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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
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I have been somewhat distracted all night in a political dream seeing labour seat after seat fall live on tv
I need to get some breakfast now but so pleased Corbyn has been binned
As ever, PB is a pleasure on election night. It's a shame we will have to wait five years for another one now.
I'm genuinely devastated about this - but I promised I wouldn't run away so here I am.
My thoughts are these:
Corbyn should have resigned in 2017 on a high and Starmer should have taken over. He could have forged a coalition of some kind in Parliament for what he wanted, a second referendum.
But since that didn't happen, Labour's biggest errors have been Brexit and Corbyn. No surprises there of course.
But I have to be honest and conclude there are no easy answers here.
I think it's absolutely indisputable that a better leader like Starmer would have done a lot better in Southern England than Corbyn.
But in the North? A more pro-Remain, pro second referendum leader? I cannot see it.
So therefore I have to conclude, this result was probably inevitable. Perhaps a HP was possible under a better leader - but I can't see a Labour victory.
Now a Labour victory seems years off. I don't even think Blair's 1997 landslide would undo this victory (has anyone done the numbers on that?) and so Labour is probably due two more leaders between now and 2030.
But most of all it's the poor and the disabled I'm going to worry about and the young people that are going to be ignored by this Government. They didn't vote for them - and the Tories don't need them, so it will be more of the same for them. For that though, it's really my (although in fairness I'm not a Labour member) and the Labour membership's fault. We made this mistake, we need to own it, hold our hands up and learn from it.
So for me that leaves this:
Corbynism is over, it's done.
The entirety of Corbyn's team must go immediately.
The next leader has to be somebody either not related to Corbyn or not a true believer. Again that leaves Starmer. But the concern with him is that he's very "London" and not especially charismatic. Not at all convinced he's going to win back those Northern seats.
The next leader needs an actually decent PR team and preferably should understand how the media works. Sometimes you have to play the game.
I genuinely believe that a soft-left manifesto, promising to deal with climate change, action on tuition fees, fixing the railways, sorting out austerity and housing, can win. But that's as radical as Labour can go, the electorate don't want more. And Labour needs to accept that.
Really there are no easy answers. But the one saving grace as even Johnson acknowledged, is that these new voters are temporary at present. He has a lot to do to keep them - and if Labour is actually decent again, I passionately believe they'll come back.
So I'm sorry to all the people I've let down by backing Corbyn. I hold my hands up, I also hold my hands up for calling the election wrong as I promised I would.
All the best to you all.
https://twitter.com/VotePhilWilson/status/1205371693004402688?s=20
The size of this majority all but secures it though.
The longer they leave it, the fainter the memory of this loss and the weaker the chance of getting a leader who isn't a far left loon.
The question is who will lead the Labour party back to this more moderate vision? It's hard to see at the moment. You seem quite clear eyed about it all but I fear many Labour members will want the comfort blanket of another hard left leader.
In many ways it is good that Corbyn stays on a while, it will give Labourites the time to process this shellacking and consider that a more moderate leader might be a wise choice.
The frustrating thing is there will be no more votes in "I told you so" than there were in "you're making a mistake." Whatever happens with Brexit (and it will either be a disaster or BINO, IMHO) most Leave voters will go to their graves thinking they made the right choice.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1205373437025378304
Also Aaron won so we have an MP on PB again.
Begun, the labour war has..
I think there are elements of Brexit absolutely that caused this destruction, so the Labour response isn't entirely wrong. But they don't seem to have figured out that that Brexit policy was under the watch of Corbyn.
He should have stuck to his guns and backed Leave. That would have been less terrible - but ultimately he was screwed from the moment he didn't go after 2017.
Labour would have been in Government by now had he gone then.
Real change they said, well they were right. It's just five more years of the Tories. This result is just absolutely crazy for Labour - and it's difficult to see how they come back. Of course they will, Blair did. But it took a long time.
He wrote his memoirs too soon.
That's not trying to shift the blame - but Swinson made a truly terrible decision. Perhaps the worst of any leader in modern times.
They said there would be one short serving leader, turns out it was Swinson.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1205407362867220480?s=20
In the Campaign shout out to local press & TV for genuine scoops and backing them up (Yorkshire Post) and commissioning useful polling (Courier, Scotland). Did better at doorstepping leading candidates than the national TV. Thats the last time they're seen as a 'push over'.
CON 364
LAB 196 (inc speaker)
SNP 43
LD 25
GRN 1
PC 3
NI 18
Con majority 78
Posted on November 18th. I think I did pretty well!
Labour and Conservatives back PR when in opposition and oppose it when in power
*Well when I am not unbearably smug.
That was the advantage won this election. Whichever way Labour jumped, the disappointed side had somewhere safe to go. That’s the difference. My staying neutral, Corbyn could not attack the Tory position. This was how Corbyn lost it,
Tone deaf then, tone deaf now.
