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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night
10.00pm GMT December 12th 2019 The Exit Poll
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I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401
I wonder how the campaign would have gone if the Tories had been campaigning strongly for remain and Labour had campaigned to leave. A lot of the rhetoric (at least on here) has been about how bad the Tories are and the need for change. I would have loved to see the tone of the comments from the left and right if the Brexit positions were reversed 😂
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19pjmPA5bAYievt7plp9SOKce4EbXBeamLmww2Ba2GCA/edit#gid=0
https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1204868698470789120?s=20
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1205030492468367362?s=20
The Scotland only poll is different.
I just don't think the Conservatives sounded very confident last night. ITV News said the same thing. Don't shoot me for passing on something that is out there.
They still put out a poll with SNP on a stonking lead after making their adjustments.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=19
I'm planning to stay up a bit this time, although woe and depression (we'll have to see what results indicate that...) may mean I don't stay up for long.
Just rejoice at that news.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20
There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
So it will all come down to SNP turnout and Unionist tactical voting.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1205032639754883072?s=20
thought they might wait until polls closed...
Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
"Here’s a clue...don’t vote for the one hiding in a fridge"
"Indiana Jones?"
If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.
My guess today is
42 tories
35 labour
11 Lib Dems
Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time - and those are the ones you want" George W. Bush
Particularly to those opposed in the minority.
Support for independence close to the 50% mark.
None of them were pro-EU
Two days off work to spend time with the little one and watch election night (didn't tell the wife though!).
Anyway, really tricky to call this election. My Tory seat projection of 315 to 360 remains in tact for now. Will try to finalise my seat projections later today (if I can be bothered!).
What is clear is that we have an appalling choice to make between our major political parties. If I was in Scotland, would vote SNP in a heartbeat - they are the only sane party in this country who are led by a competent sane leader.
Conservative (7/10)
SNP (6/10)
Labour (5/10)
LibDem (0/10)
Brexit (-10/10)
The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.
The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.
Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.
The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.
The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
So, it is no surprise that the final Electoral Calculus now shows Ceredigion being won by the Tories. (This is a seat that they have never held in modern times.)
I think if the Labour vote is as high as suggested by EC, then Plaid Cymru will likely retain the seat. The LibDems needs to get the Labour vote down to take Ceredigion.
Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.
Just saying.
Just saying.
Anyway off to telling in Epping and knocking up in Chingford and Woodford Green, see you at 10pm for the exit poll before I head to the Epping Forest count
Voted early, didn't seem too busy, but i expect a lot of working people might be tempted to do that to 'get it done' so they don't have to bother this evening.
I think a hung parliament is a possible albeit unlikely outcome, but one where Corbyn can become PM would require a massive polling error - more so than in 2015 and 2017.
Also worth remembering that boundary reviews can play havoc with tactical voting.
I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.