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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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  • IanB2 said:

    When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?

    Not allowed to do it iirc
    I love election telling folklore. Of course you can ask. And they can refuse. Tellers ask for the polling number on the top. It’s the entire purpose of telling.
    The issue is seeking to influence a voter within the precinct of a polling station. Most presiding officers, if pushed, would take the view that trying to speak to them at all on the way in is behaviour best avoided.
    It depends where they stand. If they ask you as you go in the door, I think they are breaking the law. If they ask you on the pavement away from the building that is OK.

    I am sure there is a legislated minimum distance. 100 feet or some such...
  • Apologies if this has already been signalled:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1205062739342827520
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited December 2019
    Interesting another poll where Tory number unchanged again. The only one of the polls that saw it go down was the one taken exactly at the height of the photo-gate.

    The difference in basically all the polls is really the Labour number, it is 32-33% or is it 35-36%.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    You sure that's Brixton, London
  • Do we have an ETA for Ipsos MORI?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    Why is she being allowed to put herself up to represent people if she is literally too unwell to put her shoes on the correct feet?
  • isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    There were wonderings about that before. Diabetes wasn't it?

    As much as we can argue her politics lets hope she's ok and healthy.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I won't sit comfy until I see David Herdson, Richard Nabavi and TSE ALL predict a Tory majority.
  • I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.
  • Apologies if this has already been signalled:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1205062739342827520

    Oh giddy-eye, no promises guys, but I will try and grab those and add them to my spreadsheet stuff.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I will only be relaxed when CHB predicts a CON majority!

    Loving the voting in London in the rain
  • One scenario we haven’t discussed enough.

    Tory lead circa 5% = Hefty Tory Majority
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Just looked at the Dulwich & West Norwood MRP (Brixton) surprised they have Greens on 21% and Labour on 58%. Unless someone knows local facts that is very strange. They're assuming about 8,000 voters will move from Lab to Green!
  • It is quite incredible that all the final polling (except one older poll) was good for the Tories and yet the Betfair market has drifted.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    nico67 said:

    For Labour the only crumbs .

    None of the last polls show them losing ground . They’ve either remained static or gained a few points .

    For further straw clutching , apparently there’s more danger of the Tories underperforming than over because their vote is made up of a large amount of BP and UKIP voters .

    That group were overestimated in both the 2017 GE and 2019 Euro elections , and their voters didn’t come out as they suggested they would in the polling .

    That is a logical piece of straw clutching, even if it might be nonsense. Our tellers are reporting a lot of people telling our tellers they have voted LD. However that is a self selecting sample and might be our entire vote!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Chris said:

    eristdoof said:

    Quincel said:

    So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%).

    Lets suppose the "margin of error event" happens and both the tories are down 3 and Labour are up 3 points. That makes a GB-con lead of 3 or four %points, which is easily in hung parliament teritory.
    But if we have 12 pollsters, assuming their results are unbiased, the margin of error of the average would go down below 1 point, wouldn't it?

    But still I take your earlier point that there is significant uncertainty from other sources.
    Only if they are using exactly the same modelling, sampling and weighting.

    If you have two polls, one using "correct" methodology and one "incorrect", there is no reason why the actual position should fall in between the two. The "correct" one has random error and the "incorrect" one has random error plus systemic error.

    Averaging a load of polls done in different ways is a common misunderstanding. Unless you take the view that the various methodologies themselves are a sort of induced randomness, I guess.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.

    Vot LibDem Mike. Tactical voting is wrong.

    (Then again I`m on Labour in Bedford, so perhaps abandon my principles on this occasion.)
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    IpsosMORI: 23% say they may change their mind!

    Jeez , that’s outrageous . How can you not be sure who to vote for the day before the election .
    7% apparently decide while standing in the polling booth.
    How do you measure that with any faith in the "result"?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Brom said:

    Boris 14% lead (43-29) on most capable PM in Ipsos Mori.

    Is that all.

    Both of Mrs BJs Carers were 2 of the WASPi women I did a calculation for a while ago.

    Both normally Tory.

    Both already voted Lab by the time they arrived

    £28k and £10k.

    One reckons she has persuaded lots of her mates too.

