Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
I'm heading over to spend the weekend with Corbynista family members. I expect to hear a lot about the awful media, fascists and (unfortunately), the Jews.
Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.
Corbyn was 'non cooperatable'. If there isn't such a word there should be. I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.
Corbynistas are furiously blaming BREXIT, but I share your judgement, certainly in respect of the margin, and they are still singing the praises of their giveaway manifesto+ promises. The Tories had their own (sort of) giveaways but it remains to be seen whether they materialise and if so, when.
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
Look where prejudgement has got you. Why do you want to do it again? Deal with it as it is. I voted Tory but I'm no fan of Boris; who knows how his support is made up. I suspect that "better than Corbyn" accounts for a significant chunk and they'll be watching too.
Unfair. "I just fear the poor will get screwed again" is not pre-judgement, it's a genuine concern. Similarly, "if it's a great success I'll say so" is not pre-judgement.
How many on here pre-judged that a Corbyn government would lead to Venezuela-on-Thames?
I've done my sums and I'm up either £2.2K or £2.3K, depending on the final St Ives result. The odd thing is that I didn't really bet very much on the main result. I had a couple of dozen constituency bets, which went very well indeed sometimes at quite good odds, and a sell of the LibDems on the spreads at 45, which was obviously a nice one. I also did very well on SPIN's 25-10-0 markets - I looked for cases where the third-ranked party had little chance of coming second but was priced at between 3 and 6 points in most cases (9.5 in the case of the LibDems in Putney!!) and sold them, making a profit on all the seats I went for. Also turnout, zero seats for the BXP, less than 5 for PC, and Alistair's late tip on SNP under 55.5.
Well done to you. The temptation with political betting is always to back results that you would like to happen. Given what I understand of your political allegiances you must have backed with your head not heart on a night when Remain was losing.
I made a mere £116 on three bets. North Norfolk at 7/4 came in with a 14k Con majority. Bit pissed off still as it was 5/1 early in the campaign when I made a mental note to back it only to never quite get around to it until the odds had dropped. The third on PC seats laid off the second leaving a minimal net profit on those.
The Ynys Mon result is an interesting one. What appears to have happened - though obviously this is highly questionable - is that in the absence of a LD candidate, LD voters voted Conservative, rather than voting PC as they were told - and thereby the Conservatives won the seat from Labour.
Therefore arguably the Remain Alliance could potentially have resulted in a gain for Remain of -1.
Conclusion - you can't simply shuffle voters around among parties! It's not unreasonable to view PC as a very different package to LD and to conclude that the parties are not fungible.
Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
My opinion is the former. They have been moving rightwards since the pits closed. And while Brexit is important to some of these voters, %Leave is more important as an indicator for a much wider set of views on the world. You can't now simply graft leaving the EU onto an otherwise Metropolitan set of views and expect voters to come back.
The social mix is also changing slowly but surely, and it isn't going to reverse. Seats like Clwyd South are actually quite rural with increasing suburbanisation as former pit villages are enlarged by new-build private housing. The umbilical cord to organised Labour has been cut - forever.
Labour's core policy - redistribution with a sledge hammer - will see them lose more seats next time if they don't change tack. The pendulum is broken.
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?
They didn't change the underlying poll numbers of a 55/45 remain split. Corbyn and Swinson, by acting with ridiculous over-confidence, failed to convert that into a victory.
And still a majority of constituencies for leave, I expect, even if 55/45 is taken at face value (as in the referendum, remain was much more concentrated in a few areas).
Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.
What currency are your shares in? Edit - oh yes..£
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
The thing is, if that were to happen, they would also to want to tap into the increased anger and motivation in metropolitan areas too. The opportunity to raise Brexit once again might just be too great.
I've done my sums and I'm up either £2.2K or £2.3K, depending on the final St Ives result. The odd thing is that I didn't really bet very much on the main result. I had a couple of dozen constituency bets, which went very well indeed sometimes at quite good odds, and a sell of the LibDems on the spreads at 45, which was obviously a nice one. I also did very well on SPIN's 25-10-0 markets - I looked for cases where the third-ranked party had little chance of coming second but was priced at between 3 and 6 points in most cases (9.5 in the case of the LibDems in Putney!!) and sold them, making a profit on all the seats I went for. Also turnout, zero seats for the BXP, less than 5 for PC, and Alistair's late tip on SNP under 55.5.
Well done to you. The temptation with political betting is always to back results that you would like to happen. Given what I understand of your political allegiances you must have backed with your head not heart on a night when Remain was losing.
