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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 polling and betting update

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  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    wow this looks seriously bad for the Tories
  • 1.42
  • There has to be a really bad poll for the Tories.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    odds for NOM dropping sharply
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    edited December 2019
    I can't see much to worry about in the Ashcroft poll. A 54/46% lead for the Conservatives would give them a huge lead over Labour in terms of seats. 52/48 gave a very hefty seat lead to the Brexit side.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Now 1.46 - huge move
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The thing about this election as opposed to May is the anti vote .

    May was just meh ! I didn’t like her but she wasn’t really a Marmite character .

    Johnson really brings out a visceral hatred in many of my Labour friends , and I expect Corbyn does the same for some other people .

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    OK what's driving the movement?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Byronic said:

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    What Labour says about the NHS is not the problem for the Conservatives.

    It is that in a winter election, the NHS is under strain, so lots of voters who have been to hospital will have their own experience of delays and trolleys in corridors and small boys on the floor, and so will their friends and family.

    Personal experience trumps tractor stats every time.
    Yes, I agree. One of the reasons I've got connniptions is that I've had family members say, in the last coupla days: Well actually the NHS really IS looking very shoddy, something has to be done, who will do that best...

    And this from non Labour voters.
    My brother WAS a life long Labour voter - he has seen shortcomings in the NHS through his and his wife's experiences plus those of my father.

    He thinks the NHS is not great but does not blame the tories.

    He will never vote tory but is sitting this election out.
  • Got to be a poll showing Tory lead non-existent or MRP hung parliament.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MRP must be showing hung parliament
  • 👀😱👀😱👀😱
  • Brom said:

    MRP must be showing hung parliament

    Or it's a bandwagon effect 🙏🏻
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Is there a Herdson moment coming up?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Lot of uncertainty - back to 1.41 - could be false rumour
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    MikeL said:

    Now 1.46 - huge move

    WTF.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Oh no more Betting gate!

    We’ve seen these movements before . And surely someone might put out a false leak so that they can then bet at more favourable odds .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Steady!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Back to 1.41 - wtf??
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    MRP must be showing hung parliament

    Or it's a bandwagon effect 🙏🏻
    Hmm, this is the biggest movement we've seen. something is up.
  • I'm laying a hung parliament.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    MikeL said:

    Lot of uncertainty - back to 1.41 - could be false rumour

    Not betting this election.

    Ahhhhhh.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
    A lot of Tory ads featuring Ashworth I would guess.
  • All the liquidity has gone out of the market too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Stabilised at 1.40
  • Where has all the money in that market gone. There was £10ks in there, now we are back to a £100s.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Hhhmm panic over by the look of things. Some city boys playing silly buggars?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Dear absolute fucking gods, really? I did an article about this! Google "Chronicle of a bet foretold part 2"

    Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.

    Conversely try a firm like Travelex

    Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.

    Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?

    (Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    All the liquidity has gone out of the market too.

    Sorry to be a bit thick . Can you possibly explain what you mean . Thanks .
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Nothing drastic, just the usual stuff of a well-diversified portfolio with a high proportion of investments which are not linked to the UK economy, including a largish chunk domiciled abroad, and maximising use of pensions and ISAs. The latter point is on the basis that those wouldn't be the first targets: they are much more likely to restrict new investment well before it gets to the point that they start having to raid existing ones, and I wouldn't expect a Corbyn-led government to last very long.

    You can only mitigate risk, you can't eliminate it.
    There are a number of small businesses that, having spent large parts of 2019 on 'No Deal' planning, have oven-ready plans to mitigate the UK becoming business-unfriendly under a Corbynomic regime, whether in or out of the EU.
  • I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    MikeL said:

    Stabilised at 1.40

    Nothing has changed?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Large sums of cash anything are pretty unuseful things to have, unless you are about to complete on a villa in Cap Ferrat.

    If the pound crashes against the euro it's still quite likely to crash to a point at which it is higher than its lowest low of the last 3 years, which you survived.

    Just ensure that a good chunk of your shares are in euro stocks (and another good chunk in usd etc etc).

