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Comments
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Could it be LAB/SNP overall maj on MRP?0
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Aren't tactical voters sawing off the branch on which they sit?
Why on earth should the Labour party come round to changing the electoral system if LibDems are willing to vote Labour tactically?
LibDems should not vote tactically, otherwise the system will never change.
The LibDem should say, "We will withdraw our candidates from 100 seats and urge our voters to vote tactically if you, the Labour party, do likewise for 50 seats".
Tactical voting without a quid pro quo is giving away something for nothing.
Otherwise, the LibDems will continue to see their Labour MP pleading for their tactical vote, election after election.
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Whatever you do, don't drink that fourth pint of absinthe!Byronic said:A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women1 -
If so there is a lot of bullcrap being talked about Tories breaching the red wall.WhisperingOracle said:
Well, if that's true it's very similar to what I was predicting until yesterday. I think it's down to around 10-24 now, though.timmo said:0 -
What is the exclamation mark in the url for - speculation maybe !!!timmo said:0 -
Last time they needed 45 years to recover, if you count 1929 to 1974.Byronic said:If the LDs go down to single figures in seats and vote share, are they dead forever?
Gotta be close
Or 73 years if you count 1910-1983.
Basically it's close for the last person to remember how bad they where when in power, to have died off.
So it could be sometime by the end of the 21st century.0 -
I cannot further express my opinion of the gentleman without resorting to some very bad language.FrancisUrquhart said:So the predicted majority is 30. That guy tweeting all this is never going to be told in the future is he.
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I merely state the facts of the matterBeibheirli_C said:Byronic said:A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
A man opines on what women think.....-1 -
Hello nichomar. I am on Ryanair.com now. I am moving in on Friday, can you please confirm I can move into your spare room?nichomar said:
No you just have to look at their local government base and the fact that the so called big parties are both crap.Byronic said:If the LDs go down to single figures in seats and vote share, are they dead forever?
Gotta be close
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What was the previous maj with Focaldata?0
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My god, what a knobviewcode said:
Look, will somebody just punch him? Arrogant prick.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
And as we know, you never fib.Byronic said:
I merely state the facts of the matterBeibheirli_C said:Byronic said:A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
A man opines on what women think.....0 -
True . Finally someone manages to unite the warring factions ! Seriously though this forum is really not that acrimonious , it’s quite funny at times with some decent lighthearted banter .Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if he has done something we have been unable to donico67 said:
I’m even less inclined to believe his previous tweets given his latest one . He needs to STFU ! Apologies for my bad language but really he’s seriously beginning to grate now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What is he pkaying at. Pathetic attention seekerMexicanpete said:
This guy is an idiot!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Unite us1 -
Like Malcolm Tucker says: if we fire you now it looks like *we* fucked up.IanB2 said:
Swinson is brand new and will be given time to grow into the job. The mistakes are strategic - getting carried away after the Euros and planning a campaign expecting to be about to sweep the country. Adopting a revoke policy that wouldn’t attract a single extra voter but would repel many soft remainers. Appointing the same guy to manage the campaign that made such a shambles of 2017. Making idiots of themselves by abusing OGH’s permission to use his reputation to send absurd voter letters to no-hope constituencies up and down the land. Claiming to be focused on denying Bozo his majority yet even today directing activists toward seats where we are up against Labour remainers. Etc.numbertwelve said:It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?0 -
🔔🔚paulyork64 said:
Total 🍆🧀Mexicanpete said:
This guy is an idiot!Scrapheap_as_was said:1 -
Some chatter on social media that the Scot Tories fancy it in Lanark and Hamilton East
Hyper marginal SNP seat, dyor0 -
No.Ave_it said:Could it be LAB/SNP overall maj on MRP?
