I can't see much to worry about in the Ashcroft poll. A 54/46% lead for the Conservatives would give them a huge lead over Labour in terms of seats. 52/48 gave a very hefty seat lead to the Brexit side.
I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.
The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
What Labour says about the NHS is not the problem for the Conservatives.
It is that in a winter election, the NHS is under strain, so lots of voters who have been to hospital will have their own experience of delays and trolleys in corridors and small boys on the floor, and so will their friends and family.
Personal experience trumps tractor stats every time.
Yes, I agree. One of the reasons I've got connniptions is that I've had family members say, in the last coupla days: Well actually the NHS really IS looking very shoddy, something has to be done, who will do that best...
And this from non Labour voters.
My brother WAS a life long Labour voter - he has seen shortcomings in the NHS through his and his wife's experiences plus those of my father.
He thinks the NHS is not great but does not blame the tories.
He will never vote tory but is sitting this election out.
Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives
To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling
For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one
Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on
Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.
To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.
You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .
Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
A lot of Tory ads featuring Ashworth I would guess.
Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."
They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Nothing drastic, just the usual stuff of a well-diversified portfolio with a high proportion of investments which are not linked to the UK economy, including a largish chunk domiciled abroad, and maximising use of pensions and ISAs. The latter point is on the basis that those wouldn't be the first targets: they are much more likely to restrict new investment well before it gets to the point that they start having to raid existing ones, and I wouldn't expect a Corbyn-led government to last very long.
You can only mitigate risk, you can't eliminate it.
There are a number of small businesses that, having spent large parts of 2019 on 'No Deal' planning, have oven-ready plans to mitigate the UK becoming business-unfriendly under a Corbynomic regime, whether in or out of the EU.
Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."
They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Buy Euros.
How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
Large sums of cash anything are pretty unuseful things to have, unless you are about to complete on a villa in Cap Ferrat.
If the pound crashes against the euro it's still quite likely to crash to a point at which it is higher than its lowest low of the last 3 years, which you survived.
Just ensure that a good chunk of your shares are in euro stocks (and another good chunk in usd etc etc).
I just sense that Labour have far more people on the ground, yet again, than the Tories, not sure why this is so, other than that Labour is far more successful in attracting the younger voters. Half expecting that the Tories will now struggle to win an overall majority, suspect they are heading for 335 seats at best and maybe a 10-20 majority or thereabouts, which will make their task difficult if they have any meaningful number of rebels. Poor, low key campaign by the Blue Team, despite having far and away more money to spend than their rivals. They've never succeeded in replacing Margaret Thatcher's Saatchi & Saatchi, Tim Bell, etc.
If posters on here are representative then it seems that many of the people who organised Tory campaigns at the constituency level previously are not Johnson fans.
Sorry to be a bit thick . Can you possibly explain what you mean . Thanks .
The amount of money available to back or lay at the different prices. Until about 10 mins ago, each "level" had £1000s available if you wanted to back or lay a particular price. Now we are taking £20 at some prices.
I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.
We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.
Then how do you explain that the group in the population that uses the NHS the most votes solid Tory?
What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .
Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
Yes. It is amusing
Just on canvassing and feed back, with the dreadful weather and dark nights I suspect there is a lot less canvassing going on in practical terms which may result in a lack of the same level of information we had in 2017 and promoting David Herdson's moment at this exact time in 2017
Sorry to be a bit thick . Can you possibly explain what you mean . Thanks .
Most people who bet on here use betting exchanges like Betfair to bet (wusses). Betting exchanges don't use their own money, they bring gamblers together. One gambler bets that something will not happen and puts his money on the table. Another gambler bets that something will happen and puts his money on the table. Each state their odds. If the odds match, the two are bought together, the bet is matched, and the money is taken off the table until the bet is resolved. The money remaining on the table is called "liquidity"
If circumstances change and the odds change rapidly, then there may be insufficient money left on the table at a given odds, so anybody wanting to bet might not find a match. That situation is called "lack of liquidity"
What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages
Now the police just cut the chains.
With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Good balanced portfolio with investment in companies worldwide. If you're really nervous buy some physical gold. If you're really, really nervous buy some physical gold held in a vault that isn't in the UK.
It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .
Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
Is it because LP voters are secretly hoping that they will be saved from a Corbyn government by others but they can have the glow of having made a grand political gesture in voting for him?
I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!
It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .
Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
Yes. It is amusing
Just on canvassing and feed back, with the dreadful weather and dark nights I suspect there is a lot less canvassing going on in practical terms which may result in a lack of the same level of information we had in 2017 and promoting David Herdson's moment at this exact time in 2017
The thing with canvassing is I think it’s not always a great indicator. I remember hearing all about the wonderful canvassing by pro Scottish indy canvassers . That went well ! Lol
Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives
To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling
For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one
Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on
Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.
