I don't think the Tories deserve a landslide but they might get one anyway. About a 30% chance IMO.
I agree but I think Corbyn deserves to lose by one. Plus the added bonus that a strong government would make negotiating an FTA with Europe to continue smooth trading relations easier.
I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.
Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.
I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
I am still guessing at a possible hung parliament or a very small (<10) Tory majority. I have guessed it right (against the polls and received opinion) for both the last two, so it may be time for my guess to be way out!
Interesting to consider what projections would be had Conservatives instigated a “normal” boundary review - 650 seats et al. We’re still using 2005 boundaries. It’ll get to a point where people start claiming that any boundary review, even the fairest, least politically influenced, is a gerrymander.
Also worth remembering that boundary reviews can play havoc with tactical voting.
Boundary changes might help Labour because some cities like London and Bristol are underrepresented because of population shifts over the last 20 years.
Conservative (7/10) SNP (6/10) Labour (5/10) LibDem (0/10) Brexit (-10/10)
The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.
The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.
Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.
The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.
The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
I think Labour had a bad campaign. Dogged by anti-semitism that has now broken through to a much wider audience than the politically engaged. A risible stance on Brexit, from a leader who was at best ambivalent about stopping it. And a retail offer that was already eye-wateringly massive even before they pulled £58 billion out of their arse. Good man-management though - you wouldn't have any evidence from this campaign that Diane Abbott was still alive.
Sad to say, the person who had a -20/10 campaign was OGH and Those Bloody Ridiculous Letters. Our Polling Expert says "Only Prime Minister Jo Swinson can win Bootle...."
Over the course of the last few weeks, ElectoralCalculus have shown Ceredigion being won by Plaid Cymru, then the LibDems, and then (bizarrely) Labour.
So, it is no surprise that the final Electoral Calculus now shows Ceredigion being won by the Tories. (This is a seat that they have never held in modern times.)
I think if the Labour vote is as high as suggested by EC, then Plaid Cymru will likely retain the seat. The LibDems needs to get the Labour vote down to take Ceredigion.
I dont think Ceredigion is now any more a naturally "libDem" area than say Dwyfor (where the LibDems polled 3% in 2017). I just think that voters have historically coalesced around the libDems as the best way to stop Plaid. If the LibDems lose that USP, then I can see the LibDem vote fading away quite quickly in Ceredigion.
Curious for the first time in ages, whilst certain who I will vote against I am still not 100% who I will vote for this time. In one of the safest Tory seats, it won't change the result but every vote counts. One of Lab/Grn/Lib. You cannot ignore the fact that climate change is the most important challenge we face. Lab have the best Brexit and social policy and the libs whilst 3rd last time are the most likely challenger in the seat. I have a lot of friends in the local CLP that deserve support, but concerns about the leadership. Fascinating.
There may be fewer polling stations this time (hence longer queues) since local authorities are finding it harder to get staff to participate? (or just have much fewer staff available...)
You cant just change polling stations like that. Changes in polling arrangements by local authorities need to go through a formal consultation and decision making process.
Really? What if a venue isn’t available? And reducing individual stations within one venue? Or the number of clerks overseeing each one?
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
Over the course of the last few weeks, ElectoralCalculus have shown Ceredigion being won by Plaid Cymru, then the LibDems, and then (bizarrely) Labour.
So, it is no surprise that the final Electoral Calculus now shows Ceredigion being won by the Tories. (This is a seat that they have never held in modern times.)
I think if the Labour vote is as high as suggested by EC, then Plaid Cymru will likely retain the seat. The LibDems needs to get the Labour vote down to take Ceredigion.
This is such an interesting constituency. I`m on Plaid Cymru - but have a very small wager on Tories at 16/1 as I just wonder whether Lab/LD/PC will split vote letting Tories through. That`s what Electoral Calculus predicts.
Don't worry Dan, John Curtice has already told us that Labour can't get an overall majority.
For the first time in my lifetime the economically illiterate badge can apply not just to Labour, but also so-called Conservative. Thanks Brexiteers, you muppets.
while a hung parliament is my preferred outcome today, I do almost wonder if I would prefer a large tory majority to à small one, on the off chance that it means Boris Johnson feels able to govern more as he did while mayor as a one nation type and throw the ERG overboard like he did the DUP.
If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.
My guess today is
42 tories 35 labour 11 Lib Dems
Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.
