politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2019 : The PB Guide to Election Night

First!

Third like the SNP.

Is there an author byline for this (excellent) piece? I’m presuming TSE...

No malarkey

Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

FPT Curse of the new thread

I wonder how the campaign would have gone if the Tories had been campaigning strongly for remain and Labour had campaigned to leave. A lot of the rhetoric (at least on here) has been about how bad the Tories are and the need for change. I would have loved to see the tone of the comments from the left and right if the Brexit positions were reversed 😂

This is how the results came in last time:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19pjmPA5bAYievt7plp9SOKce4EbXBeamLmww2Ba2GCA/edit#gid=0

Thank you for the summary for the overnight timings.

FF43 said:

Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

That looks like the subsample. For the UK wide poll.

The Scotland only poll is different.

I would love and really need to sit this one out and get a good nights sleep, but that is unlikely to happen.

Mysticrose said:

By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

It reminds me of the scene in Mars Attacks where the martians are going around shooting people whilst saying they come in peace.

Useful timeline.

I'm planning to stay up a bit this time, although woe and depression (we'll have to see what results indicate that...) may mean I don't stay up for long.

Small error, me thinks. In 1959 "The Hartlepools", which covered pretty well the same area as the Hartlepool seat today, was won by the Conservative John Kerans, who had commanded HMS Amethyst in the Yangtse Incident.

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1205032056536870912?s=20

SCons seem about on the same level as last time.

So it will all come down to SNP turnout and Unionist tactical voting.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1204892205414043650?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1205032639754883072?s=20

Jonathan said:

Mysticrose said:

By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

It reminds me of the scene in Mars Attacks where the martians are going around shooting people whilst saying they come in peace.

Hahaha So true. I love that film. Gloriously anarchic.

Some of the Scottish Tory seats have barely any Labour vote to squeeze. I think Aberdeen South might be more vulnerable than Banff as a result

In 2017 the Tories were below everyone's range. In 2015 above. 2010 below iirc

I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

nunu2 said:

I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Very bad for Labour in Scotland, but also bad for the Conservatives despite their vote holding up surprising well. Those Labour votes will go to the SNP, which should knock out a number of Conservative seats. The SNP will be happy if this is correct:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204926091565158401

That is not the full Survation Scotland only poll, this is


https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1205011532511371264?s=20

Was the Indy question asked?

danielmawbs said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

Yep, I can remember getting strange looks from the drivers next to me as I cheered and did fist pumps whilst stuck in traffic.

and now you would like him back?

Big queues to vote in Buckingham

Small queue in front of me at the polling station this morning. Nothing really remarkable to report, looked steady and I’d suggest a good turnout but nothing more.

Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

while a hung parliament is my preferred outcome today, I do almost wonder if I would prefer a large tory majority to à small one, on the off chance that it means Boris Johnson feels able to govern more as he did while mayor as a one nation type and throw the ERG overboard like he did the DUP.

If its a majority of 10 or so we could be in trouble, the ERG loons will have much more of a say and Johnson will have to curry favour with them. In addition there will be no more pro eu or left tory Rebels in the party, all the old ones have either left or backed down, and the new tory MPs will all show loyalty to Johnson as he got them elected.

My guess today is

42 tories
35 labour
11 Lib Dems

Leading to a small tory majority. Purely a huch, I've been very remote from this campaign so no anecdata to report beyond the fact that the idea of tactical voting really seems to be widely spoken of now, even more than 2017, so Lib dems should do better in seats than votes even while being squeezed by Labour.

MilesPartridge said:

Big queues to vote in Buckingham

Joyous release of a proper contest?

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

BigJoeCanoe said:

Mysticrose said:

By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

If only anyone knew what One Nation means.

I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.

A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist

Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.

Fpt for @Alanbrooke

Alanbrooke said:

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

I'm off to do a few hours' telling in Southgate.

My prediction is Con 360, Lib Dem 18, SNP 40, Northern Ireland 18, Others 7 (including the East Devon Independent) Labour 207 or thereabouts.

Your forecast of 18 Northern Irish seats is pretty bold. How confident are you we won't see Ulster breaking out and getting north of 20?

That's a good point RCS

This country needs more NI MPs.

if we had 650 of them they could all refuse to sit together like they do back home and then there would be nobody in government and the country would be a better place.

One of the more shocking stats of this election is that there are 100 000 people waiting for hospital treatment in NI for more than a year. Pretty astonishing in a place with only 1 800 000 people. It puts the failures of the English and Welsh NHS into perspective.

that's probably saving lives

when my dad went in to his local hospital in NI some years back the bastards nearly killed him ( lack of basic care, norovirus, etc ) . He only recovered when he got back out !

A very bizarre experience was, when visiting soldiers in MPH, after passing through the normal reception, there was a little booth, usually manned by a fresh-faced young female nurse, where, because they weren't allowed in the hospital, we had to hand over all our weapons and she would smile sweetly as she collected them up and gave us a ticket as though as she was taking coats at the theatre.

WhisperingOracle final prediction - from hung parliament and Lab minority government to maximum Tory majority of 30.

Morris_Dancer said:

Useful timeline.

I'm planning to stay up a bit this time, although woe and depression (we'll have to see what results indicate that...) may mean I don't stay up for long.

What type of result would have you rejoicing Mr Dancer? I am genuinely interested as though we may have different views on some things your views are often well nuanced.

WhisperingOracle said:

nico67 said:

Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

Which areas - or is this ironic ?

No it’s on the Guardian site with photos , the areas vary , Battersea. Balham , also down on the Sussex coast a guy reporting a queue .

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205035810074046464?s=20

Anecdata - voted early for me this morning, and never been that early (7.10 am) but lots of voters already. It may just be the hard working folk (like me natch) but got the impression of people wanting this done and then move on (to Christmas!)

Campaign (effectiveness) Scorecard

Conservative (7/10)
SNP (6/10)
Labour (5/10)
LibDem (0/10)
Brexit (-10/10)

The Tories has the most effective campaign for sheer aggression and the effectiveness of their slogan, which is a classic IMO almost as good as "take back control". It's the one memorable thing. Boris made big mistakes, he should have been more prime ministerial in his response to terror and should been interviewed by Neil. The manifesto is a blank cheque, which is what Boris wants. A calculated risk. If they don't win a majority it will be down to trust in Boris and Boris' actions and the lack of manifesto commitments made that worse.

The SNP were characteristically solid, if not dull. A safe pair of hands in an uncertain world. Exactly what was required this year.

Labour's attack was blunted by an overly complex (albeit entirely correct) Brexit policy. They should have been able to call "get Brexit done" for the bullshit it truly is. Their NHS line is overused and burned out, only when they stopped talking about it and events took over did NHS concerns have impact. They had no effective response to the AS charges. The manifesto unlike 2017 didn't offer much to the right of the party and had a DFS sale vibe that did not resonate as well as 2017. The open goals they missed where numerous.

The LibDems went for a presidential campaign with Swinson and a Revoke policy, both of which were singularly unpopular. Worse still they looked extreme. Instead they should have gone with a safe pair of hands, and classic Lib Dem "none of the above" campaign. A missed opportunity.

The Brexit party shot themselves in the foot from the start and kept firing. A total mess.

squareroot2 said:

danielmawbs said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Being “up for Balls” was not really a challenge; the announcement happened as I was on my way to work.

Yep, I can remember getting strange looks from the drivers next to me as I cheered and did fist pumps whilst stuck in traffic.

and now you would like him back?

I think eds reputation has been enhanced since he left office. As a leaver, I realise His scheming with Brown to prevent us joining the Euro in order to exert control over Blair allowed us the chance to vote to leave the EU, if we'd have joined the Euro the vote would have gone the other way and we would be stuck for ever.

numbertwelve said:

nunu2 said:

I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.

Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.

WhisperingOracle said:

algarkirk said:

nico67 said:

Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

area ?

Small town far north of England.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1205032056536870912?s=20

Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.

Just saying.

BigJoeCanoe said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

BigJoeCanoe said:

Mysticrose said:

By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

If only anyone knew what One Nation means.

I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.

A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist

Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.

Of course - all majority held views are extremist.

Particularly to those opposed in the minority.

No majority held views are not all extremist, that is silly. They can be though in the context of the left right continuum. There are extreme left articles of faith that might, at certain times, be highly popular, but are ,nonetheless, extremist. A measure of extremism may be measured by whether divisive language is used to support the case. The desire to point out scapegoats such as immigrants, Zionists or Germans is indicative of extremism. Farage and Corbyn neatly fit into this category as exponents of the art. Johnson is someone who is happy to jump on the bandwagon if it suits his own ambition.

