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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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  • Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Jamei said:

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
    It's up against all 3 major currencies on the day. What are you talking about?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    alex_ said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

    Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.
    Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.
    Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

    I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.
    Don’t forget his unsavoury friendships and relaxed attitude towards anti-semitism.
    He doesn't have a "relaxed attitude to anti-semitism;" he is an anti-semite. He didn't tolerate somebody else in the party making the claim that Jews lack a sense of irony, for instance. Stop pretending.
    As I'm sure you know, Corbyn didn't say anything about Jews in general lacking a sense of irony. He said it about a specific group of people who attended a particular meeting.

    But no doubt as people think they're on to a good thing with this, they'll carry on lying about it.
    Alternatively, Labour could just do something about the anti-semites in the party and stop this line of attack dead.

    I have a Jewish friend who is ready to push the button on moving his family to Switzerland, if Labour gets anywhere near power. That he has had to plan this is a damning indictment on Corbyn's Labour. I can only hope that tonight Labour get soundly beaten - and the calculation at the top of the party that they gain net votes from their unrestricted anti-Israel stance gets knocked all out of whack.
    Conversely, my Jewish wife who hasn't voted Labour since 2005, tells me she's just dropped in her vote for Corbyn on the way to work ( Camden ).
    Yep. I’m Jewish and have never voted Labour at a GE until today.
    All the Jewish people I know are voting Labour, but then they are all under 35, so very tough demographic for the Tories anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Why is Betfair spooked?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    It is absolutely pissing down in Ystrad Mynach. But then I'd be saying the same if the election was in May!

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm looking forward to observing the count on behalf of the Lib Dems for the first time tonight. It's a safe Tory seat, but hopefully we will at least save our deposit this time round! Best we can do is take second place off Labour. Any tips for how to make best use of the opportunity?

    If your local party is serious, they should be organising people to take sample counts from the boxes in the promising polling districts (thinking ahead to the next local elections). For which someone needs to pop into the polling station and get hold of the box numbers you will be interested in later.

    In a safe seat the counting stage is normally standing around chatting with colleagues and opponents. But if you really do expect to be near the deposit-saving stage then you need to be watching the count like hawks and checking everything. Your agent should know what you need to be doing.

    Yes, we are reasonably well organised with clipboards and tally sheets. I think most of the others have done this before, but it's a new experience for me.
    Most scrutineers spend their time watching to see that votes don't get sorted into the wrong pile, which is pretty rare at a general election with a single X and usually a relatively short list of candidates.

    The mistakes are more likely to be in the counting - a mistake by the counting agent with a bundle either one short or one over the correct total. Count along with the counting agent, and don't be afraid to ask them to count a bundle again if you think they might have made a mistake.

    The really big mistakes at counts happen when the votes left over are being aggregated from the various tables to make full bundles, if a few votes for one candidate happen to end up on top of a whole batch for another. When counted votes are being moved around from one table to another, keep a good lookout, although it's more difficult to spot such mistakes from a distance. Normally they come to light when there is a bundle check requested by one of the agents, if things are close. If you finish close to the deposit line, your agent should certainly ask for a bundle check (if you are just below the line. If s/he asks when you are just above the line, you need a new agent)
    Thank you for the tips, Ian. Hopefully we won't be too close to the deposit line this time. We were just below 5% last election, but have campaigned much more vigorously this election, local circumstances are more favourable, and feedback has been good.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166

    Poruing down now in Walthamstow/Chingford.....busy at voting station in Walthamstow around 8.45

    Difficult to believe Walthamstow was won by the Tories only 8 elections ago.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Jamei said:

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
    Eventually, the penny will drop.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    When are we getting MORI?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Jamei said:

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
    Against the dollar a bit, but not noticeably against the Euro or the Yen.
  • Anorak said:

    Personal anecdote.

    Well that was the most difficult vote I've ever cast. Stood staring at the ballot paper for quite a while, my 10 year old daughter silently judging me at my elbow.

    Labour - led by economically insane racist lunatic
    Conservative - led by populist lying racist lunatic
    Lib Dem - incompetent and confused over what does and does not constitute a 'woman'
    Green - mental crypto-communist
    Brexit - mental crypto-fascist

    Came very close to spoiling the paper for the first time ever, but my judgemental offspring meant I had to do something positive so I took the rather feeble option of the Lib Dems.

