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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

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  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Corbyn was in Bedford yesterday.

    Corbyn MRP strikes again
  • Andy_JS said:

    The election will be decided in unfashionable parts of the country like West Bromwich, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Rother Valley, Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Wrexham, Bolsover.

    On the other hand, most of the reports, gossip and rumour we'll get today will probably be from places like Putney, Wimbledon, Wokingham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, etc, which won't have such a big impact on the overall result.

    Spot on.

    This will be a tale of two elections.

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Impossible to focus on work today! I won't be as stressed for this election whatever the result. Hung parliament will be pleasant surprise but am expecting tory majority. At least if Labour lose badly they will get rid of Corbyn. 2010 was my first election I voted in and it was a nasty shock seeing the lib dems go backwards. 2015 was awful, completely unexpected. 2016 ref was a horrific slow motion car crash without the exit poll giving an initial shock. 2017 was the best one of course. Was not expecting hung parliament at all. Anyway got tomorrow off so can do an all nighter if it looks close!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    I suspect turnout in London will be much higher in the morning, given that in the evening you are likely to get stabbed/mugged/mopedded :)

    Twat.
    Before anyone jumps on me, I was being 100% Trumpian tongue in cheek (not malicious)
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    An appeal for the warmongering status quo...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Fishing said:

    I'm on a long flight today to exotic and warm parts. By the time I land and clear immigration we'll probably have the exit poll.

    Con Maj - happy holidays
    Hung Parl - stress on vacation
    Lab Maj - I stay out here.

    So do bear in mind my holiday plans when you vote today :wink:

    I confess I'm voting for you to have a stressful vacation, sorry. My advice is chill and enjoy regardless - life goes on.
  • Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Byronic said:

    Stocky said:

    Just got back in. Tory maj gone from 1.36 to 1.54??

    What have i missed?

    We don’t know
    Unusually high number of youngsters voting. But probably a London Thing.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Mike: what is your gut feeling for Bedford??
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
  • Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
    Thanks I will take your advice.

    Next, what should I top my home made election night pizza with?
    Pizza is an Abomination unto Nuggan... well, cheese is, but pizza is covered in the stuff.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Yes but if its not behind the red wall will it make a difference?
    Look at Mike’s comments
    I did, Bedford is not the red wall and Wokingham will be blue, where are all the students in Wokingham?
    The Reading University campus is very near the boundary (so near I am not sure of the exact position) and there will be students from there (and possibly residences) within the constituency.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Stocky said:

    Just got back in. Tory maj gone from 1.36 to 1.54??

    What have i missed?

    Much as I would love this to indicate something meaningful, the betting markets on the day and night have been appalling indicators in recent times.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Morning all :)

    First GE since 1983 that I've sat out on polling day. Mrs Stodge and I were in (or should that be on) Zante in 2017 but otherwise I've helped the LDs and their predecessor parties at every GE since 1983.

    Not this time.

    As to what will happen - for the first time, I'm just wondering if my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 will turn a profit but I'm reminded of the postal votes already in the bag for the Conservatives and the persistent messge that a Hung Parliament has to be avoided at all costs and that means (as far as the Conservatives are concerned) voting Conservative (there's a surprise).

    I did a thread on here a few days back about thinking the unthinkable.

    IF the majority is elusive and more important if he doesn't have the numbers in the Commons to get the WA through, what then? Would Boris try to crash out without a Deal - he probably won't have the numbers for that either so he's blocked again and to amend a well-worn phrase, nothing will have changed?

    One confident prediction - East Ham Labour hold. It may slip down the pecking order of safest Labour seats - Hackney South & Shoreditch could take over as Labour's safest seat in London - one to watch.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TudorRose said:

    Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.

    Can't be students; it's too early!
    As amazing as it might sound to you, most under 35s are not students.
  • So I reckon the Tories are getting roasted in London.

    Me too. This may be contributing to the higher Labour polling figures some pollsters predicting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.

    Down here meaning London ?
    Yes.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Huge London general election day turnout with massive queues and polling stations '20 times busier'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-turnout-polling-stations-2017-a4311561.html

    Was turnout at sub-5% in the past, then?

    I don't mean to mock TSE, more the people who start the rumours and speculation off when there is nothing to really base them on.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    But you don't know of any evidence of personal anti-semitism on his part?

    Because if anyone does, I would genuinely like to hear it.

