When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?
Not allowed to do it iirc
I love election telling folklore. Of course you can ask. And they can refuse. Tellers ask for the polling number on the top. It’s the entire purpose of telling.
The issue is seeking to influence a voter within the precinct of a polling station. Most presiding officers, if pushed, would take the view that trying to speak to them at all on the way in is behaviour best avoided.
It depends where they stand. If they ask you as you go in the door, I think they are breaking the law. If they ask you on the pavement away from the building that is OK.
I am sure there is a legislated minimum distance. 100 feet or some such...
Interesting another poll where Tory number unchanged again. The only one of the polls that saw it go down was the one taken exactly at the height of the photo-gate.
The difference in basically all the polls is really the Labour number, it is 32-33% or is it 35-36%.
I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.
Just looked at the Dulwich & West Norwood MRP (Brixton) surprised they have Greens on 21% and Labour on 58%. Unless someone knows local facts that is very strange. They're assuming about 8,000 voters will move from Lab to Green!
None of the last polls show them losing ground . They’ve either remained static or gained a few points .
For further straw clutching , apparently there’s more danger of the Tories underperforming than over because their vote is made up of a large amount of BP and UKIP voters .
That group were overestimated in both the 2017 GE and 2019 Euro elections , and their voters didn’t come out as they suggested they would in the polling .
That is a logical piece of straw clutching, even if it might be nonsense. Our tellers are reporting a lot of people telling our tellers they have voted LD. However that is a self selecting sample and might be our entire vote!
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%).
Lets suppose the "margin of error event" happens and both the tories are down 3 and Labour are up 3 points. That makes a GB-con lead of 3 or four %points, which is easily in hung parliament teritory.
But if we have 12 pollsters, assuming their results are unbiased, the margin of error of the average would go down below 1 point, wouldn't it?
But still I take your earlier point that there is significant uncertainty from other sources.
Only if they are using exactly the same modelling, sampling and weighting.
If you have two polls, one using "correct" methodology and one "incorrect", there is no reason why the actual position should fall in between the two. The "correct" one has random error and the "incorrect" one has random error plus systemic error.
Averaging a load of polls done in different ways is a common misunderstanding. Unless you take the view that the various methodologies themselves are a sort of induced randomness, I guess.
I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.
Vot LibDem Mike. Tactical voting is wrong.
(Then again I`m on Labour in Bedford, so perhaps abandon my principles on this occasion.)
Boris 14% lead (43-29) on most capable PM in Ipsos Mori.
Is that all.
Both of Mrs BJs Carers were 2 of the WASPi women I did a calculation for a while ago.
Both normally Tory.
Both already voted Lab by the time they arrived
£28k and £10k.
One reckons she has persuaded lots of her mates too.
Perhaps Yoof and WASPI could mitigate Lab. losses.
The youth makes sense, they see hope for them, but the WASPI policy was bar none the worst and most cynical policy of the election, it's a shame if that worked.
A Labour victory "would be a blessing for the economy compared to Hard Brexit", according to Der Spiegel, apparently today.
And according to various City banks. Corbyn better than no-deal Brexit, say investment banks as anti-capitalist Labour wins unlikely new City fans
Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.
Not only might the Tories be swept out of most of London, it has some - maybe limited potential - to tell us about some lab/con marginals outside London, too.
However, I'm still waiting to hear something more useful from what were the BXP target seats.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%).
Lets suppose the "margin of error event" happens and both the tories are down 3 and Labour are up 3 points. That makes a GB-con lead of 3 or four %points, which is easily in hung parliament teritory.
But if we have 12 pollsters, assuming their results are unbiased, the margin of error of the average would go down below 1 point, wouldn't it?
But still I take your earlier point that there is significant uncertainty from other sources.
Only if they are using exactly the same modelling, sampling and weighting.
If you have two polls, one using "correct" methodology and one "incorrect", there is no reason why the actual position should fall in between the two. The "correct" one has random error and the "incorrect" one has random error plus systemic error.
