Is Allison Pearson at the Telegraph going to apologise for calling the floor photo "100% fake"? Because this really is a disgusting development. Regardless of your politics, surely sane people can agree that we don't want the growth of a "Sandy Hook truther"-type [*] culture?
(*) The "belief" that the Sandy Hook massacre was "fake", staged by "crisis actors".
Apparently she was going to publish the proof of the fakery tomorrow, but I doubt it will ever see the light of day. She was just one of Boris's little soldiers in a flap.
The telegraph wont want it dominating the last day unless she has a recording of the mother saying she faked it! (Which obviously she hasnt)
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
You're a star!
Will the URL you posted earlier still be valid on the night?
Yes it should be. If anything changes, obviously I will post the update.
Only concern now is that the BBC decide to radically change their place holder pages or are ridiculously slow updating them.
Any chance of adding a featurelet which will allow you to add in results manually if they are slow?
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Thank you for this. Election night is going to be epic with these kinds of brilliant contributions.
Not if the bong goes and Huw says the exit poll predicts Jezza largest party....
Labour landslide.
If that is the case, the live tracker won't be running. The only thing running will be me, to the airport!!!!
I was talking about the quality of analysis, rather than the result. If you can fix that too, we will no doubt all be eternally grateful!
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I think my betting strategy is now to sell the FTSE100. - Tory majority - GBP rises - FTSE sinks - Any other result - FTSE sinks
I suppose it's plausible that GBP sinking in the case of NOM could cause a rise that outweighs the trashing of utility stocks. Alternatively a small Tory majority might not affect GBP enough to matter, and the FTSE could still rise. Oh well. (Not financial advice)
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
You're a star!
Will the URL you posted earlier still be valid on the night?
Yes it should be. If anything changes, obviously I will post the update.
Only concern now is that the BBC decide to radically change their place holder pages or are ridiculously slow updating them.
Any chance of adding a featurelet which will allow you to add in results manually if they are slow?
I can override it at my end if required. From memory the BBC are pretty good at keeping up to date, albeit a bit slower than Sky.
Simple answer yes. Basically I have a script scarping the data and another that sits there waiting for new seat data to be created in a certain location. If I make my own file by hand and stick it in there, the automated update of the spreadsheets will still fire.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
Was the SPAD called Wilfried Zaha? The slightest touch and metaphorically speaking he goes down.
He didn't go down at all. He didn't really break step. He just looked, startled, at the source of the contact.
If that really was the incident it was a ridiculous level of spin from the Tories and shameful of the media to swallow it without verification.
Fog of war. No one - literally - was hurt.
If you notice, I specifically said in my earlier reply to your post, 'metaphorically speaking'. In all fairness to the guy CCHQ took the tumble on his behalf.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
Sean can't you just be straight. We get it. You're worried about Camden house prices and your ability to guzzle vast quantities of Chateau Petrus and indulge with eighteen year old Thai girls.
I think the dangers of a Boris Brexit are far greater than a 5 yr Corbyn-SNP-LD coalition Government and I know many people feel the same as me, including a lifelong Conservative voting barrister I know.
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
Yes, indeed, I'm inclined that way myself. But not, please not, a revolution with anti-semitism already baked in to the leading party.
If it weren't for that, I'd be really very interested to see how communism would work in a population so accustomed to taking so much for granted.
Being sent to Scotland to dig a canal with our bare hands would certainly be a shock.
If Corbyn was advocating leave the EU and Johnson was for remain. I'd have to vote Tory but if it were Milliband instead of Corbyn I might just allow myself to vote Labour. I can see how difficult it must be for some remainer Tories and Labour leavers. It's why I'm not convinced Northern Labour voters really are going to switch en masse.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
Sean can't you just be straight. We get it. You're worried about Camden house prices and your ability to guzzle vast quantities of Chateau Petrus and indulge with eighteen year old Thai girls.