    Read wot I wrote. I don't think he personally dislikes Jews. But he has presided over a party within which anti-semites feel emboldened and has associated with people who celebrate the death of Jews. Repeatedly.

    We're back to that duck thing again, aren't we. But yes, if he bumped into Rabbi Cohen in the street I'm sure they would reminisce about those times on Cable Street or at a Rock against Racism rally back in the day (before the latter type of demonstration was flooded with pro-Palestine supporters).
    I did read what you wrote, and actually you seem to be agreeing with me. No evidence of personal antisemitism, but criticism of the state of the party he has presided over.
    I think the key thing is that he is leader of that party.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Corbyn was in Bedford yesterday.

    Corbyn MRP strikes again

    It's a labour held hyper marginal. Natural place to visit on eve of polling
  • I wonder if those high turnout bets will come off.
  • IanB2 said:

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
    No.. a poll is where they propose scenarios and ask a voter what they WOULD do. The exit poll they ask what they actually DID do. Very different IMNSHO ;)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
    Thanks I will take your advice.

    Next, what should I top my home made election night pizza with?
    Pizza is an Abomination unto Nuggan... well, cheese is, but pizza is covered in the stuff.
    There is no foodstuff that our society has deemed wouldn't be improved by the addition of cheese.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    According to their rules it was meant to be tomorrow morning.

    Can anyone understand why they are still refusing to pay out on "No Deal in 2019" though?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    IanB2 said:

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
    An election is also a poll. That is why the place where you vote is called a polling station.
  • Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    London will not decide the election. There is a lack of fertile ground for the Tories and Labour already have their fiefdoms sewn up.

    Probably a couple of Tory to Labour switches but otherwise as you were.
  • Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    They were waiting to see if Gibbo was right after all?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253
    melcf said:

    This antisemitic issue was blown out of proportion and is just a stick to beat Corbyn and vilify him.

    It really isn't. Perhaps read some of the dossiers going back all these years now, and the cases which had nothing done about them, and people reinstated?

    Corbyn can't do anything because his support base is the core of the issue, so all he can do is sit on his bum reading out flashcards.

  • To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253
    So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?

    Davey is available at 10:1.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    And yet that gap is small compared to Ed Balls and the current Labour leadership. its tragic he is not going to be around to pick up the pieces of this shameful episode.
    Quite so. Balls is a class act.
    Hopefully there will be some prominent politicians about to follow the Portillo/Balls path of becoming human after being de-elected.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    Lots of younger people voting down here. Interesting.

    Can't be students; it's too early!
    As amazing as it might sound to you, most under 35s are not students.
    I didn't say they were.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.

    He's daring people with million pound properties in Chipping Barnet, Putney and Wimbledon to risk putting Corbyn in Downing Street, and hoping they pull back at the last minute.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019
    Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.
  • I do not find it surprising there are lengthy queues at polling stations in the early morning for a mid december election with lots of voters going out to parties etc, bad weather and dark evenings
  • Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    HMQ RIP is the one thing that could have delayed it, and she is pretty old?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    DavidL said:

    In Morley & Outwood (my constituency, unless they changed the name again...) it seemed relatively busy. A few Labour thingummyjigs. Fewer Conservative posters etc. A Conservative teller (think that's the term) was outside the voting room.

    Ed Balls losing that seat was a set back for sensible politics in this country. With him and George on ITV tonight we will see again what we are missing. Frustrating doesn't begin to describe it.
    Indeed - no fan of GO personally but he's head & shoulders above the current cabinet imo.
    GO's failings are why we have the current Cabinet.
    One of the peculiar effects of this election has been people who never voted for for Ed Balls or George Osborne or Ken Clarke -- & probably hated them when they were active Parliamentarians -- are now suddenly writing swoony love letters to them.
    I wouldn't go that far but I take your point.

    Time mellows the views but I never came to feel anything other than deep dislike for Thatcher.
    Had she lost her seat, I am sure she would have gone on to become presenter of the One Show.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited December 2019
    MattW said:

    So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?

    Davey is available at 10:1.

    Only with Bet Fred? I haven`t got account there.
  • To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.

    TSE, is your prediction still a comfortable Tory majority?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
    Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
  • Tories here already saying they expected high turnout which is odd because that’s the opposite of what they claimed a week ago
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.

    I may be visiting West Bromwich / Wolverhampton later today. If I see anything interesting I'll let you know.
  • eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
    An election is also a poll. That is why the place where you vote is called a polling station.
    I think you just won the Morning Pedant Award (or we could go all ISIHAC and call it Mornington Pendant) ;)
  • Fenster said:

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
    It’s not the Tories, it’s Labour. They have five targets.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    If the red wall crumbles as I think it will, London won't decide this election.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Boris was in my village (Ystrad Mynach) yesterday.

    Caerphilly* constituency. It's been Labour for 100 years.

    Make of that what you will.

    *tip: Caerphilly will still be Labour tonight.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Andy_JS said:

    The election will be decided in unfashionable parts of the country like West Bromwich, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Rother Valley, Bishop Auckland, Darlington, Wrexham, Bolsover.

    On the other hand, most of the reports, gossip and rumour we'll get today will probably be from places like Putney, Wimbledon, Wokingham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, etc, which won't have such a big impact on the overall result.

    Spot on.

    This will be a tale of two elections.

    One of those elections being the hundreds of Con/Lab seats where the result was as good as certain at the start of the year.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    MattW said:

    So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?

    Davey is available at 10:1.

    All bar the newcomers (and possibly Lloyd). Even small increases in tactical voting compared with 2017 (which appears already a fact from the polls) and differential performance regionally and between Remain/Leave seats provides them with protection. And I expect Umunna to win as well as them picking up seats like Guildford.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Fenster said:

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
    Kensington, Carshalton, Battersea

    Defences of

    Chipping Barnet, Putney, Chingford

    Lost

    Richmond Park
  • Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    London will not decide the election. There is a lack of fertile ground for the Tories and Labour already have their fiefdoms sewn up.

    Probably a couple of Tory to Labour switches but otherwise as you were.
    Five Labour gains in London is very serious if it happens
  • Andy_JS said:

    Any particular reports from the "unfashionable" parts of the country described ? Very interested to hear some turnout anecdotes from the seats the Brexit Pary orginally targeted.

    I may be visiting West Bromwich / Wolverhampton later today. If I see anything interesting I'll let you know.
    Thanks.
  • TOPPING said:

    Which channel should I choose tonight?

    Traditionally I have been (somewhat ironically) conservative and stuck with BBC but maybe this year I should switch? Any recommendations?

    ITV.

    Has Ed Balls, George Osborne CH, and Ruth Davidson.
    Thanks I will take your advice.

    Next, what should I top my home made election night pizza with?
    Pizza is an Abomination unto Nuggan... well, cheese is, but pizza is covered in the stuff.
    There is no foodstuff that our society has deemed wouldn't be improved by the addition of cheese.
    No. Just..... NO!

    As for Cauliflower Cheese.... run for the exits!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    MattW said:

    So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?

    Davey is available at 10:1.

    If Jo Swinson survives she will remain as leader if that's what she wants.

    If she loses her seat, Ed Davey would be interim leader pending a new leadership election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    First GE since 1983 that I've sat out on polling day. Mrs Stodge and I were in (or should that be on) Zante in 2017 but otherwise I've helped the LDs and their predecessor parties at every GE since 1983.

    Not this time.

    As to what will happen - for the first time, I'm just wondering if my BUY of Conservative seats at 325 will turn a profit but I'm reminded of the postal votes already in the bag for the Conservatives and the persistent messge that a Hung Parliament has to be avoided at all costs and that means (as far as the Conservatives are concerned) voting Conservative (there's a surprise).

    I did a thread on here a few days back about thinking the unthinkable.

    IF the majority is elusive and more important if he doesn't have the numbers in the Commons to get the WA through, what then? Would Boris try to crash out without a Deal - he probably won't have the numbers for that either so he's blocked again and to amend a well-worn phrase, nothing will have changed?

    One confident prediction - East Ham Labour hold. It may slip down the pecking order of safest Labour seats - Hackney South & Shoreditch could take over as Labour's safest seat in London - one to watch.

    If you don't mind me asking, why aren't you supporting the LDs this time?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    London will not decide the election. There is a lack of fertile ground for the Tories and Labour already have their fiefdoms sewn up.