    [Station was just as busy as 2017 (maybe a bit quieter), current Labour candidate is fairly anti-Corbyn with a mid-size majority]

    Yours is a logical choice. I have not voted yet, but I am in my early 50s and have voted Tory in all of the last 8 GEs. Never have the two potential PMs been both so shockingly inappropriate in so many ways. I will vote LD
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
  • IPSOS shows small lead I think
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
    George and Ed were excellent last time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited December 2019

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    According to the Guardian they poll in 144 seats which I presume are all the seats they'd ever expect to change, so it sounds like it should be nailed on for those seats and thus be able to predict the outcome very well. But...

    ... they obviously cannot cover every polling station for 15 hours in those seats, nor can they guarantee that the self-selecting respondents are representative.

    So I'd have thought that there is room for systemic errors.
  • melcf said:

    This antisemitic issue was blown out of proportion and is just a stick to beat Corbyn and vilify him. Backed by the right wing press, who historically have been massive antisemites themselves
    Boris, through his own writing is a racist and an Islamophobe. Like a true right wing racist, he spared no one and then went on to attack single mums and the 20% poor or depraved sections of society, as he referred to them.

    I'm very intrigued by this argument, when one party is accused of racism to immediately accuse the other.

    It doesn't matter what the other party is doing or is like, clean up your own house before judging others.
  • When are we getting MORI?

    Before midday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.
    People born in 1977 aren't old.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,463
    Coming into Swindon 2 (marginal -ish) Tory defences - horrible cold wet weather, not much enthusiasm for voting according to my observations. I think turnout may be lower than I put money on, not sure at all if both seats will stay Blue...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    I've stayed up all night through then last three GEs and the Brexit Ref (and gone to work the next day). I usually have PB on the laptop, Twitter on the phone and flick between Sky and BBC on TV.

    I'm going to struggle tonight. We had a mad one in our house on the weekend and I'm still a bit tired.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Forth like a mill pond by the way.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
    Quite so. Balls is a class act.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Less than 12 hours to go...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    NOM back below 2/1
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Andy_JS said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.
    People born in 1977 aren't old.
    I know... I meant old(er).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Brom said:

    Seems very strange that Tory majority drifting so much yet Lab vote share over 35% not shortening. Who knows what these movements are all about.

    Probably fun and games by hedge fund managers.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Labour’s vote holding up apparently.
  • When are we getting MORI?

    Before midday.
    Can the do that? It is polling day - I thought no polls were allowed to be published on polling day
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited December 2019
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

    Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

    area ?
    Small town far north of England.

    It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.
    There's heavy rain already here. Appalling weather.

    I don't subscribe to the view that weather has much direct effect on turnout. But it is going to reduce the amount of campaigning that all but the most dedicated feel like doing on the doorstep.
    It hasn't stopped us campaigning for the past six weeks, when it feels like it never stopped raining....
    Ah, I remember May 1997. It was a terrible result. But what a glorious day! I was the first one in the polling station that morning - the sun had woken me early, and it was impossible to stay in bed on such a fine morning.

    Positive-ish thought for the morning - however much you fear one result, there are people - good, clever and kind people - who fear the other one. So be nice.
    May 1997 was fantastic! I remember cycling around Bristol on the Friday after the election and almost everyone was happy and smiling. The only people who weren't was a retired couple waiting for a bus looking decidedly grumpy, but that probably had more to do with Bristol's publict transport than the election.
    I loved the late 90s. Young, fit and happy. I liked Blair but I do think he was lucky to govern during such a benign time, especially those first few years. I remember going on a fortnight's holiday to Spain that year with the boys for £280!

    I'm now old, not so fit and happy.
    You can't be old if you were young in the late 90's! Middle-aged possibly.

    I was young the late 50's! The 60's were good!!
    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.
    Ah, Elvis. Rock and roll. Girls dancing in the cinema to 'Rock around the Clock'! Skirts swirling and knickers showing!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    But you don't know of any evidence of personal anti-semitism on his part?

    Because if anyone does, I would genuinely like to hear it.

