Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.
It's nonsense though, unless anyone really did believe -- as oppose to claim to believe -- that Corbyn in Downing Street would lead to a new Kristallnacht or even to the sort of physical and sometimes armed assaults of Jews that have been seen recently in France, Germany and the United States.
What is this, English exceptionalism on steroids? How do you think you get to kristallnachts and pogroms and final solutions, except from a gradual start with a bit of bants about being careful with money?
You don't mean it of course. You connived at antisemitism and lost. You were called out at that the time. Don't double down by pretending that now it's all over we can all have a laugh and admit that that the warnings were just a partisan ploy. They were not.
What are you talking about? I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party; I neither connived nor lost. And there really were claims that Jews were afraid of new pogroms and that half would need to flee Britain. Is there a problem with antisemitism? Yes. It it on the same scale as in other countries? Nowhere near. And from anyone else, those facile comparisons with Nazi Germany would themselves be called out as antisemitic.
What also must disappoint me is how despite all the signs, the youth vote just did not turn out. I have to conclude that must also be down to Corbyn.
On that point probably not the case. They never do 'turn out' - parlty simple fecklessness but largely at their age other priorities can so easily take up their time - in my case my biggest one was always getting laid - oh actually that hasn't changed too much! :0
Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.
It's a mistake to think Labour as we know it would be perpetually in government under PR, and most likely Labour would fracture into several parties in a PR system! (There's some fancy political science behind why PR supports more parties than FPTP, and Labour's internal coalition from working-class socialism to the "brahmins" would clearly be ripe for rupturing when there's a system both could compete independently in. FPTP enforces sticking together because you get punished if you try breaking out on your own.)
Perhaps that is exactly what needs to happen.
I didn't ever predict a Labour split or crisis in 2015 - but I can honestly see one now.
I believe Greens would be better off as part of the Labour Party.
We needs the Lib Dems. When they start accumulating votes it's general time to copy their policies to keep in the centre ground.
Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.
We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.
Labour must also back PR - and fast. That must be one of their new policies.
They only get to implement that if they win an election though! (Even if they do so as part of a coalition, that suggests they're within touching distance of being able to do so alone.) And if they can get a FPTP majority then they can actually implement their policies as they wish, rather than bending as a coalition requires.
It's a mistake to think Labour as we know it would be perpetually in government under PR, and most likely Labour would fracture into several parties in a PR system! (There's some fancy political science behind why PR supports more parties than FPTP, and Labour's internal coalition from working-class socialism to the "brahmins" would clearly be ripe for rupturing when there's a system both could compete independently in. FPTP enforces sticking together because you get punished if you try breaking out on your own.)
There's a Catch 22 here. You only get to introduce PR if you win FPTP and why change a winning system?
Let's be realistic, Labour isn't going to be winning a majority anytime soon. Not with the SNP cleaning up in Scotland again (to be fair I did predict that!),
I'm not Labour but, given that perspective, I think Labour's first priority is Scotland. The Independence debate is going to make this election look like a tea party. It has to find some way of stopping that or at least slowing it down. For what it's worth, I reckon that helping to push BREXIT though asap so that the Scots are definitely looking at rejoining rather than staying in, looks a viable strategy.
Labour got killed in Scotland for opposing independence and looking like the Tories' poodle. I would recommend that Labour do nothing to stand in the way of Scottish independence, which I think is now much more likely than not. Scotland and E&W no longer form a single political culture, the Scots should have the freedom to build a modern, European social democratic country on their own. Left wing unionism is dead.
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.
It's nonsense though, unless anyone really did believe -- as oppose to claim to believe -- that Corbyn in Downing Street would lead to a new Kristallnacht or even to the sort of physical and sometimes armed assaults of Jews that have been seen recently in France, Germany and the United States.
What is this, English exceptionalism on steroids? How do you think you get to kristallnachts and pogroms and final solutions, except from a gradual start with a bit of bants about being careful with money?
You don't mean it of course. You connived at antisemitism and lost. You were called out at that the time. Don't double down by pretending that now it's all over we can all have a laugh and admit that that the warnings were just a partisan ploy. They were not.
