Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
I am so so sorry. I almost dare not ask you the outcome now so don't answer if you'd rather not.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
It is not that exciting surely?
Declaring the results takes nearly as long as California these days.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
No the raising of the MARY rose now that was exciting!
It's not a tear it's sweat.
But this is absolutely bloody ridiculous. Someone needs to smack Mr Armitage around the head with a wet fish.
Mind you, can you imagine the problems if he was limited to the pb.com emoji selection? There are but 5.
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
One of the questions in the YouGov survey this morning (which I assume is feeding into the MRP tonight, was about Vox pops. I can't remember the actual question I am afraid but my answer to it was not favourable.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
LibDem - nil points.....
Oh, you`re back. How was the film? Hope you`re not meerkatting.
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
The BBC are sometimes less than entirely proficient when it comes to their election coverage, I'm afraid. They were doing a piece on Radio 5 Live about undecided voters in Crewe & Nantwich (a 60% Leave, Lab-Con hyper-marginal in Cheshire) the other day. The panel they chose to speak to on air appeared to have been scraped together from the audience of a TV program they'd filmed there earlier in the day and consisted of two Scottish Remain backers who were dithering between Labour and the SNP, a local Remain backer who was dithering between Labour and the Lib Dems, and a fourth chap who also thought Brexit a bad idea, was dithering between the Tories and Lib Dems, but thought he would probably vote Conservative. A reason for this decision was neither volunteered nor sought.
Like many posters, I am very nervous about this election, and I will be following PB on election night. I normally wait up for the "Bong", go to bed, and get up about 3.00am.
I will be out for the evening but the exit poll will definitely dictate whether I stay up and enjoy the night or go to bed and hide under the covers.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
No the raising of the MARY rose now that was exciting!
It's not a tear it's sweat.
But this is absolutely bloody ridiculous. Someone needs to smack Mr Armitage around the head with a wet fish.
Mind you, can you imagine the problems if he was limited to the pb.com emoji selection? There are but 5.
The 'experts' who think its odd the SNP didn't focus solely on Brexit need to work out why the SNP campaign bombed in 2017 when they did exactly that.
The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote.
This is so blindingly obvious I cannot take the utterances of the people in the article seriously.
Having followed the campaign here in Scotland closely, I thought it was worth linking to the article. It was obvious that the initial SNP GE campaign strategy was exactly as you point out. "The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote."
But there was definitely a clear change of focus in the SNP campaign strategy last week as shown by the last SNP leaflet I got which focussed on the SNP claim that the Scottish NHS was only safe from privatisation in their hands. Why? Is it because that on the doorsteps the anti Boris/Brexit message is not cutting through as strongly with the voters they also need to target outside the SNP core box, particularly disaffected SLab voters in their marginal seats?
So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.
I have to say I'm haven't been quite convinced of Yougov's MRP this time round, but nor do I think we're already nailed on for a hung parliament.
Personally, I find some of the results surprising. Most of the con/lib marginals are in line with constituency polling when available and make sense given the majorities and remain vote (I'm just a bit surprised the swing is so big in St Albans), but in most labour leave seats the swing to the tories is much smaller than the constituency polls have shown, or what you'd expect based on the terrible retention rate of labour leave voters (50% according to the latest Deltapoll iirc).
It'll be interesting to see which is right on polling day.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worse it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Whatever the Yougov poll says, I hope it's materially wrong. Else the next few election campaigns are going to revolve around what it says to an unhealthy degree.
On topic, tactical voting has peaked. It basically boils down to natural Lib Dems voting Labour to keep out the Tories (outside of Scotland, and a few parts of Wales). It's already baked in to last time's results.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
LibDem - nil points.....
Oh, you`re back. How was the film? Hope you`re not meerkatting.
It was a hell of a rollerscoaster. As somebody said, it is as unrelenting as a video game.
The tracking shot through the trenches at the start is remarkable.
Like many posters, I am very nervous about this election, and I will be following PB on election night. I normally wait up for the "Bong", go to bed, and get up about 3.00am.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
If you turn up with chest pains you go straight to the front of the queue, even if they do turn out to be due to a pulled muscle.
Yep, absolutely, been there done that, and went straight to the front of the queue, on morphine within 10 mins, well done NHS.
Not always ... took 2 hours to get a blue light to our home. We live 5 mins from the hospital. Would have gone in by car but they ordered to wait for paramedics.