Conservative (7/10) SNP (6/10) Labour (5/10) LibDem (0/10) Brexit (-10/10)
The Johnson/Cummings strategy of embracing and then eliminating the Brexit Party, as revealed in August, is what will deliver the majority for them. The rest is detail, or at least trends that counteract each other.
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
Interesting to consider what projections would be had Conservatives instigated a “normal” boundary review - 650 seats et al. We’re still using 2005 boundaries. It’ll get to a point where people start claiming that any boundary review, even the fairest, least politically influenced, is a gerrymander.
Also worth remembering that boundary reviews can play havoc with tactical voting.
Boundary changes might help Labour because some cities like London and Bristol are underrepresented because of population shifts over the last 20 years.
I agree. On a 650-seat basis the changes wont be that dramatic, and wont make much difference to the likely result overall. Especially as the political geography is changing around us.
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
Conservative (7/10) SNP (6/10) Labour (5/10) LibDem (0/10) Brexit (-10/10)
The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.
The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.
Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.
The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.
The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
I think Labour had a bad campaign. Dogged by anti-semitism that has now broken through to a much wider audience than the politically engaged. A risible stance on Brexit, from a leader who was at best ambivalent about stopping it. And a retail offer that was already eye-wateringly massive even before they pulled £58 billion out of their arse. Good man-management though - you wouldn't have any evidence from this campaign that Diane Abbott was still alive.
Sad to say, the person who had a -20/10 campaign was OGH and Those Bloody Ridiculous Letters. Our Polling Expert says "Only Prime Minister Jo Swinson can win Bootle...."
"Only Labour or the Liberal Democrats can win here" in seats both the blues and reds got over 45% and was blue 2010-17 and yellows only just saved their deposit last time.
I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?
Conservative (7/10) SNP (6/10) Labour (5/10) LibDem (0/10) Brexit (-10/10)
The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.
The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.
Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.
The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.
The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.
You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)
The two final Scottish polls (Survation and YouGov) seem pretty consistent with each other.
On the other hand, there is a marked difference between the YouGov ITV Wales poll of 6-9 Dec and the YouGov final call poll of 10 Dec. 3% and 9% Con lead respectively. Very curious.
For the record, despite recommending it here last month I yesterday bailed out of my previous Plaid at <4.5 seats 4/6 bet by getting on Plaid at >4.5 seats at 2/1. The reason is that Plaid are clearly in the mix in Ynys Mon and with the collapse of the LDs in Wales they seem bound to win Ceredigion if they perform strongly enough to win Ynys Mon. I recommended the 4/6 when Plaid and the LDs were polling equally in Wales, now Plaid have double the LDs share according to the YouGov MRP.
My only other bet is for Cons to win Norfolk North at 7/4.
Turnout hasn't been above 70% since 1997, when it was 71.4%.
Any feeling for turnout? I think it will be low - 65%ish.
But bear in mind, this is a much fresher register than one used to fight a May or June election. Fewer have died, fewer have left the country to live or work. I reckon that is worth a couple of points differential.
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.
I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.
There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.
Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
How is leaving a particular politico-economic grouping extremist? One of the reasons people voted "out" was because we were told we weren't allowed to. Being outside the EU isn't an extreme position (ask the Norwegians, Swiss, and even the Manx) so moving from one state to the other can't be regarded as extreme.
Conservative (7/10) SNP (6/10) Labour (5/10) LibDem (0/10) Brexit (-10/10)
The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.
The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.
Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.
The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.
The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.
I think Labour had a bad campaign. Dogged by anti-semitism that has now broken through to a much wider audience than the politically engaged. A risible stance on Brexit, from a leader who was at best ambivalent about stopping it. And a retail offer that was already eye-wateringly massive even before they pulled £58 billion out of their arse. Good man-management though - you wouldn't have any evidence from this campaign that Diane Abbott was still alive.
Sad to say, the person who had a -20/10 campaign was OGH and Those Bloody Ridiculous Letters. Our Polling Expert says "Only Prime Minister Jo Swinson can win Bootle...."
"Only Labour or the Liberal Democrats can win here" in seats both the blues and reds got over 45% and was blue 2010-17 and yellows only just saved their deposit last time.
And what fun we other parties will have on their leaflets comparing the 2019 EU's with the 2019 General. "Libems crashing their vote here"
"But...but...but - you can't use the Euro vote to compare......"