What are you talking about? I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party; I neither connived nor lost. And there really were claims that Jews were afraid of new pogroms and that half would need to flee Britain. Is there a problem with antisemitism? Yes. It it on the same scale as in other countries? Nowhere near. And from anyone else, those facile comparisons with Nazi Germany would themselves be called out as antisemitic.
I guess the Tories never did stop political point scoring over racism. Now they've won, I bet that inquiry disappears quickly.
Because no one could really *mind* about what happened to, say, Anne Frank, and be genuinely concerned that it might happen again, right? Must be political point scoring. Must be.
I am glad you lost.
Oh come on, the Tories don't give a crap about racism, that much has been clear throughout the campaign.
That's not to say Labour doesn't have massive problems. It does - and the next leader needs to sort it out. Because Labour has fucked it and ceased to be an anti-racist party.
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Me too, that 1.4 on the Con Maj that was around for about a fortnight. Elections always feel better with winnings as well as a good result for the country!
Reflections on the night: My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?
We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.
They have the choice of Ed Davey or noone
I think layla might want to fight him for that prize
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.
Fuck, I had put a bet on SNP under 47.5 seats - I thought I had done 48.5. Bollocks. I think that basically knocks me down to break even. Will have to do a full totalisation later.
Technically they are 47 because they withdrew the whip from the anti-semite who won Gordon Brown's old seat.
As he was on the ballot paper as SNP he settles as a SNP win. Clarified that with Ladbrokes a coupe of days ago.
Worth a try...
Next attempt is to get one of the SCon wins struck off and then I'm well up as my SCon 1-5 bet comes in.
Reflections on the night: My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?
They can, but neither Momentum as currently constituted, or Balls and Johnson, are the future.
In 2019 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories.
The margin is around 2% for GB only. Given my post of 8th December below, I am formally claiming copyright of "Phil's Previous Election Polling Overcorrection Hypothesis" henceforth to be known as PPEPOH.
In 2005 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2010 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
In 2015 the polls overstated Labour relative to the Tories
In 2017 the polls overstated the Tories relative to Labour
Spot a pattern?
If Labour is overstated relative to the Tories in 2019, I claim copyright of Phil's "previous election polling overcorrection hypothesis". i.e. Polling companies tend to correct for errors in the previous election, and are vulnerable to the questionable assumption that the factors causing the errors at the last election will still be relevant at the next one.
We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.
They have the choice of Ed Davey or noone
I think layla might want to fight him for that prize
I personally have no strong feelings one way or the other. The essence of my point was that Independence meant Scottish constituencies were no longer available to be won back. It's very hard to see Labour as viable contenders in a UK minus Scotland.
Dunno about that. Few democracies stay one-party states forever. A Labour Party that evolves to shift its political centre of gravity closer to that which works for England and Wales, and which is freed of the limitation of making sure its messages play okay to a very different audience north of the border, would surely become competitive over time. Potentially quite quickly, on the "it only takes one big-enough government cock-up" basis.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
lol, one candidate who didn't win in a tweet said that. Every single piece of SNP election literature on the other hand said Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands
A curious night. Whilst Boris has done little to deserve his mini-landslide, it does at least mean that the the Tories have now been stripped of all excuses for not delivering the absolute optimal Brexit/European settlement. Gina Miller, Bercow, Grieve, Phil Hammond - all those bogeymen are now gone. It's now down to Boris and Boris alone. We will monitor his progress with interest.
Johnson has fairlty quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies fairly quickly. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
Yes, interesting to hear George Osborne last night. He was basically saying that the Tories would need to morph into the party of intervention, regulation and big-state spending: i.e. the Labour Party. Will Boris be able to pull this off?
We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.
They have the choice of Ed Davey or noone
I think layla might want to fight him for that prize
The last thing we want is a leadership election. Ed Davey takes over Moran as deputy and see how it goes. Watching Hughes tell the world how useless we were is not helping. Go back to basics concentrate on the up and coming elections advocate close EU cooperation and again see how it plays out. Can Johnson go five years without a scandal? Who knows so let thing play out. Let Labour put in Long Bailey or Rayner and wait and see.
