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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited December 2019

    Bishop Auckland nailed on Con gain. Heard from both sides.

    Tories really would be facing a shocker if they don't win Bishop. Darlington also likely to go if they get even a minimal majority.
    Yeah all the Lab activists I know are in Darlo today.
    Wasted effort I'd say. Being out in this and then losing makes for the shittiest of shit days.

    Voting "very brisk" in Brixham. Not good news for Dr. Sarah Wollaston (unless our canvass returns are a load of bollocks).
    If that was the case maybe they’d be in Sedgefield or Sunderland Central...
    The weather in Darlington is grey and it's not due to rain until 12 ish.

    Also Darlington is easy to get people to - you can drop them off in an area and leave them to it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573

    Terrible thread article - the sun rises in the west, not the south

    Did you mean to say East? Anyway at this time of year it’s more like southeast.
    It rises over the south coast region before most of the rest of the country this time of year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853

    Pulpstar said:

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
    Barnsley East. Irrelevant for the overall result, but the motivation to vote early that I mention is probably relevant everywhere.
    I've backed labour in Barnsley Central, hoping the collapse isn't err... Toooo large
  • Down here in Richmond Park voting was quiet at a quarter past eight. Arguably more of a marginal of Battersea (which is not so far away) so the difference is rather stark...

    Very key for the LD's.
    Even if the worst pollster for the LDs (Survation, 9%) is right they should take Richmond relatively comfortably. Even if they did slightly worse than in 2017 (say 7%) they should still win it as their voter distribution is likely to skew towards heavily remain seats. I'd be very, very surprised if they failed to take it (and that'd definitely mean less than 10 seats for them).

    Given the bad polls they've had recently, I feel like seats such as Carshalton, Cheltenham and Westmorland should be the key ones to watch.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    I’m intending to trust the exit poll tbh. The whole psychology is different than polling.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited December 2019
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Could well be a case of Labour piling up votes in inner cities again.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
  • TOPPING said:

    I went for spoiling my ballot in the end. If I was in a marginal I would have voted (tactically for whoever could beat Labour), but as nobody can do that here I went with my main view which is none of the above at the moment.

    First time since the early 90's that I have not voted for someone at a general or local election.

    I couldn't think of anything funny, so just did a line through the paper.

    Very sorry to hear that. As we are all aware on here voting is a special event and imbued with tremendous meaning. It is awful that someone should find no other option than to spoil their ballot.
    I think ballot spoiling is a very legitimate statement. Far better than those that opt not to vote. You made the effort to attend, but did not endorse any of them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    Brom said:

    Could well be a case of Labour piling up votes in inner cities again.

    When they are already getting 80% how much more can they pile up?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    It does bear pointing out that the recently unearthed antisemitic character that Boris Johnson seems to have penned in his novel seems a bit more specific than that.

    Having said that, and without wanting to stifle, it would be good if we could have a bit less of a campaign day here today.
    See above on mitigators of antisemitism.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Seems very strange that Tory majority drifting so much yet Lab vote share over 35% not shortening. Who knows what these movements are all about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,343
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Alternatively, Labour could just do something about the anti-semites in the party and stop this line of attack dead.

    I have a Jewish friend who is ready to push the button on moving his family to Switzerland, if Labour gets anywhere near power. That he has had to plan this is a damning indictment on Corbyn's Labour. I can only hope that tonight Labour get soundly beaten - and the calculation at the top of the party that they gain net votes from their unrestricted anti-Israel stance gets knocked all out of whack.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,799

    Brom said:

    Could well be a case of Labour piling up votes in inner cities again.

    When they are already getting 80% how much more can they pile up?
    They will be getting 80% in only a handful of seats, surely.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    Was that last Ipsos/Mori not published yet ?
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    Pulpstar said:

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
    Barnsley East. Irrelevant for the overall result, but the motivation to vote early that I mention is probably relevant everywhere.
    Within striking distance...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    Yep it's moving as we speak. Someone nervous.

