The election will be decided in unfashionable parts of the country like West Bromwich, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Rother Valley, Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Wrexham, Bolsover.
On the other hand, most of the reports, gossip and rumour we'll get today will probably be from places like Putney, Wimbledon, Wokingham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, etc, which won't have such a big impact on the overall result.
Impossible to focus on work today! I won't be as stressed for this election whatever the result. Hung parliament will be pleasant surprise but am expecting tory majority. At least if Labour lose badly they will get rid of Corbyn. 2010 was my first election I voted in and it was a nasty shock seeing the lib dems go backwards. 2015 was awful, completely unexpected. 2016 ref was a horrific slow motion car crash without the exit poll giving an initial shock. 2017 was the best one of course. Was not expecting hung parliament at all. Anyway got tomorrow off so can do an all nighter if it looks close!
In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.
Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
Yes but if its not behind the red wall will it make a difference?
Look at Mike’s comments
I did, Bedford is not the red wall and Wokingham will be blue, where are all the students in Wokingham?
The Reading University campus is very near the boundary (so near I am not sure of the exact position) and there will be students from there (and possibly residences) within the constituency.
First GE since 1983 that I've sat out on polling day. Mrs Stodge and I were in (or should that be on) Zante in 2017 but otherwise I've helped the LDs and their predecessor parties at every GE since 1983.
Not this time.
As to what will happen - for the first time, I'm just wondering if my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 will turn a profit but I'm reminded of the postal votes already in the bag for the Conservatives and the persistent messge that a Hung Parliament has to be avoided at all costs and that means (as far as the Conservatives are concerned) voting Conservative (there's a surprise).
I did a thread on here a few days back about thinking the unthinkable.
IF the majority is elusive and more important if he doesn't have the numbers in the Commons to get the WA through, what then? Would Boris try to crash out without a Deal - he probably won't have the numbers for that either so he's blocked again and to amend a well-worn phrase, nothing will have changed?
One confident prediction - East Ham Labour hold. It may slip down the pecking order of safest Labour seats - Hackney South & Shoreditch could take over as Labour's safest seat in London - one to watch.
But you don't know of any evidence of personal anti-semitism on his part?
Because if anyone does, I would genuinely like to hear it.
Read wot I wrote. I don't think he personally dislikes Jews. But he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened and has associated with people who celebrate the death of Jews. Repeatedly.
We're back to that duck thing again, aren't we. But yes, if he bumped into Rabbi Cohen in the street I'm sure they would reminisce about those times on Cable Street or at a Rock against Racism rally back in the day (before the latter type of demonstration was flooded with pro-Palestine supporters).
I did read what you wrote, and actually you seem to be agreeing with me. No evidence of personal antisemitism, but criticism of the state of the party he has presided over.
I think the key thing is that he is leader of that party.
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
No.. a poll is where they propose scenarios and ask a voter what they WOULD do. The exit poll they ask what they actually DID do. Very different IMNSHO
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
An election is also a poll. That is why the place where you vote is called a polling station.
This antisemitic issue was blown out of proportion and is just a stick to beat Corbyn and vilify him.
It really isn't. Perhaps read some of the dossiers going back all these years now, and the cases which had nothing done about them, and people reinstated?
Corbyn can't do anything because his support base is the core of the issue, so all he can do is sit on his bum reading out flashcards.
In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.
Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
Quite so. Balls is a class act.
Hopefully there will be some prominent politicians about to follow the Portillo/Balls path of becoming human after being de-elected.
To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.
He's daring people with million pound properties in Chipping Barnet, Putney and Wimbledon to risk putting Corbyn in Downing Street, and hoping they pull back at the last minute.
Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.
I do not find it surprising there are lengthy queues at polling stations in the early morning for a mid december election with lots of voters going out to parties etc, bad weather and dark evenings
In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.
Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
One of the peculiar effects of this election has been people who never voted for for Ed Balls or George Osborne or Ken Clarke -- & probably hated them when they were active Parliamentarians -- are now suddenly writing swoony love letters to them.
I wouldn't go that far but I take your point.
Time mellows the views but I never came to feel anything other than deep dislike for Thatcher.
Had she lost her seat, I am sure she would have gone on to become presenter of the One Show.
Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.
I may be visiting West Bromwich / Wolverhampton later today. If I see anything interesting I'll let you know.
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
An election is also a poll. That is why the place where you vote is called a polling station.
I think you just won the Morning Pedant Award (or we could go all ISIHAC and call it Mornington Pendant)
The election will be decided in unfashionable parts of the country like West Bromwich, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Rother Valley, Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Wrexham, Bolsover.
On the other hand, most of the reports, gossip and rumour we'll get today will probably be from places like Putney, Wimbledon, Wokingham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, etc, which won't have such a big impact on the overall result.
Spot on.
This will be a tale of two elections.
One of those elections being the hundreds of Con/Lab seats where the result was as good as certain at the start of the year.
So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?
Davey is available at 10:1.
All bar the newcomers (and possibly Lloyd). Even small increases in tactical voting compared with 2017 (which appears already a fact from the polls) and differential performance regionally and between Remain/Leave seats provides them with protection. And I expect Umunna to win as well as them picking up seats like Guildford.
Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.
I may be visiting West Bromwich / Wolverhampton later today. If I see anything interesting I'll let you know.
First GE since 1983 that I've sat out on polling day. Mrs Stodge and I were in (or should that be on) Zante in 2017 but otherwise I've helped the LDs and their predecessor parties at every GE since 1983.
Not this time.
As to what will happen - for the first time, I'm just wondering if my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 will turn a profit but I'm reminded of the postal votes already in the bag for the Conservatives and the persistent messge that a Hung Parliament has to be avoided at all costs and that means (as far as the Conservatives are concerned) voting Conservative (there's a surprise).