We do need to bear in mind that Labour have lost 4 elections under 3 leaders. Brown's New Labour, Miliband's soft Leftism and Corbynite Marxism have all failed. They have tried different ideologies already.
The problem for Labour is the same as it was when choosing Miliband over Balls or Corbyn over Cooper. Sober, sensible Social Democracy looks very tired and unappealing compared to the sugar rush of Populism of left and right.
Lid Dems and USA Dems have a similar problem.
LibDems need to elect a new leader not the next PM.
They have the choice of Ed Davey or noone
I think layla might want to fight him for that prize
The last thing we want is a leadership election. Ed Davey takes over Moran as deputy and see how it goes. Watching Hughes tell the world how useless we were is not helping. Go back to basics concentrate on the up and coming elections advocate close EU cooperation and again see how it plays out. Can Johnson go five years without a scandal? Who knows so let thing play out. Let Labour put in Long Bailey or Rayner and wait and see.
At some point the Lib Dems need to decide a position on Rejoin. Probably post-Brexit. That'll be a big call though, not just a wait-and-see thing.
Something of a disadvantage to the Lib Dems that leaving the EU means no more Euro Elections where they benefit from the PR (in both senses of "PR")!
Reflections on the night: My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?
Jess Phillips is high risk but understands modern communication. She isnt clearly either leftist or Blairite so has a blank canvas that can possibly appeal to both sides in the same way Johnson managed to keep some tory wets and one nationers on board with the ERG.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Morning all. I had around 3 hours sleep, and the caffeine is starting to kick in, so I am ready to take on the first day of the Bozo Utopia.
It occurred to me earlier that under the new rules it is possible that nobody makes it onto the Labour leadership ballot. Gridlock between PLP and the unions.
On my patch Philip Davies increased his majority, naturally. Glad I didn't waste my time pounding the pavements.
This is the kind of thing a decent new Labour leader needs to exploit.
Time to get rid of Channel 4
It was already effective got rid of as both a politically more radical and artistically and intellectually more ambitious channel by the Broadcasting Act 1990. All that remains is Channel 4 news.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Well lets hope so. And its perfectly plausible, with Johnson I dont think anyone knows what we are going to get, possibly not even himself!
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
As for my nowcast: CON 364 LAB 196 (inc speaker) SNP 43 LD 25 GRN 1 PC 3 NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
I prefer mine 1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day 1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day Total profit £100
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Good work!
Thanks CR.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA 2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents 3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for. 4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland
We are now waiting to see what Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters are going to do next. My assumption is that the left wing of the Labour party will decide to fight on to the bitter end. I think that essentially Labour has made its choice and it will never go back to being a centrist party. The UK now faces a very long drawn out replacement of Labour by the Liberal Democrats as the main party on the left wing of politics, which could take 10 - 30 years.
In this election Labour has lost 59 seats or -22.5% compared to 2017. The Liberal Democrats have lost 1 seat (without St. Ives) or -8.5% compared to 2017. They are slowly closing the gap between them and Labour. I think this process will continue year after year in local, mayoral, regional and general elections, but it will be slow until the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour nationally.
The Corbyn cult may be making an all too predictable choice to dig a deeper hole but the LDs need to make one too.
The biggest swing that I have so far seen against an incumbent party was the 17.5% swing from LD to Con in 58% Leave-voting North Norfolk.
If a centrist left leaning alternative to Labour is to emerge, with broad enough support to win at a GE, it needs to appeal across the Brexit spectrum and it can only effectively do that by accepting that Brexit is now done and dusted and should be regarded as a non-issue for the foreseeable future.
Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
Exactly what Osborne said last night: forget tax breaks for the billionaires in the first budget, helicopter money into Workington.
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says: If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
The epic KLF song that was posted here yesterday needs to be remixed as 'it's Tory, up north' with its Jerusalem ending fitting even better now I suggest?
I guess the Tories never did stop political point scoring over racism. Now they've won, I bet that inquiry disappears quickly.