    Not advice.
  • I just sense that Labour have far more people on the ground, yet again, than the Tories, not sure why this is so, other than that Labour is far more successful in attracting the younger voters.
    Half expecting that the Tories will now struggle to win an overall majority, suspect they are heading for 335 seats at best and maybe a 10-20 majority or thereabouts, which will make their task difficult if they have any meaningful number of rebels. Poor, low key campaign by the Blue Team, despite having far and away more money to spend than their rivals. They've never succeeded in replacing Margaret Thatcher's Saatchi & Saatchi, Tim Bell, etc.

    If posters on here are representative then it seems that many of the people who organised Tory campaigns at the constituency level previously are not Johnson fans.
  • RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Stabilised at 1.40

    Nothing has changed?
    There was a fake yougov poll last night
  • MikeL said:

    Stabilised at 1.40

    So nothing happened?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    Yes I do. If it's a bad poll tonight for the Tories......
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    For me that is a sure fire sign that Labour have improved since the last MRP.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    Nope - The size of the majority is the only thing in question I think
  • nico67 said:

    All the liquidity has gone out of the market too.

    Sorry to be a bit thick . Can you possibly explain what you mean . Thanks .
    The amount of money available to back or lay at the different prices. Until about 10 mins ago, each "level" had £1000s available if you wanted to back or lay a particular price. Now we are taking £20 at some prices.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Back to 1.37
  • Where has all the money in that market gone. There was £10ks in there, now we are back to a £100s.

    It IS possible to cancel Betfair Exchange Back/Lay bets before they are actually matched.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Brom said:

    For me that is a sure fire sign that Labour have improved since the last MRP.

    Could be someone cashing out?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    Henrietta said:


    What I remember from 2017 when the exit poll was announced was a row of five hexagons....

    There's a whole generation of TV executives brought up on Blockbusters

    Don't you mean Blackbusters?
    I had to google it. Oh for the days of EdGaffes,
  • I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    It is often good to get out of the bubble for a wee while
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Well that was bizarre. In the space of 20 minutes NOM went from 4.00 to 3.50 and now back to 4.00.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited December 2019
    PB Tories reaching the living on coffee and Valium phase of the election I see? :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,456
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    Well that was bizarre. In the space of 20 minutes NOM went from 4.00 to 3.50 and now back to 4.00.

    Clearly somebody with fairly deep pockets thought they had insider info.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
  • RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    I only have one mode....clearly proves I am not a PB Tory.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.

    We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.

    Then how do you explain that the group in the population that uses the NHS the most votes solid Tory?
    They are not obligate users?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...
  • RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    It was ever thus going right back to 2004 when the site was founded.
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    Jason said:

    Hhhmm panic over by the look of things. Some city boys playing silly buggars?

    Given the betting market's performance list time around, I think it's more than a little unwise to give in to panic when the odds move a fraction.

    WillS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Suspicious!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    I notice that the Bozo/Neil matter had the most cut through of any specific recent election story, beaten only by the generic lying politicians.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    When is it made public ?
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
  • nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    Yes. It is amusing

    Just on canvassing and feed back, with the dreadful weather and dark nights I suspect there is a lot less canvassing going on in practical terms which may result in a lack of the same level of information we had in 2017 and promoting David Herdson's moment at this exact time in 2017
  • Where has all the money in that market gone. There was £10ks in there, now we are back to a £100s.

    It IS possible to cancel Betfair Exchange Back/Lay bets before they are actually matched.
    Yes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    Very funny ! As opposed to Labour supporters like me who have moved on from accepting the inevitable and have zero expectations.

  • Jason said:

    Well that was bizarre. In the space of 20 minutes NOM went from 4.00 to 3.50 and now back to 4.00.

    Clearly somebody with fairly deep pockets thought they had insider info.
    Was anything actually traded or is it that a big player has pulled his money out?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    It is often good to get out of the bubble for a wee while
    That's just a sign of your age :smiley:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    It was ever thus going right back to 2004 when the site was founded.
    PB Tories didn't have anything to be smug about until December 2005? ;)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited December 2019
    nico67 said:

    All the liquidity has gone out of the market too.

