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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,092
    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Amazing that Putney was the only Labour gain of the night. (Although the MRP had given a sneak preview of it).

    To be the unfortunate Tory who lost a seat (in England anyway) on a night like that. Rough.
    There was Zac too.
    And St Albans
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    I wonder how many LD members regret voting for Swinson as leader

    I voted for her and it was the right decision at the time. There's much to be pondered on who I will vote for in the next leadership election (it also depends on the limited candidates).
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    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
    This will be the great issue of the next few years, because many pressures point in conflicting directions.

    The only way he could pursue a hard Brexit and retain these northern areas is with a large volume of spending for these areas.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,511
    None of the parties or big players ever proposed 'in but a renegotiated in'. Semi-detached status. Those who wanted us back in were just determined to pretty much ram us back in as we were before the EUref. That was probably a mistake.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    I'll say this positive thing about him - he does not lack for confidence, and is not as timid as most of his colleagues unwilling to go out and face the press to bat for the party.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    You think logic and consistency are a problem for Boris Johnson?

    This is man who’s pro having his cake and pro eating it.
    Glad your feeling better CR. You were really rather tightly wound yesterday.

    Was rather frustrating engaging with you over the campaign. I resolved to be scrupulous in not attacking Corbyn. There was no way I was going to give any Corbynut the ability to cultivate a betrayal myth. This was his election to win or lose.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
    Maybe not. But given this worse than 1983 scenario, many Tories will no doubt consider that they could get a second term even with that. or that it is worth trying.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    Oh, please. How do I join up?
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    On a personal note, congratulations to Aaron on his success at the general election.

    We must call him the honourable Mr Bell now by law. :)

    Though I doubt we will see him post again.
    I thought you only got the "honourable" bit if you were a member of the Privy Council. Or have I misunderstood?
    isn't that the "Right Honourable".???. bit rusty on my Brit Con
    TP will be an honourable member.

    But he will only be called the Hon TP if he is the son of a peer. Otherwise, it's plain Mr TP.

    Right Hon is indeed for Privy Councillors.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Finally went to bed at 5am, happy.

    Up at 8 for work.

    Let's get Breakfast Done!


    Like the old British Rail Breakfast! A Heart Attack on a Plate! I love it!

    (If you caught the Scottish trains you'd get Lorne sausage too!)
    Baked beans and tomato. And a runny egg. Makes me heave at the thought of it. Nice piece of black pudding, though!
    Weatherspoons have a "Miners Benedict" (as if) - with black pudding replacing the bacon on an Eggs Benedict...
    Haven't been in one of that wretched man's pubs for years.
    Only option at Gatwick...
    Lounge? You have to pay of course!
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    glwglw Posts: 9,551
    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    Is that £3 supporter thing still open?
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    None of the parties or big players ever proposed 'in but a renegotiated in'. Semi-detached status. Those who wanted us back in were just determined to pretty much ram us back in as we were before the EUref. That was probably a mistake.

    But 'in as we were in' meant keeping our favourable opt outs and rebates. Who would have wanted to lose those?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    You think logic and consistency are a problem for Boris Johnson?

    This is man who’s pro having his cake and pro eating it.
    It goes beyond that though. Boris Johnson will of course do anything at all that furthers the interests of Boris Johnson and not a thing more, and this is something that you wish for, not something that furthers the interests of Boris Johnson.

    His approach to Brexit will be determined by keeping together the coalition of voters who turned out in force yesterday, so expect protectionism and strict immigration controls. He's more likely to nuke Brussels than cosy up to it.
    I think the EU will accept strict immigration on a reciprocal basis but insist on the UK signing up to their State Aid rules. Which will be interesting. Say, plausible scenario, BMW take over Jaguar Landrover - they make the engines and a large part of the content already - and move production to the EU. Johnson's instinct will be to give all sorts of financial incentives to JLR, only to be told, EU says No. Uncomfortable, but it will definitely happen with some industries.
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    Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.