Because no one could really *mind* about what happened to, say, Anne Frank, and be genuinely concerned that it might happen again, right? Must be political point scoring. Must be.
I am glad you lost.
I try not to get over-excited about meaningless political antics these days, but I have to say that you defile Anne Frank's name by dragging her into your sordid little partisan lies.
Corbyn showed zero leadership on Brexit from day one. He ceded the whole territory to Boris. He could not dismantle the bullshit that was and is "get Brexit done". My not choosing a direction he caused this. He was boxed into a Hobsons choice and ultimately even got that wrong by trying to triangulate a binary issue.
This is nothing less than a complete failure of leadership and fear from someone who only his true believers thought could be PM.
That can be overstated. The politics and presentation were shockingly bad but the basic position, renegotiate and then decide whether or not to remain neutral in a referendum was perfectly defensible. It was the position of Wilson and more pertinently it was the position of the Conservative government led by David Cameron. It was defensible but not defended.
I never once heard a Labour politician say it was similar to Cameron's position. It was an easy reply to a difficult position to explain.
That is what is unforgivable and inexplicable. It's not the extremism of the shadowy figures around Corbyn, it's their sheer bloody incompetence.
I personally think that is their one redeeming feature
Zack Saber Jr is a national treasure. Possibly the best profession al wrestler in the world. His Promos blaming Boris Johnson for wrestling losses are superb.
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Mine is a mixed bag. About £70 profit in all, bolstered by the big bet I placed on Sarah Olney. It motivated me yesterday as Ied the GOTV in Barnes. I was up for 25 hours on the trot. Shattered today.
My model has gone in for major repairs. Not sure it's repairable. I have 5 years. Probably get a new one.
You did well.
I can’t talk. I spent most of the the campaign crapping my pants.
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
Good work!
Thanks CR.
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA 2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents 3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for. 4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland
Cant agree with 4 - if they want to leave it's entirely their call
The sound you are hearing is the sounds of a hundred "The SNP focus on independence in this election campaign has hurt them" think pieces being ditched.
Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Me too, that 1.4 on the Con Maj that was around for about a fortnight. Elections always feel better with winnings as well as a good result for the country!
Actually, I didn’t really play that market heavily as I feared a hung parliament right to the end.
If we have a recession in the next five years, the Tories will have to own it. No point blaming Labour anymore.
By the time Labour have even a sniff of power, tories will have been in charge for 19 years. Think about that. The tory majority is so big, it will take two elections atleast to overturn it.
Comments
We needs the Lib Dems. When they start accumulating votes it's general time to copy their policies to keep in the centre ground.
That's not to say Labour doesn't have massive problems. It does - and the next leader needs to sort it out. Because Labour has fucked it and ceased to be an anti-racist party.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities like the people of Redcar voting for the party who closed their steelworks and literally broke their town. When they eventually realise the EU aren't to blame for their problems, I fear for the British polity as the (in their view) betrayal by the left and then betrayal by the right leads towards very dark things...
But thats a way off. The Tories have at least a decade in front of them to reshape the country as they see fit. If Johnson has a brain he will spend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
My feelings: a feeling of relief. 9.58 last night I was feeling sick; as anxious as I've ever felt about British politics. I couldn't watch the news; couldn't even follow the wild rumours on here. I was waiting for the news by following GBP:USD. Anyway, relief. Jeremy Cobyn will not be Prime Minister. John McDonnell will not be chancellor. Would they have been as bad as I feared? Would we have become Greece or Venezuela? Would we have become Germany 1932? Would they have changed the UK irrevocably? I don't know. But 'not as bad as Venezuela/1932 Germany' isn't by itself massively encouraging. Anyway - hopefully we'll never know. I've no illusions that we're facing sunlit uplands - but this is a better result than the other alternative.