    Sorry to be a bit thick . Can you possibly explain what you mean . Thanks .
    Most people who bet on here use betting exchanges like Betfair to bet (wusses). Betting exchanges don't use their own money, they bring gamblers together. One gambler bets that something will not happen and puts his money on the table. Another gambler bets that something will happen and puts his money on the table. Each state their odds. If the odds match, the two are bought together, the bet is matched, and the money is taken off the table until the bet is resolved. The money remaining on the table is called "liquidity"

    If circumstances change and the odds change rapidly, then there may be insufficient money left on the table at a given odds, so anybody wanting to bet might not find a match. That situation is called "lack of liquidity"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    I'm keeping an eye on GBPUSD. Surely that's where the big money is going to be made on insider info?
  • I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    It is often good to get out of the bubble for a wee while
    I've now stopped taking my phone up to the bedroom at night. I found myself waking for a call of nature then checking out Betfair at 3am
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ridaligo said:

    What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
    Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages

    Now the police just cut the chains.

    With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Yougov have said they're still crunching the numbers. Ignore.
  • viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Dear absolute fucking gods, really? I did an article about this! Google "Chronicle of a bet foretold part 2"

    Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.

    Conversely try a firm like Travelex

    Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.

    Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?

    (Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
    Ask your bank and you might be paying 5% for the round trip! Still cheaper than finding a Nigerian prince who might be able to help you.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Sean_F said:

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Yougov have said they're still crunching the numbers. Ignore.
    When is it out?
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    Byronic said:



    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?

    Good balanced portfolio with investment in companies worldwide. If you're really nervous buy some physical gold. If you're really, really nervous buy some physical gold held in a vault that isn't in the UK.

    WillS.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Dear absolute fucking gods, really? I did an article about this! Google "Chronicle of a bet foretold part 2"

    Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.

    Conversely try a firm like Travelex

    Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.

    Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?

    (Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
    Ask your bank and you might be paying 5% for the round trip! Still cheaper than finding a Nigerian prince who might be able to help you.
    That's why I immediately said Revolut - all transfers are at the bank interchange rate.
  • nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    Is it because LP voters are secretly hoping that they will be saved from a Corbyn government by others but they can have the glow of having made a grand political gesture in voting for him?
  • Sean_F said:

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Yougov have said they're still crunching the numbers. Ignore.
    Maybe that was what caused the move.
  • I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    Yes. It is amusing

    Just on canvassing and feed back, with the dreadful weather and dark nights I suspect there is a lot less canvassing going on in practical terms which may result in a lack of the same level of information we had in 2017 and promoting David Herdson's moment at this exact time in 2017
    The thing with canvassing is I think it’s not always a great indicator. I remember hearing all about the wonderful canvassing by pro Scottish indy canvassers . That went well ! Lol
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Gabs3 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Yougov have said they're still crunching the numbers. Ignore.
    When is it out?
    10pm.... 4 hours and thirty minutes!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
    The Guardian is scraping the bottom of the barrel on the NHS, so desperately, the barrel has complained to OFCOM. This is their MAIN headline at the moment:



    "'I was hacked,' says woman whose account claimed hospital boy photo was staged"

    I kid you not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy

    It wouldn't have made Labourlist six months ago.
    Probably in reaction to Allison Pearson et al going big on the lies yesterday. (And it seems only fair to the poor hacked woman to give the rebuttal a similar prominence.)

    I note various journalistic tweets from yesterday have been deleted.

  • Charles said:

    I really feel I need to remove myself from pb, Betfair odds and all news.... getting proper anxious.

    Probably watch a movie tonight with a couple of beers

    Anyone feel the same?!

    It is often good to get out of the bubble for a wee while
    That's just a sign of your age :smiley:
    Hopefully a way of remaining sane as well
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Jason said:

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermine the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.

    I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.

    The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
    It is remarkable how many PB’ers seem to think that people who have applied for a postal vote and sent it back early are likely to be people who otherwise might have changed their mind.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    ridaligo said:

    What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
    I'd suggest leaving them all outside stuck to the bus overnight. I wonder whether they'd welcome a bit of global warming then?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Sean_F said:

    Fwiw I saw a now-deleted tweet from Christian Calgie from Guido saying he didn't like the latest MRP...

