Vanilla has been throwing a bit of a tantrum for the last twenty minutes or so, but it finally appears to have calmed down so here I am... voted a bit earlier this evening, no queues out the door but woman collecting ballot paper immediately in front of me enquired as to whether or not business had been brisk and received an answer in the affirmative. This was in a Tory safe seat so, allied to the other anecdata that seem to have been coming through during the day, it doesn't look like this is going to be a low turnout election - despite the utterly appalling weather.
The Rook household now awaits the exit poll with a sense of slightly nervous anticipation.
If the Tories scrape home narrowly tonight the spectre of Corbynism will remain. I just don't think they've done enough to discredit it. And Labour may well get lucky next time round.
I think they will be in a 1997 type position next time which is why it's so important the Labour centrists get back behind the wheel.
That said, if Boris can get a majority it gives me a few years to QROPS my pension and Golden Visa in to Portugal should the country decide it wants to drive itself over the cliff with Corbyn 2.0.
More rumours about Pidcock, hrrrm. Still dubious here.
Her constant tweeting suggests it’s probably tight. I doubt her personal vote is high so that might mean Con outperform the MRP a bit
I would have thought if anything she’s a drag on the ticket. She’s not local, the CLP all hate her and she’s not been notably assiduous as a constituency MP.
Still be a major, major shock if she loses. But we’re going to get lots of those I think.
Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...
They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.
Except Labour have not campaigned at all in F&GG. Why start now?
They've had it in much of London outside Westminster and Chelsea, including Putney, I think. The question, further out of London and in order of likelihood, is whether Raab can hang on, Grieve can pull off a stunner, and Uxbridge can deliver the mother of all clownshocks.
I'm not sure any of those last ones are really that likely except Raab, though.
I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.
Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.
He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat
I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
I'm never entirely sure whether to believe the Daily Mail on Labour information, I'm sure it's the same for Tories when the Guardian reports things too.
Fortunately this didn't happen in a couple of marginals.
Forty-eight people were given the wrong ballot papers and will have to re-cast their votes in the general election, a council has admitted.
The mix-up happened at a polling station in Mossley Hill, Liverpool, which serves two constituencies.
Ballot papers for Wavertree constituency were mistakenly issued to Riverside residents.
The incorrect votes will be discounted and a review has been ordered, Liverpool City Council said.
The authority said it was making efforts to contact those involved to give them the opportunity to vote for a second time before polls close at 22:00 GMT.
The council's returning officer Tony Reeves said the errors developed after a "medical issue" meant a "key member of staff" was unable to attend the polling station at Booker Avenue Junior School.
Why the fuck does anyone in this benighted country ever travel by train? The useless bastards have delayed my train so that I won’t be at home by the exit poll. I hate them. Yes I may have had a drink. But it does not excuse their incompetence.
I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.
Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.
He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat
I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
All fun but fanciful at this stage.
Nope. You don’t have to be anything in stature. It becomes rather hard to front up in Parliament but no change there.....
In practice, as many have said, you’d think a midlands Tory on a 30k majority would make way.
Edit - I meant statute. But you can also be any stature.
I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.
Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.
He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat
I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
All fun but fanciful at this stage.
You don't have to be a member of Parliament to be PM. In fact he isn't at the moment. Anyone could be appointed.
Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
Look for a swing to Con in one of the first seats to declare, Sunderland South and Houghton.
It'll probably be won by Labour but if there is say a 4% swing then Boris can almost certainly count on a majority but wait for results from a couple of other regions to make sure. Swindon will be an early one.
I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.
Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.
He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat
I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
All fun but fanciful at this stage.
Alec Douglas Home was not a member of either house for a few weeks in 1963.
Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months in 1964-65 but not a member of either house.
Interestingly, my ballot paper was folded by the clerk, but not in half. It was folded to expose just the boxes for the X. I had to fold it again once I’d voted so no one could see my vote as I popped it in the box.
See this is a betting site so does anyone have any on the ground information?
I have been told by two counters that Falmouth/Truro race has record turnout and the queues were out the door for around an hour. The university count has surged but just based on demographics vast majority under 40.
I voted in a village hall at about 4pm, and for the first time didn't even take my polling card with me. Amazing how lax we are about ID in this country. In the United States you can't even buy a local train ticket without showing ID.
OK, time for my polling station story. Arrived 6.15ish with the rest of the after work commuter crowd. And crowd is the right word for it. There were at least 15 queueing when I arrived and 20 by the time I left. That must count as "brisk" in anyone's book.
The most exciting part was that the desks and booths were in reverse formation from last time.
Oh, and Wor Lass told me to stop slagging off Philip Davies within earshot of the other voters as we were stood in the queue.
There's something of a shift I am observing in these hours, which is a bit like 2017.
Ramp alert
It's only ramping when it's pro Labour, anything pro Tory is seen as impartial. Never change PB
Is anyone ramping the Tories by saying they're going to win a landslide?
I forecast Con 360+ and go green at that point. Below that line I am in the red, some bits more than others. I backed the extremes on either side of 340.
Voted at around noon in Sevenoaks. The only person in the polling station, and squinting at the list of electors, looked like very few names crossed off by that point - perhaps 10% at a guess. Still, it's a Tory safe seat, so not of any significance.
Daughter voted in Canterbury today - she's at Kent University. It was quiet-ish in her polling station with a single Labour teller. On the campus, however, students were queueing up to vote and mostly going on about voting Labour, as you'd expect. So probably little chance of Anna Firth taking the seat, in line with the YouGov MRP.