Psephological: an astonishing night. Blyth Valley, Stoke Central, West Bromwich West, Durham North West. These are seats I never, never thought I would see turn blue. The WWC has turned away from Labour in droves. Corbyn's brand of Labour, at any rate. It shouldn't be surprising - if you don't much appear to like your voters, they won't much like you. But still astonishing for anyone used to how politics in the UK works. Meanwhile, Lab hold all the student seats. And the more middle class the seat, the less aversion to the Labour Party. The youth, with less to lose, have less aversion to Corbynomics. But who would have thought Marxism would be so acceptable in Putney? The middle classes - at least the younger half of that demographic - aren't, as a whole, actually that fased by the far left. This needs watching.
Political: Counter-intuitively, I don't think Brexit was quite as totemic as was made out. Leave/Remain is a cipher for a certain worldview, and is also an indicator or age profile of a seat. Leavers have a worldview which is somewhat antipathetic to Corbyn's Labour (and to be fair actually Miliband's Labour before that). Where do Labour, or the left, go from here? There are lots of thoughtful voices on the left - but will they find a leadership to coalesce around? There doesn't seem much prospect of Labour moderates prising the party out of the hands of Momentum and Len McCluskey. But TIGging didn't work, and joining the Lib Dems didn't work. I'd really like a Labour Party which formed a credible alternative government - watching Ed Balls and Alan Johnson last night reminded you of what Labour were relatively recently. But how can they move forward?
Free broadband would be a good starting point...
The margin is around 2% for GB only. Given my post of 8th December below, I am formally claiming copyright of "Phil's Previous Election Polling Overcorrection Hypothesis" henceforth to be known as PPEPOH.
But grabbed below with Ladbrokes around 2am and won on top one:
Tory Majority Size 71-80 13/2
13/12/2019 @ 01.53
Tory Majority Size 61-70 10/1
13/12/2019 @ 01.54
https://twitter.com/RTSportNews/status/1205250707986755584?s=20
Con + 11.9, Lab -24.9
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7787007/Jeremy-Corbyns-tenure-Labour-leader-looks-over.html
Come on you moderates!!
It will make happy viewing over Christmas.
Something of a disadvantage to the Lib Dems that leaving the EU means no more Euro Elections where they benefit from the PR (in both senses of "PR")!
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
https://twitter.com/SalmaYaqoob/status/1205426773506318336
It occurred to me earlier that under the new rules it is possible that nobody makes it onto the Labour leadership ballot. Gridlock between PLP and the unions.
On my patch Philip Davies increased his majority, naturally. Glad I didn't waste my time pounding the pavements.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/15/nicola-sturgeon-independence-labour-scottish-referendum-snp
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
What does PB think?
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1205426473131225088?s=20
Doesnt matter any more as its going to happen on Johnsons rubbish deal now.
1 bet of £150 at 2/5 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
1 bet of £120 at 1/3 with Betfred on Con OM and posted here on the day
Total profit £100
Whilst feeling sad about LDs, I`m relieved that the Corbyn/McDonnell threat has gone and that CP can get that Brexit albatross from off our neck.
Brexit apart, this is my initial wish list for Boris;
1) Repeal the FTPA
2) Legislate (or some such) that Bercow`s speakership shenanighans do not set precedents
3) Row back postal voting rules so that only in exceptional circumstances, i.e. before Blair changed the rules, can a postal vote be applied for.
4) Confirm that any future Scottish Ref will be voted on by all UK citizens not just those that reside in Scotland
This morning they are screaming it's a rigged election
The biggest swing that I have so far seen against an incumbent party was the 17.5% swing from LD to Con in 58% Leave-voting North Norfolk.
If a centrist left leaning alternative to Labour is to emerge, with broad enough support to win at a GE, it needs to appeal across the Brexit spectrum and it can only effectively do that by accepting that Brexit is now done and dusted and should be regarded as a non-issue for the foreseeable future.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructure revolution for this country. Now is the time to invest in Northern Powerhouse Rail, and the Midlands Rail Hub, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
Just wanted to point out ELBOW predicted vote-shares 43.1 and 33.7, so not too far out, compared with 2015 and 2017
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
I can’t talk. I spent most of the the campaign crapping my pants.
Only squeezed out £70 of profit from it.
(Congrats to you both, btw)