politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
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She's got a 9,000 majority. Labour are in trouble in the north if they are in trouble there.kinabalu said:
No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.Andrew said:Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529
And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.2 -
Like Kensington it's not been a safe seat since Labour "managed" the review process in the early 2000s.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wut. Chelsea was never going to turn?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nicola is well known in the area - a perceived risk to the Lib Dems (only 8k majority in a very Remainer area)0 -
The pound is really dropping quite rapidly now against the dollar.0
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Have another glass, there’s still plenty of time.alex_ said:0 -
OK, thanks. I will make a large sum if my call is right. Or yours for that matter. Yet I would prefer to see a shock hung parliament and lose. Which got me thinking - how big would a betting profit have to be to make me neutral. Answer? £25,000. That's how much I'd pay, in other words, to see "Boris" out. For Trump it's bigger. Maybe double that. Crazy, huh.camel said:You've been very consistently predicting that.
My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.0 -
Calm down why isnt your candidate the ex Tory homophobe standing in a LD Tory target seat.nichomar said:
What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous viewsbigjohnowls said:
Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LDAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...
Shameful
Why did Swinson launch the LD campaign in a Lab marginal walking next to her anti Gay Candidate
Because Swinson is stupid1 -
Shyness comes mainly from being in opposition to those around you (these days particularly if they are lefty as they are tending to be somewhat judgemental) or a degree of shame if you think you are acting slightly immorally (could apply to Waspi ex-Tories) or if you think the questioner will disapprove.0
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0.8 cents in the last 90 minutes or so.0
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GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch0 -
Can someone please explain in words of one syllable why better has swung massively onto NoM today?0
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I suspect the same.UpTheMariners said:Greetings from the Land of the Fish! Voting brisk, mid-brisk and unbrisk here. Went to local polling station (junior school at 7.30am - they'd earlier had to improvise with an alfresco booth and box system because the caretaker slept and didn't get there to open up til 7.10am!! My local guesses - Conservative gains in Great Grimsby, |Scunthorpe, Lincoln and (possibly) Hull West and Hessle but - like everyone else - I have no idea whats going to happen ....
Here in Yellow are the areas that the Conservatives will probably see a swing against them in England and Wales, and in Blue a swing against Labour:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_Referendum_Results_by_Constituency.svg0 -
Could be useful. If so it would mean it's still not all clear-cut yet, despite the lack of reports on the ground.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Are you still wearing the green jumper?AlastairMeeks said:I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?0 -
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No one knows owt?tyson said:Can someone please explain in words of one syllable why better has swung massively onto NoM today?
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How would it sound if they said "OK it's probably foregone conclusion in this constituency, but please wrap up warm, put your wellies on and come out into the driving rain for the evening"?CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
Will rain have a differential effect on turnout? That may be crucial. I haven't got a feeling for that.0
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Slacker said:
GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
The hedge funds chestnut again....we heard that one on the remain night, when in reality no-one knew what the fuck was going on....1 -
Just come on here to see everyone looking at tick by tick changes in the betting markets.
Surely we know by now, and are all richer as a result, that the betting markets don't know anything more than we do. In fact as we saw and benefited from on EUref day, they know substantially less.2 -
I`ve been predicting 10 - 20 maj all week, I`ll stick with thatkinabalu said:
OK, thanks. I will make a large sum if my call is right. Or yours for that matter. Yet I would prefer to see a shock hung parliament and lose. Which got me thinking - how big would a betting profit have to be to make me neutral. Answer? £25,000. That's how much I'd pay, in other words, to see "Boris" out. For Trump it's bigger. Maybe double that. Crazy, huh.camel said:You've been very consistently predicting that.
My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.1 -
If the Hedge Funds are doing an exit poll in the heart of London like in 2016, they will be massively out.Slacker said:GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch1 -
If this is a HP I am going to look really stupid. Although to be honest, I still think everybody is panicking unnecessarily.0
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As I thoughttwistedfirestopper3 said:
No one knows owt?tyson said:Can someone please explain in words of one syllable why better has swung massively onto NoM today?
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Everyone under 30 I know appears to have voted. Even those who didn’t vote in the EU ref. Primarily for Labour.1
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“Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Fridge”kinabalu said:
Probably a targeted facebook from "Boris".viewcode said:I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
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Just logged on for the first in 4 hours and Betfair says 1.59.0
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They’ll be out again in force on Primrose Hill, waiting for Byronic to stroll by.speedy2 said:
If the Hedge Funds are doing an exit poll in the heart of London like in 2016, they will be massively out.Slacker said:GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch0 -
There are too many of these “knife edge” Labour posts now from the north.