    So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood

    Add sunderland central to that pile
    Thanks. Looked straight past that one
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I knew he was a prick but he’s surpassed my low expectations there. Cant believe his constituents love that 6th form wankery but I guess that sums up a lot of Brighton these days
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    glw said:

    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    Is that £3 supporter thing still open?
    You can't inflict Burgon on the Labour Party as Leader. That really would be beyond cruel.
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    Well, here we are in the cold light of day with a government with a single party majority which is the biggest any government has enjoyed in 14 years.

    This must be gut wrenching for Labour but they must move quickly to address the source of the problem. They didn’t listen. I don’t think Corbyn should be hanging around like a bad smell either.

    Truth be told I would not have voted conservative at this election if it wasn’t for Corbyn. I didn’t want Brexit and I don’t like Boris Johnson, but this sort of result is infinitely more palatable than putting momentum in charge of the levers of power. I note that Corbyn’s speech last night was pretty ungracious - I think he showed his true face in that moment. The cuddly grandpa act has never been anything other than a facade.

    Well the Tories now have an historic opportunity for the next four and a half years. Some will call me stupid for saying this but all through this campaign I have said that my ideal result is a government that can just govern and take the actions it feels necessary. We have not been served well by the 2017 parliament. It feels like now, for a little time at least, we have some respite from Westminster chaos and we can look to worrying about other things now.

    I would also say I massively wobbled before the exit poll. Throughout the campaign I thought the Tories would do it but nothing on this scale. The mood music of the country on Election Day and as the hours ticked down seemed to suggest to me that we were on a knife edge. Well done to Robert Smithson and others for calling it right.

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    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    Oh, ffs.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,125
    edited December 2019

    nico67 said:

    It’s nonsense to suggest Labour would have done better backing Leave in this election . A large majority of both its voters and membership back Remain.

    The Brexit position whilst a fudge was really the only hope of keeping its coalition of voters together and let’s not ignore the fact , many Leave seats in the north and the Midlands still returned a Labour MP .

    A better leader, a more credible manifesto whilst not guaranteeing success certainly wouldn’t have led to last nights horror show and it would also have helped the Lib Dems pick up more seats as pro EU Tories might not have been so terrified of a Labour government .

    This Tory was shit scared of a Corbyn government and I don't think I was alone in that.
    I was physically sick into my downstairs toilet last night.

    That’s never happened to me at any election before.
    I just managed to hold it in after all the champagne and canapes at Dame Eleanor Laing's victory party, Tories cheering and swigging until dawn as the gains and Tory majority came through
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    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
    The economy is flatlining right now. No one paid a blind bit of notice during the election campaign.

    So long as whatever economic mangling can be attributed to the requirements of Brexit, the death cult will accept it and perhaps even welcome it.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Johnson can basically if he wishes go to a softer Brexit or a further extension called something different.

    With such a large majority he has that space if he wants to take it.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
    Boris will be more concerned with the mood music. If there's the slightest risk of a softer Brexit looking like a betrayal of 'Get Brexit Done' he'll avoid it. If a hard Brexit causes economic problems then there are techniques then can employ to lessen the government's share of the blame.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.

    His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.

    So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
    Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
    I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical.
    Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
    It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
    Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
    Johnson will be elected the next time for the same reason as he was elected this time. By embracing and eliminating Farargist competition while Labour shares its votes with the Lib Dems. He will betray everyone apart from the Brexiteers. They keep him in power. It's a pact with the Devil, but he's signed up.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,125
    spudgfsh said:

    I wonder how many LD members regret voting for Swinson as leader

    I voted for her and it was the right decision at the time. There's much to be pondered on who I will vote for in the next leadership election (it also depends on the limited candidates).
    The members will likely vote for Layla Moran
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    Finally went to bed at 5am, happy.

    Up at 8 for work.

    Let's get Breakfast Done!


    Like the old British Rail Breakfast! A Heart Attack on a Plate! I love it!