Averaging a load of polls done in different ways is a common misunderstanding. Unless you take the view that the various methodologies themselves are a sort of induced randomness, I guess.
I said "assuming their results are unbiased."
Obviously the possibility of bias is one of the sources of uncertainty.
Its all very exciting but when people genuinely think turnout is amazing and good for their side I wonder how they'll react if it turns out turnout is normal and it's a tory landslide.
It is quite incredible that all the final polling (except one older poll) was good for the Tories and yet the Betfair market has drifted.
This is probably a massive betting opportunity yet in a way I am glad not to have time to think about it. It is certainly a trading opportunity as prices move in and out.
That's my Very Efficient Tory Vote scenario. Lose votes where they can afford it in the south - but lose few if any seats. Zero swing in the south, 8% up north/Wales.
My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
Just looked at the Dulwich & West Norwood MRP (Brixton) surprised they have Greens on 21% and Labour on 58%. Unless someone knows local facts that is very strange. They're assuming about 8,000 voters will move from Lab to Green!
Isn't one of the most prominent Green leaders standing there, Jonathan Bartley?
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
Live opposite a Polling station. It's wet & windy but have never seen so many people at this time, the road is jammed & the police have come to sort it out.
That's my Very Efficient Tory Vote scenario. Lose votes where they can afford it in the south - but lose few if any seats. Zero swing in the south, 8% up north/Wales.
My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
Yeah, I strongly suspect that the VETV is going to unfold, lots of big majorities will be slashed.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I think you'll find there is no criterion of mental capacity to vote. I looked into this when my father had dementia.
Interesting another poll where Tory number unchanged again. The only one of the polls that saw it go down was the one taken exactly at the height of the photo-gate.
The difference in basically all the polls is really the Labour number, it is 32-33% or is it 35-36%.
Corbyn's ratings this time are in the doldrums. Therefore Labour share should be on the lower end.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
From the Independent:
To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”
When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?
Not allowed to do it iirc
I love election telling folklore. Of course you can ask. And they can refuse. Tellers ask for the polling number on the top. It’s the entire purpose of telling.
The issue is seeking to influence a voter within the precinct of a polling station. Most presiding officers, if pushed, would take the view that trying to speak to them at all on the way in is behaviour best avoided.
It depends where they stand. If they ask you as you go in the door, I think they are breaking the law. If they ask you on the pavement away from the building that is OK.
I am sure there is a legislated minimum distance. 100 feet or some such...
As I said, it's the precinct of the polling station.
Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.
Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
Maybe she isn't terribly well.
There were wonderings about that before. Diabetes wasn't it?
As much as we can argue her politics lets hope she's ok and healthy.
The odd shoes suggest she might have a swollen foot, one possible symptom of her diabetes. Or maybe she has gout. But that would probably need a stick.
Or she could just be turning into Mad Multiple-Cat Woman.
None of the last polls show them losing ground . They’ve either remained static or gained a few points .
For further straw clutching , apparently there’s more danger of the Tories underperforming than over because their vote is made up of a large amount of BP and UKIP voters .
That group were overestimated in both the 2017 GE and 2019 Euro elections , and their voters didn’t come out as they suggested they would in the polling .
That is a logical piece of straw clutching, even if it might be nonsense. Our tellers are reporting a lot of people telling our tellers they have voted LD. However that is a self selecting sample and might be our entire vote!
Thanks ! The thing about the Tories underperforming isn’t me in desperation straw clutch mode but a professor of politics at Southampton University . Will Jennings is his name and he’s on twitter .
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
From the Independent:
To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”
Oops - not only are they on the wrong feet, but they appear to be two different types of shoe.
Maybe she was just rushed into a photo-op and just jammed her feet into whatever was handy?
Maybe she isn't terribly well.
Why is she being allowed to put herself up to represent people if she is literally too unwell to put her shoes on the correct feet?
