Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:
1. Farage is surely history. 2. Corbyn likewise hopefully. 3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
There is *always*a recession coming. It's just a question of when, and what you do about it.
I voted about an hour ago in a rock-solid Labour seat. A steady flow of voters - in a light drizzle and mostly old gits like me. Forecast is for high winds and heavier rain later, so that might have hurried them along.
A 58% Leave constituency and some real anger at what was seen as Parliament playing silly buggers. Que sera, sera.
There has always been an unusually large gap between these 2 scenarios despite it being a tiny landing strip. But as the Tory majority has drifted out none of the other markets have really followed that lead...
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
I’ve just laid NOM and rebacked Con Majority on that market.
It’s way more liquid and has more casual punters than any other market, and I reckon city traders et al are getting spooked by seeing high turnouts of younger people, particularly in London.
Everyone is fretting over Betfair's Tory Maj market movements, but nothing much is happening on the spreads where both firms have the Tories at a mid-price of 339 seats (suggesting a Tory Maj of 28 seats ... the same as forecast by MRP) and despite TSE's ridiculous exaggeration as regards turnout levels, the spread is also largely unmoved at a mid-price of 66.9%. Calm down everyone!
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.
If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
Figureheads are not meaningless and even if you cry about it the death of a head of state is a big deal and she is head of state. Honestly, theres plenty of good republican arguments out there, why do some of them insist on using terrible ones?
I'm a republican and I agree that the death of a head of state is a big deal, but I also agree that her demise sad though it would be should not interfere with democracy.
There's also a monarchist argument to say the same thing. The whole point down the centuries is the monarchy doesn't die with a monarch - the old expression "the King is dead, long live the King" - even if it would this time be "the Queen is dead, long live the King".
Everyone is fretting over Betfair's Tory Maj market movements, but nothing much is happening on the spreads where both firms have the Tories at a mid-price of 339 seats and despite TSE's ridiculous exaggeration as regards turnout levels, the spread is also largely unmoved at a mid-price of 66.9%. Calm down everyone!
Labour have gone from buy at 224 to 227 in the last hour alone
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
So all that rumour of it being a bad poll was rubbish. So smallest lead we have is 5...hmmm
The only lead that doesn't suggest a comfortable working majority to large borderline landslide majority. If it's an HP the entire polling industry has failed in this GE
Elevenses then off to vote in the pub where the Tory Candidate got himself Cricked. Lib Dems would do exactly the same but would have been competent about it :-) .
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
According to their rules it was meant to be tomorrow morning.
Can anyone understand why they are still refusing to pay out on "No Deal in 2019" though?
Apart from BetFred bookmakers pay out only once the result has been determined. Despite No Deal Brexit in 2019 being impossible to all practical senses the betting result is not yet an outcome.
BetFred sometimes pay out early as a marketing strategy and take any risk of paying out to winners and losers on the chin.
Seems amazing that Betfair is ignoring all the polling and just going off photos of queues in safe Labour seats. Surely there is a lot more to it than that.
The markets know shit all.
Remember the Referendum, they were sure it was Remain
If you don't mind me asking, why aren't you supporting the LDs this time?
I shall vote for them, my friend, for all that matters in East Ham.
I can't support a democratic party whose primary policy is the negation of that democracy. Revoke is not an unattractive policy for those vehemently opposed to us leaving the EU and it's far more effective than a second referendum or platitudes about getting the job done (whatever that means).
The problem is, however much we dislike it, there was a referendum in 2016 and a majority voted to LEAVE the EU. By not enacting that result and indeed by choosing to ignore it, we are sending out a very bad message as to the kind of democracy we want.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose - as an LD I've known my fair share of defeats and they aren't nice. However, that's no excuse for seeking to overturn the democratic vote.
The Party should have supported the WA and then used every ounce of strength and influence to argue for a trading and political relationship as close to continued membership as possible. Call it BINO if you like and some people won't like that but we would be outside the political structure of the EU and thus would have respected the 2016 result which merely said we should leave and didn't dictate the terms of the departure or the manner of any future relationship.
The LDs are also welcome to pivot to seeking to rejoin the EU once we have left and that doesn't need a referendum - it didn't in 1972 so why now? I think we would need clarity on the terms of rejoining - would we have to accept the Euro or Schengen which might be hard sells or could we rejoin on the terms of 23/6/16?
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
Polls can be wrong, and it's not a slam dunk for the Tories. But 1/2 is way too long. 1/4 would make more sense, I'd say.