    Read wot I wrote. I don't think he personally dislikes Jews. But he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened and has associated with people who celebrate the death of Jews. Repeatedly.

    We're back to that duck thing again, aren't we. But yes, if he bumped into Rabbi Cohen in the street I'm sure they would reminisce about those times on Cable Street or at a Rock against Racism rally back in the day (before the latter type of demonstration was flooded with pro-Palestine supporters).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I've heard that CCHQ very confident, so that doesn't tie in with Betfair movements. Very confusing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV is by far the best these days. Balls and Ossie a superb double act.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    MORI?
    This cant be just profit taking surely
    Of course it can.
    Won't be allowed to publish as polls have opened?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Byronic said:

    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day

    It almost certainly is. I've not checked the data but I strongly suspect that if you bet against price moves during election days you'd make a healthy profit over time. There is no new information, it's as simple as that. We don't have reliable turnout indicators, or what high/low turnout would even mean, and we don't start counting during the day so there literally can't be leaked information.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890

    Labour’s vote holding up apparently.

    Sauce ?
  • When are we getting MORI?

    Before midday.
    Can the do that? It is polling day - I thought no polls were allowed to be published on polling day
    So long as the fieldwork has ended before Election Day then you’re fine to publish it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
    Even as a lefty, I have to agree with you the Labour Shadow Cab lack of talent appears to be at least as bad as the Tories.

    I just prefer Labour's policies compared to Tories' non-policies, is all.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Byronic said:

    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

    gives me decimals, with fractions if you put the cursor over them

    I feel a real man today - as an infrequent and low stakes punter I have had £100 of con maj at 1.57. Seems rude not to.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
    One of the peculiar effects of this election has been people who never voted for for Ed Balls or George Osborne or Ken Clarke -- & probably hated them when they were active Parliamentarians -- are now suddenly writing swoony love letters to them.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Betfair election dates have paid out, nice £72 from £30 at 3.40 odds back in May
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour’s vote holding up apparently.

    Sauce ?
    I love the PB rumours and anecdotes on GE day, when basically none of us has a clue what's happening across the UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
    Thanks I will take your advice.

    Next, what should I top my home made election night pizza with?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
    One of the peculiar effects of this election has been people who never voted for for Ed Balls or George Osborne or Ken Clarke -- & probably hated them when they were active Parliamentarians -- are now suddenly writing swoony love letters to them.
    Funny old world isn’t it
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017

    So the Scandi model still works best. When will a political party put that to us in the UK? Education, Investment, Economy and Inequality please.
    In Scotland: more or less now.

    In England/Wales: after the electoral system is made fit for purpose. A few moments before the heat death of the universe.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Jamei said:

    wills66 said:

    1.57 on Betfair? What is this? I've taken a bit of that as it seems like a bargain but something very strange is happening to spook the markets that way. NOM is now at 2.96.

    WillS

    Must be to do with the last unpublished polls.
    Pound dropping too
    Eventually, the penny will drop.
    The moment when we find out @bbclaurak has been conducting all the polls except Comres and that MORI
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour’s vote holding up apparently.

    Sauce ?
    Ketchup.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Poruing down now in Walthamstow/Chingford.....busy at voting station in Walthamstow around 8.45

    Difficult to believe Walthamstow was won by the Tories only 8 elections ago.
    I think Stella is a very effective MP -high profile around the place - she is the only reason I voted Labour this time.
  • Brom said:

    I've heard that CCHQ very confident, so that doesn't tie in with Betfair movements. Very confusing.

    Everyone is always confident
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    Byronic said:

    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day

    "Betfair Sportsbook uses both fractional and decimal odds, you can switch between the two at any point, either from:
    Desktop: by selecting either fractional or decimal from the black banner at the bottom of the page.
    Mobile: by clicking on your balance and selecting 'Settings' and 'Odds Display'."

    https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/6482/c/483/
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Byronic said:

    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day

    You invert them.
    So 1.5 = 1/1.5 = 67%
    2.0 = 1/2 = 50%
    3.0 = 1/3 = 33%

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    What I dont get is Con majority drifting out, yet Con 40-45% vote share coming in and Lab 35-40% drifting out.

    So there is no correlation. It looks like hedge fund money moves to me
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited December 2019
    @OldKingCole

    :)

    I was born in 1977. Just after Elvis perished.

