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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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  • Andy_JS said:

    There's epic queues in Battersea and quite a few other places, including in Dore.

    For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.

    Labour hold in Hallam? 😊
    That was my call a few weeks ago.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Bojo will most likely will end up like this.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3hRwnXmdRCo
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With that bonanza, I have succumbed and gone for a Tory majority at 1.4.

    Supposing one believes the MRP with 95% confidence limits of 311-367, if that comes from an approximately normal distribution I reckon it implies an 84% probability of a majority, compared with the probability of 71% implied by 1.4.
  • Andy_JS said:

    What time is Ipsos Mori due?

    Good question, I tried to find out earlier without success.
    Apparently before midday i've been told
  • What time is Ipsos Mori due?

    Before midday.
    Lovely, thank you
  • So the Scandi model still works best. When will a political party put that to us in the UK? Education, Investment, Economy and Inequality please.

    And despite what people think our temperate weather is better for us than 40+ degree Mediterranean summers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited December 2019
    Ipsos Mori is appearing in the Evening Standard and I think it's usually published at about 3pm.
  • Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    I remember doing a 4 hour stint collecting numbers at a Coventry polling station in the middle of the day, facing exactly the same direction out in a blazing sun and coming back totally sunburnt on just one side of my face.

    I think it was a glorious result too. But please indulge me, unless the polls are wrong it looks like I will have suffered Conservative governments for all but 14 of the 46 years of my adult life to 2024.
  • Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)

    And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
    He is probably thinking that your pea-brain forgot to switch on the spell checker! lol
    Thanks @murali_s for the compliment. People normally call me an idiot or imbecile.

    From Wikipedia so not sure if this is true:
    Moron" was coined in 1910 by psychologist Henry H. Goddard[4] from the Ancient Greek word μωρός (moros), which meant "dull"[5] and used to describe a person with a mental age in adulthood of between 7 and 10 on the Binet scale.[6] It was once applied to people with an IQ of 51–70, being superior in one degree to "imbecile" (IQ of 26–50) and superior in two degrees to "idiot" (IQ of 0–25).
  • Andy_JS said:

    I was surprised to read a few weeks ago that we have the second-lowest suicide rate in Europe, after the Maltese if I remember correctly.
    And while there was an odd suicide up tick last year we have the lowest suicide rates since the early eighties when records began.

    The old chestnut that a man under 45 is more likely to be killed by suicide than anything else is more to do with how unlikely it is for under 45 year old males to die!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Currency markets unmoved this morning. I find that reassuring - people with money aren't panicking. Yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Mike's missed the most important thing from this guide, I'm editing PB tonight.

    Mike's out on the doorstep chasing the handful of extra votes the LibDems need to get across the line in ultra-marginal Hornchurch?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Cookie said:

    Currency markets unmoved this morning. I find that reassuring - people with money aren't panicking. Yet.

    Well, people with money did go in the wrong direction with Brexit, didn't they?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Just voted for Labour in Newcastle North. I’m a mythical Lib Dem - Labour switcher from 2017. Looked busier than usual.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)

    And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
    He is probably thinking that your pea-brain forgot to switch on the spell checker! lol
    Thanks @murali_s for the compliment. People normally call me an idiot or imbecile.

    From Wikipedia so not sure if this is true:
    Moron" was coined in 1910 by psychologist Henry H. Goddard[4] from the Ancient Greek word μωρός (moros), which meant "dull"[5] and used to describe a person with a mental age in adulthood of between 7 and 10 on the Binet scale.[6] It was once applied to people with an IQ of 51–70, being superior in one degree to "imbecile" (IQ of 26–50) and superior in two degrees to "idiot" (IQ of 0–25).
    Banter my friend, banter!

    Brexit is still a mad course of action though, utterly mad!
  • I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

  • Just voted. No queue.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    An epic

    Andy_JS said:

    There's epic queues in Battersea and quite a few other places, including in Dore.

    For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.

    Labour hold in Hallam? 😊
    That was my call a few weeks ago.
    An epic queue in Dore surely doesn't imply a Labour hold? Dore must be - on the basis of age profile alone - the least Labour part of Hallam.
  • Chris said:

    Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With that bonanza, I have succumbed and gone for a Tory majority at 1.4.

    Supposing one believes the MRP with 95% confidence limits of 311-367, if that comes from an approximately normal distribution I reckon it implies an 84% probability of a majority, compared with the probability of 71% implied by 1.4.
    The betting market should have a bigger variance than the model as 1) the model might be wrong 2) not sure on this one but think the model confidence limits are for the day of the data, and dont take account of any late movements between polling and today.

