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Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ

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TheScreamingEagles

First.

eek

First unlike probably everyone on Thursday night..

NorthCadboll

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

HYUFD

Awaiting Yougov MRP

HYUFD

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

squareroot2

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

RobD

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Stocky

HYUFD said:

Awaiting Yougov MRP

What time`s it due? RobD?

Streeter

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?

MikeSmithson

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

Beibheirli_C

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?

RobD

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Awaiting Yougov MRP

What time`s it due? RobD?

I thought it was 10pm, but the more I say it, the more i wonder if it is actually at 10!

OnlyLivingBoy

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

Beibheirli_C

eek said:

First unlike probably everyone on Thursday night..

We can only hope.

HYUFD

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

He is a Shadow Cabinet Minister

RobC

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

RobD

Beibheirli_C said:

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?

Not enough PBers on panels!

Stocky

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

RobD

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?

Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.

brokenwheel

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Honestly i'm surprised we ever see any changes in the polls since they seem to only ask political activists.

SandyRentool

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

bigjohnowls

Yorkshire post still debunking Tory lies from non existent nurse.

The story would have moved on had they not tried to lie their way out of it

Instead it's still headline news on Look North at least.

BREAKING: Sheree Jenner-Hepburn claims she was hacked. Knows not a soul in Leeds, she says. So, that 'good friend' that was used to debunk our story was - according to her - a fabrication.

NorthernPowerhouse

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

We live in a parliamentary democracy and a majority of 1 is mandate.

nova

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

I think most people would agree that Boris won't have difficulty with that stretch.

wooliedyed

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

How? The survey was conducted before the story broke

RobD

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....

DavidL

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I think that there is a very strong likelihood that they will come out of this election with fewer MPs than they went into it with but I still expect them to improve on 2017. Most, probably all, of those who changed their allegiance are likely to lose their seats.

wooliedyed

RobD said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....

Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week

Stocky

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

You can`t say that. Many Labour voters are leavers. This is not a ref no matter what they tell you.

Tories get a maj and we are out on 31/1.

malcolmg

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

One can only hope and keep fingers crossed.

Jason

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

bigjohnowls

wooliedyed said:

RobD said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....

Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week

And yesterdays ComRes was 0.5% swing away from Lab.

We are still at circa 9-11 imo

Mango

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

Hahhahahaha.

The miserable workings of FPTP will never stop a Tory/Labour robot claiming a fake mandate.

malcolmg

RobD said:

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?

Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.

Rob , you missed out "nasty lying cheating scumbag " before Tory there.

hamiltonace

Is this the time to steel yourself and sell Tory seats? This feels like the time to make money.

Beibheirli_C

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?

Not enough PBers on panels!

wooliedyed

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

malcolmg

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?

Not enough PBers on panels!

More of them should be in sanitoriums never mind panels

Charles

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Perhaps that will be the polling lesson from this election?

Not enough PBers on panels!

PanelBeating.com

DavidL

When you look at that table it is really Labour that the pollsters are finding difficult. The Tories and Lib Dems are both in quite a narrow range and remarkably stable. The difference between Opinium and Survation as against ICM for Labour is remarkable. Someone has got this seriously wrong. Have ICM done a better job of identifying the reasons why Labour outperformed the polls in 2017?

The graph on the last thread was salutary. Given that the polls were clearly closing that time around the consensus that the Tories would get a majority was absurdly robust. A huge misjudgment by the betting markets, one of the biggest since 1992.

RobC

wooliedyed said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

How? The survey was conducted before the story broke

Finished yesterday story broke yesterday so maybe it did slightly. More to the point it might yet be a portender of late swingback. Don't get me wrong I'm not a Corbynista far from it but we do need to be able spot late changes in the dynamic.

wooliedyed

bigjohnowls said:

wooliedyed said:

RobD said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

But there wasn't any swing in the ICM....

Tbf it showed a weighty 0.5% swing to labour over the last week

And yesterdays ComRes was 0.5% swing away from Lab.

We are still at circa 9-11 imo

I'm at 10 to 12 but yes

noneoftheabove

NorthernPowerhouse said:

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

We live in a parliamentary democracy and a majority of 1 is mandate.

So each vote in the last parliament blocking Brexit was fully democratic and reflecting the national mandate, not parliament blocking democracy? Or is this another cake and eat it type of quote?

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

Ooh ooh I know the answer to this one. It’s because lying Tories can’t be trusted, isn’t it?

