Everybody got their party poppers ready for the exit poll?
BONG...................
"Our exit poll is predicting that Boris Johnson will remain the Prime Minister with a majority of....that can't be right? Have you checked it? Really....? Fuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkkk......."
It would be nice to hear them say Tory landslide, that is true.
Everybody got their party poppers ready for the exit poll?
BONG...................
"Our exit poll is predicting that Boris Johnson will remain the Prime Minister with a majority of....that can't be right? Have you checked it? Really....? Fuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkkk......."
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.
I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.
Just shot up in Batcombe and Badgerside. Brisk too in Owlsdun.
Picking up in Motherwell. Oh dear, someone has turned on their outside light...they won't EVER get to the polling station....
Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.
The police pretty much always pop in on our local polling station whenever there's an election. Nothing sinister, just part of the "beat".
This happens round my way, too. I do live in a particularly low crime area, though!
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.
Indeed. If we can through this election, the STW and SWP extremists are kicked out, and we get a more moderate Labour party (along the lines of Ed Milibands vein), then i'd be much more comfortable with a labour victory in 2024 or whenever.
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
What was not acceptable was the leaking. Proper votes must be secret and not revealed until after 10 pm this evening. Not your fault, of course, but still.
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
Yes. We are worried that you are in the same place we were in 2015. I was not fussed if Miliband won. I’m much less sanguine about a Corbyn victory.
Indeed. If we can through this election, the STW and SWP extremists are kicked out, and we get a more moderate Labour party (along the lines of Ed Milibands vein), then i'd be much more comfortable with a labour victory in 2024 or whenever.
Agree. Ed Milliband, winning would, in my opinion, have been sub optimal not a disaster. Corbyn would be an unmitigated disaster.
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.
Or the could be encouraged to vote because their “betrayal” could make a meaningful difference.
Who knows? It’s all supposition at this stage and you can pick the narrative you prefer.
I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.
Just shot up in Batcombe and Badgerside. Brisk too in Owlsdun.
Anecdote alert. I voted at 2.21 in bright and sunny Bristol. Absolutely dead. No cars in community centre car park. The building appeared deserted, I followed the POLLING signs, just echo of my heels on the floor. Got impression I woke the ladies up as I squeaked the door open. They blinked started eyes at me and one of them yawned. As normal I tried to make voting last as long as possible, reading five options through twice and carefully and deliberately crossed the paper and neatly folded it twice. 28 seconds in all. The paper thudded onto bottom of the box like there was nothing else in it. This is a polling station in the centre of the city of Bristol. I fear for democracy having a GE on national Christmas party day (aka Drunktank Festival) When hangovers wear off tomorrow the under 60’s will discover the over sixties have elected a government in their absence.
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
Boris just mailed me. Jezza hasn't stopped mailing my wife (who is a Labour member). Both sides seem to be very busy, though only the Tories were active at the polling station.
I've obviously pinched these figures from someone else's tweet but, if the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2017, we're looking at Con maj ~10.
If the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2015, we're looking at Con maj ~110.
Blimey
Exactly why these are such a tense (!) few hours. Very hard to get through. How are you getting through them?
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected. Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
Any word from LibDem targets? St. Albans? Cheltenham? Maidenhead? (lol!)
Well, in Guildford I have no idea about voting patterns but I can confirm that the Conservative ground operation is so absent that they did not have a teller at my polling station in Merrow - the first time since I moved here in 2001. Probably reflects the defection of many activists over Milton's treatment but not good. Knocking up going on by LDs (although fact that they came to us when their teller noted us at 11.00am suggests either excess resource and/or poor management), but no visits from Conservatives (and I live on a very Conservative road and display no party signs). As usual Labour are completely absent (rumour has it that the 2016 fire in Shalford was the ritual burning of the last socialist in Surrey )
Turnout in the north going down could be good or bad. Good because it might mean voters stay home than vote Tory. Bad because it might mean Tories end up winning by default.
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
What was not acceptable was the leaking. Proper votes must be secret and not revealed until after 10 pm this evening. Not your fault, of course, but still.
I agree about the leaking but they are a proper vote
Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Says who?
Much as I'd love this to be true I've heard thjs at every election since 2010. Tory ceiling can't be much more than 17k and hard to see Lab below that.
It does look as if turnout is lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.
Based on?
Trying to process through media photography and twitter anecdata, and comparing it with London reports. Yet to see any reports of really noticeable provincial nothern turnout, but these could come later on, or retropectively.
Obviously, as you're implying, though, all these can be deceptive, and even collating and comparing all the anecdata this early should be handled with care.
Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
Says who?
Much as I'd love this to be true I've heard thjs at every election since 2010. Tory ceiling can't be much more than 17k and hard to see Lab below that.
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
Wrong. Elective postal voting is a bit of Blair era gerrymandering with which no true Conservative should have any truck.
Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"
Obviously such things are not designed to cause somebody to suddenly switch their view, they're part of the ongoing process of building an image or brand, or just getting more visibility.
Look how often & for how long the Con maj price has bounced around 1.5. The commentary is about as insightful now as it was when it started
The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.
Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.
I can't beleive that.
Nor me.
Behave. This is PB on Election Day, everyone in competition to say the silliest unsourced rumour. Mind you IDS and Raab do seem to be in trouble. But it’s the ones party members fear in trouble that get the work to survive that isn’t blindside shock. How popular is Mogg amongst Tory voters in general. If you think Tony Benn, party members and activities adored him, but ordinary voters rejected him.
Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.
Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"
I didn’t say I thought it would make much difference, I said it was clever electioneering. Gets him on telly a bit more on the day in a favourable way.
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they actually go ahead and do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.
No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?
How are you calling it btw?
Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled
Sorry but that is not really acceptable
Wrong. Elective postal voting is a bit of Blair era gerrymandering with which no true Conservative should have any truck.
Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they really do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?
Will those people go to the ballot box? might be a more pertinent question than will they vote Tory...
Comments
I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.
I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
Manchester bar ordered to stop promoting free beer to those who have voted
Bock Biere Cafe was warned it would be in breach of electoral law
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/manchester-bar-voter-promotion-warning-17405072
Fruit producing countries!
https://www.sporcle.com/games/PumpkinBomb/fruit
Who knows? It’s all supposition at this stage and you can pick the narrative you prefer.
As normal I tried to make voting last as long as possible, reading five options through twice and carefully and deliberately crossed the paper and neatly folded it twice. 28 seconds in all. The paper thudded onto bottom of the box like there was nothing else in it. This is a polling station in the centre of the city of Bristol. I fear for democracy having a GE on national Christmas party day (aka Drunktank Festival) When hangovers wear off tomorrow the under 60’s will discover the over sixties have elected a government in their absence.
Still need more reports from Wales.
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
We will see.
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
Tonight, we will discover that former Labour voters are splitting into two camps
a ) those voting for Boris
b ) those voting for none of the buggers.
Tory ceiling can't be much more than 17k and hard to see Lab below that.
Obviously, as you're implying, though, all these can be deceptive, and even collating and comparing all the anecdata this early should be handled with care.
That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?
Mind you IDS and Raab do seem to be in trouble. But it’s the ones party members fear in trouble that get the work to survive that isn’t blindside shock.
How popular is Mogg amongst Tory voters in general. If you think Tony Benn, party members and activities adored him, but ordinary voters rejected him.
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.