I swear the following is true.
A friend of mine was out running with a buddy the other day. Friend got hit by a car, which drove off. The collision itself wasn't bad but it knocked him over and as he fell he cracked the side of his head on the pavement. Blood started to flow freely from the wound. My friend called 999. Told him it would take 2 hours to get an ambulance out as there simply weren't any.
So my friend ran back home, grabbed his keys, drove back, threw buddy in the car and drove to A&E where he was checked over and stitched after about 4 hours.
A week later my friend got a speeding fine for doing 37mph in a 30.
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
One of the questions in the YouGov survey this morning (which I assume is feeding into the MRP tonight, was about Vox pops. I can't remember the actual question I am afraid but my answer to it was not favourable.
Do you find news items where members of the public give their opinions about politics either informative or entertaining
Or words to that effect.
Like all right thinking people I said NoNONooooooooooo stop them.
The 'experts' who think its odd the SNP didn't focus solely on Brexit need to work out why the SNP campaign bombed in 2017 when they did exactly that.
The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote.
This is so blindingly obvious I cannot take the utterances of the people in the article seriously.
Having followed the campaign here in Scotland closely, I thought it was worth linking to the article. It was obvious that the initial SNP GE campaign strategy was exactly as you point out. "The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote."
But there was definitely a clear change of focus in the SNP campaign strategy last week as shown by the last SNP leaflet I got which focussed on the SNP claim that the Scottish NHS was only safe from privatisation in their hands. Why? Is it because that on the doorsteps the anti Boris/Brexit message is not cutting through as strongly with the voters they also need to target outside the SNP core box, particularly disaffected SLab voters in their marginal seats?
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
The BBC are sometimes less than entirely proficient when it comes to their election coverage, I'm afraid. They were doing a piece on Radio 5 Live about undecided voters in Crewe & Nantwich (a 60% Leave, Lab-Con hyper-marginal in Cheshire) the other day. The panel they chose to speak to on air appeared to have been scraped together from the audience of a TV program they'd filmed there earlier in the day and consisted of two Scottish Remain backers who were dithering between Labour and the SNP, a local Remain backer who was dithering between Labour and the Lib Dems, and a fourth chap who also thought Brexit a bad idea, was dithering between the Tories and Lib Dems, but thought he would probably vote Conservative. A reason for this decision was neither volunteered nor sought.
If the Tories aren't smashing it in places like Crewe, they are screwed. Its Leave and they have had a very large amount of immigration from Poland, which has put a lot of pressure on schools and services.
Also, they aren't totally anti-Tory (especially given there is Nantwich, which is a posher town and it has expanded a lot over past few years), and the local MP is useless plonker compared to the Tory Timpson who they had before who was very well liked. He only lost because May was very unpopular and were told easy Tory win, so lots of people went well we can protest vote.
Equally the Tory emoji could be tears of joy . Who knows , only a few hours to wait . I haven’t been this excited since the last Eurovision Song Contest!
No the raising of the MARY rose now that was exciting!
It's not a tear it's sweat.
But this is absolutely bloody ridiculous. Someone needs to smack Mr Armitage around the head with a wet fish.
Mind you, can you imagine the problems if he was limited to the pb.com emoji selection? There are but 5.
I would point out that you can copy/paste any emoji you like into pb, but 🤐
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
One of the questions in the YouGov survey this morning (which I assume is feeding into the MRP tonight, was about Vox pops. I can't remember the actual question I am afraid but my answer to it was not favourable.
That’s the survey already out, which supplied the data for this thread
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
One of the questions in the YouGov survey this morning (which I assume is feeding into the MRP tonight, was about Vox pops. I can't remember the actual question I am afraid but my answer to it was not favourable.
Do you find news items where members of the public give their opinions about politics either informative or entertaining
Or words to that effect.
Like all right thinking people I said NoNONooooooooooo stop them.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
Don't be silly, @Charles will be making his own private arrangements.
That's the thing. When your myocardium goes on the blink, the best place is the emergency cardiac catheter lab. In Leicester the ambos take you straight there, bypassing ED, and often having an emergency stent and thrombosis within 20 min.
Try to get that service in the private sector and you will be telling your tale to St Peter!
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
BBC news interviewing lifelong Labour voter in Wakefield. But not voting Labour this time because they wont commit to getting Brexit done. He's voting LibDem instead! 🤔
I’ll be relieved when these Vox pops end . They just make my superiority complex even worse when I see idiot members of the public who look like they can’t tie up their own shoelaces delivering nonsense !
