Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Good work!
Thanks CR.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA 2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents 3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for. 4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland
Cant agree with 4 - if they want to leave it's entirely their call
Yes - along the lines of the most recent referendum "Leave vs Remain".
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Amazing results for Tories in Wales, took 6 from Labour and came very close to taking 8. A very unexpected result in Gower, where the Brexit Party had a massive surge to get the same share as the tories. Anyone know why they surged in this seat specifically so much?
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.
Correct - apart from the fact that Labour was and is, not a remain party. Back to the abacus.
Maybe, maybe not. If we had PR though we would at least be heading for a second referendum at least.
However it is over for the time being and we will just have to see how Johnson performs, good luck to him, I hope he rules as one nation liberal and opts for a sensible deal with the the EU. I hope he privately acknowledges that his huge majority was really courtesy of our election system rather than the voters. He actually added only around 300k votes to Theresa May's total.
Yes and Boris can tell the ERG to STFU when they realise the ECJ will rule on these agreed minimum standards. Unless all the new MPs are Brexit headbangers as well.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.9
Between those two yep, but Bradford South was nearly 25% seeing lab to LD!
Sadly Bradford South was garbled in this tweet, which they haven't issued a retraction/correction for (they made a few other mistakes which they did amend!):
I think my seat of Bassetlaw might have had the biggest swing @ 18.4%.
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.9
Between those two yep, but Bradford South was nearly 25% seeing lab to LD!
Sadly Bradford South was garbled in this tweet, which they haven't issued a retraction/correction for (they made a few other mistakes which they did amend!):
Anyone with a parody Momentumite account might as well pack up now.
It`s a psychosis - their brains don`t work along logical lines.
Thing is, she is half right. One of the reasons for Labour's constructive ambiguity on Brexit was its voters in the South were Remainers but in the North were Leavers.
Random musings: 1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes... 2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again? 3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away? 4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something? 5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat. 6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues. 7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood. 8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly. 9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.
We are now waiting to see what Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters are going to do next. My assumption is that the left wing of the Labour party will decide to fight on to the bitter end. I think that essentially Labour has made its choice and it will never go back to being a centrist party. The UK now faces a very long drawn out replacement of Labour by the Liberal Democrats as the main party on the left wing of politics, which could take 10 - 30 years.
In this election Labour has lost 59 seats or -22.5% compared to 2017. The Liberal Democrats have lost 1 seat (without St. Ives) or -8.5% compared to 2017. They are slowly closing the gap between them and Labour. I think this process will continue year after year in local, mayoral, regional and general elections, but it will be slow until the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour nationally.
The Corbyn cult may be making an all too predictable choice to dig a deeper hole but the LDs need to make one too.
The biggest swing that I have so far seen against an incumbent party was the 17.5% swing from LD to Con in 58% Leave-voting North Norfolk.
If a centrist left leaning alternative to Labour is to emerge, with broad enough support to win at a GE, it needs to appeal across the Brexit spectrum and it can only effectively do that by accepting that Brexit is now done and dusted and should be regarded as a non-issue for the foreseeable future.
Yes that may be the case currently. However Brexit has not happened yet. The government now has to implement Brexit, which is a different matter compared to winning an election or a referendum. Things may look different by 2024 when the consequences of leaving the EU are beginning to be evaluated.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says: If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Correct. Leslie, gapes and Soubry lost as Change UK candidates the latter 2 saved deposits. Chuka, Berger, Funny tinge lost for the LDs along with Wollaston. Allen, Ryan, and one other who's name escapes me stood down and Gavin Shuker got a creditable 9.3% as an indy in Luton (better than the 3 changers)
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
Putney?
Yes - Putney - you`re right. That`s saved me a few quid then.
Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women.)
Labour are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).
Random musings: 1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes... 2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again? 3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away? 4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something? 5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat. 6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues. 7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood. 8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly. 9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
On 8, there was footage posted earlier. She slinked off, refusing to speak. A total coward.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
I do wonder about this. Cummings hates the ERG, but many of this new intake will be disproportionately pro-ERG. The Brexit Party can also still return, looking at the spread of their voting.
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.
Can someone list the LibDem performances in the Mike Smithson letters constituencies.
Can someone list the turnout change in the 'endless youth in a queue to vote' constituencies.
On queues to vote. There may be another explanation. The size of the queue is partly a function of the number of staff handing out ballot papers. Now I come to think of it, at the polling station where I had to queue yesterday, there was just one pair as opposed to two in previous elections. Maybe local authority cuts created an illusion of greater turnout.