I did a thread on here a few days back about thinking the unthinkable.
IF the majority is elusive and more important if he doesn't have the numbers in the Commons to get the WA through, what then? Would Boris try to crash out without a Deal - he probably won't have the numbers for that either so he's blocked again and to amend a well-worn phrase, nothing will have changed?
One confident prediction - East Ham Labour hold. It may slip down the pecking order of safest Labour seats - Hackney South & Shoreditch could take over as Labour's safest seat in London - one to watch.
If you don't mind me asking, why aren't you supporting the LDs this time?
So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?
Davey is available at 10:1.
All bar the newcomers (and possibly Lloyd). Even small increases in tactical voting compared with 2017 (which appears already a fact from the polls) and differential performance regionally and between Remain/Leave seats provides them with protection. And I expect Umunna to win as well as them picking up seats like Guildford.
Worth remembering that the LDs only got 7.4% in 2017.
I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.
I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.
Sounds like people want to get it out of the way early this time.
To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.
Has anyone got any reports from Labour Leave seats, please?
In my village of 650 odd people I was the only one in the polling booth this morning (There are 2 booths for the district ward and the other is about 3 miles away). A lady pulled up ~60ish in a white car to vote as I was leaving. Around 12 people had voted before me at 08:30 this morning.
Busier than normal I think, when I went in to vote before heading off to work this morning. I discovered, in the booth, that we have a UKIP candidate in Surrey Heath. UKIP! I didn't even know they were still a thing.
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.
If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
For once we agree, but the law does not. Under the terms of the Representation of the People Act the 'demise of the Queen' during an election postpones the election for a fortnight. I see no reference to what happens if the 'demise' is on election day itself.
I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.
Potentially useful info there. Orginally a BXP target.
So voting is "brisk" this morning rather than "steady"? Are there any other permitted voting levels?
? sluggish
Villiers looks like another potential candidate for Portillo moment.
Villiers isn't prominent enough for a Portillo moment, imho. Raab or bust. Unless Johnson goes, but that's pretty unlikely. Swinson would barely qualify tbh.
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.
In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.
If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
Figureheads are not meaningless and even if you cry about it the death of a head of state is a big deal and she is head of state. Honestly, theres plenty of good republican arguments out there, why do some of them insist on using terrible ones?
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:
1. Farage is surely history. 2. Corbyn likewise hopefully. 3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan. 4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?
It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
No.. a poll is where they propose scenarios and ask a voter what they WOULD do. The exit poll they ask what they actually DID do. Very different IMNSHO
I see your point. You are stressing the hypothetical nature of the question. I am stressing the random sample aspect. Since a lot of opinion polls ask about current things - what you think of anchor butter, for example - I don't think a poll needs to be about a future event to be a poll.
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
Seems amazing that Betfair is ignoring all the polling and just going off photos of queues in safe Labour seats. Surely there is a lot more to it than that.
Darkest & dampest Chipping Norton, voted around 9ish no queue in front of me, but a long queue formed behind me* as I got my ballot paper. Quite a few already marked as voted. Went out earlier than usual due to the heavy rain expected all day as there was nice lull from 8:30 onwards.
* = I have that effect at cash machines & and in takeaways...
Comments
Corbyn MRP strikes again
This will be a tale of two elections.
Corbyn MRP
First GE since 1983 that I've sat out on polling day. Mrs Stodge and I were in (or should that be on) Zante in 2017 but otherwise I've helped the LDs and their predecessor parties at every GE since 1983.
Not this time.
As to what will happen - for the first time, I'm just wondering if my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 will turn a profit but I'm reminded of the postal votes already in the bag for the Conservatives and the persistent messge that a Hung Parliament has to be avoided at all costs and that means (as far as the Conservatives are concerned) voting Conservative (there's a surprise).
I did a thread on here a few days back about thinking the unthinkable.
IF the majority is elusive and more important if he doesn't have the numbers in the Commons to get the WA through, what then? Would Boris try to crash out without a Deal - he probably won't have the numbers for that either so he's blocked again and to amend a well-worn phrase, nothing will have changed?
One confident prediction - East Ham Labour hold. It may slip down the pecking order of safest Labour seats - Hackney South & Shoreditch could take over as Labour's safest seat in London - one to watch.
I don't mean to mock TSE, more the people who start the rumours and speculation off when there is nothing to really base them on.
Can anyone understand why they are still refusing to pay out on "No Deal in 2019" though?
Probably a couple of Tory to Labour switches but otherwise as you were.
If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
Corbyn can't do anything because his support base is the core of the issue, so all he can do is sit on his bum reading out flashcards.
Davey is available at 10:1.
Caerphilly* constituency. It's been Labour for 100 years.
Make of that what you will.
*tip: Caerphilly will still be Labour tonight.
Defences of
Chipping Barnet, Putney, Chingford
Lost
Richmond Park
As for Cauliflower Cheese.... run for the exits!!!!!!!!!!!!
If she loses her seat, Ed Davey would be interim leader pending a new leadership election.
Villiers looks like another potential candidate for Portillo moment.
https://www.politico.eu/article/12-people-and-things-that-ruined-british-politics/
Enjoy.
Around 12 people had voted before me at 08:30 this morning.
WillS.
Lets hope it doesn't happen.
The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html
If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
Con over 317: 1.2
Con Maj : 1.5
Wut?
1. Farage is surely history.
2. Corbyn likewise hopefully.
3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan.
4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.
(Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
Some of us have long been predicting high turnout. Others have been predicting low turnout. Just the same with non-Tories here too.
I for one have been consistent - I expect high turnout and negligible "tactical voting".
Does TSE agree?
* = I have that effect at cash machines & and in takeaways...