The BBC are also getting on my tits , it’s like they never go to Remain areas but just subject us to constant shows of idiocy from that voter you highlighted .
I disagree. Vox pops are a salutary reminder of exactly what democracy entails.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
I am so so sorry. I almost dare not ask you the outcome now so don't answer if you'd rather not.
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
I am so so sorry. I almost dare not ask you the outcome now so don't answer if you'd rather not.
She died, after endless delays & the Consultant forgetting a vital pre-chemo treatment that delayed the treatment even longer.We were fortunately in a position to move to private treatment but by that time it was too late.
Legal action was reviewed but we were warned that they cover each others backs & another Oncologist would be used by the hospital to defend the case.
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
So sorry to hear that.
I don't know if it is possible, but we need to try to find a way to take it out of politics.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
Was wild in Scotland today , heavy rain and high winds , ooops just normal day
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
If you turn up with chest pains you go straight to the front of the queue, even if they do turn out to be due to a pulled muscle.
Yep, absolutely, been there done that, and went straight to the front of the queue, on morphine within 10 mins, well done NHS.
Not always ... took 2 hours to get a blue light to our home. We live 5 mins from the hospital. Would have gone in by car but they ordered to wait for paramedics.
I swear the following is true.
A friend of mine was out running with a buddy the other day. Friend got hit by a car, which drove off. The collision itself wasn't bad but it knocked him over and as he fell he cracked the side of his head on the pavement. Blood started to flow freely from the wound. My friend called 999. Told him it would take 2 hours to get an ambulance out as there simply weren't any.
So my friend ran back home, grabbed his keys, drove back, threw buddy in the car and drove to A&E where he was checked over and stitched after about 4 hours.
A week later my friend got a speeding fine for doing 37mph in a 30.
I believe he would reasonably be able to challenge that. I was flashed a few years ago taking an injured friend (sliced tendon from punching through a window) to hospital after we had been told they could not tell us how long it would be to get an ambulance. I was well over the limit although outside a built up area.
When the ticket came through I contacted the local police who told me to get all the evidence together and present it at the station. They then said forget about it and I never heard another thing.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
☂️ weather, then.
Unless anyone has an even mildly compelling thesis about *differential* turnout in bad weather, so what? Except for those actually betting on turnout, obv.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
If you turn up with chest pains you go straight to the front of the queue, even if they do turn out to be due to a pulled muscle.
Yep, absolutely, been there done that, and went straight to the front of the queue, on morphine within 10 mins, well done NHS.
Not always ... took 2 hours to get a blue light to our home. We live 5 mins from the hospital. Would have gone in by car but they ordered to wait for paramedics.
I swear the following is true.
A friend of mine was out running with a buddy the other day. Friend got hit by a car, which drove off. The collision itself wasn't bad but it knocked him over and as he fell he cracked the side of his head on the pavement. Blood started to flow freely from the wound. My friend called 999. Told him it would take 2 hours to get an ambulance out as there simply weren't any.
So my friend ran back home, grabbed his keys, drove back, threw buddy in the car and drove to A&E where he was checked over and stitched after about 4 hours.
A week later my friend got a speeding fine for doing 37mph in a 30.
I believe he would reasonably be able to challenge that. I was flashed a few years ago taking an injured friend (sliced tendon from punching through a window) to hospital after we had been told they could not tell us how long it would be to get an ambulance. I was well over the limit although outside a built up area.
When the ticket came through I contacted the local police who told me to get all the evidence together and present it at the station. They then said forget about it and I never heard another thing.
Edit rereading I meant speed limit not alcohol.
Thanks Richard. I believe he's trying just that. Fingers crossed.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
My experience of my local A&E is pretty good, both here and in California,
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
I am so so sorry. I almost dare not ask you the outcome now so don't answer if you'd rather not.
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
I am so so sorry. I almost dare not ask you the outcome now so don't answer if you'd rather not.
She died, after endless delays & the Consultant forgetting a vital pre-chemo treatment that delayed the treatment even longer.We were fortunately in a position to move to private treatment but by that time it was too late.
Legal action was reviewed but we were warned that they cover each others backs & another Oncologist would be used by the hospital to defend the case.
God I'm sorry.
