politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead
Comments
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(I still have an unopened box of Theresa May Party Poopers. Didn't have the heart to set them off in 2017....)2
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It would be nice to hear them say Tory landslide, that is true.MarqueeMark said:Everybody got their party poppers ready for the exit poll?
BONG...................
"Our exit poll is predicting that Boris Johnson will remain the Prime Minister with a majority of....that can't be right? Have you checked it? Really....? Fuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkkk......."0 -
Don't...I can remember 2017 all too well.MarqueeMark said:Everybody got their party poppers ready for the exit poll?
BONG...................
"Our exit poll is predicting that Boris Johnson will remain the Prime Minister with a majority of....that can't be right? Have you checked it? Really....? Fuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkkk......."1 -
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
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Having to do very large Sporcle quizzes (countries of the world/flags) at work to keep my mind off things.1
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Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
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How about historical general election results by constituency? That will surely kill a few hours.ozymandias said:Having to do very large Sporcle quizzes (countries of the world/flags) at work to keep my mind off things.
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Picking up in Motherwell. Oh dear, someone has turned on their outside light...they won't EVER get to the polling station....egg said:
Just shot up in Batcombe and Badgerside. Brisk too in Owlsdun.Quincel said:I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.
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Party poopers? lolMarqueeMark said:(I still have an unopened box of Theresa May Party Poopers. Didn't have the heart to set them off in 2017....)
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This happens round my way, too. I do live in a particularly low crime area, though!El_Capitano said:
The police pretty much always pop in on our local polling station whenever there's an election. Nothing sinister, just part of the "beat".Philip_Thompson said:Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.
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Hence why I've piled in on Prime Minister Berry.RobD said:
PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.
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Indeed. If we can through this election, the STW and SWP extremists are kicked out, and we get a more moderate Labour party (along the lines of Ed Milibands vein), then i'd be much more comfortable with a labour victory in 2024 or whenever.Fysics_Teacher said:
Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
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Are we expecting anyone to come in from a hard day's GOTVing with a full report a la David Herdson 2017?0
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Damps squibs now, what with this weather 'n' all?MarqueeMark said:(I still have an unopened box of Theresa May Party Poopers. Didn't have the heart to set them off in 2017....)
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I had to think for a minute. I don't know I'm afraid. 1979?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority?kinabalu said:
That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.RobD said:Everyone is spooked by 2017.
I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
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Any word from LibDem targets? St. Albans? Cheltenham? Maidenhead? (lol!)0
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I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.1
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Ha! Wait till you're retired pal, you'll never have time for such things then!ozymandias said:Having to do very large Sporcle quizzes (countries of the world/flags) at work to keep my mind off things.
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Countries of the world in alphabetical order within 20 minutes is the best one.RobD said:
How about historical general election results by constituency? That will surely kill a few hours.ozymandias said:Having to do very large Sporcle quizzes (countries of the world/flags) at work to keep my mind off things.
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Now 1.5viewcode said:
I had to think for a minute. I don't know I'm afraid. 1979?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority?kinabalu said:
That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.RobD said:Everyone is spooked by 2017.
I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.0 -
I’m not sure online betting was big then.viewcode said:
I had to think for a minute. I don't know I'm afraid. 1979?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority?kinabalu said:
That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.RobD said:Everyone is spooked by 2017.
I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.1 -
My expectation is big Con majority but It's hard to relinquish the dream of "Boris" getting the finger until it's confirmed.Razedabode said:I'm amazed that you've already got an accurate gauge of turnout and VI
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I can't beleive that.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.0
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The entire general election has to be voided IMHO
Manchester bar ordered to stop promoting free beer to those who have voted
Bock Biere Cafe was warned it would be in breach of electoral law
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/manchester-bar-voter-promotion-warning-174050720 -
This gets the woolie stamp of approvalBrom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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BONG! minus 18720 seconds0
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Says who?Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Nor me.Slackbladder said:
I can't beleive that.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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What was not acceptable was the leaking. Proper votes must be secret and not revealed until after 10 pm this evening. Not your fault, of course, but still.Big_G_NorthWales said:Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable0 -
Agree. Ed Milliband, winning would, in my opinion, have been sub optimal not a disaster. Corbyn would be an unmitigated disaster.Slackbladder said:
Indeed. If we can through this election, the STW and SWP extremists are kicked out, and we get a more moderate Labour party (along the lines of Ed Milibands vein), then i'd be much more comfortable with a labour victory in 2024 or whenever.Fysics_Teacher said:
Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
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Hang on a minute, let's check the result first...TheScreamingEagles said:The entire general election has to be voided IMHO
Manchester bar ordered to stop promoting free beer to those who have voted
Bock Biere Cafe was warned it would be in breach of electoral law
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/manchester-bar-voter-promotion-warning-174050720 -
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
Or the could be encouraged to vote because their “betrayal” could make a meaningful difference.Stark_Dawning said:Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.