I made a mere £116 on three bets. North Norfolk at 7/4 came in with a 14k Con majority. Bit pissed off still as it was 5/1 early in the campaign when I made a mental note to back it only to never quite get around to it until the odds had dropped. The third on PC seats laid off the second leaving a minimal net profit on those.
There'll be a few underprivileged kids getting some extra toys this year, courtesy of William Hill....
Labour are deluded if they think this was just about Brexit.
A better leader and a credible retail offer to those Leave areas would have helped . But it’s fanciful to say Labour going full on Leave wouldn’t have caused them immense damage in many other areas .
The policy was a fudge but the least worst option but needed a better messenger and a more credible manifesto .
There are millions of people who want a sensible centre left option with realistic economically sound plans.
Unfortunately if momentum labour continue as we have seen here with various tweets they will continue to call voters stupid, racist, unsupportive of young generations when not supporting them. Every time I have come across momentumites it seems like I need to be sent to a re-education camp for not agreeing with everything they say. Contrast with Boris thanking labour voters for lending the conservatives their vote. Can you imagine that from Corbyn?
Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.
Unavoidable. Fair play on being right to be bullish.
But a friend sent me this so why aren't we about to regulate (anti-)social media? The broadcasting media have been regulated for ages to stop them peddling untruths and semi- or fascist propaganda (mostly effective, although BBC 2019 came under fire for its Brexit coverage)
@Stocky obviously I’m using ‘Remain’ as shorthand for wanting to be a member of the EU just like ‘Leave’ will remain shorthand for the opposite after we leave.
I don’t dispute that the WA will pass and we will physically leave.
Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.
A very strong result for the SNP. You may not owe your portfolio gains to them though. (You also avoided Labour nationalising some important Scotland based companies)
Immediate pressure for another IndyRef, or a more careful buildup? (I presume that's the question for you now?)
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
For tactical voting to works it requires a degree of co-operation and affection between the two parties, and to be well targeted at a relatively small number of seats. It isn't going to work when a) Many of the Lib Dems' potential and actual voters regard Corbyn has morally or practically abhorrent, such that they can't vote for him b) Labour supporters still hate the Lib Dems due to coalition, c) Labour, clearly aware they were in deep trouble, fights a fairly vicious (as is their right) defensive campaign to shore up its vote by hammering those flirting with the Lib Dems with messages about possibly doing a deal with the Tories, Swinson's personality, and all sorts.
None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.
Or departed in greater numbers, earlier, about the time of the Owen Smith challenge.
Corbyn is saying his byebyes as leader; his cult are still dominant amongst the membership.
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)
I’m not convinced it would be smart for the Lib Dems to elect another ex-coalition leader.
Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
My opinion is the former. They have been moving rightwards since the pits closed. And while Brexit is important to some of these voters, %Leave is more important as an indicator for a much wider set of views on the world. You can't now simply graft leaving the EU onto an otherwise Metropolitan set of views and expect voters to come back.
The social mix is also changing slowly but surely, and it isn't going to reverse. Seats like Clwyd South are actually quite rural with increasing suburbanisation as former pit villages are enlarged by new-build private housing. The umbilical cord to organised Labour has been cut - forever.
Labour's core policy - redistribution with a sledge hammer - will see them lose more seats next time if they don't change tack. The pendulum is broken.
It's quite a conundrum, having the union relationship to keep on side. But quo vadis trade unionism?
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
The thing is, if that were to happen, they would also to want to tap into the increased anger and motivation in metropolitan areas too. The opportunity to raise Brexit once again might just be too great.
Labour will win the cities for the foreseeable future regardless. Johnson's Tories are toxic for us metropolitan elitists. But I think we have accepted that we don't live in a country that sees itself as European. Personally I will do what I can to keep my own children's vista and opportunities open, that's all you can do now.
That was a major screw up on the part of Plaid Cymru. There is a reason why Nicola Sturgeon is Scotland's FM and Adam Price leads a tiny irrelevant group in Wales. Oh, nice to see the Lib Dems were wiped out in Wales.
Agreed. The Remain Alliance between 3 parties whose voters have little in common was an act of monumental stupidity.
If there was to be a Remain Alliance, it should have been between LibDem and Labour (though of course, Labour did not want that).
Adam Price is lucky that the results in Ceredigion & Arfon went his way. But, Plaid are facing problems. There next set of target seats (Llanelli and Ynys Mon) were a disappointment -- in Llanelli, they even fell behind the Tories.
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
The thing is, if that were to happen, they would also to want to tap into the increased anger and motivation in metropolitan areas too. The opportunity to raise Brexit once again might just be too great.