I think the dangers of a Boris Brexit are far greater than a 5 yr Corbyn-SNP-LD coalition Government and I know many people feel the same as me, including a lifelong Conservative voting barrister I know.
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
Enough time to sell up and head somewhere that won't elect a Marxist...
There is something quite British humour about that Boris driving a JCB through a wall...the sort of Basil Fawlty smashing his car with a branch. I imagine a lot of people will chuckle at it, like they did with Boris on the zipwire.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
(FPT) When was the last time a party led by a PM with no previous GE wins and no previous majority gained a majority in a GE?
When was the last time someone became PM mid parliament with no majority?
James Callaghan?
I'm probably wrong, but I thought he had a majority when he became PM, but lost it soon after.
Edit: I was wrong. They lost the majority shortly before.
I think James Callaghan did have a majority when he kissed hands on 5 April 1976. Brian O'Malley died the next day and John Stonehouse resigned from the party the day after that
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2:ill show a majority of around 30 later today.
You oly to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
Sean can't you just be straight. We get it. You're worried about Camden house prices and your ability to guzzle vast quantities of Chateau Petrus and indulge with eighteen year old Thai girls.
I think the dangers of a Boris Brexit are far greater than a 5 yr Corbyn-SNP-LD coalition Government and I know many people feel the same as me, including a lifelong Conservative voting barrister I know.
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
I'm not Sean. He was made of FAR sturdier stuff than me. And he was a damn good man to have in a foxhole. Also very handsome and famously well hung, I believe. I am an effete and quivering bolus of ectoplasm, by contrast
That said, I welcome your prediction. I'd be quite happy to be governed by a decent Labour leader down the line, FFS I would probably VOTE for one, the Tories do not deserve endless hegemony - no one does - and they need a period of powerlessness to refresh and rethink. And the nation needs to be rebalanced towards the young, and away from the richer and the older.
Right now, tho, I just want to avoid communism and civil war, so I hope Corbyn is totally and utterly defeated.
(FPT) When was the last time a party led by a PM with no previous GE wins and no previous majority gained a majority in a GE?
When was the last time someone became PM mid parliament with no majority?
James Callaghan?
I'm probably wrong, but I thought he had a majority when he became PM, but lost it soon after.
Edit: I was wrong. They lost the majority shortly before.
I think James Callaghan did have a majority when he kissed hands on 5 April 1976. Brian O'Malley died the next day and John Stonehouse resigned from the party the day after that
Then Henry Campbell-bannerman is the only man to have done it
My instinct watching this tells me: "Boris is going to win, isn't he?" twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1204412941774143488
You have to give credit to the Kiwi Shitsters, they know how to do it.
It's something out of old Top Gear circa 2008. You could almost imagine Jeremy Clarkson saying "POWEEERRR".
Corbyn would have chained himself to the JCB to save the wall.
Obviously this is based on a lot of the feedback we saw in the Ashcroft focus groups, Boris's fun side is a strength that people warm to while Corbyn is too cold and serious. I suppose with Christmas round the corner this is a theme they are keen to riff on.
In other anecfactuals ... two lifelong tories in my family just separately told me they're voting LibDem. Decisions made in the last 24 hrs.
One is an 83 yr old in East Anglia. Never voted anything other than tory before but he's a remainer and hates the idea of a Boris brexit.
The other, my brother has confirmed he's voting LD in a Con-LD marginal in west London. First time he hasn't voted tory.
You can tell me this means nothing, which indeed it may not, but I promise it's true - two separate messages today.
The LDs are also standing with “Liberal Democrat - to stop Brexit” on the ballot paper, intended for the 7% or so who make their mind up only when looking at it.
Re the YouGov MRP. Surely this has to be based on the figures calculated by them at or around the time of the Welsh Barometer poll,perhaps with last minute adjustments? We know that was consistent with a six per cent swing to the Tories so roughly equating to a 14% lead on UNS .I can't see they could change that model significantly could they?
