Mr. Battery, the problem is it isn't surprising at all. They're zealots. They're political fundamentalists. Facts won't stand in the way of their faith.
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Mine is a mixed bag. About £70 profit in all, bolstered by the big bet I placed on Sarah Olney. It motivated me yesterday as Ied the GOTV in Barnes. I was up for 25 hours on the trot. Shattered today.
My model has gone in for major repairs. Not sure it's repairable. I have 5 years. Probably get a new one.
You did well.
I can’t talk. I spent most of the the campaign crapping my pants.
I've done my sums and I'm up either £2.2K or £2.3K, depending on the final St Ives result. The odd thing is that I didn't really bet very much on the main result. I had a couple of dozen constituency bets, which went very well indeed sometimes at quite good odds, and a sell of the LibDems on the spreads at 45, which was obviously a nice one. I also did very well on SPIN's 25-10-0 markets - I looked for cases where the third-ranked party had little chance of coming second but was priced at between 3 and 6 points in most cases (9.5 in the case of the LibDems in Putney!!) and sold them, making a profit on all the seats I went for. Also turnout, zero seats for the BXP, less than 5 for PC, and Alistair's late tip on SNP under 55.5.
I know it came up a few times in the GE campaign, but I dont remember immigration being a huge focus. It definitely was part of Brexit but its toys out the pram to think thats it.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?
So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.
Agree with the last sentence. For the rest, let's hope for the best.
So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.
There's potential for quite a bit of activity in 2020 that has been backed up for months or years, put on hold waiting for Brexit to deliver some clarity. The housing market could start moving again. Investment decisions unlocked. Peope might start spending a little more freely. There could be the start of a feelgood factor as activity cranks up.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?
Betting -- having been too busy to bet over the last few weeks, and even yesterday, I have nothing except a couple of longstanding bets for the Brexit Party to win no seats, and for Labour to hold Streatham after Chuka defected. Trouble is, I can't remember who was the bookie for that one but I'm sure they will have paid up. Ironic if it was Tissue Price MP.
Love it. It sums up the campaign as well: You ancient, dying, Fascist Tory scum, Marxist Labour is sweeping the country and chucking Jewish MPs out; can we count on your vote on Thursday?
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities likend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says: If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructureb, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100
Thailand went from a rural subsistence fishing and peasant agricultural economy to to a modern industrial society in the space of a single generation. In the UK we have the legacy of been the first industrial nation, and coping with infrastructure decisions made a hundred years ago. Our exchange is in the middle of the town because of its location to the tram service for its mostly female staff to access. The tram in on that route because it linked the railways, the factories and the tram sheds that hug a road that was made by the Emperor Hadrian two thousand years ago.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?
"The left"? You make me laugh.
Glad I've amused you. Then whatever the fuck side of the political spectrum you are. Patronising the voters says more about you than your arch comments.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
But you're missing the fact that many of them will now have a vote in the Lib Dem leadership election!
Corbyn will presumably want to stay on until his important work tackling anti-semitism in the party is complete.
Or perhaps he''l become president in perpetuity or something, with two co-leaders who embrace diametrically opposite views as I think was the suggestion.
Strange how crap Labour are at dealing with defeat - especially since they've had so much recent practice.
For me the real villains in the Labour party who have stood for Parliament for the past 5 weeks and asked voters to put Corbyn and the cult into power. Had he won they'd have been fawning at his feet. Kudos to the few who had the guts to walk out before. The rest - if you lost your seat suck it up and if you won your seat suck it up again! With special extra penance for the ex Blairite ex MP NP!
I've so wanted to write this for quite a while now.
If the Tories win St Ives I think we should scroll back and see who predicted 365 seats, one for every day of the year. I definitely think we should do that We will ignore the labour under 200 bit though We could also check out if anyone predicted the Norwich south result extremely accurately. *pleased with self* P.s. my constituency bets were a disaster!!
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?
Corbyn will presumably want to stay on until his important work tackling anti-semitism in the party is complete.
Or perhaps he''l become president in perpetuity or something, with two co-leaders who embrace diametrically opposite views as I think was the suggestion.
Strange how crap Labour are at dealing with defeat - especially since they've had so much recent practice.
A touch unfair. I am sure people are tired and in shock this morning. The next few days are important, but right now they deserve some slack.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?
They didn't change the underlying poll numbers of a 55/45 remain split. Corbyn and Swinson, by acting with ridiculous over-confidence, failed to convert that into a victory.