    Perhaps Yoof and WASPI could mitigate Lab. losses.
    The youth makes sense, they see hope for them, but the WASPI policy was bar none the worst and most cynical policy of the election, it's a shame if that worked.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.

    There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.

    If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
    Agree - just a fascinating stat.
    By the same token, probably a low four-figures number will have turned 18 and now be ‘nominally’ eligible.
    If you turn 18 on the day you are 'actually' eligible.
    Even if you haven’t registered?
    You can register when you are 17 so that if you are 18 you can vote.

    My youngest's birthday is in May. She missed being able to vote in the 2015 election by a few days. She was not pleased...
    An unusual number of opportunities since then though!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    MattW said:

    Fenster said:

    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.

    There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.

    If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
    A back of the iPhone calculation suggests about 200 over the country. Probably not enough to worry about...
    My mum died in late Nov after registering to vote by post, but I shredded the ballot paper.

    An election to remember. All the Ashfield Election fun and taking her clothes to the Salvation Army after voting.

    And then much of my region potentially changing its political coat for the next decade or three, in the meantime culling Corbyn's racists.
    I'm sorry for your loss.

    If you'd cast her ballot that would have been electoral fraud surely?

    I wonder if that happens much and if it gets investigated.
    Hopefully it would be rejected when the signatures don't match. Which is actually quite common nowadays.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
    Wouldn't they just hush it up until after the election?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    Forget the "maybe"
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    A Labour victory "would be a blessing for the economy compared to Hard Brexit", according to Der Spiegel, apparently today.

    And according to various City banks.
    Corbyn better than no-deal Brexit, say investment banks as anti-capitalist Labour wins unlikely new City fans

    Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.

    Unlikely as it may seem, he is now seen as the lesser of two evils by analysts at Citibank and Deutsche Bank.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/03/corbyn-better-no-deal-brexit-say-investment-banks-anti-capitalist/
    The FT said 'vote Labour' in 1997, i.e. it saw Blair as a centrist. Has it said 'vote Lib.Dem' this time?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019
    Putney is the interesting one there.

    Not only might the Tories be swept out of most of London, it has some - maybe limited potential - to tell us about some lab/con marginals outside London, too.

    However, I'm still waiting to hear something more useful from what were the BXP target seats.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    eristdoof said:

    Quincel said:

    So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%).

    Lets suppose the "margin of error event" happens and both the tories are down 3 and Labour are up 3 points. That makes a GB-con lead of 3 or four %points, which is easily in hung parliament teritory.
    But if we have 12 pollsters, assuming their results are unbiased, the margin of error of the average would go down below 1 point, wouldn't it?

    But still I take your earlier point that there is significant uncertainty from other sources.
    Only if they are using exactly the same modelling, sampling and weighting.

    If you have two polls, one using "correct" methodology and one "incorrect", there is no reason why the actual position should fall in between the two. The "correct" one has random error and the "incorrect" one has random error plus systemic error.

    Averaging a load of polls done in different ways is a common misunderstanding. Unless you take the view that the various methodologies themselves are a sort of induced randomness, I guess.
    I said "assuming their results are unbiased."

    Obviously the possibility of bias is one of the sources of uncertainty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    She looks really poorly. Maybe just a bad cold.
    What would you look like after a month locked away with Rees Mogg?
  • MattW said:

    Fenster said:

    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.

    There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.

    If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
    A back of the iPhone calculation suggests about 200 over the country. Probably not enough to worry about...
    My mum died in late Nov after registering to vote by post, but I shredded the ballot paper.

    An election to remember. All the Ashfield Election fun and taking her clothes to the Salvation Army after voting.

    And then much of my region potentially changing its political coat for the next decade or three, in the meantime culling Corbyn's racists.
    Really sorry to hear that Matt. Condolences.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    Why is she being allowed to put herself up to represent people if she is literally too unwell to put her shoes on the correct feet?
    She’s diabetic and diabetes impacts your feet a lot.

    Swelling of the feet is a common thing, so some diabetics wear different shoes depending on which foot swells up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Its all very exciting but when people genuinely think turnout is amazing and good for their side I wonder how they'll react if it turns out turnout is normal and it's a tory landslide.
  • It is quite incredible that all the final polling (except one older poll) was good for the Tories and yet the Betfair market has drifted.