I don't think a Corbyn govt is feasible. Let's say he wins 245 seats against 324 for the Tories. That'd be a good result for him, but he'd be 80 seats behind the Tories (and probs 7-8% in the polls) desperately trying to form a govt when basically NOBODY likes him (apart from students who don't know shit from dirty clay and subscribers to the Morning Star).
Would the SNP really join him in a minority govt? I doubt it.
My view is, for the CONs, that 320 is the minimum they can get and still form a government without help. Technically, assuming its 7 Sinn Fein and 1 speaker, that leaves 322 against, but I reckon there will be enough absentions and illnesses for the Conservatives to blunder along for a few months/years.
However, below 320 and things get dicey. Literally seat by seat dicey. They could *probably* manage on 319, but that's 323 against. 318? 324 against and things look tough. As they go lower and lower, they'll struggle to manage without a partner/help. The DUP aren't going to help them, are they? Below 310 and that's probably game over without either the DUP or Lib Dems.
Of course, I don't think we'll be there. CON >340 is my guess. Not much more than 340, but enough.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I have considered that and am hedging accordingly
Lol x 2 then you might as well not bother at all.
My hedging consists of doing absolutely nothing until the YouGov MRP, apart from imbibing alcohol
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
Enough time to sell up and head somewhere that won't elect a Marxist...
I may be wrong but I think if Corbyn fails this time that's the end of Marxism Redux over here. Labour will be dragged back to the centre.
I may be wrong but I think if Corbyn fails this time that's the end of Marxism Redux over here. Labour will be dragged back to the centre.
Don't tell the membership.....I honestly can't see Maomentum and all the "alternative" media that has grown up around it just going away. If nothing else, they have their own nicely funded industry now.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
Enough time to sell up and head somewhere that won't elect a Marxist...
I may be wrong but I think if Corbyn fails this time that's the end of Marxism Redux over here. Labour will be dragged back to the centre.
There are several gradations of left in Labour - Starmer is the not the same centre as 1997-2010, and he would be one of the only plausible more centrist candidates.
Are the media not been briefed by YouGov this time around? Last time, by this time in the afternoon, we were getting tweets with photos of slides shown in the briefing.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Fine, but don't delude yourself - if Corbyn is PM, he, and no one else, will have direct control over the use of our nuclear weapons. There is no "somebody else" apart from the Prime Minister.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I have considered that and am hedging accordingly
Lol x 2 then you might as well not bother at all.
My hedging consists of doing absolutely nothing until the YouGov MRP, apart from imbibing alcohol
As I said below I suspect this MRP will be based on a big Tory lead compatible with the Welsh Barometer poll.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?
This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
Enough time to sell up and head somewhere that won't elect a Marxist...
I may be wrong but I think if Corbyn fails this time that's the end of Marxism Redux over here. Labour will be dragged back to the centre.
Goodness, I hope you're right. If Labour were to reform itself and become a popular democratic left alternative then nobody would be happier than me.
Personally I'm worried that they'll swing even further the other way out of pique.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Good man.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
I’m trying to psychologically prepare myself for the worst possible BONG!
How about...
Tories - 288 seats Labour - 264 seats LDs - 32 seats SNP - 46 seats Others - 20 seats
What’s your worst “Bong!” ?
Please precede all posts with: BONG!
My worst bong is the one I expect to happen.
But then as a LibDem I am already prepared, having been conditioned for general election disappointment since watching my first aged just eleven and not being able to understand how getting nearly a quarter of people voting for them could not deliver the Liberals more than a tiny few seats. At least I kept my promise never to vote for the parties that prop up such a corrupt system.
My favourite outcome is a LibDem/Remain alliance breakthrough. I am pretty confident at being disappointed there.
My second favourite is a balanced parliament with at least a chance of Brexit going back to the people. I am now reasonably confident of being disappointed with that one, too.
My third favourite would be to see the Labour Party so catastrophically destroyed that there might be some chance of more sensible non-Tory politics emerging from the ruins. A week or so back I thought this might be in with a chance, but now I am expecting disappointment with what was a miserable third choice anyway.