Not a time for politics when you hear something like that. I'm so so sorry.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
I was told in 2012 by an NHS consultant oncologist that I did not have cancer, when I did in fact have cancer (all sorted now, thanks).
When you have thought through the implications of that fact for the Appeal to Authority we will move on to Appeals to Authority on subjects entirely outwith the authority's field of expertise.
Several months back my son was told he did not have cancer and best to leave that lump where it is.
Several months later, after first being told he "probably" had an infection we are in urgent appointment mode - at least they are seeing him quickly.
But he needs a blood test before they do one of the tests (dye injection needed) and the receptionist at docs said... no, cant do that for 2 weeks ...
Not the governments fault, just that of someone "following procedure" and a call to the doctor quickly overruled that decision
The 'experts' who think its odd the SNP didn't focus solely on Brexit need to work out why the SNP campaign bombed in 2017 when they did exactly that.
The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote.
This is so blindingly obvious I cannot take the utterances of the people in the article seriously.
Alistair , It is the SUN, comic singers at best. I see also Fitalaugh has reappeared at election time, CCHQ must be struggling when they are bringing out the old Dad's Army mob.
Hi MalcolmG, glad to see you are still in feisty and acerbic form as ever. I rarely post these days, but I do still follow PB.com, just prefer to lurk rather than post very often outside elections. I finally caught the political bug and started to do some GE/Holyrood betting from 2015 onwards with some modest success after so many years of following the expertise and tips of the regular punters on here.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
The one thing I think the polls are missing is the “below the radar” targeted campaigning as we saw in the 2015 election when everyone excepted a hung parliament and we ended up with a Tory majority. Even the exit poll did not pick this up. We saw the same in the 2016 referendum where leave mobilised voters where traditional voter contact and polling could not reach , people who hadn’t voted for years . If the tories are managing to remobilise those voters Thursday night could be a surprising result . time will tell
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
So sorry to hear that.
I don't know if it is possible, but we need to try to find a way to take it out of politics.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
☂️ weather, then.
Unless anyone has an even mildly compelling thesis about *differential* turnout in bad weather, so what? Except for those actually being on turnout, obv.
The thing is though, they are moving back into second place and within a chance of winning in a number of seats. it's just not going to be this election. played right I can see them making a number of gains in 2024 when Brexit will be resolved to the point that it'll only be the remnants of a trade deal and the Tories will have been in power for 14 years. If Labour have another Corbynesque leader then it could help them even more.
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The argument for a Con majority based on past leader favourability differentials is weak, because nobody seems to remember when the last time was that a PM ran in a GE never having won a GE before or even led a party that had a majority in the Commons. James Callaghan governed reasonably stably for a few years with the help of the Liberals. It went a bit chaotic at the end and the Tories successfully referenced the chaos and weakness to win the 1979 election. (Many still talk about dead bodies piling up in mortuaries - a powerful image.)
Johnson has "governed" for a few months, he lost several leading figures in his own party, and he has hardly done any PMQs. I think he got one piece of legislation through but I can't remember what it was, because almost every time he brought a bill or motion to the Commons it got whacked for six. Many in his government openly talked about Parliament as the enemy. He famously made a promise about Halloween using vivid language and couldn't keep it. A number of times he couldn't even arrange a general election when he tried to, and he had difficulty walking in a straight line at the Cenotaph.
Against this record of mouthy nothingness and blaming other people is Johnson's personality. He comes across as jovial and extrovert - not even fazed when he's left hanging in a harness. He's always "Boris". He's like a car salesman or something. He's in your face with his face. He's great at making BS promises. Hardly anyone refers to him as "Johnson" even when they call Jeremy Corbyn "Corbyn". Johnson failed at getting Brexit done, but here he is, he's the man who will "get it all done". The surface message (Parent-Child) is "I can do everything, so get on board." The undermessage (Child-Parent) is "Oh please please, electorate, will you please support me?" That's very similar to what Theresa May said in 2017, but Johnson carries it off much better because he clothes it as forcefulness, not as a pathetic case of poor leadership and lack of vision, which is what it is. (A good leader with vision would have got a deal through the Commons, if necessary by giving an ultimatum to the ERG.) So the bulldozer shtick today was well thought out. Being visual works. But the Tories are nowhere near a 10pp lead or a big majority.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
Don't be silly, @Charles will be making his own private arrangements.