Who knows? It’s all supposition at this stage and you can pick the narrative you prefer.
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Fancy their chances means they know they won't even get close, but they think it is moving in the right direction so talk it up a bit.Slackbladder said:
I can't beleive that.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Fwiw I think turnout may be down on previous GEs in my polling station. No idea what that means. 🤷♂0
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Anecdote alert. I voted at 2.21 in bright and sunny Bristol. Absolutely dead. No cars in community centre car park. The building appeared deserted, I followed the POLLING signs, just echo of my heels on the floor. Got impression I woke the ladies up as I squeaked the door open. They blinked started eyes at me and one of them yawned.egg said:
Just shot up in Batcombe and Badgerside. Brisk too in Owlsdun.Quincel said:I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.
As normal I tried to make voting last as long as possible, reading five options through twice and carefully and deliberately crossed the paper and neatly folded it twice. 28 seconds in all. The paper thudded onto bottom of the box like there was nothing else in it. This is a polling station in the centre of the city of Bristol. I fear for democracy having a GE on national Christmas party day (aka Drunktank Festival) When hangovers wear off tomorrow the under 60’s will discover the over sixties have elected a government in their absence.0 -
As I say, they fancy it. Not saying it'll happen though.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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It does look as if turnout could be lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
Still need more reports from Wales.0 -
Bet 365 odds of Labour to cross 35% of the vote share has fallen from 2/1 to 6/40
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It would be hilarious. I hope that at least one channel has Burgeon, McDonnell, or Abbott on tv as that result comes in.RobD said:
Can you imagine if the first declaration is a Tory gain. Utter bombshell.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Who’s ‘they’?Brom said:
As I say, they fancy it. Not saying it'll happen though.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Fysics_Teacher said:
I’m not sure online betting was big then.viewcode said:
I had to think for a minute. I don't know I'm afraid. 1979?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority?kinabalu said:
That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.RobD said:Everyone is spooked by 2017.
I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
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Based on?WhisperingOracle said:It does look as if turnout is lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
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What constituency? Lab area or Tory?brokenwheel said:Fwiw I think turnout may be down on previous GEs in my polling station. No idea what that means. 🤷♂
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Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’0 -
Maybe not such a stretch if some labour voters simply stay at home, like the tories did in 1997.Nobidexx said:
Seems like a stretch. I could see them taking it on a 13-14% lead, but that'd require a polling error in favor of the tories this time.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
We will see.0 -
Well the polling errors have flip flopped between the two main parties for the past quite a few election, last time was Labour's turn...Nobidexx said:
Seems like a stretch. I could see them taking it on a 13-14% lead, but that'd require a polling error in favor of the tories this time.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Boris just mailed me. Jezza hasn't stopped mailing my wife (who is a Labour member). Both sides seem to be very busy, though only the Tories were active at the polling station.0
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Exactly why these are such a tense (!) few hours. Very hard to get through. How are you getting through them?Drutt said:I've obviously pinched these figures from someone else's tweet but, if the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2017, we're looking at Con maj ~10.
If the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2015, we're looking at Con maj ~110.
Blimey0 -
Classic GOTV, but you must do your duty and vote LD.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’0 -
TSE's favourite, Rochester and Strood, so not a marginal. Tory ward.Gallowgate said:
What constituency? Lab area or Tory?brokenwheel said:Fwiw I think turnout may be down on previous GEs in my polling station. No idea what that means. 🤷♂
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Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .Pulpstar said:
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !nico67 said:It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .0 -
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I think it’s a great idea. Polling staff stamp something and it allows you to get a free beer.RobD said:
Hang on a minute, let's check the result first...TheScreamingEagles said:The entire general election has to be voided IMHO
Manchester bar ordered to stop promoting free beer to those who have voted
Bock Biere Cafe was warned it would be in breach of electoral law
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/manchester-bar-voter-promotion-warning-174050720 -
Look how often & for how long the Con maj price has bounced around 1.5. The commentary is about as insightful now as it was when it started
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Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.0 -
Well, in Guildford I have no idea about voting patterns but I can confirm that the Conservative ground operation is so absent that they did not have a teller at my polling station in Merrow - the first time since I moved here in 2001. Probably reflects the defection of many activists over Milton's treatment but not good. Knocking up going on by LDs (although fact that they came to us when their teller noted us at 11.00am suggests either excess resource and/or poor management), but no visits from Conservatives (and I live on a very Conservative road and display no party signs). As usual Labour are completely absent (rumour has it that the 2016 fire in Shalford was the ritual burning of the last socialist in SurreyMarqueeMark said:Any word from LibDem targets? St. Albans? Cheltenham? Maidenhead? (lol!)