Labour will win the cities for the foreseeable future regardless. Johnson's Tories are toxic for us metropolitan elitists. But I think we have accepted that we don't live in a country that sees itself as European. Personally I will do what I can to keep my own children's vista and opportunities open, that's all you can do now.
So much hinges on the perception of economic competence. If Brexit is a catastrophe, particularly for those northern areas, Labour shouldn't find it too difficult to reunite metropolitans and left-behinds in outrage, I think.
So much depends on what Cummings has planned for these northern areas.
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
Replace the number "20" with any "X" of your choice, perhaps with the restriction of being 10 or above, and the EU we would be considering rejoining will be very different to the EU that we left. And still evolving. Some of those changes may make rejoining easier (if the likes of Poland and Romania have converged closer to West European living standards, it removes a lot of the migration push-factors) but others may make it much harder (the currency issue, regulatory divergence*, political integration, potentially any political tensions or instability within the EU or on its borders, any further EU expansion into poorer or less stable countries).
There's also the issue of public perception, if the EU is a "bigger thing" we're "part of" then staying in may be an easier sell than (re)entering into an institution which has over time become essentially "other" and "foreign". Potentially being outside the EU might bring more nuance to how we feel about being "European" vs "EUian" - is that particular organisation as attractive to us, rather than a general fuzzy feeling about "European cooperation" (which will persist in other institutional forms)? But we may also have different feelings about what "Britain" means and what role we want it to play in the world, where its place is. Whether that's buccaneering/bloody-minded independence as a middling power, or willingness to become a little cog in a bigger machine, who can say?
My general feeling is that Britain will be less likely to join, the tighter the EU federates and/or the more its structure shows political or economic strain. (A particular issue is how badly a single currency functions without strong, likely centrally-controlled, cross-border fiscal flows of the kind that would appal Germany but are deeply needed in the likes of Greece.) Also less likely the more our trade is with the Rest of the World - for which long-term trend will be upwards. But with so many unknowns it is a big guessing game. Would any of the main three parties strategise the pursuit of this cause as a core goal?
* not just the regulations themselves but the "regulatory culture" - if the Brussels corridors are more dominated by French and German approaches, particularly over a long period of time
I am still trying to put into perspective Jezza's achievements, losing loads of seats which haven't been Tory since before WWII. Not only did Flat Cap Fred vote Tory, but the sounds of it they kicked the polling station doors in a stampede to get their cross down.
St Ives - ballot boxes from the Isles of Scilly delayed by weather
The St Ives declaration will be made at Truro Leisure Centre at 14:30. The Isles of Scilly form part of the St Ives constituency, and the votes from the smaller islands are added to the numbers from the rest of the constituency.
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
The thing is, if that were to happen, they would also to want to tap into the increased anger and motivation in metropolitan areas too. The opportunity to raise Brexit once again might just be too great.
Labour will win the cities for the foreseeable future regardless. Johnson's Tories are toxic for us metropolitan elitists. But I think we have accepted that we don't live in a country that sees itself as European. Personally I will do what I can to keep my own children's vista and opportunities open, that's all you can do now.
But that isn’t even it. It’s not even about feeling European. People still think leaving the EU will solve all the country’s problems. They are going to be sorely disappointed.
I rebalanced somewhat to UK based shares from global during peak no deal panic so though I won't have a paper gain I'll avoid the loss on implied exchange given the rise in sterling now
I see there's wall-to-wall Boris sycophancy on the BBC at present. The poor dears must be terrified to death, and with good reason. Doubtless it will soon be abolished and replaced with 'Boris Gold': a continuous stream of Boris triumphs ending with a three-hour special about the making of the Love Actually election spoof. I for one can't wait!
2010 - general election 2012 - AV referendum 2014 - Scottish referendum 2015 - general election 2016 - brexit referendum 2017 - general election 2019 - general election
we've had a lot of politics in the last 10 years.
but take another look. These are all the post-internet elections and in each and every one, the same side, the one that 'wins the internet' has taken a beating.
Anyway, glad its over. Genuinely. Was worried to the point of physical sickness for most of the last week or so.
It's an unusual situation for a party to win like this from the position it was in after going backwards last time and 9 years into a tory led government. Its quite possible unusual things could occur in reverse next time.
But it wont be easy or guaranteed. But then 14 years into a Tory led government theyd likely not be amazed if they did not make it to 19 years.
Although the years will likely be different as FTPA is getting repealed.
The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
The Ynys Mon result is an interesting one. What appears to have happened - though obviously this is highly questionable - is that in the absence of a LD candidate, LD voters voted Conservative, rather than voting PC as they were told - and thereby the Conservatives won the seat from Labour.
Therefore arguably the Remain Alliance could potentially have resulted in a gain for Remain of -1.