    Day before polling day in 2017 Cons were 2/9 for OM. Maybe it's a "technical" once bitten reaction?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Chris me old mucker, he is an anti-semitic fucker. You can but this but that all you like but he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened.
    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Just saying something over and over again doesn't make it true. And I have to ask why - if there were any genuine evidence - people would be lying in the first place.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    Is the Labour and Lib Dem candidate a Corbynite? Steve Baker would not be a loss to the Conservative Party. In my opinion he and the other ERG headcases are not Conservatives.
  • In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    The damning part is that whilst Labour is riddled with anti-semitism, they are still a better option than what the Conservatives have become.

    Grim.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    Indeed it was. As you say, glorious morning and most people I worked with (in the NHS) had voted Labour.
    Oh God I remember that day, in my last year at college. The sun was shining, everyone was smiling, politically it was the happiest day of my life.
    A wonderful day for sure. Today won't be a patch on it, whatever your political persuasions, whatever the result.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited December 2019
    Or you can still book and do the reverse - the last 125 journeys after 40 odd years.
    https://www.ukrailtours.com/product/the-lner-hst-farewell/
  • IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    Sorry to show my ignorance, as though I love the political insights this site brings I do not bet. What does that infer?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    Belatedly, perhaps this is the effect of work Christmas party season. Thursday is a popular day.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Alternatively, Labour could just do something about the anti-semites in the party and stop this line of attack dead.

    I have a Jewish friend who is ready to push the button on moving his family to Switzerland, if Labour gets anywhere near power. That he has had to plan this is a damning indictment on Corbyn's Labour. I can only hope that tonight Labour get soundly beaten - and the calculation at the top of the party that they gain net votes from their unrestricted anti-Israel stance gets knocked all out of whack.
    Conversely, my Jewish wife who hasn't voted Labour since 2005, tells me she's just dropped in her vote for Corbyn on the way to work ( Camden / St Pancras ).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751

    TOPPING said:

    I went for spoiling my ballot in the end. If I was in a marginal I would have voted (tactically for whoever could beat Labour), but as nobody can do that here I went with my main view which is none of the above at the moment.

    First time since the early 90's that I have not voted for someone at a general or local election.

    I couldn't think of anything funny, so just did a line through the paper.

    Very sorry to hear that. As we are all aware on here voting is a special event and imbued with tremendous meaning. It is awful that someone should find no other option than to spoil their ballot.
    I think ballot spoiling is a very legitimate statement. Far better than those that opt not to vote. You made the effort to attend, but did not endorse any of them.
    Yes, if we could have no one winning as a result. But someone has to win and hence we have (imo) no option but to take part.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    MORI?
    This cant be just profit taking surely
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Alternatively, Labour could just do something about the anti-semites in the party and stop this line of attack dead.
    Certainly you can criticise Labour and Corbyn himself for a failure to deal with anti-semitism. But that's not the same as Corbyn being an antisemite.

    Any more than a failure to deal with prejudice against Muslims in the Conservative Party makes Boris Johnson - or Sajid Javid for that matter - an Islamophobe.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573
    O/T Anyone else having issues with Safari and PB.com? I have had to switch to Chrome to get PB login to work on my Macbook.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    1 *percentage point* - it's a 3% difference /pedant

    Although, to be fair, the bar chart itself looks to have a proper scale from zero and everything, so better than LDs in that respect ;-)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Alternatively, Labour could just do something about the anti-semites in the party and stop this line of attack dead.

    I have a Jewish friend who is ready to push the button on moving his family to Switzerland, if Labour gets anywhere near power. That he has had to plan this is a damning indictment on Corbyn's Labour. I can only hope that tonight Labour get soundly beaten - and the calculation at the top of the party that they gain net votes from their unrestricted anti-Israel stance gets knocked all out of whack.
    Conversely, my Jewish wife who hasn't voted Labour since 2005, tells me she's just dropped in her vote for Corbyn on the way to work ( Camden ).
    Yep. I’m Jewish and have never voted Labour at a GE until today.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    Maybe you are a fool after all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    edited December 2019

    O/T Anyone else having issues with Safari and PB.com? I have had to switch to Chrome to get PB login to work on my Macbook.

    Vanilla works fine for me with Safari on both phone and iPad.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    The blue wall on Con Maj breached

    WTF is this.