    (If you caught the Scottish trains you'd get Lorne sausage too!)
    Baked beans and tomato. And a runny egg. Makes me heave at the thought of it. Nice piece of black pudding, though!
    Weatherspoons have a "Miners Benedict" (as if) - with black pudding replacing the bacon on an Eggs Benedict...
    Haven't been in one of that wretched man's pubs for years.
    Only option at Gatwick...
    Lounge? You have to pay of course!
    But they won't have Miners Benedict! I spend a lot of time in Indonesia where bacon is difficult enough to come across and black pudding unknown!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.

    So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood

    Add sunderland central to that pile
    Thanks. Looked straight past that one
    I think some of the Brexit vote is "Never Tory" though ?
    Hartlepool with the high profile campaign ran there by BXP definitely stopped the Tories, but in Barnsley it was the Tories that prevented the BXP from winning in BOTH those seats :o !
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    Alistair said:

    Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
    It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.

    Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.

    Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.

    They've passed the legislation and everything.
    There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.

    Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.

    Leaving the EU isn't a material change?
    It will be when it’s happened - which it hasn’t yet. They must then seek a fresh and clear mandate after that. Only then should we consider granting another referendum.
    I sincerely hope that Unionists (particularly those outside Scotland) persist with the lordly, condescending 'only then should we consider granting' patter.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,686
    The state of the nation:

    Labour voters shop at Waitrose and M&S

    Tory voters shop at Aldi and Lidl

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,092
    I'm wondering if Corbyn will hang on until the EHRC report then quit?
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    nico67 said:

    Johnson can basically if he wishes go to a softer Brexit or a further extension called something different.

    With such a large majority he has that space if he wants to take it.

    if the ERG vote against wouldn't he lose still?

    I thought that there were roughly 50 ERG members but he's only got the headroom for about 40 voting against him
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I'm glad Johnson won, but surveying the scene today he's got the devil's own job keeping the union together.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.

    So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood

    Add sunderland central to that pile
    Thanks. Looked straight past that one
    I think some of the Brexit vote is "Never Tory" though ?
    Hartlepool with the high profile campaign ran there by BXP definitely stopped the Tories, but in Barnsley it was the Tories that prevented the BXP from winning in BOTH those seats :o !
    Was it Gower that BXP came closest to winning? 29.9%, 2nd by 3%
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    I wonder how many LD members regret voting for Swinson as leader

    I voted for her and it was the right decision at the time. There's much to be pondered on who I will vote for in the next leadership election (it also depends on the limited candidates).
    The members will likely vote for Layla Moran
    I seriously hope we, as a member I can say we, don’t have an election let the MPs decide who they want to lead them and then get on with it. Waste of time and money the next elections are only 20:weeks away!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368
    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    Richard Burgon not ruling himself out for the leadership! 😆

    Oh, please. How do I join up?
    Just for the LOLs. Blinkey rules.
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    The state of the nation:

    Labour voters shop at Waitrose and M&S

    Tory voters shop at Aldi and Lidl

    Which of those pairs is growing?
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    Alistair said:

    Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
    It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.

    Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.

    Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.

    They've passed the legislation and everything.
    There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.

    Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.

    Leaving the EU isn't a material change?
    It will be when it’s happened - which it hasn’t yet. They must then seek a fresh and clear mandate after that. Only then should we consider granting another referendum.
    I sincerely hope that Unionists (particularly those outside Scotland) persist with the lordly, condescending 'only then should we consider granting' patter.
    Is the SNP seat count 47 or 48?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    edited December 2019

    Jezza appealing for more entryists to join to vote in the leadership election.

    To be held early next year.

    Any chance of a Milliband (Minor) comeback?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,986
    Moment of sympathy for the middle class WASPI women who have been denied their enormous bung funded by the working class.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    nico67 said:

    Johnson can basically if he wishes go to a softer Brexit or a further extension called something different.

    With such a large majority he has that space if he wants to take it.

    if the ERG vote against wouldn't he lose still?

    I thought that there were roughly 50 ERG members but he's only got the headroom for about 40 voting against him
    As we saw from the Johnson deal, if May had tried that she would have been trashed by the right wing press and the ERG .