    Ah, Elvis. Rock and roll. Girls dancing in the cinema to 'Rock around the Clock'! Skirts swirling and knickers showing!

    .........................................................................................

    Awesome. I should've lived through the 50s and 60s (I'm a big Beatles fan).

    The Elvis documentary (HBO?) out last year was SUPERB. He came across as a genuinely sweet, lovely young man... "I just wanted to buy a new house for my Mama"... ah.
  • Two personal anecdotes (NW safeish blue constituency).

    On my road there have been 4 houses with placards outside the house. 2 with Labour (1 with a giant Unite flag too) and 2 Tory. Today there's just 2 Labour. One house which had Tory placards has a Tory poster on what I presume is the bedroom window but it looks like the placards outside were stolen overnight.

    I voted earlier than normal, normally vote late afternoon but voted ~9:40 - I asked how the turnout was looking and the guy handing out the ballots said it was quite steady and there was a queue this morning. Not sure if its all people voting earlier than normal like we did, or if turnout is going to be up but I stick to my prediction all campaign of this having the highest turnout for at least 20 years. Who that helps I don't know.
  • CCHQ were confident even after the exit poll came in.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    I've heard that CCHQ very confident, so that doesn't tie in with Betfair movements. Very confusing.

    The Tories have two modes: complacency, and panic. Expect the latter after MORI, I reckon.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Slightly surprised that the article talks about the post 4.00am seats such as Winchester being the LD indicator. Cities of London & Westminster and Guildford are both scheduled to declare between 3 and 3.30. and should provide an excellent pointer to what is happening in Con/LD marginals in London and the SE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166

    Andy_JS said:

    Poruing down now in Walthamstow/Chingford.....busy at voting station in Walthamstow around 8.45

    Difficult to believe Walthamstow was won by the Tories only 8 elections ago.
    I think Stella is a very effective MP -high profile around the place - she is the only reason I voted Labour this time.
    Maybe she's a possible future leader of the party.
  • Huge London general election day turnout with massive queues and polling stations '20 times busier'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-turnout-polling-stations-2017-a4311561.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    But you don't know of any evidence of personal anti-semitism on his part?

    Because if anyone does, I would genuinely like to hear it.

    Read wot I wrote. I don't think he personally dislikes Jews. But he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened and has associated with people who celebrate the death of Jews. Repeatedly.

    We're back to that duck thing again, aren't we. But yes, if he bumped into Rabbi Cohen in the street I'm sure they would reminisce about those times on Cable Street or at a Rock against Racism rally back in the day (before the latter type of demonstration was flooded with pro-Palestine supporters).
    I did read what you wrote, and actually you seem to be agreeing with me. No evidence of personal antisemitism, but criticism of the state of the party he has presided over.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    I do love PB anecdotes on polling day. What a ride
  • So I reckon the Tories are getting roasted in London.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Yes but if its not behind the red wall will it make a difference?
  • Surely the betfair jump can't just be down to Ipsos Mori, no one poll could move it that much surely?

    Especially after 11 or so polls yesterday
  • So I reckon the Tories are getting roasted in London.

    Good
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
    Even as a lefty, I have to agree with you the Labour Shadow Cab lack of talent appears to be at least as bad as the Tories.

    I just prefer Labour's policies compared to Tories' non-policies, is all.
    There was a brilliant comment on here yesterday which I have shamelessly pinched. The problem with Boris is that he doesn’t believe in anything. The bigger problem with Corbyn is that he does.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Huge London general election day turnout with massive queues and polling stations '20 times busier'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-turnout-polling-stations-2017-a4311561.html

    Just like the referendum...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2019
    Fenster said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour’s vote holding up apparently.

    Sauce ?
    I love the PB rumours and anecdotes on GE day, when basically none of us has a clue what's happening across the UK.
    And the extremely strange* phenomenon that the anecdotes and rumours mysteriously coincide with the individuals' personal preferences.