All that is left is the most disappointing of all - a workable Tory majority. So that’s my prediction.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Good man.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
Labour MPs are spineless cowards and have shown themselves to be so on every occasion. If Corbyn becomes PM, they'll vote through whatever far-left shite he pleases, on pain of enforcement action from a rampant Momentum.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
You don't have to vote for either, or at all. I'll be voting for an independent candidate closer to my views, if I didn't have that I wasn't going to vote this time.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Good man.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
Labour MPs are spineless cowards and have shown themselves to be so on every occasion. If Corbyn becomes PM, they'll vote through whatever far-left shite he pleases, on pain of enforcement action from a rampant Momentum.
As I pointed out the other day, few people even speak of the "coalition" era any more, so effective were the Tories at dominating the Lib Dems. Why would this time round be any different?
Oh and by the way, I've always expected CCHQ to put out a late-wobble story 24-36 hours before polls open to scare everyone with the possibility of a Corbyn win.
I'm not suggesting Byronic you're wrong but it would be exactly in keeping with Cummings' strategy to try and frighten everyone.
There is, any way, absolutely no chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning.
As I said below I suspect this MRP will be based on a big Tory lead compatible with the Welsh Barometer poll.
Me too. I find anything below a 9% lead unlikely given that the Welsh barometer is better than the one released just below the first MRP. If it reflects the national trend it could even be a 12-13% lead.
I’m trying to psychologically prepare myself for the worst possible BONG!
How about...
Tories - 288 seats Labour - 264 seats LDs - 32 seats SNP - 46 seats Others - 20 seats
What’s your worst “Bong!” ?
Please precede all posts with: BONG!
My worst bong is the one I expect to happen.
But then as a LibDem I am already prepared, having been conditioned for general election disappointment since watching my first aged just eleven and not being able to understand how getting nearly a quarter of people voting for them could not deliver the Liberals more than a tiny few seats. At least I kept my promise never to vote for the parties that prop up such a corrupt system.
My favourite outcome is a LibDem/Remain alliance breakthrough. I am pretty confident at being disappointed there.
My second favourite is a balanced parliament with at least a chance of Brexit going back to the people. I am now reasonably confident of being disappointed with that one, too.
My third favourite would be to see the Labour Party so catastrophically destroyed that there might be some chance of more sensible non-Tory politics emerging from the ruins. A week or so back I thought this might be in with a chance, but now I am expecting disappointment with what was a miserable third choice anyway.
All that is left is the most disappointing of all - a workable Tory majority. So that’s my prediction.
C’mon.
Bong! me a number.
This is about psychological preparation for the exit poll so we don’t all suffer heart palpitations from 8pm onwards on Thursday night.
As I said below I suspect this MRP will be based on a big Tory lead compatible with the Welsh Barometer poll.
Me too. I find anything below a 9% lead unlikely given that the Welsh barometer is better than the one released just below the first MRP. If it reflects the national trend it could even be a 12-13% lead.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
No chance.
If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I have considered that and am hedging accordingly
Lol x 2 then you might as well not bother at all.
My hedging consists of doing absolutely nothing until the YouGov MRP, apart from imbibing alcohol
You could keep yourself busy by counting out Mr Glenn’s winnings.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Good man.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
If the same surprise happens this election as it did last election and the Cons lose another 20 seats then Corbyn will PM. It's not likely but everyone thought it wouldn't happen last time. Until I see the exit poll I'll remain concerned!
I’m trying to psychologically prepare myself for the worst possible BONG!
How about...
Tories - 288 seats Labour - 264 seats LDs - 32 seats SNP - 46 seats Others - 20 seats
What’s your worst “Bong!” ?
Please precede all posts with: BONG!
My worst bong is the one I expect to happen.
But then as a LibDem I am already prepared, having been conditioned for general election disappointment since watching my first aged just eleven and not being able to understand how getting nearly a quarter of people voting for them could not deliver the Liberals more than a tiny few seats. At least I kept my promise never to vote for the parties that prop up such a corrupt system.