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
No.. a poll is where they propose scenarios and ask a voter what they WOULD do. The exit poll they ask what they actually DID do. Very different IMNSHO
I see your point. You are stressing the hypothetical nature of the question. I am stressing the random sample aspect. Since a lot of opinion polls ask about current things - what you think of anchor butter, for example - I don't think a poll needs to be about a future event to be a poll.
Seems amazing that Betfair is ignoring all the polling and just going off photos of queues in safe Labour seats. Surely there is a lot more to it than that.
Maybe the thick city boys don't realise this isnt like a referendum.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
Polls can be wrong, and it's not a slam dunk for the Tories. But 1/2 is way too long. 1/4 would make more sense, I'd say.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
If 2017 had not happened they would be 1/4
However the fundamentals favour the Tories more this time round. A 2.5% lead seems incredibly likely but a 5 point one is plausible.
Criticism of holding referendums because the outcome was not liked is just stupid my opinion. Unless the people doing so would have dismissed the referendum as demented even if the result had gone the other way it makes no sense - asking people their view is not demented even if the people then choose a terrible option.
Is there really the same enthusiasm this time as there was in 2017, when there wasn't a surge in youth turnout. Even the rise in registration has been shown to be nothing but normal population growth.
Turnout stats mean nothing until later on, we have zero recent winter/dark by 4/xmas parties to compare to. We dont know if everyone usually votes early in them because we haven't had one!
Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:
1. Farage is surely history. 2. Corbyn likewise hopefully. 3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
There is *always*a recession coming. It's just a question of when, and what you do about it.
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
So all that rumour of it being a bad poll was rubbish. So smallest lead we have is 5...hmmm
The only lead that doesn't suggest a comfortable working majority to large borderline landslide majority. If it's an HP the entire polling industry has failed in this GE
Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:
1. Farage is surely history. 2. Corbyn likewise hopefully. 3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
If labour replace Corbyn with someone sensible then I promise not to vote for Steve Baker next time.
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
According to their rules it was meant to be tomorrow morning.
Can anyone understand why they are still refusing to pay out on "No Deal in 2019" though?
Apart from BetFred bookmakers pay out only once the result has been determined. Despite No Deal Brexit in 2019 being impossible to all practical senses the betting result is not yet an outcome.
BetFred sometimes pay out early as a marketing strategy and take any risk of paying out to winners and losers on the chin.
Sometimes they don’t pay out on winners at the price they took the bet at
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.
If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
Figureheads are not meaningless and even if you cry about it the death of a head of state is a big deal and she is head of state. Honestly, theres plenty of good republican arguments out there, why do some of them insist on using terrible ones?
I'm a republican and I agree that the death of a head of state is a big deal, but I also agree that her demise sad though it would be should not interfere with democracy.
There's also a monarchist argument to say the same thing. The whole point down the centuries is the monarchy doesn't die with a monarch - the old expression "the King is dead, long live the King" - even if it would this time be "the Queen is dead, long live the King".
I don't see how a delay due to a head of state, elected or not, dying is interferring with democracy unless it's some bs year long mourning period or something. The fundamental premise that any such interference as a 2 week delay is supposedly unreasonable is just plain silly to me.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
Polls can be wrong, and it's not a slam dunk for the Tories. But 1/2 is way too long. 1/4 would make more sense, I'd say.
Memories of 2017.
Indeed. But I frankly think the market is wrong. It's recency bias, just because we can all remember 2017 that doesn't make another last-minute Labour surge/polling error more likely now.
The polls suggest there might be a hung parliament but probably won't. And the polls have a track record of occasional errors in both directions. I've got all I want bet on a Tory majority so won't top up, but I really do need to start holding money back for betting against election day rumours.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
If 2017 had not happened they would be 1/4
However the fundamentals favour the Tories more this time round. A 2.5% lead seems incredibly likely but a 5 point one is plausible.
Very good point, 2017 has skewed peoples views.
It's given drive to Labour supporters and a sense of foreboding to Tories.
Is worth noting though that before 2017 the last time Labour were under polled in the final days of the campaign (or at least the labour lead over polled/Tory lead under polled) was 1983.
2010 was spot on, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 all under polled the Tories
Seems amazing that Betfair is ignoring all the polling and just going off photos of queues in safe Labour seats. Surely there is a lot more to it than that.
It's not rational but then again, when have humans ever been rational? Emotions rule.
Well, just gone and done my civic duty in rural Lincolnshire along with Mrs T.
Won't make much difference in this particular constituency but nice to take part in the democratic process and register one small choice out of millions.