    *not strange
  • Brom said:

    Huge London general election day turnout with massive queues and polling stations '20 times busier'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-turnout-polling-stations-2017-a4311561.html

    Just like the referendum...
    Yes but if Labour take those five seats the Tories are in trouble
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited December 2019
    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1205065120755470338?s=21

    That is John Redwood is it not? I would savour that moment if it was a Portillo Event
  • So voting is "brisk" this morning rather than "steady"? Are there any other permitted voting levels?
  • Brom said:

    Yes but if its not behind the red wall will it make a difference?
    Look at Mike’s comments
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Yes but if its not behind the red wall will it make a difference?
    Look at Mike’s comments
    I did, Bedford is not the red wall and Wokingham will be blue, where are all the students in Wokingham?
  • Surely the betfair jump can't just be down to Ipsos Mori, no one poll could move it that much surely?

    Especially after 11 or so polls yesterday

    More likely due to turnout anecdotes, and profit taking/speculation surely?

    I wouldn't read too much into it.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    I'm on a long flight today to exotic and warm parts. By the time I land and clear immigration we'll probably have the exit poll.

    Con Maj - happy holidays
    Hung Parl - stress on vacation
    Lab Maj - I stay out here.

    So do bear in mind my holiday plans when you vote today :wink:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Just got back in. Tory maj gone from 1.36 to 1.54??

    What have i missed?
  • Surely we should expect a far higher early turnout than normal.

    It is a December election, with rain forecast later
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Lump some money on most seats Labour I expect that will come in
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Stocky said:

    Just got back in. Tory maj gone from 1.36 to 1.54??

    What have i missed?

    We don’t know
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IshmaelZ said:

    YUGE, YUGE movement on betfair NOM in to 2.9 con maj out to 1.55. This is massive. wtf?

    Sorry to show my ignorance, as though I love the political insights this site brings I do not bet. What does that infer?
    Nothing.

    Unless anyone can point to any of the recent electoral contests where betting movements in the 24 hours before the result actually told us anything of worth?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
    One of the peculiar effects of this election has been people who never voted for for Ed Balls or George Osborne or Ken Clarke -- & probably hated them when they were active Parliamentarians -- are now suddenly writing swoony love letters to them.
    I wouldn't go that far but I take your point.

    Time mellows the views but I never came to feel anything other than deep dislike for Thatcher.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    stjohn said:

    Byronic said:

    How do I find the Betfair prices expressed as decimals not fractions?

    This could just be rumours on a febrile day

    You invert them.
    So 1.5 = 1/1.5 = 67%
    2.0 = 1/2 = 50%
    3.0 = 1/3 = 33%

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.
  • Surely we should expect a far higher early turnout than normal.

    It is a December election, with rain forecast later

    Precisely. I expect turnout will be up close to 2016 levels but largely early on. People will want to get it out of the way so they're not doing it after dark.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    edited December 2019

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
    Even as a lefty, I have to agree with you the Labour Shadow Cab lack of talent appears to be at least as bad as the Tories.

    I just prefer Labour's policies compared to Tories' non-policies, is all.
    Naught but Labour Propaganda! :lol:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,166
    The election will be decided in unfashionable parts of the country like West Bromwich, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Rother Valley, Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Wrexham, Bolsover.

    On the other hand, most of the reports, gossip and rumour we'll get today will probably be from places like Putney, Wimbledon, Wokingham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, etc, which won't have such a big impact on the overall result.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Israel about to run another election. Third one in a year according to BBC.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited December 2019
    I suspect turnout in London will be much higher in the morning, given that in the evening you are likely to get stabbed/mugged/mopedded :)
  • So I reckon the Tories are getting roasted in London.

    Naught but LibDem propaganda :lol:
  • Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Fenster said:

    I suspect turnout in London will be much higher in the morning, given that in the evening you are likely to get stabbed/mugged/mopedded :)

    Twat.
  • Brom said:

    I've heard that CCHQ very confident, so that doesn't tie in with Betfair movements. Very confusing.

    Naught but Tory Propaganda!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.

    Can't be students; it's too early!
  • Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.

    Down here meaning London ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    DavidL said:

    I've thought she was in trouble the whole campaign. The last set of polling is terrible for her party. I am predicting an SNP gain here.
    Except that the graph is a bit like the Tories trying it. It doesn't work since a majority of the voters for the parties the SNP is trying to squeeze probably prefer the opponent.
This discussion has been closed.