Conclusion - you can't simply shuffle voters around among parties! It's not unreasonable to view PC as a very different package to LD and to conclude that the parties are not fungible.
No, there were virtually no LD votes to start with there. The Ynys Mon dynamics need to be understood in the context that the seat was 51% Leave but with the Conservatives only on 28% in 2017 it follows that Lab and Plaid had quite a lot of Leave voters in their 2017 base. My guess informed by Scully's cross breaks is that many of those defected from Plaid to Con and from Lab to Con, with Plaid I think grabbing some back from Labour non-Corbynites. Ended up Con (+BXP) up, Lab down, PC unchanged (roughly).
Can labour avoid splitting? Is there a unity candidate acceptable to the momentum cancer that controls the party? Or do they stick with the hard left and the moderates do a Change UK with time to make it work?
Can anyone make a credible case for it not splitting. Momentumites hold the levers of power - they appear to want to blame gullible voters, the media and Brexit for the losing, rather than people only wanting to support a sensible centre left politician
I am really disappointed by the Scottish results. This is going to be a major problem unless the trial does serious damage. When you see the chronic state of our education system (Pisa), our hospitals (kids dying because known faults weren’t fixed) and the mess that is Police Scotland you are left wondering if nothing can make a difference.
I'm sad for Kirsteen Hair in Angus, a really good MP.
The SNP and the case for independence will collapse in good time, and it won't be the fluff of the Salmond revelations that does it, it will be deeper than that. For now, we've endured a Brexit slap in Scotland that could have been much worse. Now Boris is in the driving seat.
My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.
If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.
Even if Brexit is an immediate clusterfuck (possible, but not my central forecast) I am not sure Labour should pivot to rejoin as opposed to just hammering the Tories on their economic competence. "I told you you were wrong" is never a winning slogan, even when fully justified.
The thing is, if that were to happen, they would also to want to tap into the increased anger and motivation in metropolitan areas too. The opportunity to raise Brexit once again might just be too great.
Labour will win the cities for the foreseeable future regardless. Johnson's Tories are toxic for us metropolitan elitists. But I think we have accepted that we don't live in a country that sees itself as European. Personally I will do what I can to keep my own children's vista and opportunities open, that's all you can do now.
Yes looks like the UK is now moving away from Europe and towards the USA and as it does so NI becomes ever more united with Ireland and Scotland will likely go at some point .
All depends on whether Johnson pivots towards a softer Brexit or if he goes towards a harder Brexit in which case the UK is definitely over .
I see there's wall-to-wall Boris sycophancy on the BBC at present. The poor dears must be terrified to death, and with good reason. Doubtless it will soon be abolished and replaced with 'Boris Gold': a continuous stream of Boris triumphs ending with a three-hour special about the making of the Love Actually election spoof. I for one can't wait!
Let's just hope there isn't a Boris-themed porn channel to accompany it.
Pole-dancing accompanied by very generous tips from men whose main erotic attribute is their bank balance (or their access to other people's).
My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
I see there's wall-to-wall Boris sycophancy on the BBC at present. The poor dears must be terrified to death, and with good reason. Doubtless it will soon be abolished and replaced with 'Boris Gold': a continuous stream of Boris triumphs ending with a three-hour special about the making of the Love Actually election spoof. I for one can't wait!
Charles Moore was on R4 this morning absolutely laying in to the BBC's coverage of Brexit, no holds barred. Suggested that it was high time to abolish the licence fee as a "poll tax".
I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
Comments
How many on here pre-judged that a Corbyn government would lead to Venezuela-on-Thames?
I made a mere £116 on three bets. North Norfolk at 7/4 came in with a 14k Con majority. Bit pissed off still as it was 5/1 early in the campaign when I made a mental note to back it only to never quite get around to it until the odds had dropped. The third on PC seats laid off the second leaving a minimal net profit on those.
2017 Underestimating Labour
2015 Underestimating Tories
...
Therefore arguably the Remain Alliance could potentially have resulted in a gain for Remain of -1.
Conclusion - you can't simply shuffle voters around among parties! It's not unreasonable to view PC as a very different package to LD and to conclude that the parties are not fungible.
Labour's core policy - redistribution with a sledge hammer - will see them lose more seats next time if they don't change tack. The pendulum is broken.
Enjoy it while it lasts!
https://mobile.twitter.com/JodyyDC/status/1205342709436878850
Well, we stayed up all night and enjoyed the drip, drip, drip of endorphins with every Portillo moment.
My Twitter timeline is full of raging Lefties, jubilant SNats, triumphant Tories, so everyone's having fun.