    Yougov have said they're still crunching the numbers. Ignore.
    Yes, what I mean is it's possible that it set off the movement.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!

    Wasn't that, it was such a sudden movement reminiscent of 2017. However the one positive for the Tories is whoever was pushing the price out obviously doesn't fancy doing it anymore.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Go to World First, open an account, then they will convert your cash into euros. They are also regulated by the FCA unlike many other currency brokers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019

    Are you channelling your inner SeanT ?
    He'd be demanding to know their religion first if he was channelling SeanT.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Dear absolute fucking gods, really? I did an article about this! Google "Chronicle of a bet foretold part 2"

    Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.

    Conversely try a firm like Travelex

    Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.

    Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?

    (Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
    Ask your bank and you might be paying 5% for the round trip! Still cheaper than finding a Nigerian prince who might be able to help you.
    No, I get emails from them every couple of days or so asking me to bank a couple of million dollars for them!
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174
    Charles said:

    ridaligo said:

    What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
    Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages

    Now the police just cut the chains.

    With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
    Right ... but isn't there some kind of "reasonable force" justification for removing them under arrest? Or is any injury forbidden? Or is it more a PR thing?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?

    If you are worried about the short term impact, you don’t need to, just create the position with a spread bet.

    But, as I said earlier, the downside of most of these measures to insure against a Corbyn win is that they will cost you if Corbyn doesn’t win. You need to put a value on your relief.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    OK what's driving the movement?

    People betting on a rerun of 2017

    Or it’s Sean doing his hedging
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    I think the big moves on the Betfair Tory Maj market are down to the disappointing figures (from the Blue Team's viewpoint) in the Ashcroft poll, pure and simple ... that's three poor polling results in the last 24 hours ... not good!

    The Ashcroft poll points to a big Conservative win.

    If we really did have a result of 54/46 it would be something like 390/260 in terms of seats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    It was ever thus going right back to 2004 when the site was founded.
    You missed out party line spewing mode, which was on full display last night.
  • nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    Is it because LP voters are secretly hoping that they will be saved from a Corbyn government by others but they can have the glow of having made a grand political gesture in voting for him?
    QTWTAIN.
  • could it be to do with the fake You Gov poll that was on Twitter earlier showing a 3% Con lead
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    Dear absolute fucking gods, really? I did an article about this! Google "Chronicle of a bet foretold part 2"

    Go to your bank. Ask them if they do a foreign currency account. If they do, open one up. Move sterling into it. Job done, have lollypop.

    Conversely try a firm like Travelex

    Others on here swear by an app called "Revolut", but I am a determined late adopter and eschew such.

    Oh, try reading an article occasionally, yes?

    (Hits head repeatedly upon desk)
    I would not use Revolut. Bloody awful back office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    I'm keeping an eye on GBPUSD. Surely that's where the big money is going to be made on insider info?

    Certainly I made more from currencies than political betting in all of Trump, the referendum and 2017. The beauty is that the money is made quickly, if you are right.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ridaligo said:

    Charles said:

    ridaligo said:

    What is the deal with protesters gluing themselves to things? This seems to be a relatively new tactic. Presumably the police can't just rip them off whatever they are glued to? Can any PB legal beagles shed any light on why this is a thing?
    Protesters have been chaining themselves for ages

    Now the police just cut the chains.

    With glue they need to use solvents - which involves potential allergies, injury, etc...
    Right ... but isn't there some kind of "reasonable force" justification for removing them under arrest? Or is any injury forbidden? Or is it more a PR thing?

    Get another bus. Empty this bus. Leave the bus with the glued protestors there until they've had enough.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    1.36 to 1.46 is a change from 72% to 68%.

    Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    wills66 said:

    Byronic said:



    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?

    Good balanced portfolio with investment in companies worldwide. If you're really nervous buy some physical gold. If you're really, really nervous buy some physical gold held in a vault that isn't in the UK.

    WillS.
    Gold is more an insurance against global problems than just UK ones, though. If you think the UK is going down the tubes alone, is easier and more rewarding to buy interest bearing assets in other countries.
This discussion has been closed.