnL said:
That can be overstated. The politics and presentation were shockingly bad but the basic position, renegotiate and then decide whether or not to remain neutral in a referendum was perfectly defensible. It was the position of Wilson and more pertinently it was the position of the Conservative government led by David Cameron. It was defensible but not defended.Jonathan said:
Corbyn showed zero leadership on Brexit from day one. He ceded the whole territory to Boris. He could not dismantle the bullshit that was and is "get Brexit done". My not choosing a direction he caused this. He was boxed into a Hobsons choice and ultimately even got that wrong by trying to triangulate a binary issue.
This is nothing less than a complete failure of leadership and fear from someone who only his true believers thought could be PM.0 -
Zack Saber Jr is a national treasure. Possibly the best profession al wrestler in the world. His Promos blaming Boris Johnson for wrestling losses are superb.CarlottaVance said:Peak snowflake...
https://twitter.com/RTSportNews/status/1205250707986755584?s=200 -
Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).0 -
You did well.Barnesian said:
Mine is a mixed bag. About £70 profit in all, bolstered by the big bet I placed on Sarah Olney. It motivated me yesterday as Ied the GOTV in Barnes. I was up for 25 hours on the trot. Shattered today.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
My model has gone in for major repairs. Not sure it's repairable. I have 5 years. Probably get a new one.
I can’t talk. I spent most of the the campaign crapping my pants.0 -
Cant agree with 4 - if they want to leave it's entirely their callStocky said:
Thanks CR.Casino_Royale said:
Good work!Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA
2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents
3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for.
4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland0 -
Between those two yep, but Bradford South was nearly 25% swing lab to LD!Pulpstar said:I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.90 -
The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.2
-
Anyone with a parody Momentumite account might as well pack up now.dr_spyn said:1 -
American Republicanism here we come.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Actually, I didn’t really play that market heavily as I feared a hung parliament right to the end.Sandpit said:
Me too, that 1.4 on the Con Maj that was around for about a fortnight. Elections always feel better with winnings as well as a good result for the country!Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Only squeezed out £70 of profit from it.0 -
By the time Labour have even a sniff of power, tories will have been in charge for 19 years. Think about that. The tory majority is so big, it will take two elections atleast to overturn it.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we have a recession in the next five years, the Tories will have to own it. No point blaming Labour anymore.
0 -
It`s a psychosis - their brains don`t work along logical lines.SandyRentool said:
Anyone with a parody Momentumite account might as well pack up now.dr_spyn said:1 -
Lost Richmond and Putney, gained Carshalton and Kensington? So, came out a washnunu2 said:Tiries didnt do too badly in London in the end.
0 -
Excellent. A promising practical start.CarlottaVance said:1 -
I really have to start betting more money. I'm being out-smugged...Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
(Congrats to you both, btw)
0