Nigel_Foremain said:

BigJoeCanoe said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Mysticrose said:

BigJoeCanoe said:

Mysticrose said:

By the way, something odd yesterday. Boris was suddenly banging the 'One Nation' drum. It jarred. Really jarred.

I mean, it's great. I'd love it if he were really a One Nation Conservative rather than a One Man Conservative but it jarred with their campaign - seemed off message.

It made me wonder if they think they haven't quite got the numbers ...

If only anyone knew what One Nation means.

I think in this context it means centrist, compassionate caring Conservatism, historically pro-EU, looking out for others, not massive on privatisation, benevolent, noblesse oblige, feudal. Remember the 'Big Society'? Lol.

There were some good figures in the party. Great figures. Prior, Hesseltine, Clarke etc.

A Heathite Tory party not a Thatcherite one in other words and one that would likely be polling lower than Boris is given it would be squeezed by the Brexit Party and Boris is already polling well over 40%.

Other than on the EU Boris is also quite centrist and indeed given 52% of voters voted Leave you could even argue Brexit is centrist

Brexit is centrist? I am sorry, but that is the crassest thing you have ever said. It is either an attempt to be provocative or displays a massive ignorance. I am not making equivalence, but would you suggest that because certain extremist ideologies had a small majority of their populations supporting them they are therefore centrist? Populist yes, centrist no. Brexit is a far right policy based on division and mistrust or hatred of all things foreign, and migrants in particular. Centrist it can never be, even if 90% of the population are gullible enough to support it.

Of course - all majority held views are extremist.

Particularly to those opposed in the minority.

No majority held views are not all extremist, that is silly. They can be though in the context of the left right continuum. There are extreme left articles of faith that might, at certain times, be highly popular, but are ,nonetheless, extremist. A measure of extremism may be measured by whether divisive language is used to support the case. The desire to point out scapegoats such as immigrants, Zionists or Germans is indicative of extremism. Farage and Corbyn neatly fit into this category as exponents of the art. Johnson is someone who is happy to jump on the bandwagon if it suits his own ambition.

Farage is an extremist but Brexit isn't.

Mysticrose said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1205032056536870912?s=20

Their final prediction before 2017 was a Conservative majority of 72.

Just saying.

Survation's final poll before 2017 had a 1% Tory lead, it now has an 11% Tory lead in its final 2019 poll.

Just saying.

Anyway off to telling in Epping and knocking up in Chingford and Woodford Green, see you at 10pm for the exit poll before I head to the Epping Forest count

WhisperingOracle said:

WhisperingOracle final prediction - from hung parliament and Lab minority government to maximum Tory majority of 30.

Lab minority? That's quite ambitious as it would need the tories to be below 312 seats (the DUP will never support Corbyn), likely a bit less as I don't think the libdems would support it.

I think a hung parliament is a possible albeit unlikely outcome, but one where Corbyn can become PM would require a massive polling error - more so than in 2015 and 2017.

algarkirk said:

WhisperingOracle said:

algarkirk said:

nico67 said:

Very unusual to see queues reported at some polling stations .

Voting anecdote: Arrived at my polling station at 7.05 am, parking difficult because of number of people arrived, arriving and departing, by the time I left at 7.15 am- they were operating rather slowly and took ages to find me on the register despite my polling card - people were queuing to the door. I always vote at this time, and this was uniquely busy.

area ?

Small town far north of England.

It could be people trying to avoid the heavy rain later in the day.

turbotubbs said:

Anecdata - voted early for me this morning, and never been that early (7.10 am) but lots of voters already. It may just be the hard working folk (like me natch) but got the impression of people wanting this done and then move on (to Christmas!)

A flurry first thing is quite normal; in most areas there are people with long days who need to get voting out of the way.

Instagram is pushing voting hard.

alex_ said:

numbertwelve said:

nunu2 said:

I have a bad feeling. Boris basically repeated all if May's mistakes apart from the shit manifesto and crap response to the terror attacks.

Yes and she got close to a majority. That’s why I think we’re probably going to see Boris just over the line, but no landslide.

Fear of Corbyn (winning) is greater this time and the message that only the Conservatives will deliver Brexit more credible. But Johnson is more disliked/derided.

Sounds a reasonable summary. People often mix a certain respect for Corbyn's steady courtesy with a dislike of what they perceive as extreme policies or simply unachievable ones.

I've been predicting a Tory majority of 15-30 throughout. In the light of current polls, I think 60 is more likely, but we'll see what we can do today.