    1.53 surely now value
  • Wife voting Tory for first ever time, son voting same, i will strike through each name with great glee -- all irrelevant as in safe Tory Cheshire seat.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
    Barnsley East. Irrelevant for the overall result, but the motivation to vote early that I mention is probably relevant everywhere.
    I've backed labour in Barnsley Central, hoping the collapse isn't err... Toooo large
    I honestly don't think either of the Barnsley constituencies will even be close.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Chris me old mucker, he is an anti-semitic fucker. You can but this but that all you like but he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened.
    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Just saying something over and over again doesn't make it true. And I have to ask why - if there were any genuine evidence - people would be lying in the first place.

    I am prepared to believe that he is not anti-semitic towards individual Jews.

    But he is certainly anti-Israel (the Jewish state) and has associated with people who have celebrated the death of Jews. Some of his Party, meanwhile, have been none too careful about the distinction between Israel and the Jews and have realised that this is by and large without consequence.

    So my words were "has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened" and they are true and in my book, together with those associations, that makes him an anti-semite.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    No other candidates?

    Seriously, should be a pretty safe seat, shouldn't it - if Lab down much more than Cons nationally since 2017? But I'm assuming you're saying you voted tactically.
  • Selebian said:

    1 *percentage point* - it's a 3% difference /pedant

    Although, to be fair, the bar chart itself looks to have a proper scale from zero and everything, so better than LDs in that respect ;-)
    The SNP muppets have indicated to Scottish Tories that if they are genuine unionists they should vote LD
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    The damning part is that whilst Labour is riddled with anti-semitism, they are still a better option than what the Conservatives have become.

    Grim.
    Only in your own head are they the better option.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    He is. The origin of the entwined anti-Israel, antisemitic position is quite simply Stalin, and it is not the case that Stalinism is something alien to Corbyn personally which he has to tolerate to keep the party together.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I've thought she was in trouble the whole campaign. The last set of polling is terrible for her party. I am predicting an SNP gain here.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    nunu2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    The damning part is that whilst Labour is riddled with anti-semitism, they are still a better option than what the Conservatives have become.

    Grim.
    Only in your own head are they the better option.
    Insightful.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    matt said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    Belatedly, perhaps this is the effect of work Christmas party season. Thursday is a popular day.
    Indeed. Ours is tonight. Im too old for that sort of thing so doing the night shift. Will vote at teatime as the voting portacabin is by the chippy. Happy days.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    Is the Labour and Lib Dem candidate a Corbynite? Steve Baker would not be a loss to the Conservative Party. In my opinion he and the other ERG headcases are not Conservatives.
    It’s a bit late to try to get me to change my mind.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Selebian said:

    1 *percentage point* - it's a 3% difference /pedant

    Although, to be fair, the bar chart itself looks to have a proper scale from zero and everything, so better than LDs in that respect ;-)
    Amateurs!
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017

    By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

    I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

    It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

    If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
    Ein Land. Ein Volk...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    He is. The origin of the entwined anti-Israel, antisemitic position is quite simply Stalin, and it is not the case that Stalinism is something alien to Corbyn personally which he has to tolerate to keep the party together.
    You can convince us in a moment if you have any real evidence of personal anti-semitism on Corbyn's part.

    Go on, please be my guest!

    But if that lie you posted before is the best you can do, we can conclude you have no evidence.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    1.57
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Great article. Thanks guys. So useful.
  • Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    I think that is reason enough to suspect he MIGHT be anti-Semitic, which is bad enough. He has had plenty of time to prove that he is not and he has failed. Allowing racism to continue in your organisation is in practice worse then secretly harbouring racist views, though it is safe to conclude that the two things generally go together.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    He is. The origin of the entwined anti-Israel, antisemitic position is quite simply Stalin, and it is not the case that Stalinism is something alien to Corbyn personally which he has to tolerate to keep the party together.
    You can convince us in a moment if you have any real evidence of personal anti-semitism on Corbyn's part.

    Go on, please be my guest!

    But if that lie you posted before is the best you can do, we can conclude you have no evidence.
    There is literally no point having this debate you know.
  • murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    In what way was the Second World War "self inflicted"?
    We started it.
    No. The Germans invaded Poland :)
    Which had no relevance to the UK.... we chose to poke our oar in. Something that hasn't changed
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,343
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.
    So you claim to have an alibi?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Personal anecdote.