    He can get away with much more because he’s “ the chosen one” in their eyes and can walk on water .

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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    I wonder how many LD members regret voting for Swinson as leader

    I voted for her and it was the right decision at the time. There's much to be pondered on who I will vote for in the next leadership election (it also depends on the limited candidates).
    The members will likely vote for Layla Moran
    I think that you're right. It depends on who is on the ballot (not much choice though)
    I didn't get time to go any of the hustings last time. I might have to make the effort this time.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.

    So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood

    Add sunderland central to that pile
    Thanks. Looked straight past that one
    I think some of the Brexit vote is "Never Tory" though ?
    Hartlepool with the high profile campaign ran there by BXP definitely stopped the Tories, but in Barnsley it was the Tories that prevented the BXP from winning in BOTH those seats :o !
    Was it Gower that BXP came closest to winning? 29.9%, 2nd by 3%
    No, that report was wrong. BXP came in with 1379 votes in 5th there
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    The state of the nation:

    Labour voters shop at Waitrose and M&S

    Tory voters shop at Aldi and Lidl

    And Lib Dems? Well, they won't really keep anyone going will they?
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    RobD said:

    Moment of sympathy for the middle class WASPI women who have been denied their enormous bung funded by the working class.

    Mrs May will be gutted....
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I don’t think Johnson can argue that his mandate is enough to deliver Brexit and then argue that Sturgeons isn’t enough to deliver another indy ref .

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    RobD said:

    Moment of sympathy for the middle class WASPI women who have been denied their enormous bung funded by the working class.

    That pledge was disgraceful tbh.
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    RobD said:

    Moment of sympathy for the middle class WASPI women who have been denied their enormous bung funded by the working class.

    Can we have a respectable moment of silence for those who feel so entitled that they demand been able to retire five years earlier than men.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,986
    New thread.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.

    So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood

    Add sunderland central to that pile
    Thanks. Looked straight past that one
    I think some of the Brexit vote is "Never Tory" though ?
    Hartlepool with the high profile campaign ran there by BXP definitely stopped the Tories, but in Barnsley it was the Tories that prevented the BXP from winning in BOTH those seats :o !
    Was it Gower that BXP came closest to winning? 29.9%, 2nd by 3%
    No, that report was wrong. BXP came in with 1379 votes in 5th there
    Thought that was a bit much! Britain Elects got a few wrong on their Twitter. One seat was given as 77% Tory w Labour getting 2.9%, later corrected to 57 and 22 I think
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    spudgfsh said:

    nico67 said:

    Johnson can basically if he wishes go to a softer Brexit or a further extension called something different.

    With such a large majority he has that space if he wants to take it.

    if the ERG vote against wouldn't he lose still?

    I thought that there were roughly 50 ERG members but he's only got the headroom for about 40 voting against him
    That assumes the opposition will vote against as well.
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    Alistair said:

    Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
    It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.

    Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.

    Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.

    They've passed the legislation and everything.
    There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.

    Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.

    Leaving the EU isn't a material change?
    It will be when it’s happened - which it hasn’t yet. They must then seek a fresh and clear mandate after that. Only then should we consider granting another referendum.
    I sincerely hope that Unionists (particularly those outside Scotland) persist with the lordly, condescending 'only then should we consider granting' patter.
    Is the SNP seat count 47 or 48?
    One's an Independent according to Blackford.
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    I'm glad Johnson won, but surveying the scene today he's got the devil's own job keeping the union together.

    It was more or less an either/or choice.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.

    What currency are your shares in? Edit - oh yes..£

    Enjoy it while it lasts!
    Cannot lose as they are in £ and $ so based on your thesis of gloom and doom for Scotland I will be even better off in future.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Mr. L, aye. Gove to the Treasury would be a very sound move.

    MD have you bumped your head , that clown could not count his fingers never mind run the treasury
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    DavidL said:

    I am really disappointed by the Scottish results. This is going to be a major problem unless the trial does serious damage. When you see the chronic state of our education system (Pisa), our hospitals (kids dying because known faults weren’t fixed) and the mess that is Police Scotland you are left wondering if nothing can make a difference.