She’s diabetic and diabetes impacts your feet a lot.
Swelling of the feet is a common thing, so some diabetics wear different shoes depending on which foot swells up.
I think she is Type II - and the swelling would likely be a consequence of a different complication or a side effect of a peripheral injury which for diabetics are more common / serious, and harder to detect.
Ask me about it - currently having a dressing changed on a burn every 48 hours from overhot wok-fat. As a D1 I get to have it done at the surgery.
However, swelling is better than Long John Silver style peg-legs, which can be an eventual consequence, particularly observable near hospitals with amputation specialists. Royal London is one, iirc :-) .
The world is turned upside down. I was talking to a colleague in his late fifties who has been a lifelong Labour voter, but this morning he voted Conservative (not even LibDem!) because he thinks the Labour Party has become such a sewer. Meanwhile I'm a lifelong Conservative voter who voted LibDem.
I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.
The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
I still haven't decided which way to vote here in Bedford - the leading bellwether constituency. I've had the postal pack for nearly three weeks and am still pondering.
Mike I know you have held back from a tactical vote for Labour for very good reasons. But Bedford is on a knife edge according to the YG MRP. If you can bear to hold your nose and vote Labour to deny Johnson the majority he will use to deliver a ruinous Brexit I would beg you to do so. But if you can't I would understand. Whatever you do, I am sure you will make what you consider the best call. Voting is always an amazing feeling. Good luck!
In Yvette Cooper's constituency, I've just had a car drive up and down my road decked out in BXP regalia, playing a recorded message urging people to vote BXP. Make of that what you will.
I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.
I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP and Yorkshire Party.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
I recall seeing a sponsored advert encouraging those responsible for caring for those with learning difficulties to get them registered and get them to vote (without steering them in any direction!!!)
High turnout across the country surely helps the Conservatives? Getting traditional non-voters to vote helped flip the EU referendum.
Besides 'massive queues to vote' is a story that happens every single election, and I'm not sure that the Tories were ever really in the race for Manchester central or Brixton.
Another question I have been musing on in the election day hiatus.
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
I thought every adult non-prisoner is competent to vote unless they have specifically been deemed not competent to vote. Even if you have Alzheimers, autism or any other condition.
I recall seeing a sponsored advert encouraging those responsible for caring for those with learning difficulties to get them registered and get them to vote (without steering them in any direction!!!)
Recently I have been dealing with Powers of Attorney. I would think if someone has capacity not to have one of those, then they are competent to vote.
I'm using a public WIFI system which is allowing PB but blocking Betfair. With the previous one I used it was the other way round,
Do you not use a VPN? Using public WiFi without a VPN is a bit like having a SeanT Thailand experience without protection...
I don't even know what a VPN is. I'm a bit like Sherlock Holmes — I'm completely ignorant of some aspects of computing while knowing a lot about others.
The world is turned upside down. I was talking to a colleague in his late fifties who has been a lifelong Labour voter, but this morning he voted Conservative (not even LibDem!) because he thinks the Labour Party has become such a sewer. Meanwhile I'm a lifelong Conservative voter who voted LibDem.
It's a funny old world to be sure
Thats exactly what i did.. changed my mind at the last minute... makes no difference but dontt like the brexiteers
I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.
The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
Id say the opposite, people like to belong and they like to win. So if their group are out there voting it both puts pressure on them to vote from belonging and makes them feel they have an increased chance of winning.
There will be some thinking like you and others like me so maybe it all just nets off.
I know people post these photos of queues outside polling stations in strong labour areas, but I cannot Understand why. Surely this will put off potential voters in that area, and looks like Labour racking up votes where they don’t need them - they weren’t even close at 3% behind last time.
The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
Id say the opposite, people like to belong and they like to win. So if their group are out there voting it both puts pressure on them to vote from belonging and makes them feel they have an increased chance of winning.
There will be some thinking like you and others like me so maybe it all just nets off.