I nearly took Ladrokes 6/4 that "Labour would win no seat that they didn`t win in 2017" a few times - but didn`t. Does anyone know whether that would have been a winner?
Labour are deluded if they think this was just about Brexit.
A better leader and a credible retail offer to those Leave areas would have helped . But it’s fanciful to say Labour going full on Leave wouldn’t have caused them immense damage in many other areas .
The policy was a fudge but the least worst option but needed a better messenger and a more credible manifesto .
Random musings: 1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes... 2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again? 3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away? 4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something? 5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat. 6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues. 7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood. 8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly. 9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
Owen Jones was on ITV, undergoing a series of personal tragedies on live television.
There were a few places where cameras hadn't been sent - Blyth Valley was another - where presumably the television networks thought them just too improbable losses.
Jezza sixth in line for father of the house! Peter bottomley (1975) Barry Sheerman (1979) Harriet Harman (1982) Edward leigh (1983 for the rest) Nick brown Jezza
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
I prefer mine 1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day 1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day Total profit £100
How much profit did you miss out on by not using betfair which was offering 1.53 and higher at one point?
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says: If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.
There's a Catch 22 here. You only get to introduce PR if you win FPTP and why change a winning system?
Let's be realistic, Labour isn't going to be winning a majority anytime soon. Not with the SNP cleaning up in Scotland again (to be fair I did predict that!),
I'm not Labour but, given that perspective, I think Labour's first priority is Scotland. The Independence debate is going to make this election look like a tea party. It has to find some way of stopping that or at least slowing it down. For what it's worth, I reckon that helping to push BREXIT though asap so that the Scots are definitely looking at rejoining rather than staying in, looks a viable strategy.
Labour got killed in Scotland for opposing independence and looking like the Tories' poodle. I would recommend that Labour do nothing to stand in the way of Scottish independence, which I think is now much more likely than not. Scotland and E&W no longer form a single political culture, the Scots should have the freedom to build a modern, European social democratic country on their own. Left wing unionism is dead.
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.
I would say the opposite: as long as Scotland returns mostly SNP rather than Labour MPs, Labour is more likely to win in E&W after Scottish independence than in E&W within the UK. Fears of Labour being in the SNP's 'pocket' (aka English nationalist antipathy towards Scotland) hold Labour back in England and will only go away once Scotland is independent. It's only sentimental attachment to the union, and in Scotland a tribal resentment towards the SNP, that prevents Labour embracing independence.
Jezza sixth in line for father of the house! Peter bottomley (1975) Barry Sheerman (1979) Harriet Harman (1982) Edward leigh (1983 for the rest) Nick brown Jezza
You've raised a "Kind Hearts and Coronets" scenario in my mind. Harriet Harman shot down in a hot-air balloon over Berkeley Square?
Random musings: 1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes... 2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again? 3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away? 4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something? 5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat. 6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues. 7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood. 8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly. 9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
Owen Jones was on ITV, undergoing a series of personal tragedies on live television.
There were a few places where cameras hadn't been sent - Blyth Valley was another - where presumably the television networks thought them just too improbable losses.
Most of the first hour post exit poll on BBC was Naga in Blyth Valley seeing if they'd break the record for earliest declaration, then the winner's speech.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.
If Corbyn had resigned in 2017 Momentum would have a point. But this is Labour's worst defeat in years, it is astonishing to me that they just want to carry on.
Social democracy without Corbyn baggage - fine. But they've gone too radical.
Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah Paula Sherriff Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Sue Hayman Laura Pidcock I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
I prefer mine 1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day 1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day Total profit £100
How much profit did you miss out on by not using betfair which was offering 1.53 and higher at one point?
I got 1.66 and then again at 1.62 yesterday. And I didn`t close them out, though my finger hovered over the cash out button.
It's right that many things they complain about, like brexit and the media, are all very well, but its incumbent on the party and leader to overcome that.
And does it say ian Murray is the former labour mp? I thought he won.
Now watching the BBC coverage from 10pm last night. I was too nervous to watch it at the time. (Too nervous to do anything but watch the financial markets between 9.55 and 10.05, when I came back here to see Ave_It and Francis Urquhart's exultations). No other event comes anywhere close for drama. Will the country face a period of uncertainty, further deadlock, or will it go to hell in a handcart? BONG! Even though I obviously no know the result, I felt sick with anticipation watching it. Such a massive feeling of relief. Corbyn and McDonnell nowhere near the levers of power.
Ooh, they've wheeled Priti Patel out now. She's upped her game since I last saw her.
Naga Munchetty now. Gone right off her since I saw her on Richard Osman's house of games.
Greetings to pb.com from the people of 12 hours ago.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.