I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?
If your local party is serious, they should be organising people to take sample counts from the boxes in the promising polling districts (thinking ahead to the next local elections). For which someone needs to pop into the polling station and get hold of the box numbers you will be interested in later.
In a safe seat the counting stage is normally standing around chatting with colleagues and opponents. But if you really do expect to be near the deposit-saving stage then you need to be watching the count like hawks and checking everything. Your agent should know what you need to be doing.
I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?
Talk to your opponents from all other parties. You'll find that most of them are human beings after all.
Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.
You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)
And thank you to @murali_s for that constructive Thought for the Day
Over the course of the last few weeks, ElectoralCalculus have shown Ceredigion being won by Plaid Cymru, then the LibDems, and then (bizarrely) Labour.
So, it is no surprise that the final Electoral Calculus now shows Ceredigion being won by the Tories. (This is a seat that they have never held in modern times.)
I think if the Labour vote is as high as suggested by EC, then Plaid Cymru will likely retain the seat. The LibDems needs to get the Labour vote down to take Ceredigion.
I dont think Ceredigion is now any more a naturally "libDem" area than say Dwyfor (where the LibDems polled 3% in 2017). I just think that voters have historically coalesced around the libDems as the best way to stop Plaid. If the LibDems lose that USP, then I can see the LibDem vote fading away quite quickly in Ceredigion.
Perhaps. Dwyfor has no Universities and one LibDem Councillor. Ceredigion has two Universities and eight LibDem Councillors.
Your reading makes it plausible that Plaid will retain the seat, as the party to vote for to stop Plaid is now very unclear. If you're right, we should see the LibDems begin to fall back here.
Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.
You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)
And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
He is probably thinking that your pea-brain forgot to switch on the spell checker! lol
Brexit = the biggest self inflicted calamity that this country has undergone since the Second World War.
You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)
And thank you to @murali_s forvtgat constructive Thought for the Day
I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?
If your local party is serious, they should be organising people to take sample counts from the boxes in the promising polling districts (thinking ahead to the next local elections). For which someone needs to pop into the polling station and get hold of the box numbers you will be interested in later.
In a safe seat the counting stage is normally standing around chatting with colleagues and opponents. But if you really do expect to be near the deposit-saving stage then you need to be watching the count like hawks and checking everything. Your agent should know what you need to be doing.
Yes, we are reasonably well organised with clipboards and tally sheets. I think most of the others have done this before, but it's a new experience for me.
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
Which part of the country are you in IYDMMA?
In the IOW, just coming off the polling station having lent the Green Party a hand. First election with any rosette other than orange for forty years
Curious for the first time in ages, whilst certain who I will vote against I am still not 100% who I will vote for this time. In one of the safest Tory seats, it won't change the result but every vote counts. One of Lab/Grn/Lib. You cannot ignore the fact that climate change is the most important challenge we face. Lab have the best Brexit and social policy and the libs whilst 3rd last time are the most likely challenger in the seat. I have a lot of friends in the local CLP that deserve support, but concerns about the leadership. Fascinating.
By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.
I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
If only anyone knew what One Nation means.
I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.
There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.
A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.
Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist
Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.
How is leaving a particular politico-economic grouping extremist? One of the reasons people voted "out" was because we were told we weren't allowed to. Being outside the EU isn't an extreme position (ask the Norwegians, Swiss, and even the Manx) so moving from one state to the other can't be regarded as extreme.
It is the motivations and the language used by its supporters that were extreme. Not all people that have been traditionally against the EU are extreme in their views generally (Mr Dancer being a good example), but I would argue that Brexit as a concept and movement (Leave) most definitely has the hallmarks of extremism. Thank Nigel Farage and Arron Banks for that, oh, and Vladimir Putin.
I usually vote in the evenings, nice summer walk. But this time that's not an option.
So are people voting early for this reason?
The weather is certainly forecast to be worse later, also people will have Christmas socials and shopping to go to. I normally vote in the evening as my polling station is on the way back from where my running club meets for its Thursday run and at 19:45 I never have to queue.
What's with the big drift on Betfair? It was down to 1.35 last night when Survation came out, now 1.43.
Presuming the Evening Standard poll isn't going to be good for the Tories.
Chillax man!
Tories still favourires for an overall majority.
And thanks for all the data work work you're done. Probably have little in common politically but still a shoutout for the data which I will surely use tonight!