    Think 1.4 reasonable value though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)

    And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
    He is probably thinking that your pea-brain forgot to switch on the spell checker! lol
    Thanks @murali_s for the compliment. People normally call me an idiot or imbecile.

    From Wikipedia so not sure if this is true:
    Moron" was coined in 1910 by psychologist Henry H. Goddard[4] from the Ancient Greek word μωρός (moros), which meant "dull"[5] and used to describe a person with a mental age in adulthood of between 7 and 10 on the Binet scale.[6] It was once applied to people with an IQ of 51–70, being superior in one degree to "imbecile" (IQ of 26–50) and superior in two degrees to "idiot" (IQ of 0–25).
    Morons are brighter than imbeciles and imbeciles are brighter than idiots? Who knew? Modern casual usage seems to me to be the other way around.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    That was the opinion of the Presiding Officer where we voted. No queue, though
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Stocky said:


    It was 1.36 when I checked it at 7:00 this morning - I logged it in my diary. The move to 1.43 is curious.

    With over £13.7m matched on that particular market there will be a lot of money looking to be laid/backed off. I wouldn't pay to much heed unless there is a sustained move with a wall of money. At the moment all I see is relatively small amounts moving the market around.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Cookie said:

    Currency markets unmoved this morning. I find that reassuring - people with money aren't panicking. Yet.

    Sean's hungover again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

    Raab falling to the LibDems and IDS to Labour offer the prospect of consolation prizes at least for tonight's likely losers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    I remember doing a 4 hour stint collecting numbers at a Coventry polling station in the middle of the day, facing exactly the same direction out in a blazing sun and coming back totally sunburnt on just one side of my face.

    I think it was a glorious result too. But please indulge me, unless the polls are wrong it looks like I will have suffered Conservative governments for all but 14 of the 46 years of my adult life to 2024.
    You should worry! I've voted Labour or Lb/LD at every election Ince 1959 and only once have I voted for a winning candidate.
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited December 2019
    I went for spoiling my ballot in the end. If I was in a marginal I would have voted (tactically for whoever could beat Labour), but as nobody can do that here I went with my main view which is none of the above at the moment.

    First time since the early 90's that I have not voted for someone at a general or local election.

    I couldn't think of anything funny, so just did a line through the paper.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    They’re all voting to get Brexit ‘done’.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    edited December 2019

    There's epic queues in Battersea and quite a few other places, including in Dore.

    For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.

    Age profiles of these "epic queues"? Da Yoof or the Triple-lockers?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019

    Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
  • I love these kind of things. Confected anger and unhappiness are a staple of left politics in the UK. Yet when ever those kind of things are measured people seem no less happy than years ago. Sometimes it seems people want others to be unhappy as it validates their wold view.
    It is a failure of our politicians that we do not acknowledge our fortune, prosperity and happiness. Even "optimistic" Boris paints a picture of a broken country needing Brexit to make us happy.

    We are amongst the happiest, longest living, safest people to ever have lived. There is not only a moral responsibility for us to be aware of and recognise that status, it is almost certainly better for our mental health, collective happiness and society if we start from that point. We should work out how to make things even better rather than starting from broken Britain looking for quick fixes and or scapegoats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827

    What are age profiles of these "epic queues

    There's epic queues in Battersea and quite a few other places, including in Dore.

    For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.

    Age profiles of these "epic queues"? Da Yoof or the Triple-lockers?
    Working age, I suspect!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    edited December 2019
    Is there only one polling station in Battersea like?
  • IanB2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Currency markets unmoved this morning. I find that reassuring - people with money aren't panicking. Yet.

    Sean's hungover again.
    I thought he had off-shored everything a few days ago?
  • JameiJamei Posts: 58
    Long queues this morning simply because people know it will be raining heavily this evening. I wouldn't predict a high turnout on this basis alone.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How do they work postal votes into the exit poll?
  • alex_ said:

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    In what way was the Second World War "self inflicted"?
    We started it.
    They invaded Poland.
    We declared war on a nation we were at peace with.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfl6Lu3xQW0
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:
    Would be quite clever if Momentum have organised that through a flashmob, all agree to turn up at the same time and get it trending to show young voters engaged, it would encourage undecided lefties to vote. Probably far more effective than normal election day get out of the vote as can go viral.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    RobD said:
    It could be as prosaic as they’ve seen the weather forecast for later and have decided to vote in the dry.
  • IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    murali_s said:

    Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.