A few people in the polling station - mostly elderly. Apparently it was busy between 7 and 8 am with a lot of people voting before they headed off to work.
This is a horrible election for people who don't like Brexit and also don't think Corbyn is suitable to be PM. You have to choose which is the least-worst option and they're both pretty bad if those are your opinions.
I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.
There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.
If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
Agree - just a fascinating stat.
By the same token, probably a low four-figures number will have turned 18 and now be ‘nominally’ eligible.
People who turn 18 tommorow have bad luck but they are certainly not "nominally eligible" for GE2019. There must be though some with an 18th birthday between 10th and 12th December and are really happy that the proposal to hold the election on Monday 9th was rejected.
Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:
1. Farage is surely history. 2. Corbyn likewise hopefully. 3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
If labour replace Corbyn with someone sensible then I promise not to vote for Steve Baker next time.
So with Ipsos-MORI in we have 12 pollsters (if we count Qriously) and 10 of them have final poll leads outside the 'zone of uncertainty' (i.e. above 8%). With due respect to the markets, why is Tory Majority still 1/2?
Polls can be wrong, and it's not a slam dunk for the Tories. But 1/2 is way too long. 1/4 would make more sense, I'd say.
Markets were 2/9 Cons Maj the day before the 2017 GE.
Turnout stats mean nothing until later on, we have zero recent winter/dark by 4/xmas parties to compare to. We dont know if everyone usually votes early in them because we haven't had one!
Everyone who voted in December 1923 is dead, so can't be asked.
If it’s anything other than a Tory majority then you have to wonder whether the pollsters should just give up and go home. How many polling disasters can their tattered credibility stand?
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
According to their rules it was meant to be tomorrow morning.
Can anyone understand why they are still refusing to pay out on "No Deal in 2019" though?
Apart from BetFred bookmakers pay out only once the result has been determined. Despite No Deal Brexit in 2019 being impossible to all practical senses the betting result is not yet an outcome.
But Betfair's own rules say that the market will be settled if "an extension beyond 2019 for negotiations under Article 50 has been agreed."
And it's not only practically impossible but legally impossible under the Lisbon Treaty.
This is a horrible election for people who don't like Brexit and also don't think Corbyn is suitable to be PM. You have to choose which is the least-worst option and they're both pretty bad if those are your opinions.
Er....that would be me then. Thank you Andy.
Fortunately I am spared great angst by our ridiculous voting system which renders my decision pretty much meaningless anyway.
If it’s anything other than a Tory majority then you have to wonder whether the pollsters should just give up and go home. How many polling disasters can their tattered credibility stand?
It will certainly screw up their business models if the final results are a long way from their final polls.
Is there really the same enthusiasm this time as there was in 2017, when there wasn't a surge in youth turnout. Even the rise in registration has been shown to be nothing but normal population growth.
No, it hasn't, since there is negligible population growth amongst those eligible to vote.
When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?
This is a horrible election for people who don't like Brexit and also don't think Corbyn is suitable to be PM. You have to choose which is the least-worst option and they're both pretty bad if those are your opinions.
Er....that would be me then. Thank you Andy.
Fortunately I am spared great angst by our ridiculous voting system which renders my decision pretty much meaningless anyway.
You see this is the thing. Imagine everyone in your constituency decided to vote for the Alliance for Green Socialism, then the Alliance for Green Socialism would win. So everyone's vote really, really matters.
Is there really the same enthusiasm this time as there was in 2017, when there wasn't a surge in youth turnout. Even the rise in registration has been shown to be nothing but normal population growth.
While I very much doubt this is more than a "hyper-awareness" bias, there are a couple of things that make this potentially different from 2017:
1. There are more young people who were 16-17 in 2016 who are now eligible to vote and resent being disenfranchised/excluded from the EU referendum. 2. The mood music on social media (the primary source of news for younger voters) is both more cataclysmic than 2017, and more "band together and we have a voice"-ish. Both of which are appealing to younger people looking for a tribe.
But, as I say, despite all that they won't actually go and vote, because late-teen/early-twenties brains are rewiring themselves and for most, getting up and going out to do something as abstract as voting is a genuinely big effort, and we should not underestimate that.
When I went to vote a man with a blue rosette asked me if I had my polling card on the way in. I've never been asked that before by a campaigner, is that normal?
Yes, it's so they can mark you off their canvass lists. If you haven't been canvassed, of course, it's entirely pointless.
Is there really the same enthusiasm this time as there was in 2017, when there wasn't a surge in youth turnout. Even the rise in registration has been shown to be nothing but normal population growth.