I could really be on board with Boris losing his seat but Tory overall majority.
Hell yeah. Would be fun to see who they then picked as PM.
He would stay as PM I guess and someone would step down in a safe seat
I don't think you can have an unelected PM? Don't they have to be a Member of Parliament? Of Commons or Lords? Maybe they would elevate him quickly to the House of Lords.
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
All fun but fanciful at this stage.
Alec Douglas Home was not a member of either house for a few weeks in 1963.
Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months in 1964-65 but not a member of either house.
Oh my goodness don't mention Patrick Gordon Walker! Parachuting Boris into a safe seat might not work too well.
Very exciting and distracting countdown from work. Have taken tomorrow off here in the US, always fun to survive a little longer into the wee small hours on election night #iwasupforballs
God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.
Everyone worries about their opponents' ethical credentials.
Nobody really knows anything, this moving of plastic armies around is silly unless in adjacent constituencies. Polling clerks always say polling is brisk, the only time things are different is when they run out of ballot papers which happens rarely. Calm down relax take a tranquilizer or a large brandy. Ramping is a waste of time now, if it ever was otherwise. Come terms with your fate and chill
Presumably if London is resisting the Tory tide Jon Cruddas is safe in Dagenham?
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, London's a big old place. Saying that Dagenham must be safe just because Putney is a close call is rather like saying that Old Bexley & Sidcup must be about to go Labour for the same reason. I mean, Cruddas might be just fine, but if you care to remember that this is a heavily leave voting constituency sat immediately next to Thurrock then it doesn't make it sound all that easy for him. Because it probably won't be.
Comments
Also watch the swing in Swindon N
The Rook household now awaits the exit poll with a sense of slightly nervous anticipation.
Boom boom- good night!
That said, if Boris can get a majority it gives me a few years to QROPS my pension and Golden Visa in to Portugal should the country decide it wants to drive itself over the cliff with Corbyn 2.0.
Still be a major, major shock if she loses. But we’re going to get lots of those I think.
Ha
CON 359, 345, 347, 346, 352
LAB 208, 223, 226, 229, 225
LD 19, 19, 15, 13, 12
SNP 42, 41, 40, 40, 40
My swingometer showed a majority of:
24, 24, 24, 24, 24
If there is a polling error then it will not be due to late swings.
Stoke Newington is part of the Hackney North constituency in London, Dianne Abbot is the MP.
I'm not sure any of those last ones are really that likely except Raab, though.
+!
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1205219192137486336
However, I suspect the tory party would ditch him very fast.
All fun but fanciful at this stage.
I am joking don't panic PBTories.
Forty-eight people were given the wrong ballot papers and will have to re-cast their votes in the general election, a council has admitted.
The mix-up happened at a polling station in Mossley Hill, Liverpool, which serves two constituencies.
Ballot papers for Wavertree constituency were mistakenly issued to Riverside residents.
The incorrect votes will be discounted and a review has been ordered, Liverpool City Council said.
The authority said it was making efforts to contact those involved to give them the opportunity to vote for a second time before polls close at 22:00 GMT.
The council's returning officer Tony Reeves said the errors developed after a "medical issue" meant a "key member of staff" was unable to attend the polling station at Booker Avenue Junior School.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50761707
Oh you're on a wind up
In practice, as many have said, you’d think a midlands Tory on a 30k majority would make way.
Edit - I meant statute. But you can also be any stature.
I suspected at the time that Labour and the Conservatives could exceed expectations in their target regions.
Tory: 330-350 ie Up
Lab: 170-210 ie Down
SNP: 45-50 ie Noisy
LD: 10-20 ie Irrelevant if the rest are correct
Others: The rest, including Zadrozny
ie Majority of 30-70.
No hedging or ambiguity at all there :-) .
My estimate in 2017 was unnecessarily expensive.
It'll probably be won by Labour but if there is say a 4% swing then Boris can almost certainly count on a majority but wait for results from a couple of other regions to make sure. Swindon will be an early one.
Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months in 1964-65 but not a member of either house.
Interestingly, my ballot paper was folded by the clerk, but not in half. It was folded to expose just the boxes for the X. I had to fold it again once I’d voted so no one could see my vote as I popped it in the box.
Make of that what you will.
Kind of chimes in
I have been told by two counters that Falmouth/Truro race has record turnout and the queues were out the door for around an hour. The university count has surged but just based on demographics vast majority under 40.
It was 7/1 this morning but is now 9/2.
CON will take net nil change in London
The most exciting part was that the desks and booths were in reverse formation from last time.
Oh, and Wor Lass told me to stop slagging off Philip Davies within earshot of the other voters as we were stood in the queue.
It's hilarious, honestly PB never change
Thought I'd add my voting experience to the mix.
Voted at around noon in Sevenoaks. The only person in the polling station, and squinting at the list of electors, looked like very few names crossed off by that point - perhaps 10% at a guess. Still, it's a Tory safe seat, so not of any significance.
Daughter voted in Canterbury today - she's at Kent University. It was quiet-ish in her polling station with a single Labour teller. On the campus, however, students were queueing up to vote and mostly going on about voting Labour, as you'd expect. So probably little chance of Anna Firth taking the seat, in line with the YouGov MRP.
I am not sure whether either party really know where their voters are.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html