Well he was talking to an unscrupulous Tory bastard.

Rob , you missed out "nasty lying cheating scumbag " before Tory there.

Sorry, I though that was implied.

hamiltonace

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

wooliedyed

RobC said:

wooliedyed said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

How? The survey was conducted before the story broke

Finished yesterday story broke yesterday so maybe it did slightly. More to the point it might yet be a portender of late swingback. Don't get me wrong I'm not a Corbynista far from it but we do need to be able spot late changes in the dynamic.

The 3 other polls released since sunday show the opposite.

Jason

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

nova

brokenwheel said:

RobD said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

The number of people on PB that are on these panels makes me question how accurate they are!

Honestly i'm surprised we ever see any changes in the polls since they seem to only ask political activists.

I believe the online polling companies worked out pretty quickly and have tried to mitigate. One way, which unfortunately is contradicted by Sqareroot2s tardiness, is that they don't take the first people to respond, but try to spread the sample out from people who respond at different times.

Given that most of their work is non-political, I'd assume the likes of YouGov know enough about their panel to be able to ask a lot of nonPBers too

OldKingCole

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!

Stocky

hamiltonace said:

Is this the time to steel yourself and sell Tory seats? This feels like the time to make money.

Well ... 343 seats implies a maj of 40. Maybe a touch on the high side I suppose? I`d rather be selling than buying I think.

Charles

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

I thought the Duffy story didn’t have any impact?

Beibheirli_C

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!

He will probably just make something up. I expect no less

IanB2

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Beibheirli_C

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

OldKingCole

The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'

Stereotomy

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

If it's a Tory majority, the LD record will be banging on about Brexit for three years then tricking people into wasting their votes, with absolutely nothing to show for it. Not convinced that's the strongest foundation to build on

MikeSmithson

Back in 2005 I wrote PB on how to boost your YouGov ratings so you'd get invited to participate more and increase the "value" of your views.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/03/01/how-to-improve-your-yougov-ratings/

This ended with me getting a lawyer's letter from YouGov about not following their guidelines and me being expelled from the list.

RobD

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

Stocky

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

I sold at 37.5 and then again at 25.5. Then I went Over at 16.5 at Evens. So I`m happy with my LibDem bets.

Some of my constituency bets look dodgy though.

Casino_Royale

There are many many seats that will fall to the Conservatives or Labour on 1,000 votes or less.

Anyone betting on seat spreads should bear in mind the large MoE either which way.

You simply can't predict them that accurately.

TheScreamingEagles

Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

KeithJenner

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.

wooliedyed

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.

It's true, you are a bit weird.

*innocent face*

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.

George Osborne fans?

Stocky

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.

MikeSmithson

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

And the LD activists in North Oxford are campaigning hard in nearby Witney.

wooliedyed

TheScreamingEagles said:

Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

Populus lives!

brokenwheel

MikeSmithson said:

Back in 2005 I wrote PB on how to boost your YouGov ratings so you'd get invited to participate more and increase the "value" of your views.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/03/01/how-to-improve-your-yougov-ratings/

This ended with me getting a lawyer's letter from YouGov about not following their guidelines and me being expelled from the list.

So they like S*n readers? Would take Liverpool MRP projections with a pinch of salt then!

paulyork64

Greens v BXP most votes.

Ladbrokes still 5/6 each but Paddys now BXP 1/2, Greens 6/4. maybe they've taken some chunky bets. not seen any news to cause BXP shortening.

Charles

Stocky said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.

He had no idea what was on the phone

It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow

DavidL

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?

IanB2

KeithJenner said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.

They have a panel of over a million adults now - so something like one in fifty. I don’t know what their response rate is like, but with the cash incentive it’s probably reasonably good.

If they are using all of these panellists for their MRP, these are providing what YouGov themselves say are 14,000 responses a day with about 150 people on average responding each week from each constituency. That’s about twice as many per seat as in 2017.

viewcode

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

@OnlyLivingBoy , I am genuinely interested in your regression equation in the previous thread. Can you tell me what the X and Y variables are please?

wooliedyed

Stocky said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.

Yeah he will be annoyed and embarrassed but it isn't going to cost him buckets full of votes

Anorak

https://twitter.com/frenchbloke/status/1204358221600870400

RobC

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.

wooliedyed

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?

Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night

WhisperingOracle

Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


"Natalie Bennett
‏
@natalieben

Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.

noneoftheabove

KeithJenner said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.

Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?

TheScreamingEagles

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IanB2 said:

I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

Another poll skewed

Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm

The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.

George Osborne fans?

Inter alia

Person of colour

Party member

Muslim

Descendent of immigrants

Working Upper Middle class Northerner

Right wing person of colour

DavidL

wooliedyed said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?

Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night

She'll have them on their knees, without a doubt.

Stark_Dawning

What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

The mother faked the photo.
The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
Boris didn't want to look at porn.

RobD

RobC said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.

Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.

IanB2

Stark_Dawning said:

What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

The mother faked the photo.
The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
Boris didn't want to look at porn.

It’s “look at Ashworth over there!”. Do try to keep up.

TheScreamingEagles

wooliedyed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

Populus lives!

They do a lot of the Ashcroft polling.

Stocky

Other news, looks like Tom Brake is in danger in Carshalton.

viewcode

DavidL said:

wooliedyed said:

DavidL said:

hamiltonace said:

Stocky said:

MikeSmithson said:

NorthCadboll said:

Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!

I assume you are betting heavily on that.

LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.

That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.

Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.

No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?

Laylas partner is hoping it's a good news night

She'll have them on their knees, without a doubt.

I'm begging of you please, AV.

OldKingCole

WhisperingOracle said:

Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


"Natalie Bennett
‏
@natalieben

Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in an off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like actually replicating the kind of constituency that Brighton is.

Some years ago the IoW went suddenly and surprisingly Liberal. (Note for N Cadboll....this was when the Liberal Part was a national force, before most of it merged with the SDP to form the LibDems. And became less "Liberal".)

TOPPING

HYUFD said:

Streeter said:

HYUFD said:

Have some sympathy with Ashworth, conversations made in private should not be recorded and leaked, even though he could have been more guarded with his comments

If private conversations should not be recorded and leaked, why should he have been more guarded with his comments?

He is a Shadow Cabinet Minister

Yep it's like when Ed Balls was asked about whether he'd ever paid cash to his gardener (iirc) without a receipt and he said no he hadn't and the interviewer had said really?? And he replied saying he was shadow Chancellor of course he never had.

Harris_Tweed

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

With Revoke/Second Ref parties on track to receive a majority of votes, it will be a stretch for Bozo to say that the result is a mandate for his Leave Deal.

Are you serious? He'll be proclaiming absolute certainty!

I tend to agree that if Boris has a majority, there'll be no truck with the "half the country don't agree with this" spiel. It's full speed to the exit door (unless dodgy candidate vetting makes the majority less secure than it seems as first )

(Conversely, if 2ndRef parties end up with a seat majority, the argument of over-riding democratic legitimacy for the first one starts to thin a little IMO).

MikeSmithson

RobD said:

RobC said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.

Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.

Remember the efforts to diss Survation last time after its 1% CON led poll

IanB2

noneoftheabove said:

KeithJenner said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...

One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.

One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.

I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.

I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.

Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?

The frequency of the surveys has reduced significantly over recent years, doubtless as more and more people sign up. It takes eighteen months to two years to chalk up £50 nowadays.

Selebian

Stark_Dawning said:

What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..

The mother faked the photo.
The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it.
Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist.
Boris didn't want to look at porn.

Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)

Barney

wooliedyed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Populus are doing an on day how you voted poll.

Populus lives!

I trust that they know that it would be a criminal offence to publish the results of that poll before the polls close at 10pm

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

RobC said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.

Not sure why they should be worried about their share in one pollster, especially one with a poor record in recent elections.

Remember the efforts to diss Survation last time after its 1% CON led poll

Yep Now I have absolute trust in Survation

(I know, I know!)

noneoftheabove

RobC said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.

Agree that Corbyn's weaknesses are already exposed whereas peoples perception of PM Johnson may end up very different to their perception of Boris. Boris could win a landslide but perhaps PM Johnson might be in hung parliament territory.

The NHS video helps, but it is still hard for Labour to get the public to view him as Johnson and not Boris though.

TOPPING

Charles said:

Stocky said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

wooliedyed said:

Jason said:

RobC said:

That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.

That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.

If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.

Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor.
The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation

I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.

You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.

He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.

He had no idea what was on the phone

It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow

Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.

IanB2

WhisperingOracle said:

Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -


"Natalie Bennett
‏
@natalieben

Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"

It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.

If “another great day on the doorstep” tweets from party activists count as evidence, we are in trouble.