No, it hasn't, since there is negligible population growth amongst those eligible to vote.
There's been no growth of the eligible population in two years?
Comments
A 58% Leave constituency and some real anger at what was seen as Parliament playing silly buggers. Que sera, sera.
It’s way more liquid and has more casual punters than any other market, and I reckon city traders et al are getting spooked by seeing high turnouts of younger people, particularly in London.
Everyone is fretting over Betfair's Tory Maj market movements, but nothing much is happening on the spreads where both firms have the Tories at a mid-price of 339 seats (suggesting a Tory Maj of 28 seats ... the same as forecast by MRP) and despite TSE's ridiculous exaggeration as regards turnout levels, the spread is also largely unmoved at a mid-price of 66.9%. Calm down everyone!
Cf Cameron’s autobiography.
https://imgur.com/AUydj5k
There's also a monarchist argument to say the same thing. The whole point down the centuries is the monarchy doesn't die with a monarch - the old expression "the King is dead, long live the King" - even if it would this time be "the Queen is dead, long live the King".
He died previously in the Goodies, dressed as a Rabbit.
Met him and his family on a campsite once, whilst he was filming something in the 1970s. Superb individual.
BetFred sometimes pay out early as a marketing strategy and take any risk of paying out to winners and losers on the chin.
Remember the Referendum, they were sure it was Remain
I can't support a democratic party whose primary policy is the negation of that democracy. Revoke is not an unattractive policy for those vehemently opposed to us leaving the EU and it's far more effective than a second referendum or platitudes about getting the job done (whatever that means).
The problem is, however much we dislike it, there was a referendum in 2016 and a majority voted to LEAVE the EU. By not enacting that result and indeed by choosing to ignore it, we are sending out a very bad message as to the kind of democracy we want.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose - as an LD I've known my fair share of defeats and they aren't nice. However, that's no excuse for seeking to overturn the democratic vote.
The Party should have supported the WA and then used every ounce of strength and influence to argue for a trading and political relationship as close to continued membership as possible. Call it BINO if you like and some people won't like that but we would be outside the political structure of the EU and thus would have respected the 2016 result which merely said we should leave and didn't dictate the terms of the departure or the manner of any future relationship.
The LDs are also welcome to pivot to seeking to rejoin the EU once we have left and that doesn't need a referendum - it didn't in 1972 so why now? I think we would need clarity on the terms of rejoining - would we have to accept the Euro or Schengen which might be hard sells or could we rejoin on the terms of 23/6/16?
Polls can be wrong, and it's not a slam dunk for the Tories. But 1/2 is way too long. 1/4 would make more sense, I'd say.
Mori 11 point con lead
Con 44
Lab 33
Lib 12
Grn 3
Bxp 2
If they do vote disproportionately highly this time then ALL the polls will be wrong.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1205064258876321792?s=20
However the fundamentals favour the Tories more this time round. A 2.5% lead seems incredibly likely but a 5 point one is plausible.
Can we see their voting assumptions?
The polls suggest there might be a hung parliament but probably won't. And the polls have a track record of occasional errors in both directions. I've got all I want bet on a Tory majority so won't top up, but I really do need to start holding money back for betting against election day rumours.
It's given drive to Labour supporters and a sense of foreboding to Tories.
Is worth noting though that before 2017 the last time Labour were under polled in the final days of the campaign (or at least the labour lead over polled/Tory lead under polled) was 1983.
2010 was spot on, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015 all under polled the Tories
WillS.
Won't make much difference in this particular constituency but nice to take part in the democratic process and register one small choice out of millions.
A few people in the polling station - mostly elderly. Apparently it was busy between 7 and 8 am with a lot of people voting before they headed off to work.
I can exclusively reveal people are definitely voting!
And it's not only practically impossible but legally impossible under the Lisbon Treaty.
Fortunately I am spared great angst by our ridiculous voting system which renders my decision pretty much meaningless anyway.
Ben Page on MORI poll.
1. There are more young people who were 16-17 in 2016 who are now eligible to vote and resent being disenfranchised/excluded from the EU referendum.
2. The mood music on social media (the primary source of news for younger voters) is both more cataclysmic than 2017, and more "band together and we have a voice"-ish. Both of which are appealing to younger people looking for a tribe.
But, as I say, despite all that they won't actually go and vote, because late-teen/early-twenties brains are rewiring themselves and for most, getting up and going out to do something as abstract as voting is a genuinely big effort, and we should not underestimate that.