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.1 -
Which isn’t happening in P&S.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd need tellers in every polling station providing live time information to get that kind of detail.RobD said:
There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?CorrectHorseBattery said:
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I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.0
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The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?1
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Yes - it looks like a few problems for Labour in some of these, but could that be counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere ?CorrectHorseBattery said:There are too many of these “knife edge” Labour posts now from the north.
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.
Also the Tories look very shaky in some of these Southern Remainy seats, but may still have the help of postal votes on their side from elsewhere.0 -
The last 11 1/2 and the next three and a quarter hours are key.CorrectHorseBattery said:There are too many of these “knife edge” Labour posts now from the north.
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.0 -
If they wanted to make serious money they would force the market out to what wasn’t the true result. Then reel in when the opposite happens.Brom said:I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.
We’ve all seen Trading Places and frozen concentrated orange juice right?1 -
The hedge fund thing is a myth....Brom said:I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.
Tory internal polling isn 2017 was reassuring May she was in line for a comfortable majority.....
No one trusts the polls, but no one either thinks Corbyn could ever be PM
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One can only hopealex_ said:The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
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No, I couldn’t risk strangers hanging tinsel and baubles on me.Fysics_Teacher said:
Are you still wearing the green jumper?AlastairMeeks said:I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?0 -
One thing that sometimes people forget is that some polling stations cover a few hundred people (or less) and others a few thousand.
Some polling stations look busy just because there are lots of people registered there. Others could have 100% turnout but still just one voter every ten minutes.0 -
Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet0
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A lot of effort has been put in by oppo parties. Could be at the expense of several seats elsewhere. If they lose badly they are hoping to have a least 1 thing to cheer about (IDS could be 2)alex_ said:The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
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Surprise LD gains in the South as I said a few days ago.tyson said:
One can only hopealex_ said:The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
Imagine somehow the LDs do an SNP 2015 and win 20-30 seats.0 -
I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...0
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Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum0
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Just voted in an affluent part of London. Modest business
Teller said voting had been quite brisk through the day but nothing special.
So not all of London is youthquaking0 -
Maybe it is because he is f...ing useless and an arrogant individual?argyllrs said:
A lot of effort has been put in by oppo parties. Could be at the expense of several seats elsewhere. If they lose badly they are hoping to have a least 1 thing to cheer about (IDS could be 2)alex_ said:The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
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What if the Leavers are coming out in droves, just to make sure we Brexit?RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
Then the youthquake means nothing0 -
Don’t be silly.rural_voter said:
I tend to agree with that comment. Until we have PR, tactical voting is unavoidable. Labour though is always incredibly reluctant to come to arrangements with other parties. It clearly expects them to stand down, never the reverse. I think Labour is standing in for instance Abingdon, Cheltenham, Brighton Pavilion, St Albans, Guildford. Most of these are no-hope Labour seats.nichomar said:
What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous viewsbigjohnowls said:
Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LDAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...
Shameful
But we only get a final say on a WA - which Lab says it wants - if Lab, LD, SNP, PC, SDLP, Green have >320 seats.
They don’t even support the centrist candidates in their own party.1 -
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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Has IDS held itHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy2
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Don't you be put off. Keep making your pointless posts.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Thanks for your support I’ll keep postingsquareroot2 said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
That sounds like Tory panic to meWhisperingOracle said:
Why dont you just stop mKing pointless posts. You know feck allCorrectHorseBattery said:
That sounds like Tory panic to meWhisperingOracle said:
It's a grand tradition on here.0 -
I think that always happens in school elections.OnlyLivingBoy said:I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...
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That’s what the drinks bottle is for.....kinabalu said:
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?Time_to_Leave said:If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
You don't HAVE to answer.2 -
Westminster and Chelsea to stay Tory.Byronic said:Just voted in an affluent part of London. Modest business
Teller said voting had been quite brisk through the day but nothing special.
So not all of London is youthquaking0 -
Given up on IDS or got it in the bag?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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A reminder.