My favourite outcome is a LibDem/Remain alliance breakthrough. I am pretty confident at being disappointed there.
My second favourite is a balanced parliament with at least a chance of Brexit going back to the people. I am now reasonably confident of being disappointed with that one, too.
My third favourite would be to see the Labour Party so catastrophically destroyed that there might be some chance of more sensible non-Tory politics emerging from the ruins. A week or so back I thought this might be in with a chance, but now I am expecting disappointment with what was a miserable third choice anyway.
All that is left is the most disappointing of all - a workable Tory majority. So that’s my prediction.
C’mon.
Bong! me a number.
This is about psychological preparation for the exit poll so we don’t all suffer heart palpitations from 8pm onwards on Thursday night.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
No chance.
If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.
How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Good man.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
Labour MPs are spineless cowards and have shown themselves to be so on every occasion. If Corbyn becomes PM, they'll vote through whatever far-left shite he pleases, on pain of enforcement action from a rampant Momentum.
Unlike all those Tory MPs who vowed that Bozo would never be their leader?
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?
This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
Not everybody has enormous financial assets that they are desperate to protect, not everybody believes they have to help you protect those assets. A lot of people believe that there is much wrong with UK society and something needs to be done. A few people like me can’t vote for either of the lying bastards who are both intent on wrecking the UK in their own way. This will probably be my last vote having been out of the UK for 11 years now but I check with my children who think like me as it is their future. I hope all the 65+ Tory stalwarts ask their children what they would like them to do on their behalf rather than arrogantly thinking that older is wiser. But they won’t because they know best.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
No chance.
If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.
How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
He won’t need to, it’ll be imposed by Cooper-Benn-Letwin 3.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda.
You see, I don't believe this. MPs are sneaky sods, interested only in their careers. Labour MPs would vote for Corbyn to be PM and LD/SNP MPs would comply if given enough goodies.
From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
No chance.
If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.
How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
So will the Tories though. They will get no-confidenced and we`ll be down GE highway again. Correct?
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda.
You see, I don't believe this. MPs are sneaky sods, interested only in their careers. Labour MPs would vote for Corbyn to be PM and LD/SNP MPs would comply if given enough goodies.
From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.
WillS.
Honestly, a moderate Labour MP is a good friend. They would no way permit Corbyn's full agenda.
Anyway it ain't gonna happen.
The most Labour can possibly hope for now is that the tories fall just short of a majority.
I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.
Great post. Yes we have to stop someone who swiped a phone when ambushed by a journalist from getting into No.10 or else we are all doomed. Thank goodness we have a fantastic alternative who can assume power in his stead and lead us from strength to strength.
Comments
- Tory majority - GBP rises - FTSE sinks
- Any other result - FTSE sinks
I suppose it's plausible that GBP sinking in the case of NOM could cause a rise that outweighs the trashing of utility stocks. Alternatively a small Tory majority might not affect GBP enough to matter, and the FTSE could still rise. Oh well.
(Not financial advice)
Simple answer yes. Basically I have a script scarping the data and another that sits there waiting for new seat data to be created in a certain location. If I make my own file by hand and stick it in there, the automated update of the spreadsheets will still fire.
I think the dangers of a Boris Brexit are far greater than a 5 yr Corbyn-SNP-LD coalition Government and I know many people feel the same as me, including a lifelong Conservative voting barrister I know.
You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
I'd have to vote Tory but if it were Milliband instead of Corbyn I might just allow myself to vote Labour.
I can see how difficult it must be for some remainer Tories and Labour leavers.
It's why I'm not convinced Northern Labour voters really are going to switch en masse.
https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1204412941774143488
How about...
Tories - 288 seats
Labour - 264 seats
LDs - 32 seats
SNP - 46 seats
Others - 20 seats
What’s your worst “Bong!” ?
Please precede all posts with: BONG!
