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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 polling and betting update

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 polling and betting update

Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    First.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    First unlike probably everyone on Thursday night..
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Awaiting Yougov MRP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Awaiting Yougov MRP

    What time`s it due? RobD?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

    Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Awaiting Yougov MRP

    What time`s it due? RobD?
    I thought it was 10pm, but the more I say it, the more i wonder if it is actually at 10!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    eek said:

    First unlike probably everyone on Thursday night..

    We can only hope. :D:D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited December 2019
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?
    He is a Shadow Cabinet Minister
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    Beibheirli_C said:

    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?
    Not enough PBers on panels!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

    Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?
    Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Honestly i'm surprised we ever see any changes in the polls since they seem to only ask political activists.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Yorkshire post still debunking Tory lies from non existent nurse.

    The story would have moved on had they not tried to lie their way out of it

    Instead it's still headline news on Look North at least.

    BREAKING: Sheree Jenner-Hepburn claims she was hacked. Knows not a soul in Leeds, she says. So, that 'good friend' that was used to debunk our story was - according to her - a fabrication.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    We live in a parliamentary democracy and a majority of 1 is mandate.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    I think most people would agree that Boris won't have difficulty with that stretch.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    How? The survey was conducted before the story broke
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I think that there is a very strong likelihood that they will come out of this election with fewer MPs than they went into it with but I still expect them to improve on 2017. Most, probably all, of those who changed their allegiance are likely to lose their seats.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....
    Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    You can`t say that. Many Labour voters are leavers. This is not a ref no matter what they tell you.

    Tories get a maj and we are out on 31/1.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    One can only hope and keep fingers crossed.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    wooliedyed said:

    RobD said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....
    Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week
    And yesterdays ComRes was 0.5% swing away from Lab.

    We are still at circa 9-11 imo
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017
    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    Hahhahahaha.

    The miserable workings of FPTP will never stop a Tory/Labour robot claiming a fake mandate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    RobD said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

    Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?
    Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.
    Rob , you missed out "nasty lying cheating scumbag " before Tory there.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 656
    Is this the time to steel yourself and sell Tory seats? This feels like the time to make money.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?
    Not enough PBers on panels!
    :+1::D
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?
    Not enough PBers on panels!
    More of them should be in sanitoriums never mind panels
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?
    Not enough PBers on panels!
    PanelBeating.com
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    When you look at that table it is really Labour that the pollsters are finding difficult. The Tories and Lib Dems are both in quite a narrow range and remarkably stable. The difference between Opinium and Survation as against ICM for Labour is remarkable. Someone has got this seriously wrong. Have ICM done a better job of identifying the reasons why Labour outperformed the polls in 2017?

    The graph on the last thread was salutary. Given that the polls were clearly closing that time around the consensus that the Tories would get a majority was absurdly robust. A huge misjudgment by the betting markets, one of the biggest since 1992.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    edited December 2019
    wooliedyed said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    How? The survey was conducted before the story broke
    Finished yesterday story broke yesterday so maybe it did slightly. More to the point it might yet be a portender of late swingback. Don't get me wrong I'm not a Corbynista far from it but we do need to be able spot late changes in the dynamic.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    RobD said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....
    Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week
    And yesterdays ComRes was 0.5% swing away from Lab.

    We are still at circa 9-11 imo
    I'm at 10 to 12 but yes
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    We live in a parliamentary democracy and a majority of 1 is mandate.
    So each vote in the last parliament blocking Brexit was fully democratic and reflecting the national mandate, not parliament blocking democracy? Or is this another cake and eat it type of quote?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

    Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?
    Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.
    Rob , you missed out "nasty lying cheating scumbag " before Tory there.
    Sorry, I though that was implied. :)
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 656
    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    RobC said:

    wooliedyed said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    How? The survey was conducted before the story broke
    Finished yesterday story broke yesterday so maybe it did slightly. More to the point it might yet be a portender of late swingback. Don't get me wrong I'm not a Corbynista far from it but we do need to be able spot late changes in the dynamic.
    The 3 other polls released since sunday show the opposite.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    brokenwheel said:

    RobD said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!
    Honestly i'm surprised we ever see any changes in the polls since they seem to only ask political activists.
    I believe the online polling companies worked out pretty quickly and have tried to mitigate. One way, which unfortunately is contradicted by Sqareroot2s tardiness, is that they don't take the first people to respond, but try to spread the sample out from people who respond at different times.

    Given that most of their work is non-political, I'd assume the likes of YouGov know enough about their panel to be able to ask a lot of nonPBers too :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    hamiltonace said:

    Is this the time to steel yourself and sell Tory seats? This feels like the time to make money.

    Well ... 343 seats implies a maj of 40. Maybe a touch on the high side I suppose? I`d rather be selling than buying I think.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    I thought the Duffy story didn’t have any impact?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    OldKingCole said:

    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!
    He will probably just make something up. I expect no less ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    If it's a Tory majority, the LD record will be banging on about Brexit for three years then tricking people into wasting their votes, with absolutely nothing to show for it. Not convinced that's the strongest foundation to build on
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2019
    Back in 2005 I wrote PB on how to boost your YouGov ratings so you'd get invited to participate more and increase the "value" of your views.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/03/01/how-to-improve-your-yougov-ratings/

    This ended with me getting a lawyer's letter from YouGov about not following their guidelines and me being expelled from the list.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited December 2019
    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    I sold at 37.5 and then again at 25.5. Then I went Over at 16.5 at Evens. So I`m happy with my LibDem bets.