    This is probably a massive betting opportunity yet in a way I am glad not to have time to think about it. It is certainly a trading opportunity as prices move in and out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    One scenario we haven’t discussed enough.

    Tory lead circa 5% = Hefty Tory Majority

    That's my Very Efficient Tory Vote scenario. Lose votes where they can afford it in the south - but lose few if any seats. Zero swing in the south, 8% up north/Wales.

    My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    One scenario we haven’t discussed enough.

    Tory lead circa 5% = Hefty Tory Majority

    and Tory lead 10% = making Baldwin blush.

    :):D
  • Stocky said:

    BF maj 1.43/1.44, with a lot of liquidity both sides.

    I`m surprised it is this high.

    Taking 1.43 side may provide yet more opportunities for trading gains with no more polls to come.

    It was at 1.55/1.56 for an hour or so this morning. Presumably the price settled down after the Mori polling figures were announced.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Are they still there, or was it just the rush before work?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Brisk turnout here in Oxfordshire despite the truly lousy weather.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited December 2019

    Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    Yep. Labour piling up votes where it does not matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Two different left shoes, looking closely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Brom said:

    Just looked at the Dulwich & West Norwood MRP (Brixton) surprised they have Greens on 21% and Labour on 58%. Unless someone knows local facts that is very strange. They're assuming about 8,000 voters will move from Lab to Green!

    Isn't one of the most prominent Green leaders standing there, Jonathan Bartley?
  • I seemed to remember in the 2016 Brexit Referendum all these tweets of massive queues, especially in London to vote.
  • Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone heard if turnout is "brisk" or "steady" ? :D


    Live opposite a Polling station.
    It's wet & windy but have never seen so many people at this time, the road is jammed & the police have come to sort it out.

    Where is this?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    One scenario we haven’t discussed enough.

    Tory lead circa 5% = Hefty Tory Majority

    That's my Very Efficient Tory Vote scenario. Lose votes where they can afford it in the south - but lose few if any seats. Zero swing in the south, 8% up north/Wales.

    My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
    Yeah, I strongly suspect that the VETV is going to unfold, lots of big majorities will be slashed.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Stocky said:

    BF maj 1.43/1.44, with a lot of liquidity both sides.

    I`m surprised it is this high.

    Taking 1.43 side may provide yet more opportunities for trading gains with no more polls to come.

    It was at 1.55/1.56 for an hour or so this morning. Presumably the price settled down after the Mori polling figures were announced.
    Yes, I got a nice bet on at 1.54 - I`ll take winnings at 1.3. I expect it to be 1.25 this evening.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    I'm using a public WIFI system which is allowing PB but blocking Betfair. With the previous one I used it was the other way round,
  • Putney Labour gain seems a good bet
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    There were wonderings about that before. Diabetes wasn't it?

    As much as we can argue her politics lets hope she's ok and healthy.
    I'm diabetic and have been for 25 years but I can still pair my shoes and get them on the right feet. Now socks .......
  • Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    Why is she being allowed to put herself up to represent people if she is literally too unwell to put her shoes on the correct feet?
    She’s diabetic and diabetes impacts your feet a lot.

    Swelling of the feet is a common thing, so some diabetics wear different shoes depending on which foot swells up.
    Oh I thought people meant ‘unwell’ as in an alcoholic, sorry
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'm using a public WIFI system which is allowing PB but blocking Betfair. With the previous one I used it was the other way round,

    Do you not use a VPN? Using public WiFi without a VPN is a bit like having a SeanT Thailand experience without protection...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Am surprised Ian Lavery hasn't mentioned Tonypandy and Churchill.

    https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1205077505163616257
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Interesting another poll where Tory number unchanged again. The only one of the polls that saw it go down was the one taken exactly at the height of the photo-gate.

    The difference in basically all the polls is really the Labour number, it is 32-33% or is it 35-36%.

    Corbyn's ratings this time are in the doldrums. Therefore Labour share should be on the lower end.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    From the Independent:

    To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?

    Not allowed to do it iirc
    I love election telling folklore. Of course you can ask. And they can refuse. Tellers ask for the polling number on the top. It’s the entire purpose of telling.
    The issue is seeking to influence a voter within the precinct of a polling station. Most presiding officers, if pushed, would take the view that trying to speak to them at all on the way in is behaviour best avoided.
    It depends where they stand. If they ask you as you go in the door, I think they are breaking the law. If they ask you on the pavement away from the building that is OK.

    I am sure there is a legislated minimum distance. 100 feet or some such...
    As I said, it's the precinct of the polling station.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    There were wonderings about that before. Diabetes wasn't it?

    As much as we can argue her politics lets hope she's ok and healthy.
    The odd shoes suggest she might have a swollen foot, one possible symptom of her diabetes. Or maybe she has gout. But that would probably need a stick.

    Or she could just be turning into Mad Multiple-Cat Woman.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kjh said:

    nico67 said:

    For Labour the only crumbs .

    None of the last polls show them losing ground . They’ve either remained static or gained a few points .

    For further straw clutching , apparently there’s more danger of the Tories underperforming than over because their vote is made up of a large amount of BP and UKIP voters .

    That group were overestimated in both the 2017 GE and 2019 Euro elections , and their voters didn’t come out as they suggested they would in the polling .

    That is a logical piece of straw clutching, even if it might be nonsense. Our tellers are reporting a lot of people telling our tellers they have voted LD. However that is a self selecting sample and might be our entire vote!
    Thanks ! The thing about the Tories underperforming isn’t me in desperation straw clutch mode but a professor of politics at Southampton University . Will Jennings is his name and he’s on twitter .
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I seemed to remember in the 2016 Brexit Referendum all these tweets of massive queues, especially in London to vote.

    Yes. I'm definitely getting 2016 deja vu.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    New thread.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    RobD said:

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    From the Independent:

    To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
    Crikey. If that was enforced, most people's twitter feeds would disqualify them from voting...
  • isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    She doesn't exactly follow in the mould of former Home Secretary Theresa May as regards wearing classy footwear does she?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    Maybe she isn't terribly well.
    Why is she being allowed to put herself up to represent people if she is literally too unwell to put her shoes on the correct feet?
    She’s diabetic and diabetes impacts your feet a lot.

    Swelling of the feet is a common thing, so some diabetics wear different shoes depending on which foot swells up.
    I think she is Type II - and the swelling would likely be a consequence of a different complication or a side effect of a peripheral injury which for diabetics are more common / serious, and harder to detect.

    Ask me about it - currently having a dressing changed on a burn every 48 hours from overhot wok-fat. As a D1 I get to have it done at the surgery.

    However, swelling is better than Long John Silver style peg-legs, which can be an eventual consequence, particularly observable near hospitals with amputation specialists. Royal London is one, iirc :-) .

    This is cruel by Guido, and goes too far.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Hahahaha Labour's rise is coming from London and the south. They are fecked
  • The world is turned upside down. I was talking to a colleague in his late fifties who has been a lifelong Labour voter, but this morning he voted Conservative (not even LibDem!) because he thinks the Labour Party has become such a sewer. Meanwhile I'm a lifelong Conservative voter who voted LibDem.

    It's a funny old world to be sure
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.

    The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
  • I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.

    Mike I know you have held back from a tactical vote for Labour for very good reasons. But Bedford is on a knife edge according to the YG MRP. If you can bear to hold your nose and vote Labour to deny Johnson the majority he will use to deliver a ruinous Brexit I would beg you to do so. But if you can't I would understand. Whatever you do, I am sure you will make what you consider the best call. Voting is always an amazing feeling. Good luck!
  • In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.

    I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.

    I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP and Yorkshire Party.
  • IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    IpsosMORI: 23% say they may change their mind!

    Jeez , that’s outrageous . How can you not be sure who to vote for the day before the election .
    7% apparently decide while standing in the polling booth.
    How do you measure that with any faith in the "result"?
    Hope that they split in line with those that did know before going in. Even if they don’t it would be unlikely that all 7% would go the same way.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Not just London. Don't think my low turnout is going to be correct.