Boris genuinely has an historic opportunity. Look after those who've lent you their votes Prime Minister, they'll only trust you once.
Nice to see PB at it's inimitable best as it always is on election nights. I shall, if the Lord permits, see you all again in '24.
Unfortunately if momentum labour continue as we have seen here with various tweets they will continue to call voters stupid, racist, unsupportive of young generations when not supporting them. Every time I have come across momentumites it seems like I need to be sent to a re-education camp for not agreeing with everything they say. Contrast with Boris thanking labour voters for lending the conservatives their vote. Can you imagine that from Corbyn?
* More Labour votes than 2005
* Fewer seats than 1983
* 55% of votes for remain (or at least revote) parties
* 45% for 'get Brexit done' parties
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-turnout-results-labour-corbyn-blair-votes-conservatives-a9245181.html
But a friend sent me this so why aren't we about to regulate (anti-)social media? The broadcasting media have been regulated for ages to stop them peddling untruths and semi- or fascist propaganda (mostly effective, although BBC 2019 came under fire for its Brexit coverage)
https://bylinetimes.com/2019/12/13/general-election-2019-byline-times-four-pillars-of-dont-panic/
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
I don’t dispute that the WA will pass and we will physically leave.
You may not owe your portfolio gains to them though.
(You also avoided Labour nationalising some important Scotland based companies)
Immediate pressure for another IndyRef, or a more careful buildup? (I presume that's the question for you now?)
Selecting nut-job SWPers to stand for Labour in May's local elections.
https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1205430509263867904?s=20
Needless to say its driving the Twitterati absolutely demented...
If there was to be a Remain Alliance, it should have been between LibDem and Labour (though of course, Labour did not want that).
Adam Price is lucky that the results in Ceredigion & Arfon went his way. But, Plaid are facing problems. There next set of target seats (Llanelli and Ynys Mon) were a disappointment -- in Llanelli, they even fell behind the Tories.
Lucy Powell, the dark horse? Northern, not much baggage, a woman
So much depends on what Cummings has planned for these northern areas.
There's also the issue of public perception, if the EU is a "bigger thing" we're "part of" then staying in may be an easier sell than (re)entering into an institution which has over time become essentially "other" and "foreign". Potentially being outside the EU might bring more nuance to how we feel about being "European" vs "EUian" - is that particular organisation as attractive to us, rather than a general fuzzy feeling about "European cooperation" (which will persist in other institutional forms)? But we may also have different feelings about what "Britain" means and what role we want it to play in the world, where its place is. Whether that's buccaneering/bloody-minded independence as a middling power, or willingness to become a little cog in a bigger machine, who can say?
My general feeling is that Britain will be less likely to join, the tighter the EU federates and/or the more its structure shows political or economic strain. (A particular issue is how badly a single currency functions without strong, likely centrally-controlled, cross-border fiscal flows of the kind that would appal Germany but are deeply needed in the likes of Greece.) Also less likely the more our trade is with the Rest of the World - for which long-term trend will be upwards. But with so many unknowns it is a big guessing game. Would any of the main three parties strategise the pursuit of this cause as a core goal?
* not just the regulations themselves but the "regulatory culture" - if the Brussels corridors are more dominated by French and German approaches, particularly over a long period of time
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!
The St Ives declaration will be made at Truro Leisure Centre at 14:30.
The Isles of Scilly form part of the St Ives constituency, and the votes from the smaller islands are added to the numbers from the rest of the constituency.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50766284
2012 - AV referendum
2014 - Scottish referendum
2015 - general election
2016 - brexit referendum
2017 - general election
2019 - general election
we've had a lot of politics in the last 10 years.
but take another look. These are all the post-internet elections and in each and every one, the same side, the one that 'wins the internet' has taken a beating.
Anyway, glad its over. Genuinely. Was worried to the point of physical sickness for most of the last week or so.
But it wont be easy or guaranteed. But then 14 years into a Tory led government theyd likely not be amazed if they did not make it to 19 years.
Although the years will likely be different as FTPA is getting repealed.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1205298593315377157
It's of course bollocks.
https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1205267678908293120
The SNP and the case for independence will collapse in good time, and it won't be the fluff of the Salmond revelations that does it, it will be deeper than that. For now, we've endured a Brexit slap in Scotland that could have been much worse. Now Boris is in the driving seat.
(joking, of course
All depends on whether Johnson pivots towards a softer Brexit or if he goes towards a harder Brexit in which case the UK is definitely over .
Pole-dancing accompanied by very generous tips from men whose main erotic attribute is their bank balance (or their access to other people's).
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205426716212109312
lol