politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

TheScreamingEagles said:

Posted without comment

https://twitter.com/jdoyleworthing/status/1205213101341184002

That would be as improbable as you eating a pineapple pizza.

Vanilla has been throwing a bit of a tantrum for the last twenty minutes or so, but it finally appears to have calmed down so here I am... voted a bit earlier this evening, no queues out the door but woman collecting ballot paper immediately in front of me enquired as to whether or not business had been brisk and received an answer in the affirmative. This was in a Tory safe seat so, allied to the other anecdata that seem to have been coming through during the day, it doesn't look like this is going to be a low turnout election - despite the utterly appalling weather.

The Rook household now awaits the exit poll with a sense of slightly nervous anticipation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1205210793492516864

That can't possibly happen. I saw the picture of the cute but badly behaved dog at the polling station, ahhh! Dilyn was with him.

Boom boom- good night!

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

Sunderland South will declare v quick. Lab will win it easily, but it's very very leavy so the Tory uptick will be important.

Brom said:

Andrew said:

More rumours about Pidcock, hrrrm. Still dubious here.

Her constant tweeting suggests it’s probably tight. I doubt her personal vote is high so that might mean Con outperform the MRP a bit

I would have thought if anything she’s a drag on the ticket. She’s not local, the CLP all hate her and she’s not been notably assiduous as a constituency MP.

Still be a major, major shock if she loses. But we’re going to get lots of those I think.

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

PB was down for several minutes. Did anybody notice?

DanSmith said:

Gabs3 said:

https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648

Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...

They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.

Except Labour have not campaigned at all in F&GG. Why start now?

speedy2 said:

Mysticrose said:

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1205199021700194305?s=20

We will find out soon.
If the Conservatives win Sunderland Central they have won the election.
If not, then look at the swing in Swindon.

Swindon? More like Swingdon.

Just for posterity this was what I got during the past 5 weeks of regional subsamples:

CON 359, 345, 347, 346, 352
LAB 208, 223, 226, 229, 225
LD 19, 19, 15, 13, 12
SNP 42, 41, 40, 40, 40

My swingometer showed a majority of:
24, 24, 24, 24, 24

If there is a polling error then it will not be due to late swings.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

Surely Sunderland?

DeClare said:

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

Stoke Newington.

You probably mean Stoke-on-Trent.

Stoke Newington is part of the Hackney North constituency in London, Dianne Abbot is the MP.

I know. It was a wind-up. And CHB didn’t notice.

Andrew said:

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

It would be Boris from the Lords.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205218026997596160

Ha

They've had it in much of London outside Westminster and Chelsea, including Putney, I think. The question, further out of London and in order of likelihood, is whether Raab can hang on, Grieve can pull off a stunner, and Uxbridge can deliver the mother of all clownshocks.

I'm not sure any of those last ones are really that likely except Raab, though.

ozymandias said:

DeClare said:

ozymandias said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

Stoke Newington.

You probably mean Stoke-on-Trent.

Stoke Newington is part of the Hackney North constituency in London, Dianne Abbot is the MP.

I know. It was a wind-up. And CHB didn’t notice.

Diane Abbott losing her seat would be very funny though and probably would indicate that the result is sub-optimal for the Labour Party.

Looking like 1987 to me!! 🥳

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205218026997596160

Ha

2 seats that yougov's MRP has predicted that will go Labour.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

The Sunderland seats are Leave seats.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Brom said:

Andrew said:

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat

I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.

However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.

All fun but fanciful at this stage.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

squareroot2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

There's something of a shift I am observing in these hours, which is a bit like 2017.

Ramp alert

It's only ramping when it's pro Labour, anything pro Tory is seen as impartial. Never change PB

Is anyone ramping the Tories by saying they're going to win a landslide?

Fortunately this didn't happen in a couple of marginals.

Forty-eight people were given the wrong ballot papers and will have to re-cast their votes in the general election, a council has admitted.

The mix-up happened at a polling station in Mossley Hill, Liverpool, which serves two constituencies.

Ballot papers for Wavertree constituency were mistakenly issued to Riverside residents.

The incorrect votes will be discounted and a review has been ordered, Liverpool City Council said.

The authority said it was making efforts to contact those involved to give them the opportunity to vote for a second time before polls close at 22:00 GMT.

The council's returning officer Tony Reeves said the errors developed after a "medical issue" meant a "key member of staff" was unable to attend the polling station at Booker Avenue Junior School.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50761707

speedy2 said:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Hmm.

Time_to_Leave said:

ozymandias said:

Looking like 1987 to me!! 🥳

Ooo can I have a Commodore 64 for Christmas?

Not a ZX Spectrum +2? Got a datacorder!

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Mysticrose said:

Brom said:

Andrew said:

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat

I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.

However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.

All fun but fanciful at this stage.