    Well that was the most difficult vote I've ever cast. Stood staring at the ballot paper for quite a while, my 10 year old daughter silently judging me at my elbow.

    Labour - led by economically insane racist lunatic
    Conservative - led by populist lying racist lunatic
    Lib Dem - incompetent and confused over what does and does not constitute a 'woman'
    Green - mental crypto-communist
    Brexit - mental crypto-fascist

    Came very close to spoiling the paper for the first time ever, but my judgemental offspring meant I had to do something positive so I took the rather feeble option of the Lib Dems.

    [Station was just as busy as 2017 (maybe a bit quieter), current Labour candidate is fairly anti-Corbyn with a mid-size majority]
  • Former parliamentry candidate and occasional TV personality David Bellamy has popped his clogs :disappointed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50752089

    Again?
    Die early, die often.
    Did he make a habit of dying?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Could there be profit taking in the betting markets?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,799

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    In what way was the Second World War "self inflicted"?
    We started it.
    No. The Germans invaded Poland :)
    Which had no relevance to the UK.... we chose to poke our oar in. Something that hasn't changed
    We had guaranteed their independence, that's why it was relevant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573

    Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    Is the Labour and Lib Dem candidate a Corbynite? Steve Baker would not be a loss to the Conservative Party. In my opinion he and the other ERG headcases are not Conservatives.
    It’s a bit late to try to get me to change my mind.
    I'd expect a physics teacher to apply a bit more logic, just saying.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    1.57

    Damn that Mori must be really bad for Tories.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    nunu2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    The damning part is that whilst Labour is riddled with anti-semitism, they are still a better option than what the Conservatives have become.

    Grim.
    Only in your own head are they the better option.
    Insightful.
    Yes, your self hatred is very telling.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    Is the Labour and Lib Dem candidate a Corbynite? Steve Baker would not be a loss to the Conservative Party. In my opinion he and the other ERG headcases are not Conservatives.
    It’s a bit late to try to get me to change my mind.
    indeed! Maybe next time, which is probably about a year away if my guess is anywhere near accurate.
  • The problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party is, if it really were just a few extremist on the fringe of the party, surely a quick and robust expulsion would solve the problem over the course of a few months. The fact that is has not been dealt with, and in many cases actually got worse over 4 years, means one of 3 things.

    The party are totally inept and dealing with the issue and can't even sort some extremists out of the fringe.

    The problem is actually way way worse than anyone in Labour wants to admit and despite real efforts to get it under control the cancer has spread too far.

    Or they are turning a blind eye to it all, as those in power do not actually see it as a problem, which is probably the worst possible outcome.

    Either way, absolutely shameful.
  • wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.

    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Chris me old mucker, he is an anti-semitic fucker. You can but this but that all you like but he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened.
    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Just saying something over and over again doesn't make it true. And I have to ask why - if there were any genuine evidence - people would be lying in the first place.

    I am prepared to believe that he is not anti-semitic towards individual Jews.

    But he is certainly anti-Israel (the Jewish state) and has associated with people who have celebrated the death of Jews. Some of his Party, meanwhile, have been none too careful about the distinction between Israel and the Jews and have realised that this is by and large without consequence.

    So my words were "has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened" and they are true and in my book, together with those associations, that makes him an anti-semite.
    But you don't know of any evidence of personal anti-semitism on his part?

    Because if anyone does, I would genuinely like to hear it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573

    The blue wall on Con Maj breached

    WTF is this.

    1.53 surely now value

    Nice ramping! :wink:
  • No overall majority to 3 on Ladbrokes, was 3.5 earlier.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The Betfair movement must be either some shenanigans with the stock markets or someone must have insider knowledge. Huge movements.

    It can't be based on high turnout in safe Lab seats in London because that isn't necessarily a good thing for Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Couldn't resist.

    Con Maj on at 1.57
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,799

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    I think there's only one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    He is. The origin of the entwined anti-Israel, antisemitic position is quite simply Stalin, and it is not the case that Stalinism is something alien to Corbyn personally which he has to tolerate to keep the party together.
    You can convince us in a moment if you have any real evidence of personal anti-semitism on Corbyn's part.

    Go on, please be my guest!

