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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    We spotted it in the wee hours last night. Was obviously fake as the cross-tabs had the same numbers as the previous poll.
    Okay thanks! Sorry didn't realise you'd already outed it.
    Don't apologise, just pointing out the PB is once again at the head of the pack! :p
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    IanB2 said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
    No chance.

    If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.

    How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
    He won’t need to, it’ll be imposed by Cooper-Benn-Letwin 3.
    No Bercow and even if possible where`s the majority?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Yes. Last time Dimbleby was fairly swift in saying that they didn't have the Tories winning a majority. In 2015 it was an absolute age before the seat numbers appeared.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    wills66 said:



    And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda.

    You see, I don't believe this. MPs are sneaky sods, interested only in their careers. Labour MPs would vote for Corbyn to be PM and LD/SNP MPs would comply if given enough goodies.

    From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.

    WillS.
    Honestly, a moderate Labour MP is a good friend. They would no way permit Corbyn's full agenda.

    Anyway it ain't gonna happen.

    The most Labour can possibly hope for now is that the tories fall just short of a majority.
    Is it Jonathon Ashworth?
  • BluerBlue said:

    Byronic said:

    BluerBlue said:

    nichomar said:

    BluerBlue said:

    I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:

    Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.

    Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.

    Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.

    Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.


    Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.

    As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.

    You only have faith in Tory voting members of the public, you only see life through blue tinged spectacles, it’s all about us this and us that. If you can’t understand why people think and vote differently to your good self then you are either very lucky or very sad.
    If we weren't up against a party that plans a literal revolution in our country, I would agree with you. As it is, everyone sane needs to vote blue, and I don't mind saying that loud and clear.
    What you don't understand is that lots of people look at the state the country is in and think that a revolution might be what is needed.
    What, things are so bad in Britain, we need a fucking socialist revolution? Really? And where on earth has a socialist revolution EVER WORKED???

    You're likely to get your way although in some ways my favourite outcome would be a single figure tory majority. Enough to kill Labour's Brexit albatross. Enough to make 'Flat Cap Fred' realise it isn't the panacea he thought it would be. Enough to get a decent Labour leader. And enough to trounce the tories in c. 3 to 4 yrs after a total shitshow Gov't that would make John Major look like the Gold Standard.
    Enough time to sell up and head somewhere that won't elect a Marxist...
    I may be wrong but I think if Corbyn fails this time that's the end of Marxism Redux over here. Labour will be dragged back to the centre.
    I fear you are very wrong. The Labour membership won’t give in. Many of the MPs might form a “democratic centrist alliance” though
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
    No chance.

    If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.

    How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
    He won’t need to, it’ll be imposed by Cooper-Benn-Letwin 3.
    No Bercow and even if possible where`s the majority?
    Quite. The Tories would need to be sub 300 for those games to work without their brexwets even if the speaker decides to be as ridiculous as Bercow
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TOPPING said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    Great post. Yes we have to stop someone who swiped a phone when ambushed by a journalist from getting into No.10 or else we are all doomed. Thank goodness we have a fantastic alternative who can assume power in his stead and lead us from strength to strength.
    I was worried after reading the first two words........

    But I see what you did there :-)
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    wills66 said:



    And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda.

    You see, I don't believe this. MPs are sneaky sods, interested only in their careers. Labour MPs would vote for Corbyn to be PM and LD/SNP MPs would comply if given enough goodies.

    From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.

    WillS.
    Honestly, a moderate Labour MP is a good friend. They would no way permit Corbyn's full agenda.

    Anyway it ain't gonna happen.

    The most Labour can possibly hope for now is that the tories fall just short of a majority.
    So this moderate has vocally spoken out about Corbyn?

    Or is he an enabler?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    wills66 said:



    And, fortunately, we know there is absolutely NO chance whatsoever of Corbyn winning a majority. Actually, even if he did around 100 Labour MPs will never vote through his agenda.

    You see, I don't believe this. MPs are sneaky sods, interested only in their careers. Labour MPs would vote for Corbyn to be PM and LD/SNP MPs would comply if given enough goodies.