    If was a tory I'd be a bit edgy right now.

    https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    I recall seeing a sponsored advert encouraging those responsible for caring for those with learning difficulties to get them registered and get them to vote (without steering them in any direction!!!)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    nunu2 said:

    Hahahaha Labour's rise is coming from London and the south. They are fecked
    https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    Not just London. Don't think my low turnout is going to be correct.

    If was a tory I'd be a bit edgy right now.

    https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20

    Ahh yes, that well known Lab/Con marginal Manchester Central.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Not just London. Don't think my low turnout is going to be correct.

    If was a tory I'd be a bit edgy right now.

    https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20

    High turnout across the country surely helps the Conservatives? Getting traditional non-voters to vote helped flip the EU referendum.

    Besides 'massive queues to vote' is a story that happens every single election, and I'm not sure that the Tories were ever really in the race for Manchester central or Brixton.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.

    What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?

    My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?

    I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
    I recall seeing a sponsored advert encouraging those responsible for caring for those with learning difficulties to get them registered and get them to vote (without steering them in any direction!!!)
    Recently I have been dealing with Powers of Attorney. I would think if someone has capacity not to have one of those, then they are competent to vote.
  • Putney rise is a good sign for Labour gains if my theory that the red wall doesn’t collapse is correct
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm using a public WIFI system which is allowing PB but blocking Betfair. With the previous one I used it was the other way round,

    Do you not use a VPN? Using public WiFi without a VPN is a bit like having a SeanT Thailand experience without protection...
    I don't even know what a VPN is. I'm a bit like Sherlock Holmes — I'm completely ignorant of some aspects of computing while knowing a lot about others.
  • isam said:

    What the Dickens?


    Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.

    Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
    She doesn't exactly follow in the mould of former Home Secretary Theresa May as regards wearing classy footwear does she?
    No, not with those shoes, but fancy footwear did not grant Mrs May the ability to do fancy footwork (politically speaking).

    Shoes make the outfit, not the person.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    RobD said:

    The final plot. It has been a pleasure :D

    https://imgur.com/AUydj5k

    Ta muchly. :smile:
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    Not just London. Don't think my low turnout is going to be correct.

    If was a tory I'd be a bit edgy right now.

    https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20

    Ahh yes, that well known Lab/Con marginal Manchester Central.
    Lots of non sequitors on here today ..
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662

    The world is turned upside down. I was talking to a colleague in his late fifties who has been a lifelong Labour voter, but this morning he voted Conservative (not even LibDem!) because he thinks the Labour Party has become such a sewer. Meanwhile I'm a lifelong Conservative voter who voted LibDem.

    It's a funny old world to be sure

    Thats exactly what i did.. changed my mind at the last minute... makes no difference but dontt like the brexiteers
  • Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.

    The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
    Id say the opposite, people like to belong and they like to win. So if their group are out there voting it both puts pressure on them to vote from belonging and makes them feel they have an increased chance of winning.

    There will be some thinking like you and others like me so maybe it all just nets off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    I hope there is really good turnout, as I always hope that, but i worry a lot of people will be a bit disappointed after initial excitement.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Tories look away now ... you'd better hope your Labour Leavers turnout like this

    https://twitter.com/thejoemellor/status/1205046837117358080?s=20

    I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.

    The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
    Id say the opposite, people like to belong and they like to win. So if their group are out there voting it both puts pressure on them to vote from belonging and makes them feel they have an increased chance of winning.

    There will be some thinking like you and others like me so maybe it all just nets off.
    I’d say if you weren’t that engaged in voting you wouldn’t want to queue for 30 minutes
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019

    So with the Mori poll now in and the average Tory lead remaining at or around the 10% mark, it's going to take a great deal more than a few additional tens of thousands of over-excited young socialists across the land to deprive Boris of his majority. In exactly 11 hours time they are going to be very, very disappointed.

    You may be under a misapprehension as to the meaning of the word "deprive". And YouGov's weightings for age have been unrealistic.

    According to Commons briefing paper 7979, women aged 18-24 broke 73%-18% for Lab and Con in 2017. I can't see many women who were 16-17 at that time voting Con today at all.
This discussion has been closed.