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Turnout in the north going down could be good or bad. Good because it might mean voters stay home than vote Tory. Bad because it might mean Tories end up winning by default.0
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Yeah? And your point is?Nobidexx said:
Seems like a stretch. I could see them taking it on a 13-14% lead, but that'd require a polling error in favor of the tories this time.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Tonight, we will discover that former Labour voters are splitting into two camps
a ) those voting for Boris
b ) those voting for none of the buggers.1 -
I agree about the leaking but they are a proper votekinabalu said:
What was not acceptable was the leaking. Proper votes must be secret and not revealed until after 10 pm this evening. Not your fault, of course, but still.Big_G_NorthWales said:Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable0 -
Much as I'd love this to be true I've heard thjs at every election since 2010.Gallowgate said:
Says who?Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Tory ceiling can't be much more than 17k and hard to see Lab below that.0 -
Trying to process through media photography and twitter anecdata, and comparing it with London reports. Yet to see any reports of really noticeable provincial nothern turnout, but these could come later on, or retropectively.RobD said:
Based on?WhisperingOracle said:It does look as if turnout is lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
Obviously, as you're implying, though, all these can be deceptive, and even collating and comparing all the anecdata this early should be handled with care.0 -
I think at this stage it’s more GOTV.Benpointer said:
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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At 6:26am today James Cleverley told me "we’re expecting a very high Labour turnout", so their canvassing data is obviously top notch.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’0 -
Owen Jones has tweeted asking voters to vote for Karl Turner in Hull East....HmmmGallowgate said:
Who’s ‘they’?Brom said:
As I say, they fancy it. Not saying it'll happen though.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Only a 10k majority.PrinceofTaranto said:
Owen Jones has tweeted asking voters to vote for Karl Turner in Hull East....HmmmGallowgate said:
Who’s ‘they’?Brom said:
As I say, they fancy it. Not saying it'll happen though.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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The staff get distracted by the dog humping the table leg whilst Boris humps the other leg.Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.
That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?0 -
Lab managed 20k in 2015 and 19k in 2010.midwinter said:
Much as I'd love this to be true I've heard thjs at every election since 2010.Gallowgate said:
Says who?Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Tory ceiling can't be much more than 17k and hard to see Lab below that.0 -
Wrong. Elective postal voting is a bit of Blair era gerrymandering with which no true Conservative should have any truck.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
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My feelings entirely. Sadly I don't have the chance to vote to remove Raab.WhisperingOracle said:0 -
On the other hand, they're not going to say...'We got this, it's all ok to not turn up..'Jamei said:
At 6:26am today James Cleverley told me "we’re expecting a very high Labour turnout", so their canvassing data is obviously top notch.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson has just personally told me this
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’1 -
Not to be Debbie Downer but we heard than 2 years agoAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Seriously? End of days stuff, if so.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
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Obviously such things are not designed to cause somebody to suddenly switch their view, they're part of the ongoing process of building an image or brand, or just getting more visibility.Benpointer said:
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?0
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The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.isam said:Look how often & for how long the Con maj price has bounced around 1.5. The commentary is about as insightful now as it was when it started
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Behave. This is PB on Election Day, everyone in competition to say the silliest unsourced rumour.Fysics_Teacher said:
Nor me.Slackbladder said:
I can't beleive that.Brom said:Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Mind you IDS and Raab do seem to be in trouble. But it’s the ones party members fear in trouble that get the work to survive that isn’t blindside shock.
How popular is Mogg amongst Tory voters in general. If you think Tony Benn, party members and activities adored him, but ordinary voters rejected him.0 -
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.0 -
I didn’t say I thought it would make much difference, I said it was clever electioneering. Gets him on telly a bit more on the day in a favourable way.Benpointer said:
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"Time_to_Leave said:Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
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He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjobkle4 said:Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?
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Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they actually go ahead and do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?Philip_Thompson said:Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
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7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.noneoftheabove said:
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal votenoneoftheabove said:
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.0 -
It's good for the rural interest.IshmaelZ said:
Wrong. Elective postal voting is a bit of Blair era gerrymandering with which no true Conservative should have any truck.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabledkinabalu said:
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?Richard_Tyndall said:No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
How are you calling it btw?
Sorry but that is not really acceptable0 -
Here in Los Angeles, the only question I've had was "So, your election's between a clown and an anti-semite, right?"0
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Will those people go to the ballot box? might be a more pertinent question than will they vote Tory...kinabalu said:
Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they really do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?Philip_Thompson said:Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
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