    From that point onwards it'd be "interesting", the Executive can wield a lot of power without being troubled by parliamentary votes.

    WillS.
    Honestly, a moderate Labour MP is a good friend. They would no way permit Corbyn's full agenda.

    Anyway it ain't gonna happen.

    The most Labour can possibly hope for now is that the tories fall just short of a majority.
    Is it Jonathon Ashworth?
    No

    There are many like him though. They would be a great controlling mechanism but we are nowhere near that terrain and never going to be. The most Labour can hope for is to prevent a Johnson majority.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    TOPPING said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    Great post. Yes we have to stop someone who swiped a phone when ambushed by a journalist from getting into No.10 or else we are all doomed. Thank goodness we have a fantastic alternative who can assume power in his stead and lead us from strength to strength.
    A PM whose own health secretary thinks he would be deemed a national security risk by the security services.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Merriam-Webster dictionary announces ‘they’ as its Word of the Year https://t.co/ThSXQ0iJJY

    Get woke, bitches
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 319
    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said.

    Yep, even OGH has said he's considering it.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    "Callaghan's parliamentary position became increasingly precarious. By April 1976 the government had lost its formal majority. The immediate reasons were a by-election defeat, the defection of two of Callaghan's backbenchers to form a new 'Scottish Labour Party' and the defection of the maverick John Stonehouse."

    From a BBC Report. The Scottish Labour Party was founded in January 1976 after Jim Sillars and John Roberston left the Labour Party. The Tories has already gained a by-election.

    So by April 1976, when Callaghan became PM, Labour was technically a minority govt.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited December 2019

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    If it is a hung Parliament the most likely outcome is a No Deal Brexit. Be glad you will have played your part in that.
    No chance.

    If, as I now think unlikely, we had a hung parliament there will definitely be a Final Say referendum.

    How? You need to get the Tories down below 310 sets for that at least. Anything more than that and you will still have Johnson in No 10 and he will not go for a second referendum. You will be screwed. And deservedly so.
    He won’t need to, it’ll be imposed by Cooper-Benn-Letwin 3.
    No Bercow and even if possible where`s the majority?
    Quite. The Tories would need to be sub 300 for those games to work without their brexwets even if the speaker decides to be as ridiculous as Bercow
    Tories get first dibs on minority government. So assuming they cannot get their WA through we exit the EU without a WA 31/1. No vote in commons needed for this. So either:
    1) we leave with no WA on 31/1
    2) parliament votes through Boris's WA or,
    3) Gov is no-confidenced.

    If 3) then how can a new gov be formed with a maj to stop exiting 31/1?
  • Mr. D,

    "We spotted it in the wee hours last night. Was obviously fake as the cross-tabs had the same numbers as the previous poll."

    That's a very PB definition of the word 'obviously'.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
  • Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    Great post. Yes we have to stop someone who swiped a phone when ambushed by a journalist from getting into No.10 or else we are all doomed. Thank goodness we have a fantastic alternative who can assume power in his stead and lead us from strength to strength.
    I was worried after reading the first two words........

    But I see what you did there :-)
    It snuck up, right?
  • Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Your welcome?? Are you taking the...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Mr. D,

    "We spotted it in the wee hours last night. Was obviously fake as the cross-tabs had the same numbers as the previous poll."

    That's a very PB definition of the word 'obviously'.

    :smiley:

    +1
  • Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
    Thanks, but I was thinking about the one that somebody had turned into a map.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
    Agreed.
  • RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
    Folk that still have time for Dave?
    That too.

    In the shrine* I have to David Cameron I have four things signed by him.

    *Study but mostly a printer room.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
    Thanks, but I was thinking about the one that somebody had turned into a map.
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate
  • Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
    Thanks, but I was thinking about the one that somebody had turned into a map.
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate
    Cheers.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Betfair maj 1.36, exactly same as this morning
  • Betting post.

    Take the 3/1 on Salzburg beating Liverpool tonight.

    Alfe Inge Haaland's son cannot stop scoring and Liverpool's defence can never be described as safe when Dejan Lovren is playing.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
    Thanks, but I was thinking about the one that somebody had turned into a map.
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Not a poll, I hasten to add. Just a group of 'experts'
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Can somebody share that link to voter registration again please.

    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wnYrHMj4gk8QqFCQkR22wHysd-K_jAMXkmhKagarnu4/edit#gid=1438592224
    Thanks, but I was thinking about the one that somebody had turned into a map.
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate
    It's interesting in the areas I know how much more housing has gone up when compared to the far lower number of additional voters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited December 2019
    Fibs in political adverts.

    General election 2019: Ads are 'indecent, dishonest and untruthful'

    You'll never guess which party is called out for dodgy bar charts.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50726500
  • twitter.com/PolStudiesAssoc/status/1204055653758775298?s=20

    It seems that predictions are varying wildly....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited December 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Betting post.

    Take the 3/1 on Salzburg beating Liverpool tonight.

    Alfe Inge Haaland's son cannot stop scoring and Liverpool's defence can never be described as safe when Dejan Lovren is playing.

    I`m on. 10/3 Lads inc boost. Small stake only.
  • In the shrine* I have to David Cameron I have four things signed by him.

    *Study but mostly a printer room.

    Your membership cards? :D:D
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Betting post.

    Take the 3/1 on Salzburg beating Liverpool tonight.

    Alfe Inge Haaland's son cannot stop scoring and Liverpool's defence can never be described as safe when Dejan Lovren is playing.

    £5 on 1-0 Salzburg win at 32 with BF
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited December 2019
    Nobidexx said:



    As I said below I suspect this MRP will be based on a big Tory lead compatible with the Welsh Barometer poll.

    Me too. I find anything below a 9% lead unlikely given that the Welsh barometer is better than the one released just below the first MRP. If it reflects the national trend it could even be a 12-13% lead.
    It's worth recalling that last time, over the last fortnight of the campaign, the Tory lead in the MRP always stayed within about one point of its final value. If it's much different from its previous value, something strange will have happened.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited December 2019

    In the shrine* I have to David Cameron I have four things signed by him.

    *Study but mostly a printer room.

    Your membership cards? :D:D
    1) Membership card

    2) Photocopy of a betting slip

    3) His autobiography

    4) And something Mark Reckless related but I cannot divulge any further

    Edit - Actually 5 things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,924
    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    I think it depends. I don't think Luciana Berger would back him, irrespective of Brexit. The same is probably true of Chuka. I also think the LDs are scarred by the whole tuition fees debacle. I think they'd probably go for the second election, on the basis that having proved they wouldn't put Corbyn in, then they'd gain the votes of Tory Remainers second time around.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2019
    Quick bit of maths, total from 450 odd seats, total increase is 600k people. How does that compare to increase in population (able to vote)? Does look like the big increases are student seats and inner city London types places like Hackney (where they weigh Labour votes).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    edited December 2019

    Quick bit of maths, total from 450 odd seats, total increase is 600k people. How does that compare to increase in population (able to vote)? Does look like the big increases are student seats and inner city London types places like Hackney (where they weigh Labour votes).


    What was the claimed total of new registrations?
  • RobD said:

    Quick bit of maths, total from 450 odd seats, total increase is 600k people. How does that compare to increase in population (able to vote)? Does look like the big increases are student seats and inner city London types places like Hackney (where they weigh Labour votes).


    What was the claimed total of new registrations?
    Millions and millions and millions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    RobD said:

    Quick bit of maths, total from 450 odd seats, total increase is 600k people. How does that compare to increase in population (able to vote)? Does look like the big increases are student seats and inner city London types places like Hackney (where they weigh Labour votes).


    What was the claimed total of new registrations?
    Millions and millions and millions.
    Three millions? :):p
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RobD said:

    Quick bit of maths, total from 450 odd seats, total increase is 600k people. How does that compare to increase in population (able to vote)? Does look like the big increases are student seats and inner city London types places like Hackney (where they weigh Labour votes).


    What was the claimed total of new registrations?
    A couple of billion.

    j/k, there was something like 3 million.
  • Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
    That ship may have sailed if the polls are right. The LibDems needed to have backed Labour in the last parliament in a "revoke and call an election" deal.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
    That ship may have sailed if the polls are right. The LibDems needed to have backed Labour in the last parliament in a "revoke and call an election" deal.
    The LDs entire election strategy has been 'Stop Brexit'. They will swallow any punishment and any backlash to make that happen. They will back Corbyn PM, I promise you.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    To be fair, some people did regard him as a demigod, and he was very old at the time of his death.
  • TOPPING said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    Great post. Yes we have to stop someone who swiped a phone when ambushed by a journalist from getting into No.10 or else we are all doomed. Thank goodness we have a fantastic alternative who can assume power in his stead and lead us from strength to strength.
    A PM whose own health secretary thinks he would be deemed a national security risk by the security services.
    Or a PM Johnson whose security clearance was blocked by Theresa May whilst he was Foreign Secretary! Not a great pair to choose from eh?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    To be fair, some people did regard him as a demigod, and he was very old at the time of his death.
    I have often read on PB that people on the left of politics have no sense of humour. Your statement made me laugh out loud.

    Does that now make you a Tory?
  • Jason said:

    Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
    That ship may have sailed if the polls are right. The LibDems needed to have backed Labour in the last parliament in a "revoke and call an election" deal.
    The LDs entire election strategy has been 'Stop Brexit'. They will swallow any punishment and any backlash to make that happen. They will back Corbyn PM, I promise you.
    Too late unless they have a fair number of MPs in a hung parliament. Swinson should have acted in the last parliament instead of her cobblers to Corbyn message. Now there is more likely to be a Tory majority and fewer LibDems (not least because half their MPs were defectors, not elected as such).
  • Given the state of the Guardian website, I'm guessing they agree with Jonathan Ashworth, and are bracing for defeat.

    There is a hilarious article by Ash Sarkar, about how university graduates are the new working class, actually. It will be news to my family in Rochdale that they are the new landed gentry, as they've paid off the mortgage.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Does anyone know whether YouGov will be publishing a new poll separate from the MRP this evening .

    I remember the last time they did .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2019
    Terror attack victim's dad criticises PM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mIqobY_5T0
  • Jason said:

    Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.

    They will back Corbyn in a hung parliament, mark my words. He is their only route to stopping Brexit.
    That ship may have sailed if the polls are right. The LibDems needed to have backed Labour in the last parliament in a "revoke and call an election" deal.
    The LDs entire election strategy has been 'Stop Brexit'. They will swallow any punishment and any backlash to make that happen. They will back Corbyn PM, I promise you.
    Yes, we will, because there is almost nothing Corbyn can do that will rival the potential of Brexit to damage our country and economy. Whatever Corbyn does or doesn't do, he can be voted out in 5 years or less, and his policies can be reversed. Brexit is a one-way trip, with no way to return to our current favourable status as an EU member with special opt-outs. Once we Brexit, we burn our bridges.
  • (FPT)
    Floater said:

    Like the man says

    "Labour’s own Shadow Cabinet Health Minister hopes they lose and they can get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. In the event that Corbyn gets into Downing Street, he hopes the Civil Service machine would be able to safeguard national security from Prime Minister Corbyn. Has there ever been a situation where Labour frontbenchers hope their party loses because their leader is a risk to national security?"

    Incendiary

    Ashworth doesn't say he hopes Labour lose the election.
    He doesn't say he believes Jeremy Corbyn is a security risk.
    And having not said either of those things, he doesn't say the second is a reason for the first.

    His Tory "friend" asks for reassurance that Corbyn "is not going to be as bad".
    The transcript is here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    To be fair, some people did regard him as a demigod, and he was very old at the time of his death.
    Why has this post got likes? It skips over the nub of the matter,
  • The next voting intention you will see from @YouGov will be with our MRP at 10PM.

    The computer is still calculating these final numbers (even we don't know yet!) so anything you see beforehand is a lie.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    I believe that bit. It was the dildo collector issue I have doubts over. The Oxford comma resolves that dilemma.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2019
    Betfair still drifting. I know only small movements, but a long way from the sub 1.30 we had a couple of days ago. I think the market is uncertain.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nichomar said:

    Byronic said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?

    This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
    Not everybody has enormous financial assets that they are desperate to protect, not everybody believes they have to help you protect those assets. A lot of people believe that there is much wrong with UK society and something needs to be done. A few people like me can’t vote for either of the lying bastards who are both intent on wrecking the UK in their own way. This will probably be my last vote having been out of the UK for 11 years now but I check with my children who think like me as it is their future. I hope all the 65+ Tory stalwarts ask their children what they would like them to do on their behalf rather than arrogantly thinking that older is wiser. But they won’t because they know best.
    Fuck off. I have kids too, and I think for them far more than me, and I don't want them to become adults in a country torn apart by Corbyn-enabled Nationalism, bankrupted by Chavez style socialism, and with a democracy razed to the ground by extreme Remainerism.

    So, do one.
  • Betfair still drifting. I know only small movements, but a long way from the sub 1.30 we had a couple of days ago. I think the market is uncertain.

    Its been bouncing around 1.40 all campaign.
  • Betfair still drifting. I know only small movements, but a long way from the sub 1.30 we had a couple of days ago. I think the market is uncertain.

    Its been bouncing around 1.40 all campaign.
    I know, but at the weekend it was clear with the Survation poll the market had confidence it was Tory majority. Huge amounts of money piled on and the price fell sharply. Now it seem far less confidence.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Byronic said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?

    This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
    Not everybody has enormous financial assets that they are desperate to protect, not everybody believes they have to help you protect those assets. A lot of people believe that there is much wrong with UK society and something needs to be done. A few people like me can’t vote for either of the lying bastards who are both intent on wrecking the UK in their own way. This will probably be my last vote having been out of the UK for 11 years now but I check with my children who think like me as it is their future. I hope all the 65+ Tory stalwarts ask their children what they would like them to do on their behalf rather than arrogantly thinking that older is wiser. But they won’t because they know best.
    Fuck off. I have kids too, and I think for them far more than me, and I don't want them to become adults in a country torn apart by Corbyn-enabled Nationalism, bankrupted by Chavez style socialism, and with a democracy razed to the ground by extreme Remainerism.

    So, do one.
    The Johnson alternative is, I'm afraid, as equally bleak. You're just telling yourself it isn't.
  • nico67 said:

    Does anyone know whether YouGov will be publishing a new poll separate from the MRP this evening .

    I remember the last time they did .

    There won't according to Chris Curtis.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited December 2019

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?

    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Yes, absolutely. I saw the LD PPB where Berger spoke. She didn't mention anti Semitism once, but mentioned stopping Brexit over and over again. A marked change in tone.



    That ship may have sailed if the polls are right. The LibDems needed to have backed Labour in the last parliament in a "revoke and call an election" deal.
    The LDs entire election strategy has been 'Stop Brexit'. They will swallow any punishment and any backlash to make that happen. They will back Corbyn PM, I promise you.
    n a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.
    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    The LDs entire election strategy has been 'Stop Brexit'. They will swallow any punishment and any backlash to make that happen. They will back Corbyn PM, I promise you.

    "Too late unless they have a fair number of MPs in a hung parliament. Swinson should have acted in the last parliament instead of her cobblers to Corbyn message. Now there is more likely to be a Tory majority and fewer LibDems (not least because half their MPs were defectors, not elected as such)."

    Which they probably will have precisely because it's a hung parliament. 10, 15, 20, 25 seats - it's plenty enough. We know the Tories won't get any support, even from the DUP - so for them, it's a majority or nothing. It's as simple as that. I reckon it's on a knife edge, and unless that hallowed MRP polling everyone is clinging to is bang up-to-date, then it's not far off worthless IMO.

    I'm starting to seriously think now Boris has blown this election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    To be fair, some people did regard him as a demigod, and he was very old at the time of his death.
    I have often read on PB that people on the left of politics have no sense of humour. Your statement made me laugh out loud.

    Does that now make you a Tory?
    I sincerely hope not. I'd rather have pineapple on tonight's meat pizza!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?
    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Complete and utter nonsense. Of course the Lib Dems will not back Corbyn, just as they will not back Johnson. They have said so time after time. If the Conservatives or Labour want Lib Dem support, they know what they have to do. Corbyn and Johnson are both obstacles to any kind of co-operation.

    And then it would be on an issue by issue basis - no coalition this time. You Conservatives seem to forget that Lib Dems cannot go into coalition with anybody without the formal approval of the party. The Conservatives may be run like a dictatorship, but the Lib Dems are not.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Westminster Voting Intention (NI):

    DUP: 32% (+1)
    SF: 26% (=)
    ALL: 17% (-1)
    SDLP: 14% (-1)
    UUP: 12% (+2)

    Via @LucidTalk, 27-30 Nov.
    Changes w/ 30 Oct-1 Nov.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Byronic said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?

    This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
    Not everybody has enormous financial assets that they are desperate to protect, not everybody believes they have to help you protect those assets. A lot of people believe that there is much wrong with UK society and something needs to be done. A few people like me can’t vote for either of the lying bastards who are both intent on wrecking the UK in their own way. This will probably be my last vote having been out of the UK for 11 years now but I check with my children who think like me as it is their future. I hope all the 65+ Tory stalwarts ask their children what they would like them to do on their behalf rather than arrogantly thinking that older is wiser. But they won’t because they know best.
    Fuck off. I have kids too, and I think for them far more than me, and I don't want them to become adults in a country torn apart by Corbyn-enabled Nationalism, bankrupted by Chavez style socialism, and with a democracy razed to the ground by extreme Remainerism.

    So, do one.
    The Johnson alternative is, I'm afraid, as equally bleak. You're just telling yourself it isn't.
    What do you mean by "The Johnson alternative"?
  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Or will the BBC only say majority if the lower bound is above 326?
    They will say "majority" if their prediction is that one party will get 326 or more. Otherwise they will say "largest party"...or "tie".

    "Tie" will probably crash the Betfair website as hundreds of thousands check what result they've bet on.


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Byronic said:

    Floater said:

    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.

    eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard

    Bloody hell.

    If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
    it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
    I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
    You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
    I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies

    We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.

    On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife

    Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
    By your own admission, you are an international crossdressing male model transitioning to be a woman who has lately visited Antarctica and, now we are pleased to find, you have contacts in Truro. Truly we are blessed to have such an incredible visitation. However given your international galumphing and ready revenue stream in non-sterling currencies, I am at a loss to understand the panic. In the event of a Marxist takeover all you need do is take up residence outside the UK and bemoan the state of the country, whilst no doubt sighing dramatically out of the window into the sunset. It is the rest of us, with now dramatically constrained movement rights, who will suffer the state.

    I hope this reassures you.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Betfair still drifting. I know only small movements, but a long way from the sub 1.30 we had a couple of days ago. I think the market is uncertain.

    Just looked at it. It is 1.36. It was the same an hour ago and the same late morning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    I believe that bit. It was the dildo collector issue I have doubts over. The Oxford comma resolves that dilemma.
    The stories were that he was quite good at managing without such a thing!
  • ClippP said:

    franklyn said:

    Jason said:

    The LDs WILL back Corbyn, despite what they have said. He is their only route to stopping Brexit, and they know it. They have never once said they would like to stop Corbyn PM, just Boris. Over and over again.

    The DUP though - I cannot see them helping a lifelong IRA sympathiser into Downing Street. So where does that leave us?
    In a complete and utter nightmare for the foreseeable.

    That is nonsense. Do you really think that after all that Luciana Berger has been through they would really back Corbyn?
    Complete and utter nonsense. Of course the Lib Dems will not back Corbyn, just as they will not back Johnson. They have said so time after time. If the Conservatives or Labour want Lib Dem support, they know what they have to do. Corbyn and Johnson are both obstacles to any kind of co-operation.

    And then it would be on an issue by issue basis - no coalition this time. You Conservatives seem to forget that Lib Dems cannot go into coalition with anybody without the formal approval of the party. The Conservatives may be run like a dictatorship, but the Lib Dems are not.
    That seems strange from a party so committed to PR.
  • Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW
  • ClippP said:

    Complete and utter nonsense. Of course the Lib Dems will not back Corbyn, just as they will not back Johnson. They have said so time after time. If the Conservatives or Labour want Lib Dem support, they know what they have to do. Corbyn and Johnson are both obstacles to any kind of co-operation.

    And then it would be on an issue by issue basis - no coalition this time. You Conservatives seem to forget that Lib Dems cannot go into coalition with anybody without the formal approval of the party. The Conservatives may be run like a dictatorship, but the Lib Dems are not.

    So how would the LibDems vote on:

    a) A vote of NoConfidence in Boris Johnson?
    b) A vote of No Confidence in Jeremy Corbyn?
    c) A Corbyn Queen's Speech?
    d) A McDonnell budget?
  • The forced choice is rather alarming though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Jaysus - @FrancisUrquhart look away now.

    Just looking at the figures in 2017 and the day before the election, Cons were 2/9 OM and Electoral Calculus' prediction was for a 72 seat Cons majority.
  • The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    I know...you will set off off....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Henrietta said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Or will the BBC only say majority if the lower bound is above 326?
    They will say "majority" if their prediction is that one party will get 326 or more. Otherwise they will say "largest party"...or "tie".

    "Tie" will probably crash the Betfair website as hundreds of thousands check what result they've bet on.


    Would they really say tory majority if their central forecast was 327, but the range was from 300-350?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    RobD said:

    Henrietta said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Or will the BBC only say majority if the lower bound is above 326?
    They will say "majority" if their prediction is that one party will get 326 or more. Otherwise they will say "largest party"...or "tie".

    "Tie" will probably crash the Betfair website as hundreds of thousands check what result they've bet on.


    Would they really say tory majority if their central forecast was 327, but the range was from 300-350?
    They haven’t shown upper and lower limits since 1992.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Labour leave voters returing to Corbyn, no way of sugar coating it. That's curtains for a Tory majority.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    I believe that bit. It was the dildo collector issue I have doubts over. The Oxford comma resolves that dilemma.
    Clearly you all went to public schools or some other sort of lower quality establishment - if you had gone to a council school in the early seventies you would know that it is the semi-colon not the comma that is needed - Mrs Dart was never wrong about anything so "Nelson Mandela; an 800 year old demi-god and a dildo collector" would solve the problem (possibly)
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    wills66 said:

    I’m trying to psychologically prepare myself for the worst possible BONG!

    .....

    What’s your worst “Bong!” ?

    BONG!

    Tories: 317
    Labour: 262
    LibDem: 12
    SNP: 35
    Others: 30

    ;-)

    WillS.

    Point of order. To arrive at the same result as 2017 you would need:

    CON 317
    Labour 263

    As last time CON got 318, but then lost 1 to Speaker. This time, Labour will lose 1 to Speaker.

    And your total is 656. Excepting that......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    Labour leave voters returing to Corbyn, no way of sugar coating it. That's curtains for a Tory majority.
    It is something I have said from the start.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brexit in 7th place on that Ashcroft list
  • Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW

    No s**t Sherlock. Tactical voting is a myth.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Labour leave voters returing to Corbyn, no way of sugar coating it. That's curtains for a Tory majority.
    It is something I have said from the start.
    Yep. Plus the fieldwork was done before the majority of the shit storm over that photo.

    Hung parliament here we come.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Jason said:

    Labour leave voters returing to Corbyn, no way of sugar coating it. That's curtains for a Tory majority.
    Those figures have moved by 1% in the last week.
This discussion has been closed.