Lab: If Conservatives have in the past campaigned on the economy, and New Labour narrowly on public services, Corbynism has been the first time society has been discussed beyond a, y'all can help each other can't you, in a generation. Putting renewing society in the Overton Window should be the minimum legacy of the far left takeover.
What's with the big drift on Betfair? It was down to 1.35 last night when Survation came out, now 1.43.
Presuming the Evening Standard poll isn't going to be good for the Tories.
Chillax man!
Tories still favourires for an overall majority.
And thanks for all the data work work you're done. Probably have little in common politically but still a shoutout for the data which I will surely use tonight!
Thanks...As nervous it won't work on the night as the actual GE result.
Grey, frosty and drizzle in East Leics. Polling station has steady stream of voters, mostly working age voting on their way in to work like myself. Still not seen a Tory poster in any Leics constituency, but the county is donkey with a blue rosette territory, and boy do we have some donkeys...
Turnout, and turnout of which groups, will be particularly important in northern/midlands /wales ex-industrial seats. Has anyone already had time to see the pace of voting there, and vague senses of voter profiles ?
"Only Labour or the Liberal Democrats can win here" in seats both the blues and reds got over 45% and was blue 2010-17 and yellows only just saved their deposit last time.
And what fun we other parties will have on their leaflets comparing the 2019 EU's with the 2019 General. "Libems crashing their vote here"
"But...but...but - you can't use the Euro vote to compare......"
"Really? You did....
Before the campaign started, we predicted disinformation about tactical voting. It is a shame we could not bet on it. What will be interesting in the post mortems is which sources are identified beyond the usual suspects.
Curious for the first time in ages, whilst certain who I will vote against I am still not 100% who I will vote for this time. In one of the safest Tory seats, it won't change the result but every vote counts. One of Lab/Grn/Lib. You cannot ignore the fact that climate change is the most important challenge we face. Lab have the best Brexit and social policy and the libs whilst 3rd last time are the most likely challenger in the seat. I have a lot of friends in the local CLP that deserve support, but concerns about the leadership. Fascinating.
A Green vote makes a statement about the environment. A vote for Labour will be seen as an endorsement of Corbyn.
Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .
Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.
area ?
Small town far north of England.
It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.
Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
Curious for the first time in ages, whilst certain who I will vote against I am still not 100% who I will vote for this time. In one of the safest Tory seats, it won't change the result but every vote counts. One of Lab/Grn/Lib. You cannot ignore the fact that climate change is the most important challenge we face. Lab have the best Brexit and social policy and the libs whilst 3rd last time are the most likely challenger in the seat. I have a lot of friends in the local CLP that deserve support, but concerns about the leadership. Fascinating.
arguable
climate change is not the major threat to the UK imo
our issue are more plastics, over consumption and sustainability
By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.
I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.
It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...
You would think absolutely anything that might make you think that its going to be a hung parliament. Unless all the polls are wrong then its a comfortable tory majority.
You're not an overly pleasant person at times. I think it will be a narrow Conservative win and I'm on to make money tonight.
I just don't think the Conservatives sounded very confident last night. ITV News said the same thing. Don't shoot me for passing on something that is out there.
The one thing I do know is that you can't judge anything about an election from the mood of the candidate on the night before.
There was an article in one of the papers yesterday saying that at this stage all candidates have convinced themselves that they are going to lose. Most of them are right of course...
I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?
If your local party is serious, they should be organising people to take sample counts from the boxes in the promising polling districts (thinking ahead to the next local elections). For which someone needs to pop into the polling station and get hold of the box numbers you will be interested in later.
In a safe seat the counting stage is normally standing around chatting with colleagues and opponents. But if you really do expect to be near the deposit-saving stage then you need to be watching the count like hawks and checking everything. Your agent should know what you need to be doing.
Yes, we are reasonably well organised with clipboards and tally sheets. I think most of the others have done this before, but it's a new experience for me.
Most scrutineers spend their time watching to see that votes don't get sorted into the wrong pile, which is pretty rare at a general election with a single X and usually a relatively short list of candidates.
The mistakes are more likely to be in the counting - a mistake by the counting agent with a bundle either one short or one over the correct total. Count along with the counting agent, and don't be afraid to ask them to count a bundle again if you think they might have made a mistake.