    You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)

    And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
    He is probably thinking that your pea-brain forgot to switch on the spell checker! lol
    Thanks @murali_s for the compliment. People normally call me an idiot or imbecile.

    From Wikipedia so not sure if this is true:
    Moron" was coined in 1910 by psychologist Henry H. Goddard[4] from the Ancient Greek word μωρός (moros), which meant "dull"[5] and used to describe a person with a mental age in adulthood of between 7 and 10 on the Binet scale.[6] It was once applied to people with an IQ of 51–70, being superior in one degree to "imbecile" (IQ of 26–50) and superior in two degrees to "idiot" (IQ of 0–25).
    Morons are brighter than imbeciles and imbeciles are brighter than idiots? Who knew? Modern casual usage seems to me to be the other way around.
    I wonder if Huxley was using it in the Greek or modern scientific sense in Brave New World? Given the context - Epsilon Semi-Moron - I guess the Greek. Would be interesting to know if he was aware of the Binet Scale , writing only a couple of decades after it was adopted.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2019
    Jamei said:

    Long queues this morning simply because people know it will be raining heavily this evening. I wouldn't predict a high turnout on this basis alone.

    Obviously depends where you leave but the main frontal boundary should have cleared the east coast by 6pm today. So the wettest part of the day is likely to be "middle" chunk of the day.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
  • I love these kind of things. Confected anger and unhappiness are a staple of left politics in the UK. Yet when ever those kind of things are measured people seem no less happy than years ago. Sometimes it seems people want others to be unhappy as it validates their wold view.
    Similarly with racism - 'nasty racist xenophobic Little Britain' - is also one of the least racist countries on the planet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827

    RobD said:
    Would be quite clever if Momentum have organised that through a flashmob, all agree to turn up at the same time and get it trending to show young voters engaged, it would encourage undecided lefties to vote. Probably far more effective than normal election day get out of the vote as can go viral.
    Don't we have the same posts every time? There are always queues before people head to work.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    There's epic queues in Battersea and quite a few other places, including in Dore.

    For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.

    Age profiles of these "epic queues"? Da Yoof or the Triple-lockers?
    As someone else mentioned we probably should be wary of reading too much into early morning big queues, likely that no-one wants to vote in a December evening compared to a may evening so people are making an effort to go before work instead of after. I guess we will see if the queues hold up into the evening.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Just going out to vote after a long philosophical argument with myself, but I've been stymied. There's no attractive woman with big tits to vote for, so I'll have to take a national approach.

    That means it's between a lying buffoon and a Marxist. For the first time in my life. I'm voting Tory at a General Election. My first General Election vote was for Harold Wilson, but times have changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    nichomar said:

    How do they work postal votes into the exit poll?

    They don't. Its an admitted weakness - but they argue it has made relatively little difference in previous years.

    Last time's exit poll understated the Tories a little; maybe that's the explanation? Although its a myth that the PVs lean heavily Tory.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    Indeed it was. As you say, glorious morning and most people I worked with (in the NHS) had voted Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Fantastic. And who on their right mind will watch this unfold anywhere else but PB?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With that bonanza, I have succumbed and gone for a Tory majority at 1.4.

    Supposing one believes the MRP with 95% confidence limits of 311-367, if that comes from an approximately normal distribution I reckon it implies an 84% probability of a majority, compared with the probability of 71% implied by 1.4.
    The betting market should have a bigger variance than the model as 1) the model might be wrong 2) not sure on this one but think the model confidence limits are for the day of the data, and dont take account of any late movements between polling and today.

    Think 1.4 reasonable value though.
    Yes, I agree the MRP can't be taken at face value, so the uncertainty is greater than 16%. On the other hand, this time the conventional polls are telling much the same story. And my heart is also telling me the same as my head. :-(
  • IanB2 said:

    I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

    Raab falling to the LibDems and IDS to Labour offer the prospect of consolation prizes at least for tonight's likely losers.
    I would take that and a majority between 15&30 and call it a day. If I could have JRM out as well happy to double the Tory majority!
  • Down here in Richmond Park voting was quiet at a quarter past eight. Arguably more of a marginal of Battersea (which is not so far away) so the difference is rather stark...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited December 2019
    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and (still) happy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

    Raab falling to the LibDems and IDS to Labour offer the prospect of consolation prizes at least for tonight's likely losers.
    I would take that and a majority between 15&30 and call it a day. If I could have JRM out as well happy to double the Tory majority!
    Indeed. If the Tories would offer up Baker and Francois as well, they can have any majority they like.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    IanB2 said:

    I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

    Raab falling to the LibDems and IDS to Labour offer the prospect of consolation prizes at least for tonight's likely losers.
    Not going to happen. Either of them. And I would love to see the back of IDS.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    I was being ironic.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair has finally paid out on the election date?