Hmm, then he probably may end up selling his coats, sleeping bag and house. Just like those with no insurance do, in Trumpanzee's land.
I'll confess I didn't see the final frame when I posted that up
I think it kind of spoils her message.
I'm in a Con-Lab marginal and my first priority is to try and prevent Johnson's majority.
You see, Mysticrose, I am a LibDem voter for many years and liberal from my head to my toes, agonising over whether I can vote LibDem this time, toying with the Green Party, and here you are, a fellow LibDem activist, posting Labour propaganda.
You know very well that NHS funding has risen every year, part of which time the LibDems were in coalition government. And you also know that the Labour Party are again up to their old trick of using the NHS as a political football. Why can`t you, like me, be proud of our role in coalition government? And how can you, a liberal, align yourself so closely with a collectivist party (in which the individual is nowhere under its current socialist iteration) rather than remaining equidistant between the two opposing ideologies to liberalism?
This is a GE not a referendum
Because she's a Labour shill, not a LibDem activist.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
I will be on a canaries cruise over Christmas hope it wasn’t pullmantur zenith ?
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
Would you have gone out to vote in this weather?
I have just been for a run, so no problem
I was supposed to meet a friend today. We cancelled. I was also supposed to go to yoga this evening. Cancelled.
Just horrendous out there. All day.
Anyway I'm dipping out of here for an hour or two. Want to take some time out and reflect on those messages about losing loved ones.
The 'experts' who think its odd the SNP didn't focus solely on Brexit need to work out why the SNP campaign bombed in 2017 when they did exactly that.
The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote.
This is so blindingly obvious I cannot take the utterances of the people in the article seriously.
Alistair , It is the SUN, comic singers at best. I see also Fitalaugh has reappeared at election time, CCHQ must be struggling when they are bringing out the old Dad's Army mob.
Hi MalcolmG, glad to see you are still in feisty and acerbic form as ever. I rarely post these days, but I do still follow PB.com, just prefer to lurk rather than post very often outside elections. I finally caught the political bug and started to do some GE/Holyrood betting from 2015 onwards with some modest success after so many years of following the expertise and tips of the regular punters on here.
Good to see you Fitalass and glad to see you take my comments in the way they are intended, just for laughs. Many on here take it too seriously and miss intended humour. I hope you are well and enjoying life.
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
So sorry to hear that.
I don't know if it is possible, but we need to try to find a way to take it out of politics.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
For most of the country the weather is predicted to be pleasant in the morning, by lunchtime it will rain in most of the country with some gale force winds in the coastal south and by the afternoon the worst weather will be over London, by 10pm it will only be raining heavily in the East.
The only place where it will rain from start to finish is Wales and Cornwall. There might be some snow in Yorkshire in the afternoon.
But no rain or wind in Scotland, just an inch or two of snow in the afternoon.
So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.
I have to say I'm haven't been quite convinced of Yougov's MRP this time round, but nor do I think we're already nailed on for a hung parliament.
Personally, I find some of the results surprising. Most of the con/lib marginals are in line with constituency polling when available and make sense given the majorities and remain vote (I'm just a bit surprised the swing is so big in St Albans), but in most labour leave seats the swing to the tories is much smaller than the constituency polls have shown, or what you'd expect based on the terrible retention rate of labour leave voters (50% according to the latest Deltapoll iirc).
It'll be interesting to see which is right on polling day.
Remember that the MRP’s weakness, as YouGov themselves explain in their blurb, is dealing with very localised campaigns. As the LDs have been pushed back to targeting more narrowly, you’d expect the model to get less accurate in forecasting their result.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
I will be on a canaries cruise over Christmas hope it wasn’t pullmantur zenith ?
It's nailed on LAB win now so I will be moving into into your hacienda soon x
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
If you turn up with chest pains you go straight to the front of the queue, even if they do turn out to be due to a pulled muscle.
Yep, absolutely, been there done that, and went straight to the front of the queue, on morphine within 10 mins, well done NHS.
Not always ... took 2 hours to get a blue light to our home. We live 5 mins from the hospital. Would have gone in by car but they ordered to wait for paramedics.
I swear the following is true.
A friend of mine was out running with a buddy the other day. Friend got hit by a car, which drove off. The collision itself wasn't bad but it knocked him over and as he fell he cracked the side of his head on the pavement. Blood started to flow freely from the wound. My friend called 999. Told him it would take 2 hours to get an ambulance out as there simply weren't any.