Although I never supported Corbyn as leader I think it's good that passionate voices on the Left like you are involved in the party. I hope that more pragmatic voices will now also get more of a hearing so we can build a winning platform for 2024 (by which time I will be almost 50 and will only have seen one Labour leader win an election).
AVE IT!
This is exactly what I mean.
They need to accept it's a combination of Brexit, leader and policies.
Less radical but still left wing (as that is where the Tories have gone), better leader, don't back rejoin. You're onto a winner!
They don't even need another Blairite, they can be more left wing than him!
Take the chances you have! Momentum and Corbynites need to wake up or fuck off quite frankly!
I still think there was space for a soft Brexit fudge back when we had the Boles and Clarke amendments. Anyway that's all ancient history now.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205299140290322432
The Labour Youth obsession with abolishing tuition fees is daft as.
Was at a dinner party around Camden Town a few weeks back, all youngish graduates saddled with student debt and massively pro Labour in the hopes of some kind of write-off. Moaned and moaned and moaned about it. All earning good money in professional London jobs and only affected by the fees in the sense that they were above the income threshold therefore actually having to make contributions to pay it off. Had they been in low-income jobs, they would be making no contributions and would essentially have got their uni education for fee. Incidentally everyone at the party had postgraduate qualifications, some multiple. Nobody in that social circle had taken a path other than than uni, done the unthinkable by doing something other than A-levels at 16, etc. Even on PB, people constantly interchange "young people" with "students/graduates". But the A-level-then-uni path is a minority sport in this country. Lazy conflation.
Truth is, the people who would benefit from scrapping tuition fees are high-income graduates. Low-income graduates wouldn't benefit at all, nor the non-university educated. Bearing in mind how Labour already have a good grip on the highly-qualified young professional class, messianic tuition fee reforms aren't going to open up the path to a previously untold Labour victory. People who seriously like that idea, enough for it to sway their vote, largely vote Labour anyway. Regardless of the merits of the tuition fee/student loan system, it's client politics and basically introspective.
The fact it's a popular position within the Labour party has a lot to do with the fact young professional graduates make up a big chunk of the membership and it is, quite naturally, their concern - but that's not the same as figuring out what policy offering you need to attract, say, a twenty-something technician from Workington who did BTEC instead of A-levels and earns above minimum wage but less than the national median. That's reaching out to a whole new planet, mysterious and incomprehensible and whose orbit many members will never have glimpsed.
Very sad to see LibDem result though. I feel so sorry for Swinson. Politics is brutal.
Sustained No Deal will make Black Wednesday look like a walk in the park,
The Tories will have a vast new cohort of effectively unprecedented consituencies and voters to satisfy, and huge expectations of Brexit to manage.
I've got huge time for Starmer as an actual grown up, in short supply in the Labour ranks at present. Someone else will emerge eventually. It might be a long road back, but I hope you can find your way back, as a party.
A lovely post CHC and well thought through. I would agree with most everything you say but but would just add a couple of, hopefully, constructive observations
In the time labour need to come to its senses and come forward with policies brexit will have happened and a trade deal, so it is unlikely to be the same arguments as today by a long chalk. Also, remember, Boris is a one nation conservative and as he said today he will address peoples concerns on the NHS, Education, Policing and immigration and especially local investment throughout the blue tide of once labour seats to ensure he does not take his new voters for granted
It is a very ambitious project but he is the most secure PM in the west and is almost certainly favourite to win another term even at this early stage
I would just like to say your dilligence in fighting your corner was impressive and I am pleased you are to continue posting on PB.
All the best
This is the kind of thing a decent new Labour leader needs to exploit.
I said last night (and in 2017) that Corbynism feels like a middle class youth rebellion and I think tuition fees and housing unaffordability (in areas where young graduates gravitate to) is a huge part of it.
A clear Leave policy might have worked - but I can't see any of the alternate Labour leaders from 2017 having gone for that.
It'll be interesting to see where Labour and LibDems go now. Can I put a word in for Olney 😁
It's a mistake to think Labour as we know it would be perpetually in government under PR, and most likely Labour would fracture into several parties in a PR system! (There's some fancy political science behind why PR supports more parties than FPTP, and Labour's internal coalition from working-class socialism to the "brahmins" would clearly be ripe for rupturing when there's a system both could compete independently in. FPTP enforces sticking together because you get punished if you try breaking out on your own.)
It's not that Labour can't be left wing - the Tories have gone to the left (we will see if they follow it through - I am not convinced) - but they just can't be too radical, that's all. A bit less radical than 2017 would be a good, popular manifesto.
I get the POV you're coming from re you don't like the policies - but for me I am arguing purely from the POV of winning. Dealing with tuition fees, the climate, the railways/public transport, housing, with a decent leader who doesn't have baggage, without Brexit, for me is a winning combination. These are all popular things, that whether you agree with them or not, are what Labour needs to offer to have some chance of winning.
I am not convinced that Blairism is going to win back those Northern seats. So there is work to be done there too - but I am not sure at present, what that is.