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30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.0 -
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0 -
If Labour hold Barrow then it's a Hung Parliament.RobD said:0 -
Can people check before they post stuff on the MRP. The figures Matt Singh is talking about is not the YouGov MRP.0
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Loads of SLAB vote to squeeze with only 350 votes between 1st and third last time. If there is to be a Con gain in Scotland it has to be a prospect from what it looks like on paper.wooliedyed said:Some chatter on social media that the Scot Tories fancy it in Lanark and Hamilton East
Hyper marginal SNP seat, dyor0 -
Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.0 -
FocalData previously predicted a majority of 78 in their pre-campaign MRP.MikeL said:What was the previous maj with Focaldata?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions0 -
Clearly you are attempting to talk the lib dems down part of the silent conspiracy that has been in play from both lab Tory and con from day one not sure why you’re bothering unless you resent having your council seat taken from you.PrinceofTaranto said:
That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.rcs1000 said:
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.PrinceofTaranto said:I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.0 -
Look if you start with 60 apples..........funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.1 -
340 seats means an effective majority of 38. He's an arse to be breaching the embargo, though.RobD said:0 -
Tory overall maj at 1.39 is back where it was before the Survation outlier on Sunday0
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I won’t believe the YouGov MRP till I see it in the flesh.0
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To be fair Yougov's is not the only MRP in town, nor is it necessarily the oracle it's being built up to be.TheScreamingEagles said:Can people check before they post stuff on the MRP. The figures Matt Singh is talking about is not the YouGov MRP.
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If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.0 -
I've been to Romania and I lived in Egypt for a few months.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
The NHS might be a bit wobbly, but it is infinitely superior to anything in either of those countries, especially Egypt, one of the poorest countries in the Arab world0 -
brokenwheel said:
To be fair it's not the only game in town, nor is it necessarily the oracle it's being built up to be.TheScreamingEagles said:Can people check before they post stuff on the MRP. The figures Matt Singh is talking about is not the YouGov MRP.
Speaking of other MRPs, I missed that Datapraxis did their version 3 days ago (maj 38).0 -
Hello Byronic. Did you change your investment profile?Byronic said:Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
Looks like odds on LAB/SNP majority happy days for Corbynistas Smithson/TSE/Meeks/Cyclefree.
I have a small investment property in Luxulyan. Would you like to move in?
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Hmm not sure you can say that. It does look like if there is a majority it’s going to be sub 50 though.speedy2 said:
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.0 -
How relieved are Tories going to be to see their projected majority falling based on polling done some days in advance of polling day, and with the models self-confessed weakness in picking up seat-specific campaigning?0
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Yeah that bloke who’s got loads of kids with different women is a right flop with the ladiesBeibheirli_C said:Byronic said:A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
A man opines on what women think.....0 -
Focaldata MRP constituency projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true1 -
If you keep up with these hysterical posts so will I !Byronic said:Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.0 -
x-rays they already have in the drawer before you turn up don’t count.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0 -
If the majority is 30 then it's not a hung Parliament - by definition.speedy2 said:
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.1 -
The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
I called that in Oct. Could still be CON 20 seats in Scotland. Possibly 25. Everyone hates Sturgeonwooliedyed said:Some chatter on social media that the Scot Tories fancy it in Lanark and Hamilton East
Hyper marginal SNP seat, dyor0 -
It's the direction of travel, it would only need a swing of 1.5% from that position.TudorRose said:
If the majority is 30 then it's not a hung Parliament - by definition.speedy2 said:
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.0 -
Eye of the beholder, IMHO. I really struggle to read pictures. A thousand words is better every time.brokenwheel said:How large is the error bar on an emoji?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
The taxi drivers are naughty little fibbers.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0 -
I think he means that if the Tories are on course for a majority of 30 if the election was today then, given Labour are closing the gap, it will probably be a hung parliament when the election is on Thursday.TudorRose said:
If the majority is 30 then it's not a hung Parliament - by definition.speedy2 said:
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.
For the record, I don't think that. It's just my reading of what he means.0 -
Labour easily holding seats like Canterbury and Workington, among the first vital sea being declared.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Focaldata MRP constituency projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true0 -
I have been selling LD seat numbers for the last fortnight as you will see from my posts here but have now cashed out at a large profit following the last You Gov MRP and just left with some small constituency bets.Therefore I don't care from a betting point of view. I knew this election was not going to be good for the LDs and was just trying to give you guys the heads up on this site. No one really listened though.nichomar said:
Clearly you are attempting to talk the lib dems down part of the silent conspiracy that has been in play from both lab Tory and con from day one not sure why you’re bothering unless you resent having your council seat taken from you.PrinceofTaranto said:
That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.rcs1000 said:
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.PrinceofTaranto said:I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.0 -
Yeah, there's a bunch of very odd results. Another one is the tories winning Stoke Central, but labour retaining the neighboring Newcastle-under-Lyme with an increased majority (both are heavily leave).speedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
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And not gaining Barrowspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
Even if the YouGov MRP is true (as leaked) there’s a very slim MoE between 340 and 359 seats.
As always, so much comes down to local issues, tactical voting on the day, and turnout.