If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
I can't see how the UK stays together anyway, and I think the Tories probably already know that.
Now everyone knows what a border between the EU and non EU is like, and how the Ireland matter can only be sorted because there is a convenient sea as an extra barrier, attention will have to turn in detail to how the England/Scotland border running from west to East would be managed. The last serious effort is now a World Heritage Site but it is not a happy precedent and didn't last.
I think it is true that very single seat on both sides of the Scottish/English border is currently Tory.
Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah Paula Sherriff Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Sue Hayman Laura Pidcock I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Williamson Dent Coad Wollaston (that one was personal!)
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.
Cummings will be directing the next couple of years of policy for Boris.
Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah Paula Sherriff Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Sue Hayman Laura Pidcock I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Williamson Dent Coad Wollaston (that one was personal!)
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.
Cummings will be directing the next couple of years of policy for Boris.
Congratulations to the Tories. They played it perfectly. I will repeat what I said last night: there is no need for them to tinker with our constitution; if the government is tempted to do it to increase the power of the executive and reduce scrutiny of it I just hope there are enough Tory MPs with the gumption to say no. Beyond that, let's get Brexit done as smoothly and as pragmatically as possible. Again, there is no need to do anything else. A trade deal with the US is not worth the pain and most voters will agree with that.
Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.
Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!
And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.
If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
Once we've left Scottish Nationalism is a shot fox. If they want to leave then, the border is their problem and their Belgian friends will be insisting on a hard one to protect their precious single market.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
Maybe. But fought how? Leadership challenge happened and failed badly. If they get a moderate leader this time then yes, perhaps they should have stayed. If not, what should the moderates do? Stay and 'fight'?
I do recognise that the failure of TIG will make a future split harder and perhaps less likely.
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do they? There's probably a tight margin if the referendum was re-run, but in the absence of that I suspect the number who want to simply overturn the previous referendum is a lot smaller.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.
Corbyn was 'non cooperatable'. If there isn't such a word there should be. I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?
Last night was very much a reaction to those MPs who thought their opinion counted more than that of their constituents. Very much at the sharp end of seeing it down in Totnes....
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.
Corbyn was 'non cooperatable'. If there isn't such a word there should be. I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.
As I continually reported, Corbyn came up time and time again - unprompted - as a reason why people were voting against Labour.
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Anything else and the forces of remain will use it's control of the Commons to.... ooops
Anything else then in 5 years it will be easy to convince the public that Boris and Leave lied to them and the “easy fix” will be to rejoin the EU. Not true? Who cares. It doesn’t matter anymore apparently.
Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah Paula Sherriff Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Sue Hayman Laura Pidcock I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Williamson Dent Coad Wollaston (that one was personal!)
Pidcock Swinson The ghost of Tom Watson
Morning all. Grieve, Grieve, Grieve and then Grieve. After that Pidcock and Wollaston. Well done Marquee Mark.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to PB overnight.
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.
Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.
Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.
Overall I agree, but as Gallowgate implies the wildcard is how many of the new intake are sufficiently opposed to a softer Brexit.
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities likend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says: If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructureb, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100
Blimey he's only two and he can check the broadband speed. A child genius!
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
Probably not for the next election, as it would be premature, but I expect there will be a 'movement' for rejoin by the usual suspects formed next year.
Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
My opinion is the former. They have been moving rightwards since the pits closed. And while Brexit is important to some of these voters, %Leave is more important as an indicator for a much wider set of views on the world. You can't now simply graft leaving the EU onto an otherwise Metropolitan set of views and expect voters to come back.
Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
All single-industry towns are changing out of recognition. Look at the size of the Tory majority in taking Scunthorpe last night. Places like Scunthorpe and down the road in Doncaster are moving to things like distribution. They are already reinventing themselves on the outskirts. As they do, they are becoming ever more Tory. They need a helping hand from Govt. though on the town centres.
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
Or departed in greater numbers, earlier, about the time of the Owen Smith challenge.
Corbyn is saying his byebyes as leader; his cult are still dominant amongst the membership.
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
Look where prejudgement has got you. Why do you want to do it again? Deal with it as it is. I voted Tory but I'm no fan of Boris; who knows how his support is made up. I suspect that "better than Corbyn" accounts for a significant chunk and they'll be watching too.
If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.
Why do you think so ?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.
Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.