    Probably a couple of Tory to Labour switches but otherwise as you were.
    Five Labour gains in London is very serious if it happens
    Yes it was a rather throwaway remark I felt. If Cons lose at least 5 to LibDems as well then their task gets harder.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
    Kensington, Carshalton, Battersea

    Defences of

    Chipping Barnet, Putney, Chingford

    Lost

    Richmond Park
    Thank you. Makes my point that the GE won't be won or lost in London. In fact, London is not even important.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.

    Has anyone got any reports from Labour Leave seats, please?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Fenster said:

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
    Kensington, Carshalton, Battersea

    Defences of

    Chipping Barnet, Putney, Chingford

    Lost

    Richmond Park
    Dagenham too. A much more viable target than Battersea.
  • Quincel said:

    Huge London general election day turnout with massive queues and polling stations '20 times busier'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-turnout-polling-stations-2017-a4311561.html

    Was turnout at sub-5% in the past, then?

    I don't mean to mock TSE, more the people who start the rumours and speculation off when there is nothing to really base them on.
    EVERY. SINGLE. ELECTION
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Battersea is an almost certain Labour hold this time.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    alb1on said:

    MattW said:

    So which Lib Dems will be left standing at 10-13% of the vote, and who will be the next Leader?

    Davey is available at 10:1.

    All bar the newcomers (and possibly Lloyd). Even small increases in tactical voting compared with 2017 (which appears already a fact from the polls) and differential performance regionally and between Remain/Leave seats provides them with protection. And I expect Umunna to win as well as them picking up seats like Guildford.
    Worth remembering that the LDs only got 7.4% in 2017.
  • I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    So voting is "brisk" this morning rather than "steady"? Are there any other permitted voting levels?

    ? sluggish

    Villiers looks like another potential candidate for Portillo moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.

    Sounds like people want to get it out of the way early this time.
  • Here's a great read from the USA for everyone to enjoy whilst waiting for the Big Bong:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-people-and-things-that-ruined-british-politics/

    Enjoy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    nunu2 said:

    To be fair the Cummings strategy was to burn off Tory seats in London but win Labour Leave seats, we might be seeing that in action.

    Has anyone got any reports from Labour Leave seats, please?
    In my village of 650 odd people I was the only one in the polling booth this morning (There are 2 booths for the district ward and the other is about 3 miles away). A lady pulled up ~60ish in a white car to vote as I was leaving.
    Around 12 people had voted before me at 08:30 this morning.
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    Busier than normal I think, when I went in to vote before heading off to work this morning. I discovered, in the booth, that we have a UKIP candidate in Surrey Heath. UKIP! I didn't even know they were still a thing.

    WillS.
  • Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
    Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
    For once we agree, but the law does not. Under the terms of the Representation of the People Act the 'demise of the Queen' during an election postpones the election for a fortnight. I see no reference to what happens if the 'demise' is on election day itself.

    Lets hope it doesn't happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Andy_JS said:

    Battersea is an almost certain Labour hold this time.

    Putney a Lab gain too imo.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    I voted at about 8:30 this morning here in Lincoln. The polling station was dead... nobody else came or went while I was there but it looked, from the list, as though they had been busy earlier.

    Potentially useful info there. Orginally a BXP target.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Fenster said:

    Re the fashionable seats. If the red wall doesn’t crumble as I think it won’t, London will decide this election.

    Corbyn MRP

    Really!?! How many targets do the Tories have in greater London? Three?
    In Greater London they have many more than three MPs. In 1997 they held onto three seats, all in the South-East
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    IanB2 said:

    So voting is "brisk" this morning rather than "steady"? Are there any other permitted voting levels?

    ? sluggish

    Villiers looks like another potential candidate for Portillo moment.
    Villiers isn't prominent enough for a Portillo moment, imho. Raab or bust. Unless Johnson goes, but that's pretty unlikely. Swinson would barely qualify tbh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Just read on the Telegraph that Johnson didn't actually vote for himself, instead opting to register in Westminster!
  • Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html
  • Fenster said:

    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.

    There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.

    If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
    Would be ridiculous. The Queen is a meaningless figurehead. She should have no influence on the timing of democracy.
    Figureheads are not meaningless and even if you cry about it the death of a head of state is a big deal and she is head of state. Honestly, theres plenty of good republican arguments out there, why do some of them insist on using terrible ones?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html

    fantastic
  • Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html

    Hmm, so that's not the reason for the betting moves.
  • RobD said:

    Just read on the Telegraph that Johnson didn't actually vote for himself, instead opting to register in Westminster!