And, as @isam quite rightly said, it may be the YouGov MRP in GE2017 just got lucky once.0 -
That has Chuka winningAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Focaldata MRP constituency projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true0 -
I have little time for focaldata. I want Yougov!0
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Bolsover Tory Gainspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
The direction of travel was the opposite until Monday - but who the fuck really knows? It's far too close for comfort for us Tories, but I'm strangely calmer now than I have been for the last 2 days.speedy2 said:
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.funkhauser said:
30?speedy2 said:
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.
A majority of ONE stops Corbyn becoming PM, sees Brexit over the line (for now), and that's enough for most of us.0 -
Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???bigjohnowls said:
Bolsover Tory Gainspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.
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I will happily swap you stories of my experience of the NHS over the last few years and it has nothing to do with funding. Dad was stuck in a hospital for 3 weeks as he couldn`t go back to his care home as a hospital discharged someone to the home with Norovirus shutting the home for 3 weeks. Mum was stuck in a bed over a weekend as a care home wouldn`t take patients while there was no GP surgery at the weekend. Mum twice was stuck because hospital transport failed to turn up. If an elderly patient needs Social care if its not been arranged by a Friday lunchtime forget it will be Monday before they go and they wonder why there is a shortage of beds.0
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So, not the gold standard, thenStocky said:
That has Chuka winningAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Focaldata MRP constituency projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
I'll just wait for the YouGov...0 -
Or they have to pay to have an x-ray?saddened said:
The taxi drivers are naughty little fibbers.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0 -
Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!0
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We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.Artist said:
A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.marke0903 said:NEW MRP model from Focaldata:
CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1
CON majority 24
It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.1 -
I can’t see that . There are some very strange constituency results there .Stocky said:
That has Chuka winningAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Focaldata MRP constituency projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true0 -
He's doomed.kle4 said:Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!
https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL/status/12044483106663874570 -
Focaldata
Hallam Lab hold!0 -
Barrow is a nailed on Tory Gain with sex pest Woodcock on their side surelyBig_G_NorthWales said:
And not gaining Barrowspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
He looks shifty and somewhat nervousTheScreamingEagles said:
He's doomed.kle4 said:Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!
https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL/status/12044483106663874570 -
I would not wish to share a trench with you.Byronic said:Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.0 -
MRP update in 2017 was of course lower than the original and in reality the Tories outperformed them bothCasino_Royale said:Even if the YouGov MRP is true (as leaked) there’s a very slim MoE between 340 and 359 seats.
As always, so much comes down to local issues, tactical voting on the day, and turnout.
And, as @isam quite rightly said, it may be the YouGov MRP in GE2017 just got lucky once.0 -
Hmm - Grieve may only be about 10% behind now in Beaconfield, according to this. That may be the reason for the peculiar hustings cancellation by the Tories mentioned in the Indy.
He also thinks Raab's in trouble.
https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/12044454380715171840 -
We'll win Newcastle UL even if we only get 310TheScreamingEagles said:
He's doomed.kle4 said:Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!
https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL/status/1204448310666387457
#goaaron
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The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.0 -
Lab down 10 points in Manchester Gorton to a mere 66. Terrible.0
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Which MRP is that from?kle4 said:Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!
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The Conservatives at 60% in the Dudley seats but Bassetlaw neck and neck ?Nobidexx said:
Yeah, there's a bunch of very odd results. Another one is the tories winning Stoke Central, but labour retaining the neighboring Newcastle-under-Lyme with an increased majority (both are heavily leave).speedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
It's useless in individual seats.0 -
Probably true, if they mean "if you pay cash USD and aren't fussy about the qualifications of the radiographer or safety of the equipment."saddened said:
The taxi drivers are naughty little fibbers.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0 -
I don't think anyone thinks he is storming to victory. It's just whether the Tories can trip enough enough for him to cobble together a majority. I don't think he can, but if headline predictions are in the 10-30 majority range, that looks doable for him if he outperforms the polls even a little.Sean_F said:
I would not wish to share a trench with you.Byronic said:Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.0 -
Where does all this confidence come from though?rcs1000 said:The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.
The California Sun?!0 -
The fundamentals haven't changed. If the Tories hold the 317 seats they captured last time then they only need nine gains for an overall majority.bigjohnowls said:Tory overall maj at 1.39 is back where it was before the Survation outlier on Sunday
If the actual Conservative lead in vote share is only 3.5-4% then that should be enough to do the job. Every poll of the campaign has had a lead of at least 6% and the average is more like 10%.