Overall I agree, but as Gallowgate implies the wildcard is how many of the new intake are sufficiently opposed to a softer Brexit.
They will prove a poor recruiting ground for the ERG.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.
I suspect there will be big internal struggles to come, even with a big majority, because the Farage spectre is still there for the Tories.
He's waiting in the wings for the Tories to tack back to a softer Brexit again, as usual.
Interesting. I tend to think most people will see we have left on 1st Feb and that will be it for a while.
When leaving doesn't fix anything, a myth may well emerge that it's "because we didn't leave properly" but that's some way off.
Corbyn is saying his byebyes as leader; his cult are still dominant amongst the membership.
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)
Morning Matt! You were partly right, in that Zadrozny did better than I expected.
On the charity, please make the donation to St Mungo's, which I think we'll all agree is a good cause:
Can labour avoid splitting? Is there a unity candidate acceptable to the momentum cancer that controls the party? Or do they stick with the hard left and the moderates do a Change UK with time to make it work?
That was a major screw up on the part of Plaid Cymru. There is a reason why Nicola Sturgeon is Scotland's FM and Adam Price leads a tiny irrelevant group in Wales. Oh, nice to see the Lib Dems were wiped out in Wales.
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
Do you imagine we might rejoin an EU as it stands now?
I can't really see that unless somehow the UK's economy falls apart. Happily the chances of the latter situation diminished hugely last night.
Rejoining a substantially reformed EU - more along the lines of the EEC may well be possible though. Or perhaps they'll apply to join the UK
I think Boris is better in some ways than he's perceived. I don't think your worst fears will be realised, not least because he now has a substantial electoral base in places that aren't in such great shape. In my view it's likely we'll have a mini-boom for a couple of quarters somewhere soon - not anything positive from Boris, but just because the uncertainty blocking so many things has partly cleared.
I'm heading over to spend the weekend with Corbynista family members. I expect to hear a lot about the awful media, fascists and (unfortunately), the Jews.
Mr. Kirk, neither England nor Scotland existed, and the Antonine Wall postdated Hadrian's Wall.
Edited extra bit: missed a word.
Oh, just the way she came across. Not despertely likeable. Not as clever as she thought she was. But it is unfair to form a firm personal opinion on someone from how they come across in light-entertainment quiz show.
Comments
Wow! They really are that dense!!!
ROFL...
*innocent face*
Interesting times ahead.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
Or perhaps he''l become president in perpetuity or something, with two co-leaders who embrace diametrically opposite views as I think was the suggestion.
Strange how crap Labour are at dealing with defeat - especially since they've had so much recent practice.
I've so wanted to write this for quite a while now.
And breathe.
Ouch....
We will ignore the labour under 200 bit though
We could also check out if anyone predicted the Norwich south result extremely accurately.
*pleased with self*
P.s. my constituency bets were a disaster!!
I think it is true that very single seat on both sides of the Scottish/English border is currently Tory.
Dent Coad
Wollaston (that one was personal!)
He will have a 'to do' list a mile long.
Swinson
The ghost of Tom Watson
I would wish them well as we wave them off.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-result-live-tracker-constituency-vote-conservatives-labour-a9243856.html
Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.
Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!
And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.
I do recognise that the failure of TIG will make a future split harder and perhaps less likely.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
What I couldn't see was they were setting up a perfect storm for Boris.
If they hadn't done their best to obstruct the referendum result then last night definitely wouldn't have happened.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to PB overnight.
Mr. Kirk, neither England nor Scotland existed, and the Antonine Wall postdated Hadrian's Wall.
Edited extra bit: missed a word.
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)
When leaving doesn't fix anything, a myth may well emerge that it's "because we didn't leave properly" but that's some way off.
Lol
Fair play....Fair play
Though I doubt we will see him post again.
On the charity, please make the donation to St Mungo's, which I think we'll all agree is a good cause:
https://www.mungos.org/
I can't really see that unless somehow the UK's economy falls apart. Happily the chances of the latter situation diminished hugely last night.
Rejoining a substantially reformed EU - more along the lines of the EEC may well be possible though. Or perhaps they'll apply to join the UK
I think Boris is better in some ways than he's perceived. I don't think your worst fears will be realised, not least because he now has a substantial electoral base in places that aren't in such great shape. In my view it's likely we'll have a mini-boom for a couple of quarters somewhere soon - not anything positive from Boris, but just because the uncertainty blocking so many things has partly cleared.