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With that bonanza, I have succumbed and gone for a Tory majority at 1.4.

    Supposing one believes the MRP with 95% confidence limits of 311-367, if that comes from an approximately normal distribution I reckon it implies an 84% probability of a majority, compared with the probability of 71% implied by 1.4.
    The betting market should have a bigger variance than the model as 1) the model might be wrong 2) not sure on this one but think the model confidence limits are for the day of the data, and dont take account of any late movements between polling and today.

    Think 1.4 reasonable value though.
    Yes, I agree the MRP can't be taken at face value, so the uncertainty is greater than 16%. On the other hand, this time the conventional polls are telling much the same story. And my heart is also telling me the same as my head. :-(
    Conventional polls are more in favour of the overall majority than the MRP. Against is that I think its fair to say this will be hardest election to actually poll accurately in many decades.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
  • Down here in Richmond Park voting was quiet at a quarter past eight. Arguably more of a marginal of Battersea (which is not so far away) so the difference is rather stark...

    Very key for the LD's.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    I went for spoiling my ballot in the end. If I was in a marginal I would have voted (tactically for whoever could beat Labour), but as nobody can do that here I went with my main view which is none of the above at the moment.

    First time since the early 90's that I have not voted for someone at a general or local election.

    I couldn't think of anything funny, so just did a line through the paper.

    Very sorry to hear that. As we are all aware on here voting is a special event and imbued with tremendous meaning. It is awful that someone should find no other option than to spoil their ballot.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    I voted last week. No queue at the postbox.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706


    Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.

    Just saying.
    That is astonishingly close to my prediction yesterday:

    Tory 352
    Labour 217
    SNP 41
    Lib Dem 16
    Green 1
    PC 4
    Irish 18
    Speaker 1

    I'm doomed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2019

    I love these kind of things. Confected anger and unhappiness are a staple of left politics in the UK. Yet when ever those kind of things are measured people seem no less happy than years ago. Sometimes it seems people want others to be unhappy as it validates their wold view.
    Similarly with racism - 'nasty racist xenophobic Little Britain' - is also one of the least racist countries on the planet.
    Maybe but trends are also important. Britain is trending more racist after a long period of trending the other way (mirrors my own personal experience). Brexit has certainly emboldened the racists / xenophobes to come out from under the stone.
  • Just voted. No queue.

    Area ? General sense and profile of the region is good enough, if people aren't wanting to be too specific.
    Wycombe.
    Thanks - I see that's Steve Baker's seat.
    Yes, and I’m not happy about having to vote for him.
  • Bishop Auckland nailed on Con gain. Heard from both sides.

    Tories really would be facing a shocker if they don't win Bishop. Darlington also likely to go if they get even a minimal majority.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I voted by post. No Lib Dem, a Green who would back Corbyn, One of Corbyn's whips is Labour MP, unknown Councillor from Somerset is the forlorn hope for the Tories, and a.n.other stood for Brexit Party.

    Woke on woke battle for first place - in the dreams of the Greens.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Bishop Auckland nailed on Con gain. Heard from both sides.

    Tories really would be facing a shocker if they don't win Bishop. Darlington also likely to go if they get even a minimal majority.
    Yeah all the Lab activists I know are in Darlo today.
  • So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

  • Former parliamentry candidate and occasional TV personality David Bellamy has popped his clogs :disappointed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50752089
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect Labour are going to do yugely well in London. They’ll only have to weigh the vote in most places and the majorities will be Liverpool-sized. Suspect that might see Putney and Chingford fall.

    Raab falling to the LibDems and IDS to Labour offer the prospect of consolation prizes at least for tonight's likely losers.
    I would take that and a majority between 15&30 and call it a day. If I could have JRM out as well happy to double the Tory majority!
    If JRM loses, it alone would justify this miserable election.

    (I also will be very pleased if Grieve, IDS & Antoniazzi lose, just to spray my venom even-handedly).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Chris me old mucker, he is an anti-semitic fucker. You can but this but that all you like but he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened.