Unless there has been a massive polling failure, then a Hung Parliament would therefore seem to require some combination of the following to be true:
1. Spectacular collapse in Tory polling lead in the final surveys due tomorrow
2. Hugely efficient LD vote picking off a string of Tory Southern Remain seats whilst simultaneously losing deposits almost everywhere else
3. In the event of a tight finish elsewhere, a Tory implosion in Scotland
For 1. we'll have to wait and see; there have been a couple of polls with Labour on 35/36% recently, but others still had them in the low 30s. No consistent and dramatic narrowing yet evident
There's evidence from the MRP and some constituency polls of isolated strong performances by the LDs, though even amongst the constituency surveys results have been decidedly mixed. The three sets of London numbers from Deltapoll yesterday were uniformly discouraging to the yellows. So not much evidence of point 2., either
The mood music from Scotland, the MRP and the Scotland-only polls are all reasonably encouraging for the Tories. They might hold their current numbers, they might go down to about eight, but a wipeout seems improbable based on available evidence
In short, if the MRP comes out with a number something like Con Maj 30 then I'd be inclined to believe it, and it would certainly seem unlikely that a margin that large would be wiped out in 48 hours.0 -
It’s not designed to be a representation of reality it is to power this groups view of who you should tactically vote for to beat the tories, these sites have been a scourge on this election campaign.Ave_it said:
Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???bigjohnowls said:
Bolsover Tory Gainspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
Fcuking dirty.RobD said:0 -
The Johnson phone gate clip has now topped 11 million views .
That’s pretty amazing even allowing for the repeat views .0 -
Independent in East Devon to go backwards from 2017 it predicts, a shame.0
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Best poster everrcs1000 said:The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.
Does this mean I am immune from banning?!
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I tend to agree, the Focaldata MRP based on it's results by constituency does not look credible.nichomar said:
It’s not designed to be a representation of reality it is to power this groups view of who you should tactically vote for to beat the tories, these sites have been a scourge on this election campaign.Ave_it said:
Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???bigjohnowls said:
Bolsover Tory Gainspeedy2 said:The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.0 -
Art history news (I'm obviously linking to this because I'm worried).
https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1204464116355805192?s=200 -
I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth-1 -
FocalDataGallowgate said:
Which MRP is that from?kle4 said:Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!
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That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.rcs1000 said:The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.0 -
Those who deliberately violate a poll embargo deserve to be violated by a bunch of horny honey badgers.0
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Sean_F said:
I would not wish to share a trench with you.Byronic said:Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.
I think the concern Byronic has is that Boris’s are also starting to circle the urinal in the same gents.1 -
I agree with all of that apart from the first sentence. If Swinson loses her seat she certainly won’t be given time; she may not anyway.IanB2 said:
Swinson is brand new and will be given time to grow into the job. The mistakes are strategic - getting carried away after the Euros and planning a campaign expecting to be about to sweep the country. Adopting a revoke policy that wouldn’t attract a single extra voter but would repel many soft remainers. Appointing the same guy to manage the campaign that made such a shambles of 2017. Making idiots of themselves by abusing OGH’s permission to use his reputation to send absurd voter letters to no-hope constituencies up and down the land. Claiming to be focused on denying Bozo his majority yet even today directing activists toward seats where we are up against Labour remainers. Etc.numbertwelve said:It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
In retrospect the error was possibly electing a wannabe PM with government experience, when what the Lib Dems needed was a punchy insurgent. Ed Davey is the least likely insurgent in history... which is why it should have been Layla Moran. And yes, pun intentional.
It’s remarkable that Moran’s seat, previously the most marginal of all, is now generally accepted to be a safe seat while Swinson’s is on a knife edge. (Some of the blame for that is on the local Conservative association who selected an absolute disaster of a candidate; all the more remarkable in that they turned down the one Conservative politician in the whole of Oxfordshire who I think could have given Layla a run for her money.)0 -
houndtang said:
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
I had a filling re-done last week and the (private) dentists did four x-rays in three minutes and had them all up on screen thirty seconds later. My 3yo subluxated his elbow two months ago and (after an admittedly long A&E wait post-triage) he had an NHS x-ray done and viewed so quickly I forgot to ask for a copy for his bedroom wall. Doc, happy there was no fracture, popped it back in there and then.IanB2 said:
x-rays they already have in the drawer before you turn up don’t count.houndtang said:Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.0