So my friend ran back home, grabbed his keys, drove back, threw buddy in the car and drove to A&E where he was checked over and stitched after about 4 hours.
A week later my friend got a speeding fine for doing 37mph in a 30.
Hope it worked out well for your friend. Yes we all have different experiences, a speeding fine sucks. I once got rescued by Mountain rescue, again, I am indebited, the hospital they took me to were very good, and I am still fell running.
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
Which cruise ship is that if you do not mind telling me ?
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
It depends on where you start but I’d now be happy with 15
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The Brexit Party winning the Euros got May sacked, the second referendum/revoke tide turned, and a Tory leader who has got Brexit almost over the line installed. People who wanted to Remain now feasting on crumbs of comfort by seeing Farage marginalised are welcome to them!
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
I will be on a canaries cruise over Christmas hope it wasn’t pullmantur zenith ?
It's nailed on LAB win now so I will be moving into into your hacienda soon x
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
Would you have gone out to vote in this weather?
I have just been for a run, so no problem
Funny you should ask that question as I ventured out in Putney early afternoon to post off my vote. I had been in two minds whether to bother bearing in mind the dreadful weather but then I remembered seeing a video clip last night of reportedly 500 young Labour activists (but actually probably nearer100) congregated in the centre of Putney, seemingly not knowing what to do or where to go. I imagine most finished up in one of the many boozers in the area, spending the rent-a-crowd money so generously lavished on them by Labour. I therefore decided to do my duty and vote in what looks like a very marginal constituency.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
Would you have gone out to vote in this weather?
I have just been for a run, so no problem
I was supposed to meet a friend today. We cancelled. I was also supposed to go to yoga this evening. Cancelled.
Just horrendous out there. All day.
Anyway I'm dipping out of here for an hour or two. Want to take some time out and reflect on those messages about losing loved ones.
Sometimes party politics feels very out of place.
Difficult to add to that without sounding pretentious, so I’m not going to try.
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
They don't exactly have a vast pool from which to choose. Needless to say, if they actually go backwards that would shrink. Though if Swinson loses her seat then her hand will be forced.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves. The MRP *may* give a reasonably accurate forecast of what is to become of the Liberal Democrats. An emoji written by someone supposedly summarising the MRP may transpire to be somewhat less reliable.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
Would you have gone out to vote in this weather?
I have just been for a run, so no problem
I was supposed to meet a friend today. We cancelled. I was also supposed to go to yoga this evening. Cancelled.
Just horrendous out there. All day.
Anyway I'm dipping out of here for an hour or two. Want to take some time out and reflect on those messages about losing loved ones.
Sometimes party politics feels very out of place.
That is very nice of you and it is the real world away from politics
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
After the TMay experience no doubt we'll be in for another row with Betfair on the timing
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
Comments
But this is absolutely bloody ridiculous. Someone needs to smack Mr Armitage around the head with a wet fish.
Mind you, can you imagine the problems if he was limited to the pb.com emoji selection? There are but 5.
But there was definitely a clear change of focus in the SNP campaign strategy last week as shown by the last SNP leaflet I got which focussed on the SNP claim that the Scottish NHS was only safe from privatisation in their hands. Why? Is it because that on the doorsteps the anti Boris/Brexit message is not cutting through as strongly with the voters they also need to target outside the SNP core box, particularly disaffected SLab voters in their marginal seats?
It'll be interesting to see which is right on polling day.
The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France.
The more south you are the worse it will be but not worse than today's weather.
On topic, tactical voting has peaked. It basically boils down to natural Lib Dems voting Labour to keep out the Tories (outside of Scotland, and a few parts of Wales). It's already baked in to last time's results.
The tracking shot through the trenches at the start is remarkable.
For those who have worked for their money be scared. Be very scared!
I swear the following is true.
A friend of mine was out running with a buddy the other day. Friend got hit by a car, which drove off. The collision itself wasn't bad but it knocked him over and as he fell he cracked the side of his head on the pavement. Blood started to flow freely from the wound. My friend called 999. Told him it would take 2 hours to get an ambulance out as there simply weren't any.
So my friend ran back home, grabbed his keys, drove back, threw buddy in the car and drove to A&E where he was checked over and stitched after about 4 hours.
A week later my friend got a speeding fine for doing 37mph in a 30.
Or words to that effect.
Like all right thinking people I said NoNONooooooooooo stop them.