To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.
You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .
Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
The Guardian is scraping the bottom of the barrel on the NHS, so desperately, the barrel has complained to OFCOM. This is their MAIN headline at the moment:
"'I was hacked,' says woman whose account claimed hospital boy photo was staged"
Probably in reaction to Allison Pearson et al going big on the lies yesterday. (And it seems only fair to the poor hacked woman to give the rebuttal a similar prominence.)
I note various journalistic tweets from yesterday have been deleted.
Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .
If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .
Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.
That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.
Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermine the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.
I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.
The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
It is remarkable how many PB’ers seem to think that people who have applied for a postal vote and sent it back early are likely to be people who otherwise might have changed their mind.
What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
I'd suggest leaving them all outside stuck to the bus overnight. I wonder whether they'd welcome a bit of global warming then?
I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!
Wasn't that, it was such a sudden movement reminiscent of 2017. However the one positive for the Tories is whoever was pushing the price out obviously doesn't fancy doing it anymore.
Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."
They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Buy Euros.
How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
Go to World First, open an account, then they will convert your cash into euros. They are also regulated by the FCA unlike many other currency brokers.
What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages
Now the police just cut the chains.
With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
Right ... but isn't there some kind of "reasonable force" justification for removing them under arrest? Or is any injury forbidden? Or is it more a PR thing?
Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."
They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Buy Euros.
How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
If you are worried about the short term impact, you don’t need to, just create the position with a spread bet.
But, as I said earlier, the downside of most of these measures to insure against a Corbyn win is that they will cost you if Corbyn doesn’t win. You need to put a value on your relief.
I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!
The Ashcroft poll points to a big Conservative win.
If we really did have a result of 54/46 it would be something like 390/260 in terms of seats.
It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .
Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
Is it because LP voters are secretly hoping that they will be saved from a Corbyn government by others but they can have the glow of having made a grand political gesture in voting for him?
I'm keeping an eye on GBPUSD. Surely that's where the big money is going to be made on insider info?
Certainly I made more from currencies than political betting in all of Trump, the referendum and 2017. The beauty is that the money is made quickly, if you are right.
What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages
Now the police just cut the chains.
With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
Right ... but isn't there some kind of "reasonable force" justification for removing them under arrest? Or is any injury forbidden? Or is it more a PR thing?
Get another bus. Empty this bus. Leave the bus with the glued protestors there until they've had enough.
Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
Good balanced portfolio with investment in companies worldwide. If you're really nervous buy some physical gold. If you're really, really nervous buy some physical gold held in a vault that isn't in the UK.
WillS.
Gold is more an insurance against global problems than just UK ones, though. If you think the UK is going down the tubes alone, is easier and more rewarding to buy interest bearing assets in other countries.
Comments
May was just meh ! I didn’t like her but she wasn’t really a Marmite character .
Johnson really brings out a visceral hatred in many of my Labour friends , and I expect Corbyn does the same for some other people .
He thinks the NHS is not great but does not blame the tories.
He will never vote tory but is sitting this election out.
We’ve seen these movements before . And surely someone might put out a false leak so that they can then bet at more favourable odds .
Ahhhhhh.
Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.
Conversely try a firm like Travelex
Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.
Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?
(Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers
Anyone feel the same?!
If the pound crashes against the euro it's still quite likely to crash to a point at which it is higher than its lowest low of the last 3 years, which you survived.
Just ensure that a good chunk of your shares are in euro stocks (and another good chunk in usd etc etc).
Not advice.
Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
WillS.
Just on canvassing and feed back, with the dreadful weather and dark nights I suspect there is a lot less canvassing going on in practical terms which may result in a lack of the same level of information we had in 2017 and promoting David Herdson's moment at this exact time in 2017
If circumstances change and the odds change rapidly, then there may be insufficient money left on the table at a given odds, so anybody wanting to bet might not find a match. That situation is called "lack of liquidity"
Now the police just cut the chains.
With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
WillS.
I note various journalistic tweets from yesterday have been deleted.
If you are worried about the short term impact, you don’t need to, just create the position with a spread bet.
But, as I said earlier, the downside of most of these measures to insure against a Corbyn win is that they will cost you if Corbyn doesn’t win. You need to put a value on your relief.
Or it’s Sean doing his hedging
If we really did have a result of 54/46 it would be something like 390/260 in terms of seats.
Get another bus. Empty this bus. Leave the bus with the glued protestors there until they've had enough.
Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics.