I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
What are the polling dates for the MRP? If they're before Monday, they're already out of date.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
So are we going to wake up to a Marxist Government on Friday morning ?
Far bigger possibility now than it was before Monday IMO. I hope I'm wrong.
I think this is right. The people who will make the difference in this election are those who will vote for Mr Johnson's party reluctantly. Reluctant voters need far, far less to put them off, witness OGH's post the other day that he couldn't vote for someone who shirked an interview with Mr Neil. That's a valid reason for him; it's just not a very weighty reason compared to, say, systematic anti-semitism in a party.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
Now that is the key issue. The boy on the floor could be explained away by someone able to think on their feet. Johnson could have suggested that the picture looks awful and he would get Matt Hancock to report back after a full investigation, and there would have been a damage limited story.
The subsequent cover ups are what doesn't look so good. However this is Johnson, and he will likely as not get away with it at the polls.
What was the cover up?
YOU BASTARDS!!! You are making me defend Boris and the Cons.
The back-pedaling and the dead cat assault of a SPAD?
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
email from Labour, sent to me as Liberal democrat because that is what I registered on their site as::
"Liberal democrat, election day is nearly upon us and we're preparing for the most ambitious, coordinated campaign this country has ever seen.
Already we're smashing records with our election activities, and on Thursday we're expecting tens of thousands of people to flock to key areas where our campaigning will make the biggest impact.
Our incredible people-powered movement will take on the Tories and their billionaire backers. Together, thousands of us knocking on doors in every corner of the country, we can win a Labour government for the many not the few.
Already got a plan? Great! If not, Loughborough needs your help. Here's where to go."
Loughborough was Nicky Morgan's with an 8% Tory lead last time
I am in the Loughborough constituency. I have seen no Labour presence at any stage. Perhaps I’m unlucky. To answer the other question, the candidate is an apologist. Claims independent thought, will follow orders. You might recognise the type.
Dave Merritt the father of Jack Merritt now laying into Johnson on Sky News .
That guy is.... hmmm.... I'll restrain myself. He's a grieving father.
BUT there is hope for the Tories in this late onslaught. It begins to look deranged. Labour, typically, are going over the top, painting Boris as an evil child-catcher and kitten-kebabber. At some point the public will roll their eyes, just as they have done with Labour's endless ludicrous spending promises
Come on Labour. Go totally postal. You know you want to.
The aftermath of the terror attack was the most successful part of the campaign for the Tories, as shown by the Ipsos campaign ratings going sharply into reverse after narrowing considerably.
By all means, let them put it front and centre of the media two days before polling day.
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
@OnlyLivingBoy , I am genuinely interested in your regression equation in the previous thread. Can you tell me what the X and Y variables are please?
X is the difference in the positive satisfaction rating (PM Vs LOTO) from Ipsos Mori (from their political monitor archive). Y is the pp difference in GB vote share between govt and opposition party (ie Con Vs Lab in 2017) taken from HOC Briefing Paper CBP7529. All available online. Please replicate!
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
I don't think a Corbyn govt is feasible. Let's say he wins 245 seats against 324 for the Tories. That'd be a good result for him, but he'd be 80 seats behind the Tories (and probs 7-8% in the polls) desperately trying to form a govt when basically NOBODY likes him (apart from students who don't know shit from dirty clay and subscribers to the Morning Star).
Would the SNP really join him in a minority govt? I doubt it.
And that's how DIABOLICALLY SHITE Corbyn is. He's up against a govt 10 years into power, having mismanaged the chaos of an extiniction level event (Brexit) and a leader who - despite being folksy - has a terribly ropey backstory.
And he still is unable to get within 80 seats of him.
From what we might surmise Putin's ideal outcome would be Corbyn + no deal Brexit. Orderly Brexit probably more favoured than revoke. Chaos good stability bad. Not sure how he can interfere in this election campaign effectively because overshooting on one target can bugger up the others!
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I dont get the expectation for the £ to move much on this election. Do the city prefer Tory majority and Brexit or hung parliament and 2nd ref, Id guess they are pretty agnostic. An outright Labour majority would obviously be seen as bad but that is a <1% chance.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
I backed Labour at 6/1 on here a couple of weeks ago. I said it was one of 5 seats that could buck the national trend as a bit remainy and big University. However I sensed that offered value rather than being on a knife edge.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
One group of experts who devoted whole lifetimes to refining and fine tuning an incredibly sophisticated model, were the Ptolemaic astronomers. They called it "saving the phenomena." And every time they did it they said "There! We've changed the weightings and backtested it and it now perfectly predicts the 2017 eclipse."
Hence the oscillation between over-predicting Labour and over-predicting the Tories.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
Lol. When the £ jumps after Bozo gets his undeserved majority, you’ll be sitting on a big paper loss and will be forced to hold until the country sinks slowly back into post-Brexit ruin.
I dont get the expectation for the £ to move much on this election. Do the city prefer Tory majority and Brexit or hung parliament and 2nd ref, Id guess they are pretty agnostic. An outright Labour majority would obviously be seen as bad but that is a <1% chance. </p>
It’ll jump on certainty, and then rise gradually until the reemergence of uncertainty sets in.
One group of experts who devoted whole lifetimes to refining and fine tuning an incredibly sophisticated model, were the Ptolemaic astronomers. They called it "saving the phenomena." And every time they did it they said "There! We've changed the weightings and backtested it and it now perfectly predicts the 2017 eclipse."
Hence the oscillation between over-predicting Labour and over-predicting the Tories.
+1
If only there was going to be a live update on the night to see if the modelling was correct...
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
I was doubtful that the fake facebook post was organised by CCHQ. It was just too amateurish and it was obvious that it would be found out.
My initial thought was that it was a supporter, but the fact that it seems to have been posted by a number of different people themselves, rather than just sharing it suggests that isn't the case.
I'm sure that others would have a better idea than me how these things happen. Could it even have been non tories trying to spin a cover up story? (I'm not suggesting that it was, just asking the question).
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
Was the SPAD called Wilfried Zaha? The slightest touch and metaphorically speaking he goes down.
He didn't go down at all. He didn't really break step. He just looked, startled, at the source of the contact.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
Was the SPAD called Wilfried Zaha? The slightest touch and metaphorically speaking he goes down.
He didn't go down at all. He didn't really break step. He just looked, startled, at the source of the contact.
If that really was the incident it was a ridiculous level of spin from the Tories and shameful of the media to swallow it without verification.
I visited some relatives in Crawley over the weekend. The place was swarming with Labour activists and the Tories have been phone canvassing relentlessly, so presumably both hope/fear this could be a Labour gain. Note that Crawley is demographically very similar to those northern seats Boris is targeting - working class, Leave, industrial heritage. If Labour take it then we have to be looking at a hung parliament.
Yes, got a Momentum request to go to Crawley today (not knowing I'm up in Broxtowe) - previously they've been flagging Reading East but seem to think that's safe now.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
Just watched Politics live. Ed Davey seemed a bit strange.
I think LibDems are shell-shocked. They over-reached and the penny has dropped.
He can't be worried about his own seat.
Kingston?
It's Remain-y, the LDs did really well in the Council elections last year... Should be fairly safe.
There are, of course, no truly safe LD seats. That's the inevitable consequence of being a national party getting under 15% of the vote.
I do think that every election, sentiment on the LDs goes from one extreme to another. Back in 2017, my forecast was 12-14 seats throughout the campaign. This time around, I think any forecast needs to have a very wide confidence interval - I could see the LDs making it to 20-21 seats if they are lucky with their defences and manage to continue to improve the efficiency of their vote.
And I could see them losing both Leave seats and in Scotland (and possibly even Westmoreland), and only managing a couple of gains in Remainia as compensation.
All that being said, we do need to remember that the LDs absolute vote share is going to be up about five percentage points. That's at least a 40% increase in total votes. It would be very surprising if that didn't lead to at least a few net gains.
Is Allison Pearson at the Telegraph going to apologise for calling the floor photo "100% fake"? Because this really is a disgusting development. Regardless of your politics, surely sane people can agree that we don't want the growth of a "Sandy Hook truther"-type [*] culture?
(*) The "belief" that the Sandy Hook massacre was "fake", staged by "crisis actors".
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
Not really. I don't think I am the one who needs to get a grip, to be honest.
I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been some sort of personal Boris bombshell unleashed in the past few days: an op-ed in the Guardian by the mother of an undisclosed child.. "where Boris can stick his dancing pole" by Jennifer Arcuri in the Mirror or the Canary auctioning off bits of Carrie's smashed plates.
You can pretty much guarantee The Sun has "Jeremy Corbyn bought a used car off Colonel Gadaffi" or similar lined up for Thursday morning.
Makes more sense to drop bombshells tomorrow than Thursday.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
I feel this election is a bit like Churchill becoming leader during the war , he was the right man for the war but was rejected after the war in peacetime . Likewise I think Boris is seen ax the man to save the nation from Corbyn and Deliver Brexit . But Labour will win again once we have “Peacetime” (if they get a more moderate leader)
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
Trouble is, Boris's mob might represent the greater threat. Not Brexit but their proposals to reduce the power of the courts and even parliament to rein in the government.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
Not really. I don't think I am the one who needs to get a grip, to be honest.
I think that most people find Labour`s continual running down of the country very wearing. Most people don`t recognise the picture they paint. We need to forge on as the successful positive country that we are. I didn`t vote for Brexit, and it does worry me, but it`s going to happen and it needs positivity and optimism to make it work.
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
Brexit and Corbynism are two cheeks of the same arse.
There’s a reason Michael Foot wanted to leave the EC just like that.
Just watched Politics live. Ed Davey seemed a bit strange.
I think LibDems are shell-shocked. They over-reached and the penny has dropped.
He can't be worried about his own seat.
Kingston?
It's Remain-y, the LDs did really well in the Council elections last year... Should be fairly safe.
There are, of course, no truly safe LD seats. That's the inevitable consequence of being a national party getting under 15% of the vote.
I do think that every election, sentiment on the LDs goes from one extreme to another. Back in 2017, my forecast was 12-14 seats throughout the campaign. This time around, I think any forecast needs to have a very wide confidence interval - I could see the LDs making it to 20-21 seats if they are lucky with their defences and manage to continue to improve the efficiency of their vote.
And I could see them losing both Leave seats and in Scotland (and possibly even Westmoreland), and only managing a couple of gains in Remainia as compensation.
All that being said, we do need to remember that the LDs absolute vote share is going to be up about five percentage points. That's at least a 40% increase in total votes. It would be very surprising if that didn't lead to at least a few net gains.
I was astonished when the Tories won Twickenham in 2015 and not at all surprised when they lost it in 2017. It's hugely remain. I would be shocked if Kingston went Tory but it could happen on a good night.
I don't think a Corbyn govt is feasible. Let's say he wins 245 seats against 324 for the Tories. That'd be a good result for him, but he'd be 80 seats behind the Tories (and probs 7-8% in the polls) desperately trying to form a govt when basically NOBODY likes him (apart from students who don't know shit from dirty clay and subscribers to the Morning Star).
Would the SNP really join him in a minority govt? I doubt it.
I'm not sure what stable outcomes there are in the case of NOC.
The only obvious coalition involving existing leaders is Lab+SNP but Labour will have had a spectacular night if it gets close enough for 40-something SNPs (and Plaid and Greens) to make up the numbers. It would be a massive reverse ferret for Swinson to do any more than quietly acquiesce (but I guess she might do that for a year then reserve the right to collapse it all after a 2nd Ref).
If Johnson falls just a few short, I don't see where he gets *any* extra votes, especially for Brexit. Surely the DUP aren't buyable? The LibDems might be for a 2nd Ref.. but surely that would be "taxi for Johnson" territory or the loss of the ERG?
Either way, unless BJ gets and keeps a working a majority I can see our pattern of rather short parliaments continuing...
I was doubtful that the fake facebook post was organised by CCHQ. It was just too amateurish and it was obvious that it would be found out.
I would agree, but...did you see the crazy stuff about "HIJACKED LABOUR" published in the Sun on Saturday? It was hastily pulled, but it's archived here. Daniel Trilling writes about it in the Guardian here. It's stretching things too far to suppose CCHQ had no hand in a big article "exposing" Labour, published in the Sun five days before a general election.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
I was doubtful that the fake facebook post was organised by CCHQ. It was just too amateurish and it was obvious that it would be found out.
My initial thought was that it was a supporter, but the fact that it seems to have been posted by a number of different people themselves, rather than just sharing it suggests that isn't the case.
I'm sure that others would have a better idea than me how these things happen. Could it even have been non tories trying to spin a cover up story? (I'm not suggesting that it was, just asking the question).
I know it sounds conspriacy theory-ish, but Russian interference seems entirely plausible.
I say this not because I think the Russians are supporting the Tories here: the aim of the Russian state is not to support any particular side, but to amplify existing differences in order to drive wedges between disparate groups so that they can weaken their opponents. They’ll create new controversies if they can’t find existing ones.
So they post on both sides of the race divide in the US, both sides of the Brexit divide in the UK and so on. It doesn’t really matter if some of the disinformation is relatively obvious & easily uncovered, because breaking people’s confidence in the reliability of existing sources of truth is the goal. They don’t particularly care about the actual message itself, they care about destroying trust & confidence so that they can make their own manoeuvres in the future under a cloud of similar disinformation.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Every fibre of my being is saying hung parliament. Maybe it's all the Labour posters and leaflets round here giving me the willies. I'm no more informed than anyone else.
(FPT) When was the last time a party led by a PM with no previous GE wins and no previous majority gained a majority in a GE?
When was the last time someone became PM mid parliament with no majority?
James Callaghan?
I'm probably wrong, but I thought he had a majority when he became PM, but lost it soon after.
Before my time so I’m only guessing.
According to wiki, you were right:
"Labour had already lost its narrow majority in the House of Commons by the time he became Prime Minister, and further by-election defeats and defections forced Callaghan to deal with minor parties such as the Liberal Party, particularly in the "Lib–Lab pact" from 1977 to 1978."
I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been some sort of personal Boris bombshell unleashed in the past few days: an op-ed in the Guardian by the mother of an undisclosed child.. "where Boris can stick his dancing pole" by Jennifer Arcuri in the Mirror or the Canary auctioning off bits of Carrie's smashed plates.
You can pretty much guarantee The Sun has "Jeremy Corbyn bought a used car off Colonel Gadaffi" or similar lined up for Thursday morning.
Makes more sense to drop bombshells tomorrow than Thursday.
Agreed... but I think Sunday or Monday would have been even more bombshellworthy (to give it time to spread). Even tomorrow, the broadcasters will have a fairly high threshold to rock the boat - "eve of poll" used to have a special regulatory status requiring on-the-day balance.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
Now that is the key issue. The boy on the floor could be explained away by someone able to think on their feet. Johnson could have suggested that the picture looks awful and he would get Matt Hancock to report back after a full investigation, and there would have been a damage limited story.
The subsequent cover ups are what doesn't look so good. However this is Johnson, and he will likely as not get away with it at the polls.
What was the cover up?
YOU BASTARDS!!! You are making me defend Boris and the Cons.
The back-pedaling and the dead cat assault of a SPAD?
Jesus didn't you look at the video. Flourescent biker twat jabs into thin air like a twat. SPAD walks along (on phone?) not paying attention. SPAD walks into arm of FBT and is startled. Has every reason, given the febrile atmosphere and that FBT is shouting like a FBT, to think it was intentional. You and I, with the benefit of an action replay, realise it was all an accident, no assault.
On the Jonathan Ashworth story, I seem to remember Laura Pidcock getting stick on here for saying she'd never be friends with a Tory. Perhaps Ashworth would have been better off following the same policy?
Not at all, he just needs better friends.
Though friendships are bound to be tested when there are fears of threats to national security.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
Was the SPAD called Wilfried Zaha? The slightest touch and metaphorically speaking he goes down.
He didn't go down at all. He didn't really break step. He just looked, startled, at the source of the contact.
If that really was the incident it was a ridiculous level of spin from the Tories and shameful of the media to swallow it without verification.
Every fibre of my being is saying hung parliament. Maybe it's all the Labour posters and leaflets round here giving me the willies. I'm no more informed than anyone else.
I note two SDLP seats are now projected. Anyone know if they’ve stated they’ll still take the Labour whip? If so, nudges up seats required for an effective Tory majority by one.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
I note two SDLP seats are now projected. Anyone know if they’ve stated they’ll still take the Labour whip? If so, nudges up seats required for an effective Tory majority by one.
I was looking at SF v DUP seats as an interesting bet. I don’t think they’ll make it, but there could only be one seat in it; the DUP has hardly covered itself in glory or done much for its credibility recently.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
You're a star!
Will the URL you posted earlier still be valid on the night?
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
Yes, indeed, I'm inclined that way myself. But not, please not, a revolution with anti-semitism already baked in to the leading party.
If it weren't for that, I'd be really very interested to see how communism would work in a population so accustomed to taking so much for granted.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
You're a star!
Will the URL you posted earlier still be valid on the night?
Yes it should be. If anything changes, obviously I will post the update.
Only concern now is that the BBC decide to radically change their place holder pages or are ridiculously slow updating them.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Thank you for this. Election night is going to be epic with these kinds of brilliant contributions.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Thank you for this. Election night is going to be epic with these kinds of brilliant contributions.
Not if the bong goes and Huw says the exit poll predicts Jezza largest party....
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Thank you for this. Election night is going to be epic with these kinds of brilliant contributions.
Not if the bong goes and Huw says the exit poll predicts Jezza largest party....
Every fibre of my being is saying hung parliament. Maybe it's all the Labour posters and leaflets round here giving me the willies. I'm no more informed than anyone else.
If it were down to posters the LibDems would be heading for a landslide.
Yes, and for once that means I got my timing exactly right on the sell.
I should have bought the Tories earlier than I did, though, but at least I closed out near the peak (so far, at least - we'll see how it ends up on Friday).
Is Allison Pearson at the Telegraph going to apologise for calling the floor photo "100% fake"? Because this really is a disgusting development. Regardless of your politics, surely sane people can agree that we don't want the growth of a "Sandy Hook truther"-type [*] culture?
(*) The "belief" that the Sandy Hook massacre was "fake", staged by "crisis actors".
Apparently she was going to publish the proof of the fakery tomorrow, but I doubt it will ever see the light of day. She was just one of Boris's little soldiers in a flap.
FYI, I have now added in swing information. So we should also be able to see if Tories are over / under performing MRP predicted swings, vs Lab and LDs, as the results come in. And have a handy bar chart to illustrate it.
Thank you for this. Election night is going to be epic with these kinds of brilliant contributions.
Not if the bong goes and Huw says the exit poll predicts Jezza largest party....
Labour landslide.
If that is the case, the live tracker won't be running. The only thing running will be me, to the airport!!!!
Every fibre of my being is saying hung parliament. Maybe it's all the Labour posters and leaflets round here giving me the willies. I'm no more informed than anyone else.
Are you in the Canterbury seat?
Yes, which will stay Lab with a bigger majority. But it's the rest of the country I'm worried about..
Just watched Politics live. Ed Davey seemed a bit strange.
I think LibDems are shell-shocked. They over-reached and the penny has dropped.
He can't be worried about his own seat.
Kingston?
It's Remain-y, the LDs did really well in the Council elections last year... Should be fairly safe.
There are, of course, no truly safe LD seats. That's the inevitable consequence of being a national party getting under 15% of the vote.
I do think that every election, sentiment on the LDs goes from one extreme to another. Back in 2017, my forecast was 12-14 seats throughout the campaign. This time around, I think any forecast needs to have a very wide confidence interval - I could see the LDs making it to 20-21 seats if they are lucky with their defences and manage to continue to improve the efficiency of their vote.
And I could see them losing both Leave seats and in Scotland (and possibly even Westmoreland), and only managing a couple of gains in Remainia as compensation.
All that being said, we do need to remember that the LDs absolute vote share is going to be up about five percentage points. That's at least a 40% increase in total votes. It would be very surprising if that didn't lead to at least a few net gains.
I was astonished when the Tories won Twickenham in 2015 and not at all surprised when they lost it in 2017. It's hugely remain. I would be shocked if Kingston went Tory but it could happen on a good night.
For the LDs to lose Kingston, it requires Labour Remainers to return home. Given Labour support is perhaps six points down on 2017, while the LibDems are up five points or so, that doesn't seem that likely.
Comments
Good afternoon, everybody.
By all means, let them put it front and centre of the media two days before polling day.
Y is the pp difference in GB vote share between govt and opposition party (ie Con Vs Lab in 2017) taken from HOC Briefing Paper CBP7529.
All available online. Please replicate!
And he still is unable to get within 80 seats of him.
Utter, utter pitiful socialist shite.
If all opposition coalesced around Labour they could possibly get to c.40%.
It wouldn't surprise me if the student vote is rallying behind them there but it shouldn't be enough to take the seat.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1204406240383655936?s=19
When was the last time a party led by a PM with no previous GE wins and no previous majority gained a majority in a GE?
My initial thought was that it was a supporter, but the fact that it seems to have been posted by a number of different people themselves, rather than just sharing it suggests that isn't the case.
I'm sure that others would have a better idea than me how these things happen. Could it even have been non tories trying to spin a cover up story? (I'm not suggesting that it was, just asking the question).
FFS. Get a grip. Corbyn needs putting down. Everyone sane has to pinch noses and forget doubts and vote Tory, even if it is for the only time in your life.
It's Remain-y, the LDs did really well in the Council elections last year... Should be fairly safe.
There are, of course, no truly safe LD seats. That's the inevitable consequence of being a national party getting under 15% of the vote.
I do think that every election, sentiment on the LDs goes from one extreme to another. Back in 2017, my forecast was 12-14 seats throughout the campaign. This time around, I think any forecast needs to have a very wide confidence interval - I could see the LDs making it to 20-21 seats if they are lucky with their defences and manage to continue to improve the efficiency of their vote.
And I could see them losing both Leave seats and in Scotland (and possibly even Westmoreland), and only managing a couple of gains in Remainia as compensation.
All that being said, we do need to remember that the LDs absolute vote share is going to be up about five percentage points. That's at least a 40% increase in total votes. It would be very surprising if that didn't lead to at least a few net gains.
(*) The "belief" that the Sandy Hook massacre was "fake", staged by "crisis actors".
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1204407740640243712?s=21
There’s a reason Michael Foot wanted to leave the EC just like that.
I would be shocked if Kingston went Tory but it could happen on a good night.
The only obvious coalition involving existing leaders is Lab+SNP but Labour will have had a spectacular night if it gets close enough for 40-something SNPs (and Plaid and Greens) to make up the numbers. It would be a massive reverse ferret for Swinson to do any more than quietly acquiesce (but I guess she might do that for a year then reserve the right to collapse it all after a 2nd Ref).
If Johnson falls just a few short, I don't see where he gets *any* extra votes, especially for Brexit. Surely the DUP aren't buyable? The LibDems might be for a 2nd Ref.. but surely that would be "taxi for Johnson" territory or the loss of the ERG?
Either way, unless BJ gets and keeps a working a majority I can see our pattern of rather short parliaments continuing...
Edit: I was wrong. They lost the majority shortly before.
https://twitter.com/LabourBristol/status/1204403224322740224
She may also have been working as Labour's agent in Kingswood.
I say this not because I think the Russians are supporting the Tories here: the aim of the Russian state is not to support any particular side, but to amplify existing differences in order to drive wedges between disparate groups so that they can weaken their opponents. They’ll create new controversies if they can’t find existing ones.
So they post on both sides of the race divide in the US, both sides of the Brexit divide in the UK and so on. It doesn’t really matter if some of the disinformation is relatively obvious & easily uncovered, because breaking people’s confidence in the reliability of existing sources of truth is the goal. They don’t particularly care about the actual message itself, they care about destroying trust & confidence so that they can make their own manoeuvres in the future under a cloud of similar disinformation.
"Labour had already lost its narrow majority in the House of Commons by the time he became Prime Minister, and further by-election defeats and defections forced Callaghan to deal with minor parties such as the Liberal Party, particularly in the "Lib–Lab pact" from 1977 to 1978."
https://public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate
Though friendships are bound to be tested when there are fears of threats to national security.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELazT13WoAEpuGc?format=jpg&name=large
Will the URL you posted earlier still be valid on the night?
If it weren't for that, I'd be really very interested to see how communism would work in a population so accustomed to taking so much for granted.
Only concern now is that the BBC decide to radically change their place holder pages or are ridiculously slow updating them.
Interesting parallel.
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/12/10/how-fake-news-spreads/?fbclid=IwAR2wt-ynibWeQgPEb-t6JgcIZTYqx6U3BB61suPG5om_rS-ZYSLNn9dTz7Q
What a state we are in
https://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
I should have bought the Tories earlier than I did, though, but at least I closed out near the peak (so far, at least - we'll see how it ends up on Friday).