Also, they aren't totally anti-Tory (especially given there is Nantwich, which is a posher town and it has expanded a lot over past few years), and the local MP is useless plonker compared to the Tory Timpson who they had before who was very well liked. He only lost because May was very unpopular and were told easy Tory win, so lots of people went well we can protest vote.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
Try to get that service in the private sector and you will be telling your tale to St Peter!
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
She died, after endless delays & the Consultant forgetting a vital pre-chemo treatment that delayed the treatment even longer.We were fortunately in a position to move to private treatment but by that time it was too late.
Legal action was reviewed but we were warned that they cover each others backs & another Oncologist would be used by the hospital to defend the case.
I don't know if it is possible, but we need to try to find a way to take it out of politics.
When the ticket came through I contacted the local police who told me to get all the evidence together and present it at the station. They then said forget about it and I never heard another thing.
Edit rereading I meant speed limit not alcohol.
Unless anyone has an even mildly compelling thesis about *differential* turnout in bad weather, so what? Except for those actually betting on turnout, obv.
Not a time for politics when you hear something like that. I'm so so sorry.
Several months later, after first being told he "probably" had an infection we are in urgent appointment mode - at least they are seeing him quickly.
But he needs a blood test before they do one of the tests (dye injection needed) and the receptionist at docs said... no, cant do that for 2 weeks ...
Not the governments fault, just that of someone "following procedure" and a call to the doctor quickly overruled that decision
Dreadful. Really dreadful.
The argument for a Con majority based on past leader favourability differentials is weak, because nobody seems to remember when the last time was that a PM ran in a GE never having won a GE before or even led a party that had a majority in the Commons. James Callaghan governed reasonably stably for a few years with the help of the Liberals. It went a bit chaotic at the end and the Tories successfully referenced the chaos and weakness to win the 1979 election. (Many still talk about dead bodies piling up in mortuaries - a powerful image.)
Johnson has "governed" for a few months, he lost several leading figures in his own party, and he has hardly done any PMQs. I think he got one piece of legislation through but I can't remember what it was, because almost every time he brought a bill or motion to the Commons it got whacked for six. Many in his government openly talked about Parliament as the enemy. He famously made a promise about Halloween using vivid language and couldn't keep it. A number of times he couldn't even arrange a general election when he tried to, and he had difficulty walking in a straight line at the Cenotaph.
Against this record of mouthy nothingness and blaming other people is Johnson's personality. He comes across as jovial and extrovert - not even fazed when he's left hanging in a harness. He's always "Boris". He's like a car salesman or something. He's in your face with his face. He's great at making BS promises. Hardly anyone refers to him as "Johnson" even when they call Jeremy Corbyn "Corbyn". Johnson failed at getting Brexit done, but here he is, he's the man who will "get it all done". The surface message (Parent-Child) is "I can do everything, so get on board." The undermessage (Child-Parent) is "Oh please please, electorate, will you please support me?" That's very similar to what Theresa May said in 2017, but Johnson carries it off much better because he clothes it as forcefulness, not as a pathetic case of poor leadership and lack of vision, which is what it is. (A good leader with vision would have got a deal through the Commons, if necessary by giving an ultimatum to the ERG.) So the bulldozer shtick today was well thought out. Being visual works. But the Tories are nowhere near a 10pp lead or a big majority.
A cynic might have some fun with fake rumours about now.
Redwood in trouble?
I stayed in a hotel and they came as standard with the suites.
Became kinda weird after a few hours.
Just horrendous out there. All day.
Anyway I'm dipping out of here for an hour or two. Want to take some time out and reflect on those messages about losing loved ones.
Sometimes party politics feels very out of place.
The only place where it will rain from start to finish is Wales and Cornwall.
There might be some snow in Yorkshire in the afternoon.
But no rain or wind in Scotland, just an inch or two of snow in the afternoon.
You can check it here too:
https://www.wxcharts.com/
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
Yes we all have different experiences, a speeding fine sucks.
I once got rescued by Mountain rescue, again, I am indebited, the hospital they took me to were very good, and I am still fell running.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
2010 was spot on I think
I think his fate is obvious.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves. The MRP *may* give a reasonably accurate forecast of what is to become of the Liberal Democrats. An emoji written by someone supposedly summarising the MRP may transpire to be somewhat less reliable.
Con 0
Lab 0
Libdem 0
JEB! 650 (!)