I’d say if you weren’t that engaged in voting you wouldn’t want to queue for 30 minutes
So with the Mori poll now in and the average Tory lead remaining at or around the 10% mark, it's going to take a great deal more than a few additional tens of thousands of over-excited young socialists across the land to deprive Boris of his majority. In exactly 11 hours time they are going to be very, very disappointed.
You may be under a misapprehension as to the meaning of the word "deprive". And YouGov's weightings for age have been unrealistic.
According to Commons briefing paper 7979, women aged 18-24 broke 73%-18% for Lab and Con in 2017. I can't see many women who were 16-17 at that time voting Con today at all.
Comments
I am sure there is a legislated minimum distance. 100 feet or some such...
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1205062739342827520
The difference in basically all the polls is really the Labour number, it is 32-33% or is it 35-36%.
As much as we can argue her politics lets hope she's ok and healthy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-destroy-britain-conservative-revolutionary-sect
Loving the voting in London in the rain
Tory lead circa 5% = Hefty Tory Majority
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-final-election-poll-predicts-conservative-victory
If you have two polls, one using "correct" methodology and one "incorrect", there is no reason why the actual position should fall in between the two. The "correct" one has random error and the "incorrect" one has random error plus systemic error.
Averaging a load of polls done in different ways is a common misunderstanding. Unless you take the view that the various methodologies themselves are a sort of induced randomness, I guess.
(Then again I`m on Labour in Bedford, so perhaps abandon my principles on this occasion.)
Not only might the Tories be swept out of most of London, it has some - maybe limited potential - to tell us about some lab/con marginals outside London, too.
However, I'm still waiting to hear something more useful from what were the BXP target seats.
Obviously the possibility of bias is one of the sources of uncertainty.
Swelling of the feet is a common thing, so some diabetics wear different shoes depending on which foot swells up.
My more expected Ultra-Efficient Tory Vote scenario is a 9% lead as per the polling. Zero % swing down south, 12% up north/Wales. If so, then the Tories will have to split to form an opposition.....
What are the criteria for deciding if someone is fit to vote and who makes that decision?
My business partner has two very severely autistic adult children who he cares for. They are both in their mid twenties now. What is the process for deciding whether they are competent to vote?
https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1205077505163616257
NEW THREAD
To clarify this last disqualification: under the 1918 Representation of the People Act, you cannot register as an elector if you are “an idiot; a lunatic… [or] an imbecile who is not compos mentis” – but you may register and vote during a “lucid interval”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-who-can-vote-whos-excluded-and-does-the-queen-get-to-have-her-say-10183009.html
Or she could just be turning into Mad Multiple-Cat Woman.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1205077844642189312?s=20
Ask me about it - currently having a dressing changed on a burn every 48 hours from overhot wok-fat. As a D1 I get to have it done at the surgery.
However, swelling is better than Long John Silver style peg-legs, which can be an eventual consequence, particularly observable near hospitals with amputation specialists. Royal London is one, iirc :-) .
This is cruel by Guido, and goes too far.
It's a funny old world to be sure
The only useful photo would be busy polling station in Labour part of the seat whilst simultaneously quiet at the Tory area polling station
I won't be voting until 5ish - I'll try and ascertain whether turnout is steady or has edged up to brisk.
I think Cooper will hold on. Mind you, we've had several leaflets from her over the last fortnight, one each for Tory, BXP and Yorkshire Party.
If was a tory I'd be a bit edgy right now.
https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1205058480845049858?s=20
Besides 'massive queues to vote' is a story that happens every single election, and I'm not sure that the Tories were ever really in the race for Manchester central or Brixton.
Shoes make the outfit, not the person.
There will be some thinking like you and others like me so maybe it all just nets off.
According to Commons briefing paper 7979, women aged 18-24 broke 73%-18% for Lab and Con in 2017. I can't see many women who were 16-17 at that time voting Con today at all.