The really big mistakes at counts happen when the votes left over are being aggregated from the various tables to make full bundles, if a few votes for one candidate happen to end up on top of a whole batch for another. When counted votes are being moved around from one table to another, keep a good lookout, although it's more difficult to spot such mistakes from a distance. Normally they come to light when there is a bundle check requested by one of the agents, if things are close. If you finish close to the deposit line, your agent should certainly ask for a bundle check (if you are just below the line. If s/he asks when you are just above the line, you need a new agent)
I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.
Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.
I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
I love these kind of things. Confected anger and unhappiness are a staple of left politics in the UK. Yet when ever those kind of things are measured people seem no less happy than years ago. Sometimes it seems people want others to be unhappy as it validates their wold view.
Comments
So after all things considered, the Yellow Peril got my vote. Not that it directly matters, given Mr Gove is as a safe as houses.
Sad to say, the person who had a -20/10 campaign was OGH and Those Bloody Ridiculous Letters. Our Polling Expert says "Only Prime Minister Jo Swinson can win Bootle...."
I just think that voters have historically coalesced around the libDems as the best way to stop Plaid.
If the LibDems lose that USP, then I can see the LibDem vote fading away quite quickly in Ceredigion.
I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
Just saying.
Or they’re out tonight and can’t vote after work.
You Brexiteers will own this calamity and it won't end pretty. You pea-brained morons (not those who voted Leave because quite a lot of people have changed their minds, it's those numpties who actually still think it is a good idea!)
The two final Scottish polls (Survation and YouGov) seem pretty consistent with each other.
On the other hand, there is a marked difference between the YouGov ITV Wales poll of 6-9 Dec and the YouGov final call poll of 10 Dec. 3% and 9% Con lead respectively. Very curious.
For the record, despite recommending it here last month I yesterday bailed out of my previous Plaid at <4.5 seats 4/6 bet by getting on Plaid at >4.5 seats at 2/1. The reason is that Plaid are clearly in the mix in Ynys Mon and with the collapse of the LDs in Wales they seem bound to win Ceredigion if they perform strongly enough to win Ynys Mon. I recommended the 4/6 when Plaid and the LDs were polling equally in Wales, now Plaid have double the LDs share according to the YouGov MRP.
My only other bet is for Cons to win Norfolk North at 7/4.
Is Dan Snow deliberately being opaque or is he taking a side and being unclear about? In which case, which one?!
"But...but...but - you can't use the Euro vote to compare......"
"Really? You did....
In a safe seat the counting stage is normally standing around chatting with colleagues and opponents. But if you really do expect to be near the deposit-saving stage then you need to be watching the count like hawks and checking everything. Your agent should know what you need to be doing.
So are people voting early for this reason?
Your reading makes it plausible that Plaid will retain the seat, as the party to vote for to stop Plaid is now very unclear. If you're right, we should see the LibDems begin to fall back here.
Mrs Fleet reports roughly 300% normal rate of voting so far at her polling station (small town in Wantage constituency).
Presuming the Evening Standard poll isn't going to be good for the Tories.
Tories still favourires for an overall majority.
And thanks for all the data work work you're done. Probably have little in common politically but still a shoutout for the data which I will surely use tonight!
Lab: If Conservatives have in the past campaigned on the economy, and New Labour narrowly on public services, Corbynism has been the first time society has been discussed beyond a, y'all can help each other can't you, in a generation. Putting renewing society in the Overton Window should be the minimum legacy of the far left takeover.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1204925881543778306
could impact on Darlington and Stockton south races.
Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
climate change is not the major threat to the UK imo
our issue are more plastics, over consumption and sustainability
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1128013295259090944
The mistakes are more likely to be in the counting - a mistake by the counting agent with a bundle either one short or one over the correct total. Count along with the counting agent, and don't be afraid to ask them to count a bundle again if you think they might have made a mistake.
The really big mistakes at counts happen when the votes left over are being aggregated from the various tables to make full bundles, if a few votes for one candidate happen to end up on top of a whole batch for another. When counted votes are being moved around from one table to another, keep a good lookout, although it's more difficult to spot such mistakes from a distance. Normally they come to light when there is a bundle check requested by one of the agents, if things are close. If you finish close to the deposit line, your agent should certainly ask for a bundle check (if you are just below the line. If s/he asks when you are just above the line, you need a new agent)
For the first time since 2001 I've actually voted on the day.
The result in Darlington will confirm whether Sedgefield turns blue.