Nope. You don’t have to be anything in stature. It becomes rather hard to front up in Parliament but no change there.....

In practice, as many have said, you’d think a midlands Tory on a 30k majority would make way.

Edit - I meant statute. But you can also be any stature.

This was my prediction to a colleague on the phone last night.

Tory: 330-350 ie Up
Lab: 170-210 ie Down
SNP: 45-50 ie Noisy
LD: 10-20 ie Irrelevant if the rest are correct
Others: The rest, including Zadrozny

ie Majority of 30-70.

No hedging or ambiguity at all there :-) .

My estimate in 2017 was unnecessarily expensive.

Brom said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1205210793492516864

Not sure what Lib Dem vote there was to collapse, they lost their deposit in 2017!

Fact based analysis will take you nowhere when random bloke off Twitter says....

Mysticrose said:

Brom said:

Andrew said:

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat

I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.

However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.

All fun but fanciful at this stage.

Alec Douglas Home was not a member of either house for a few weeks in 1963.

Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months in 1964-65 but not a member of either house.

***ANECDOTE KLAXON***

Interestingly, my ballot paper was folded by the clerk, but not in half. It was folded to expose just the boxes for the X. I had to fold it again once I’d voted so no one could see my vote as I popped it in the box.

Make of that what you will.

Andrew said:

Fits with MRP:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Targets 59,69 and 74. If they’re not even close here than that is making me confident of a majority. But will take with a pinch of salt

thedevonloft said:

Just looked the clock and it’s only 8.15. Feels much later. Roll on May elections. Going to be a long night.

Hearin’. It’s that fourth glass of cab that causes that phenomenon old friend.

ydoethur said:

speedy2 said:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Presumably if London is resisting the Tory tide Jon Cruddas is safe in Dagenham?

Rainham will vote Conservative by a stonking margin. But, Dagenham will probably vote sufficiently Labour for him to cling on.

I voted in a village hall at about 4pm, and for the first time didn't even take my polling card with me. Amazing how lax we are about ID in this country. In the United States you can't even buy a local train ticket without showing ID.

kle4 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205218026997596160

Ha

Were we not expecting Tory difficulties in the capital?

Could be CON gain a few Dagenham, Eltham, Kensington lose a few Richmond P, Chipping Barnet

CON will take net nil change in London

OK, time for my polling station story. Arrived 6.15ish with the rest of the after work commuter crowd. And crowd is the right word for it. There were at least 15 queueing when I arrived and 20 by the time I left. That must count as "brisk" in anyone's book.

The most exciting part was that the desks and booths were in reverse formation from last time.

Oh, and Wor Lass told me to stop slagging off Philip Davies within earshot of the other voters as we were stood in the queue.

Andy_JS said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

squareroot2 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

There's something of a shift I am observing in these hours, which is a bit like 2017.

Ramp alert

It's only ramping when it's pro Labour, anything pro Tory is seen as impartial. Never change PB

Is anyone ramping the Tories by saying they're going to win a landslide?

I forecast Con 360+ and go green at that point. Below that line I am in the red, some bits more than others. I backed the extremes on either side of 340.

FrancisUrquhart said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1205220464274092042

Kind of chimes in

If it is close in Crewe, Tories aren't getting a majority.

It is however Skwawkbox, who is infamous for his dishonesty and total fabrications.

ydoethur said:

Mysticrose said:

Brom said:

Andrew said:

numbertwelve said:

I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.

Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.

He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat

I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.

However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.

All fun but fanciful at this stage.

Alec Douglas Home was not a member of either house for a few weeks in 1963.

Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months in 1964-65 but not a member of either house.

Oh my goodness don't mention Patrick Gordon Walker! Parachuting Boris into a safe seat might not work too well.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

brokenwheel said:

Skwawkbox, seriously?

They're pro Labour, so it backs up the Daily Mail Tweet

It's like quoting infowars.

That vanilla outage was more stressful than the election.

AlastairMeeks said:

God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.

Everyone worries about their opponents' ethical credentials.

Casino_Royale said:

That vanilla outage was more stressful than the election.

I read that as outrage.

Nobody really knows anything, this moving of plastic armies around is silly unless in adjacent constituencies. Polling clerks always say polling is brisk, the only time things are different is when they run out of ballot papers which happens rarely. Calm down relax take a tranquilizer or a large brandy. Ramping is a waste of time now, if it ever was otherwise. Come terms with your fate and chill

ydoethur said:

speedy2 said:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336

Presumably if London is resisting the Tory tide Jon Cruddas is safe in Dagenham?

At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, London's a big old place. Saying that Dagenham must be safe just because Putney is a close call is rather like saying that Old Bexley & Sidcup must be about to go Labour for the same reason. I mean, Cruddas might be just fine, but if you care to remember that this is a heavily leave voting constituency sat immediately next to Thurrock then it doesn't make it sound all that easy for him. Because it probably won't be.