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1204412868877111296
https://order-order.com/2019/12/10/corbynistas-call-ashworth-sacked/
That said, I welcome your prediction. I'd be quite happy to be governed by a decent Labour leader down the line, FFS I would probably VOTE for one, the Tories do not deserve endless hegemony - no one does - and they need a period of powerlessness to refresh and rethink. And the nation needs to be rebalanced towards the young, and away from the richer and the older.
Right now, tho, I just want to avoid communism and civil war, so I hope Corbyn is totally and utterly defeated.
You could almost imagine Jeremy Clarkson saying "POWEEERRR".
One is an 83 yr old in East Anglia. Never voted anything other than tory before but he's a remainer and hates the idea of a Boris brexit.
The other, my brother has confirmed he's voting LD in a Con-LD marginal in west London. First time he hasn't voted tory.
You can tell me this means nothing, which indeed it may not, but I promise it's true - two separate messages today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8AwizkBarM
Green - 420
Obviously this is based on a lot of the feedback we saw in the Ashcroft focus groups, Boris's fun side is a strength that people warm to while Corbyn is too cold and serious. I suppose with Christmas round the corner this is a theme they are keen to riff on.
However, below 320 and things get dicey. Literally seat by seat dicey. They could *probably* manage on 319, but that's 323 against.
318? 324 against and things look tough.
As they go lower and lower, they'll struggle to manage without a partner/help. The DUP aren't going to help them, are they?
Below 310 and that's probably game over without either the DUP or Lib Dems.
Of course, I don't think we'll be there. CON >340 is my guess. Not much more than 340, but enough.
All the indies 200 plus
The rest - some
It's getting quite funny that none of us has yet pinned down for certain whether or not Labour had a majority when James Callaghan became PM.
"WHO DARES WINS"
WE dare!
WE will WIN!!
Obviously, I meant to say that they lost the majority shortly after.
This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
Personally I'm worried that they'll swing even further the other way out of pique.
There are lots like you.
And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda
You're absolutely right. We HAVE to stop Johnson at all costs. That's our first priority and to vote accordingly.
Someone of a suspicious mind might suspect a covert LibDem mailshot, but it does say “printed on behalf of The Brexit Party”!
(Nob 😉)
But then as a LibDem I am already prepared, having been conditioned for general election disappointment since watching my first aged just eleven and not being able to understand how getting nearly a quarter of people voting for them could not deliver the Liberals more than a tiny few seats. At least I kept my promise never to vote for the parties that prop up such a corrupt system.
My favourite outcome is a LibDem/Remain alliance breakthrough. I am pretty confident at being disappointed there.
My second favourite is a balanced parliament with at least a chance of Brexit going back to the people. I am now reasonably confident of being disappointed with that one, too.
My third favourite would be to see the Labour Party so catastrophically destroyed that there might be some chance of more sensible non-Tory politics emerging from the ruins. A week or so back I thought this might be in with a chance, but now I am expecting disappointment with what was a miserable third choice anyway.
All that is left is the most disappointing of all - a workable Tory majority. So that’s my prediction.
I'm not suggesting Byronic you're wrong but it would be exactly in keeping with Cummings' strategy to try and frighten everyone.
There is, any way, absolutely no chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning.
Bong! me a number.
This is about psychological preparation for the exit poll so we don’t all suffer heart palpitations from 8pm onwards on Thursday night.
six and a half.....
Tories: 317
Labour: 262
LibDem: 12
SNP: 35
Others: 30
;-)
WillS.
If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.
Labour: 650
Others: Zip
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1204419653381918720?s=20
From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.
WillS.
Brexit:
Conservatives 38%
Lib Dems 14%
Labour 13%
NHS:
Labour 36%
Conservatives 23%
Don't know 19%
Economy:
Conservatives 50%
Labour 17%
Don't know 11%
Opinium 4-6 Dec
#GE2019
Anyway it ain't gonna happen.
The most Labour can possibly hope for now is that the tories fall just short of a majority.