    But if that lie you posted before is the best you can do, we can conclude you have no evidence.
    OK he walks, talks and squawks like a duck, consorts by preference with other ducks and gives birth to ducklings, and goes well with orange sauce and watercress, but until you can produce any *real* evidence that he is a duck...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    nunu2 said:

    nunu2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    I'm sure you aren't such a fool that you think criticising particular people is evidence of prejudice against a whole group.

    But if you aren't a fool, what does that make you?
    The argument you are making is logically indistinguishable from "I can't be antisemitic, some of my best friends are jews." A claim which is usually and correctly ridiculed.
    The damning part is that whilst Labour is riddled with anti-semitism, they are still a better option than what the Conservatives have become.

    Grim.
    Only in your own head are they the better option.
    Insightful.
    Yes, your self hatred is very telling.
    Self hatred? I don’t have any self hatred...
  • O/T Anyone else having issues with Safari and PB.com? I have had to switch to Chrome to get PB login to work on my Macbook.

    I've had to use the vanilla site for a while now.
  • felix said:

    Just voted. No queue.

    I voted last week. No queue at the postbox.
    Maybe you confused the letterbox with something else - did it try to bite you? :)
    No
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    What's this about terrible weather by the way? Just about to cross the Forth Rail Bridge and it looks even more spectacular than normal. Cold, clear and dry. A beautiful winter's morning.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
    Why did you then? You have just endorsed his world view
    Because I don’t want to endorse Corbyn’s.
    Is the Labour and Lib Dem candidate a Corbynite? Steve Baker would not be a loss to the Conservative Party. In my opinion he and the other ERG headcases are not Conservatives.
    It’s a bit late to try to get me to change my mind.
    I'd expect a physics teacher to apply a bit more logic, just saying.
    I did. But if we are using different axioms then we get different results.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 58

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,343

    IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    MORI?
    This cant be just profit taking surely
    Of course it can.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:



    Unless you give me some evidence that doesn't involve lying about what happened, I don't believe Corbyn is personally antisemitic at all.

    Absolutely he has been very critical of the State of Israel. But that's not the same at all.

    Agreed. I don't think Corbyn is personally antisemitic.

    Corbyn has however failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour party. That looks likely to be a costly error.
    He is. The origin of the entwined anti-Israel, antisemitic position is quite simply Stalin, and it is not the case that Stalinism is something alien to Corbyn personally which he has to tolerate to keep the party together.
    You can convince us in a moment if you have any real evidence of personal anti-semitism on Corbyn's part.

    Go on, please be my guest!

    But if that lie you posted before is the best you can do, we can conclude you have no evidence.
    There is literally no point having this debate you know.
    It's not really a debate. It's just some people making an assertion for which they can't produce any evidence.
  • Poruing down now in Walthamstow/Chingford.....busy at voting station in Walthamstow around 8.45
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573
    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
    matt said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    Belatedly, perhaps this is the effect of work Christmas party season. Thursday is a popular day.
    Yes, train up to London at 7.20am busier than normal today - I think it's Working From Homers going into the office as it's the Christmas party.

    Either that or they've got insight into the GE result and are scrambling for the airports....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    Obviously. The current cabinet and shadow cabinet are full of imbeciles.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Jamei said:

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
    1.3192-0.0005 (-0.0379%)
    As of 10:02AM GMT. Market open.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,343

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    This antisemitic issue was blown out of proportion and is just a stick to beat Corbyn and vilify him. Backed by the right wing press, who historically have been massive antisemites themselves
    Boris, through his own writing is a racist and an Islamophobe. Like a true right wing racist, he spared no one and then went on to attack single mums and the 20% poor or depraved sections of society, as he referred to them.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    I think that is reason enough to suspect he MIGHT be anti-Semitic, which is bad enough. He has had plenty of time to prove that he is not and he has failed. Allowing racism to continue in your organisation is in practice worse then secretly harbouring racist views, though it is safe to conclude that the two things generally go together.


    I think it is reason to suspect that Corby is not very competent or smart, actually.

    Something that is corroborated by his grasp of economics.
  • So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,573
    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
    GO's success in destroying the Lib Dems in 2015 is the reason we have the current Cabinet.
This discussion has been closed.