This is what happened in 2017:
The swing was 0 at around the 62% Leave area.0 -
His dick?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has IDS held itHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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Tories confident in seats with 9K majorities?0
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Half right, Stormzy.bigjohnowls said:“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
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Key Brexit Party seat, originally. Profile of the voters ?RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
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Not really, except comparing the results to the YouGov MRP. If the first 20 or 30 results are in line with it, I think that means it's going to be correct overall.tyson said:
Quite bizarre Andy_JSAndy_JS said:Just logged on for the first in 4 hours and Betfair says 1.59.
Have you got some spreadsheet ready for tonight when you can make us all a shedload of cash
FrancisUrquhart has an interesting spreadsheet this time.
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Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
Your candidate even asked people not to vote for him yesterday? Or have i got wrong Constituency?RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
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Prospects for rejoin winning the next referendum also look quite good.OnlyLivingBoy said:I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...
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Funnily enough, as I get older England are batting worse in Tests.....Nigelb said:
That’s what the drinks bottle is for.....kinabalu said:
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?Time_to_Leave said:If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
You don't HAVE to answer.
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The former I suspectwooliedyed said:
Given up on IDS or got it in the bag?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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Or they’ve had so much help that there isn’t any point in calling round againCorrectHorseBattery said:
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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No one knows anything.-1
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At this point, all this frenetic activity is displacement rather than meaningful.CorrectHorseBattery said:
IDS is a goner or they’ve given upHYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
Bit like most of our posts.0 -
Tory vote coming out but will keep going until 9pm, some first time Tory voters, a few thumbs up and stop Corbyn won't you, Momentum out earlier but disorganisedBrom said:
How you feeling about Chingford? TCTC?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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You know the image coming out of both sides is remarkably mixed, doesn’t really scream landslide to me0
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It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.Artist said:
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
This has been researched, it doesn’t make a big difference . Although tends to have a slight effect on the C2DE demographic.NorthofStoke said:Will rain have a differential effect on turnout? That may be crucial. I haven't got a feeling for that.
Certain demographics tend to vote more at certain times though .
The fact that most of the rain has cleared away by 7pm will be a relief for Labour .
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Got in at £100 on Conservative Majority at 1.61
And at £50 on 2.48 on Conservatives 340 seats or more
Let's see how this plays out!1 -
Walsall South not even in top 100 target seats.Razedabode said:Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham0 -
The person who invents the device that registers when you drop off to sleep while listening to one of those will make a few Bob.Fysics_Teacher said:
If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.TheScreamingEagles said:
If any of you now do, please sort me out for a % for thinking of it. Ta!
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I can report that the pubs and bars in London are heaving.1
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Spot on. Corbyn hopes to resolve the Jewish question, it's what they deserve, and they are all going to get the same treatment. He is right about Johnson, too.bigjohnowls said:“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
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Just torn up my ballot paper.0
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Quite so. The left ramping on here is ludicrous.HaroldO said:No one knows anything.
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I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows1
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It's certainly possible. And Labour got a thumping in May - I know, I stood in a comfortably held seat and got demolished. So would be a rapid turnaround to have Labour winning it. However, the leave vote is concentrated in certain areas. This is across the town...Byronic said:
What if the Leavers are coming out in droves, just to make sure we Brexit?RochdalePioneers said:Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
Then the youthquake means nothing
Have also heard from reliable friend in Mirfield (Dewsbury). Turnout there also very high according to staff.0 -
Hanging with the plebs?Richard_Nabavi said:I can report that the pubs and bars in London are heaving.
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BBC Radio 6 doing it's bit
Now playing A live version of Billy Bragg's New England...
Come on....fuck the Tories.....0 -
Took the words right out of my mouth.wooliedyed said:
Given up on IDS or got it in the bag?HYUFD said:Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
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Do you mind telling me what value you think these posts add?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
That's unnecessarily rude. And how is CHB's post any different from the one about IDS?MarqueeMark said:
Don't you be put off. Keep making your pointless posts.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Thanks for your support I’ll keep postingsquareroot2 said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
That sounds like Tory panic to meWhisperingOracle said:
Why dont you just stop mKing pointless posts. You know feck allCorrectHorseBattery said:
That sounds like Tory panic to meWhisperingOracle said:
It's a grand tradition on here.0 -
As the day goes on, some of these tighter northern reports seem to be coming in, after the huge London and University turnout reports. May still all be incredibly hard to call.
Still nothing about any tight races in Wales that I've heard, though - anyone got anything there ?0 -
I have to get back for a meal and prep for EF countIanB2 said:0