    Some of my constituency bets look dodgy though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    There are many many seats that will fall to the Conservatives or Labour on 1,000 votes or less.

    Anyone betting on seat spreads should bear in mind the large MoE either which way.

    You simply can't predict them that accurately.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited December 2019
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
    One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

    I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

    I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
    It's true, you are a bit weird.

    *innocent face*
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
    George Osborne fans?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    And the LD activists in North Oxford are campaigning hard in nearby Witney.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

    Populus lives!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    MikeSmithson said:

    Back in 2005 I wrote PB on how to boost your YouGov ratings so you'd get invited to participate more and increase the "value" of your views.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/03/01/how-to-improve-your-yougov-ratings/

    This ended with me getting a lawyer's letter from YouGov about not following their guidelines and me being expelled from the list.

    So they like S*n readers? Would take Liverpool MRP projections with a pinch of salt then!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Greens v BXP most votes.

    Ladbrokes still 5/6 each but Paddys now BXP 1/2, Greens 6/4. maybe they've taken some chunky bets. not seen any news to cause BXP shortening.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Stocky said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
    He had no idea what was on the phone

    It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    KeithJenner said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
    One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

    I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

    I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
    They have a panel of over a million adults now - so something like one in fifty. I don’t know what their response rate is like, but with the cash incentive it’s probably reasonably good.

    If they are using all of these panellists for their MRP, these are providing what YouGov themselves say are 14,000 responses a day with about 150 people on average responding each week from each constituency. That’s about twice as many per seat as in 2017.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,787
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
    @OnlyLivingBoy , I am genuinely interested in your regression equation in the previous thread. Can you tell me what the X and Y variables are please?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Stocky said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
    Yeah he will be annoyed and embarrassed but it isn't going to cost him buckets full of votes
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    https://twitter.com/frenchbloke/status/1204358221600870400
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    DavidL said:

    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?
    Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019
    Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


    "Natalie Bennett
    ‏
    @natalieben

    Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

    It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    KeithJenner said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
    One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

    I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

    I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
    Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited December 2019
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
    George Osborne fans?
    Inter alia

    Person of colour

    Party member

    Muslim

    Descendent of immigrants

    Working Upper Middle class Northerner

    Right wing person of colour
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    wooliedyed said:

    DavidL said:

    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?
    Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night
    She'll have them on their knees, without a doubt.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

    The mother faked the photo.
    The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
    Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
    Boris didn't want to look at porn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    RobC said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
    Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

    The mother faked the photo.
    The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
    Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
    Boris didn't want to look at porn.

    It’s “look at Ashworth over there!”. Do try to keep up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

    Populus lives!
    They do a lot of the Ashcroft polling.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Other news, looks like Tom Brake is in danger in Carshalton.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,787
    DavidL said:

    wooliedyed said:

    DavidL said:

    hamiltonace said:

    Stocky said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    NorthCadboll said:

    Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

    I assume you are betting heavily on that.
    LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

    That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
    Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
    No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?
    Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night
    She'll have them on their knees, without a doubt.
    I'm begging of you please, AV.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


    "Natalie Bennett
    ‏
    @natalieben

    Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

    It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in an off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like actually replicating the kind of constituency that Brighton is.

    Some years ago the IoW went suddenly and surprisingly Liberal. (Note for N Cadboll....this was when the Liberal Part was a national force, before most of it merged with the SDP to form the LibDems. And became less "Liberal".)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,752
    HYUFD said:

    Streeter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

    If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?
    He is a Shadow Cabinet Minister
    Yep it's like when Ed Balls was asked about whether he'd ever paid cash to his gardener (iirc) without a receipt and he said no he hadn't and the interviewer had said really?? And he replied saying he was shadow Chancellor of course he never had.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    OldKingCole said:

    SandyRentool said:

    With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

    Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!
    I tend to agree that if Boris has a majority, there'll be no truck with the "half the country don't agree with this" spiel. It's full speed to the exit door (unless dodgy candidate vetting makes the majority less secure than it seems as first :smiley: )

    (Conversely, if 2ndRef parties end up with a seat majority, the argument of over-riding democratic legitimacy for the first one starts to thin a little IMO).
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    RobC said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
    Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.
    Remember the efforts to diss Survation last time after its 1% CON led poll
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    noneoftheabove said:

    KeithJenner said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

    One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
    One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

    I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

    I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
    Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?
    The frequency of the surveys has reduced significantly over recent years, doubtless as more and more people sign up. It takes eighteen months to two years to chalk up £50 nowadays.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

    The mother faked the photo.
    The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
    Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
    Boris didn't want to look at porn.

    Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20
    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

    Populus lives!
    I trust that they know that it would be a criminal offence to publish the results of that poll before the polls close at 10pm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,800
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    RobC said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
    Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.
    Remember the efforts to diss Survation last time after its 1% CON led poll
    Yep :o Now I have absolute trust in Survation :)

    (I know, I know!)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    RobC said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
    Agree that Corbyn's weaknesses are already exposed whereas peoples perception of PM Johnson may end up very different to their perception of Boris. Boris could win a landslide but perhaps PM Johnson might be in hung parliament territory.

    The NHS video helps, but it is still hard for Labour to get the public to view him as Johnson and not Boris though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,752
    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Jason said:

    RobC said:

    That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

    That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

    If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
    Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
    The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
    I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
    You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
    He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
    He had no idea what was on the phone

    It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
    Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


    "Natalie Bennett
    ‏
    @natalieben

    Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

    It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.


    If “another great day on the doorstep” tweets from party activists count as evidence, we are in trouble.
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