    Would be funny if he loses by one vote.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    RobD said:

    Just read on the Telegraph that Johnson didn't actually vote for himself, instead opting to register in Westminster!

    If he loses by one in Uxbridge I`ll piss myself laughing
  • RobD said:

    Just read on the Telegraph that Johnson didn't actually vote for himself, instead opting to register in Westminster!

    Would be funny if the Tories lost Uxbridge by 1 vote.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    BF:

    Con over 317: 1.2
    Con Maj : 1.5

    Wut?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html

    Hmm, so that's not the reason for the betting moves.
    So it's just a reaction to fluff about turnout?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alright PB, that joke is getting rather old.

    :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Trying to think of reasons to keep positive in the face of a probable Tory majority:

    1. Farage is surely history.
    2. Corbyn likewise hopefully.
    3. Tories will have to own the fact that Brexit is more complicated than simply leaving in 31 Jan.
    4. There’s a recession coming - the Tories might as well cop the blame for it.

    (Hard to turn 'there's a recession coming' into a positive but you can only work with the material available.)
  • Tories here already saying they expected high turnout which is odd because that’s the opposite of what they claimed a week ago

    That's not fair. "Tories here" are not one ubiquitous bloc with a hive mind.

    Some of us have long been predicting high turnout. Others have been predicting low turnout. Just the same with non-Tories here too.

    I for one have been consistent - I expect high turnout and negligible "tactical voting".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html

    LOL. So much for a small lead.
  • RobD said:

    Alright PB, that joke is getting rather old.

    :D

    Great minds and all that.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    I saw on Twitter last night that 3000 postal voters will have died by the time the results are announced.

    There will quite possibly be ballot box voters who are dead by the time the results are announced.

    If you get into a fatal road traffic accident on the way back from voting it doesn't void your ballot.
    Agree - just a fascinating stat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    So on that 10pm Bong!! Exit poll. Is there any reason to think it will be far from the final result? Is this election harder to call on the exit poll than the previous few?

    It should be accurate because it is not really a poll. It is an early result extrapolated up to national levels - a projection rather than a survey.
    Of course it's a poll. Yes, the potential error from differential turnout is removed. But they are still picking a tiny handful of polling stations from the thousands available, and relying on people to be honest. Plenty of scope for error.
    No.. a poll is where they propose scenarios and ask a voter what they WOULD do. The exit poll they ask what they actually DID do. Very different IMNSHO ;)
    I see your point. You are stressing the hypothetical nature of the question. I am stressing the random sample aspect. Since a lot of opinion polls ask about current things - what you think of anchor butter, for example - I don't think a poll needs to be about a future event to be a poll.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Brom said:

    Ipsos MORI

    The headline estimates of voting are Conservative 44 per cent (unchanged from a week ago), Labour 33 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats 12 per cent (down one point).

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-election-polls-conservative-party-labour-final-poll-a4311626.html

    fantastic
    So all that rumour of it being a bad poll was rubbish. So smallest lead we have is 5...hmmm
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    Just read on the Telegraph that Johnson didn't actually vote for himself, instead opting to register in Westminster!

    Well to be fair why would he vote for a serial liar?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Seems amazing that Betfair is ignoring all the polling and just going off photos of queues in safe Labour seats. Surely there is a lot more to it than that.
  • Here's a great read from the USA for everyone to enjoy whilst waiting for the Big Bong:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-people-and-things-that-ruined-british-politics/

    Enjoy.

    "George Osborne (Cameron’s former No. 2 and would-be successor, now a newspaper editor, who encouraged the demented plan for a referendum)"

    Does TSE agree?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Still 1.53 on BF - get on at that following Mori poll?
  • Darkest & dampest Chipping Norton, voted around 9ish no queue in front of me, but a long queue formed behind me* as I got my ballot paper. Quite a few already marked as voted. Went out earlier than usual due to the heavy rain expected all day as there was nice lull from 8:30 onwards.

    * = I have that effect at cash machines & and in takeaways...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2019

    Betfair has just paid out on the timing of the general election market. Heaven knows why they had to wait until today.

    In case HMQ passed away and then in case King Charles III passed away within the following fortnight.

    If HMQ passes away today does the election still get postponed or is it too late now?
    The risky moment is when she gets told Bozo is going to be her PM for the next five years.
This discussion has been closed.