    If it looks like a duck, etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
  • eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    Indeed it was. As you say, glorious morning and most people I worked with (in the NHS) had voted Labour.
    Oh God I remember that day, in my last year at college. The sun was shining, everyone was smiling, politically it was the happiest day of my life.
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited December 2019
    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark in the evening. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Just voted. No queue.

    I voted last week. No queue at the postbox.
    Maybe you confused the letterbox with something else - did it try to bite you? :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    Bishop Auckland nailed on Con gain. Heard from both sides.

    Tories really would be facing a shocker if they don't win Bishop. Darlington also likely to go if they get even a minimal majority.
    Yeah all the Lab activists I know are in Darlo today.
    Wasted effort I'd say. Being out in this and then losing makes for the shittiest of shit days.

    Voting "very brisk" in Brixham. Not good news for Dr. Sarah Wollaston (unless our canvass returns are a load of bollocks).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Bishop Auckland nailed on Con gain. Heard from both sides.

    Tories really would be facing a shocker if they don't win Bishop. Darlington also likely to go if they get even a minimal majority.
    Yeah all the Lab activists I know are in Darlo today.
    Wasted effort I'd say. Being out in this and then losing makes for the shittiest of shit days.

    Voting "very brisk" in Brixham. Not good news for Dr. Sarah Wollaston (unless our canvass returns are a load of bollocks).
    If that was the case maybe they’d be in Sedgefield or Sunderland Central...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    Majority out to 1.46, unless i'm reading this wrong.
  • Final prediction:
    Con 336; Lab 232; LD 15; BXP 0; GRN 1; SNP 45; PC 2.
  • Former parliamentry candidate and occasional TV personality David Bellamy has popped his clogs :disappointed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50752089

    Again?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    murali_s said:

    I love these kind of things. Confected anger and unhappiness are a staple of left politics in the UK. Yet when ever those kind of things are measured people seem no less happy than years ago. Sometimes it seems people want others to be unhappy as it validates their wold view.
    Similarly with racism - 'nasty racist xenophobic Little Britain' - is also one of the least racist countries on the planet.
    Maybe but trends are also important. Britain is trending more racist after a long period of trending the other way (mirrors my own personal experience). Brexit has certainly emboldened the racists / xenophobes to come out from under the stone.
    Not true - you should try other European countries - in many the racism is worse in your face.
  • Terrible thread article - the sun rises in the west, not the south
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Oh, it's just *some* jews, is it? Phew!

    What I find a huge waste of time, is bothering to differentiate between mitigators and deniers of antisemitism, and antisemites. But thanks for the contribution.
    It does bear pointing out that the recently unearthed antisemitic character that Boris Johnson seems to have penned in his novel seems a bit more specific than that.

    Having said that, and without wanting to stifle, it would be good if we could have a bit less of a campaign day here today.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Fairly busy at polling station in Finchley & Golders Green just now. Lib Dems were leaflet dropping just after 6am this morning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827

    Terrible thread article - the sun rises in the west, not the south

    Erm. :D
  • Pulpstar said:

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
    Barnsley East. Irrelevant for the overall result, but the motivation to vote early that I mention is probably relevant everywhere.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Our polling station is never busy, but this morning there was a very steady flow (it's just over the road from me, so I can see it from an upstairs window).

    Lots of cars parked at a station that always has a high proportion of people walking to it. My guess is that a lot of people who usually vote in the evening are doing it on the way to work this time.

    I agree with the view that lots of people are likely to vote early today. Regardless of the weather, it will be dark anyway. Quite a lot of people usually walk to the polling station in the evening usually, but that has probably never been their plan for a December election. Best just get it out of the way in the morning when it is light.

    What's your constituency
    or rough area.
  • Terrible thread article - the sun rises in the west, not the south

    Did you mean to say East? Anyway at this time of year it’s more like southeast.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    RobD said:

    Majority out to 1.46, unless i'm reading this wrong.

    Just ticked out
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    Touched 1.52 a second ago.
  • Terrible thread article - the sun rises in the west, not the south

    Did you mean to say East? Anyway at this time of year it’s more like southeast.
    Certainly more South than West. :)
  • Former parliamentry candidate and occasional TV personality David Bellamy has popped his clogs :disappointed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50752089

    Again?
    Die early, die often.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Cons at 340+ seats is evens on Betfair. For them to miss that it would need a decent polling error. That could happen, but it's not a 50% chance. Excellent value.
This discussion has been closed.