    I'm sad for Kirsteen Hair in Angus, a really good MP.

    The SNP and the case for independence will collapse in good time, and it won't be the fluff of the Salmond revelations that does it, it will be deeper than that. For now, we've endured a Brexit slap in Scotland that could have been much worse. Now Boris is in the driving seat.
    Hair was absolute crap, an absolute tool and only out for herself. You losers dreaming that SNP are going to slip make me laugh, your London carpetbaggers get regular thrashings and you just cannot take it in
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Omnium said:

    malcolmg said:

    Great election result , SNP triumphant, thrashed opposition, my shares are up £20K this morning already and to top it all the sun is splitting a hole in the sky. On to Indyref2.

    A very strong result for the SNP.
    You may not owe your portfolio gains to them though.
    (You also avoided Labour nationalising some important Scotland based companies)

    Immediate pressure for another IndyRef, or a more careful buildup? (I presume that's the question for you now?)



    I would expect it to be after Holyrood elections now but should be within next 12 -24 months for certain. Once we exit EU the pressure will build big time.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,941

    None of the parties or big players ever proposed 'in but a renegotiated in'. Semi-detached status. Those who wanted us back in were just determined to pretty much ram us back in as we were before the EUref. That was probably a mistake.

    Outstanding good point! It is good for the following reasons:

    1) it accurately asseses the situation and notes the problem with the proposed solution
    2) I made the same point the weekend after the referendum.

    Everything since then has been a working-out of that point which, if grasped earlier, would have stopped us wasting three and a half years.
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    What's going on at St Ives?
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    MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    Morning all.

    Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.

    Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!

    And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.

    When can we expect the first troop deployments in Edinburgh?
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    nico67 said:

    I don’t think Johnson can argue that his mandate is enough to deliver Brexit and then argue that Sturgeons isn’t enough to deliver another indy ref .

    Course he can. Leave actually won their referendum
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Mango said:

    Morning all.

    Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.

    Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!

    And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.

    When can we expect the first troop deployments in Edinburgh?
    Let's ask HYFUD
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    What's going on at St Ives?

    Count, hopefully to start at 2:30 provided they can land the ballot papers from Scilly Isles
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I'm wondering if Corbyn will hang on until the EHRC report then quit?

    No. He will hang on until his chosen candidate takes over leader as the Labour party. He still believes his project is the right onem
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,308
    edited December 2019
    SPIN initially settled all bets wrongly - they thought Lab had 203 MPs when it's actually 202.

    BBC sensibly show Speaker as Lab as each side then supplies two Speakers but SPIN obviously didn't realise this.

    They've now corrected some markets but not all - the 200Ups market is still wrong.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    eek said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.

    The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.

    Boris's quandry - is Gove a powerful ally or a threat? I reckon both, hence quandry.
    Where do you put him though -you can't give him the Foreign Office (he doesn't fly) and he knows the flaws in the home office so he's going to want money for the bits of justice Boris doesn't want to give money to.

    I suspect the Treasury is the safest and best place for him.
    Lock the idiot in a cupboard and throw away the key
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    Betfair very slow in settling the voteshare markets..

    Seem to remember that last time they took several days.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Alistair said:

    Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
    It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.

    Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.

    Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.

    They've passed the legislation and everything.
    There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.

    Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.

    Leaving the EU isn't a material change?
    It will be when it’s happened - which it hasn’t yet. They must then seek a fresh and clear mandate after that. Only then should we consider granting another referendum.
    I sincerely hope that Unionists (particularly those outside Scotland) persist with the lordly, condescending 'only then should we consider granting' patter.
    They are showing their true colours already , want to crush the unruly colony and put us in our place.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    nunu2 said:

    Mango said:

    Morning all.

    Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.

    Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!

    And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.

    When can we expect the first troop deployments in Edinburgh?
    Let's ask HYFUD
    He will be away drilling his troops in preparation.
This discussion has been closed.