Oh, I was wrong. It turns out the SNP have won too well
All the MPs must now gather round Sir Peter Bottomley to hear tales of the legendary fall of Wilson and then Callaghan and the night the government fell, as he is the only remaining witness to these events
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.
I suspect there will be big internal struggles to come, even with a big majority, because the Farage spectre is still there for the Tories.
He's waiting in the wings for the Tories to tack back to a softer Brexit again, as usual.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
Or departed in greater numbers, earlier, about the time of the Owen Smith challenge.
The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.
Oh, I was wrong. It turns out the SNP have won too well
Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women.)
Labour are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.
Wouldn't take long and wouldn't involve too many fingers either!
Comments
Dent Coad
SWINSON COME ON
However it is over for the time being and we will just have to see how Johnson performs, good luck to him, I hope he rules as one nation liberal and opts for a sensible deal with the the EU. I hope he privately acknowledges that his huge majority was really courtesy of our election system rather than the voters. He actually added only around 300k votes to Theresa May's total.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205357627770888193
The correct result is quite different!
LAB: 46.3% (-8.2)
CON: 40.4% (+2.2)
BRX: 7.1% (+7.1)
LDEM: 3.8% (+2.5)
Turnout 57.6%
Jess Phillips holding on to almost all her vote share is small piece of good news for Labour's future.
Agree about Jo Swinson. Great person who made some bad calls and had no luck.
Can someone list the turnout change in the 'endless youth in a queue to vote' constituencies.
Chuka
Soubry
Basically all those who thought that they knew better.
2) Dodds
3) Goldsmith
1. Chris Williamson's lost deposit and mere hundreds of votes...
2. What happened to Amol Rajan and his social media updates, shown early on BBC and never seen again?
3. No Owen Jones, Bastani or Blakeney on BBC coverage - hopefully they will fade away?
4. Last time Mark Francois is allowed in front of a national TV camera if Boris has any sense. Berlin Wall = Red Wall, was he on something?
5. V Sad Berger didn't win the F & GG seat.
6. John Mann, Ian Austin, John Woodcock et al should get humble apologies from their former moderate colleagues.
7. Twitter really is pointless for judging the public mood.
8. Corbyn protege Pidcock goes yet with no TV cameras even there to capture it seemingly.
9. OGH seemingly voted Labour after everything that he'd said before about Corbyn's A/S. Or did I get that wrong?
Good
Bloody well done Aaron! Ended over a hundred years of Labour representation for NUL.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
Off to a good start uniting the nation I see.
I guess that one nation is England.
https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons
Conservative: 364 MPs
Men 277
Women 87
Labour: 202 MPs
Men 98
Women 104
SNP: 48 MPs
Men 32
Women 16
Lib Dem: 11 MPs
Men 4
Women 7
DUP 8 MPs
Men 7
Women 1
SF 7 MPs
Men 5
Women 2
Had thought that the Tories might have a bit more female representation, given the gender differential in polling with Labour maybe they would benefit from more of a feminine touch? (Only 24% women.)
Labour are for the first time ever more than 50% women (just, at 51%).
An utter genius.
A better leader and a credible retail offer to those Leave areas would have helped . But it’s fanciful to say Labour going full on Leave wouldn’t have caused them immense damage in many other areas .
The policy was a fudge but the least worst option but needed a better messenger and a more credible manifesto .
There were a few places where cameras hadn't been sent - Blyth Valley was another - where presumably the television networks thought them just too improbable losses.
Peter bottomley (1975)
Barry Sheerman (1979)
Harriet Harman (1982)
Edward leigh (1983 for the rest)
Nick brown
Jezza
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1205436927765368832?s=20
There will be lots of blaming ahead. And it will punch down and out.
He was the future once.
Social democracy without Corbyn baggage - fine. But they've gone too radical.
Laura Pidcock
I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
And does it say ian Murray is the former labour mp? I thought he won.
Such a massive feeling of relief. Corbyn and McDonnell nowhere near the levers of power.
Ooh, they've wheeled Priti Patel out now. She's upped her game since I last saw her.
Naga Munchetty now. Gone right off her since I saw her on Richard Osman's house of games.
Greetings to pb.com from the people of 12 hours ago.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1205258943628562445
The fools.
He's waiting in the wings for the Tories to tack back to a softer Brexit again, as usual.
This will win them back.
Pidcock, Pidcock, Pidcock
It's just a worse idea to refuse it forever when theres such demand for it. Interesting to see how Boris plays it.
And this is a winner too.
https://visual.parliament.uk/research/visualisations/general-election-2019-constituencies/?map=gender