Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 polling and betting update

123468

Comments

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Stocky said:

    Byronic said:

    nichomar said:

    Byronic said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    And what if 2 million Remainers think like you, and lend Corbyn their vote, and then he GETS MOST SEATS, OR WINS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY?

    This path is insane. You cannot risk it. I am astonished by people who are prepared to do this.
    Not everybody has enormous financial assets that they are desperate to protect, not everybody believes they have to help you protect those assets. A lot of people believe that there is much wrong with UK society and something needs to be done. A few people like me can’t vote for either of the lying bastards who are both intent on wrecking the UK in their own way. This will probably be my last vote having been out of the UK for 11 years now but I check with my children who think like me as it is their future. I hope all the 65+ Tory stalwarts ask their children what they would like them to do on their behalf rather than arrogantly thinking that older is wiser. But they won’t because they know best.
    Fuck off. I have kids too, and I think for them far more than me, and I don't want them to become adults in a country torn apart by Corbyn-enabled Nationalism, bankrupted by Chavez style socialism, and with a democracy razed to the ground by extreme Remainerism.

    So, do one.
    The Johnson alternative is, I'm afraid, as equally bleak. You're just telling yourself it isn't.
    What do you mean by "The Johnson alternative"?
    The alternative to Corbyn of Johnson
  • I'm struggling to find Ashcroft'd final seats projection for each party. Should be interesting as it's a large sample.
  • Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Labour leave voters returing to Corbyn, no way of sugar coating it. That's curtains for a Tory majority.
    It is something I have said from the start.
    Yep. Plus the fieldwork was done before the majority of the shit storm over that photo.

    Hung parliament here we come.
    I have always thought Tories at very minimum 10% lead right up to polling day to compensate for this. It looks like it is more like 8-9% now.
  • The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    It looks like Labour undecideds (particularly Labour Leavers) have firmed up a bit behind Corbyn.

    We shouldn’t be surprised by that.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    The next voting intention you will see from @YouGov will be with our MRP at 10PM.

    The computer is still calculating these final numbers (even we don't know yet!) so anything you see beforehand is a lie.

    8086 processor with 64k RAM?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW

    No s**t Sherlock. Tactical voting is a myth.
    In some places but not others. Don't get suckered into knee-jerk tabloid think. In parts of remainia, outside of London, TV is going to be a big factor. Watch Surrey for example where is real anger against the Conservatives from Conservatives.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW

    No s**t Sherlock. Tactical voting is a myth.
    Not a myth but unlikely to occur except in by-elections where protest votes can occur because by-elections are rarely important.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    BluerBlue said:

    theakes said:

    I have never voted Labour in my life and I have been around a long time. But I am desperate to stop Johnson and his cronies. This interview, the taking of the phone etc really makes one think. I live in a Con/Lab seat, nobody else gets a shoe in at General Election time. I am coming round to actually doing it, despite the appalling leader Labour have, but Johnson has to be stopped. Somebody else will have to be in charge of the nuclear button, not Corbyn. If it gets a hung Parliament and another Referendum, it could be worth it. Still not finally decided, have a Postal vote and will leave it till the last possible moment.

    Fine, but don't delude yourself - if Corbyn is PM, he, and no one else, will have direct control over the use of our nuclear weapons. There is no "somebody else" apart from the Prime Minister.
    If Corbyn wins there will be no further EU referendum. Why would they want to waste time negotiating another deal when they have such an exciting programme to implement, one moreover that would be made more difficult were Britain still in the EU?

    But ... but ... but ... they’ve promised, you say. And you trust Corbyn and McDonnell do you?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Floater said:

    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.

    eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard

    Bloody hell.

    If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
    it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
    I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
    You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
    I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies

    We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.

    On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife

    Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
    By your own admission [...] you have contacts in Truro.
    Exactly like SeanT.

    Amazing coincidence especially as it's such a small city.
  • Are you channelling your inner SeanT ?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    kingbongo said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    I believe that bit. It was the dildo collector issue I have doubts over. The Oxford comma resolves that dilemma.
    Clearly you all went to public schools or some other sort of lower quality establishment - if you had gone to a council school in the early seventies you would know that it is the semi-colon not the comma that is needed - Mrs Dart was never wrong about anything so "Nelson Mandela; an 800 year old demi-god and a dildo collector" would solve the problem (possibly)
    (A former subeditor writes:)

    Semicolons work, but they do tend to break up the flow of the sentence.

    You can actually get the meaning across fine, without fussing about commas, if you simply change the list order. "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with a dildo collector, an 800-year-old demigod and Nelson Mandela." No ambiguity there. Less fun, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    It looks like Labour undecideds (particularly Labour Leavers) have firmed up a bit behind Corbyn.

    We shouldn’t be surprised by that.
    Given some of the Barnsley anecdotes I'm glad to hear it ! Need a Labour win in Barnsley Central
  • I would just drive off with them still stuck to the bus like the stuff toys you see stuck to the grills of big US trucks.
  • Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on
  • I think that preferred PM lead of Boris over Corbyn by 8% is about the same as the final forced choices in GE2017 where it was 9% and 10% respectively for May over Corbyn.
  • Strange telepathic snap of ideas about Mr Byronic, there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    The public has sent a message to Greta and ER with SUVs outselling electric vehicles 37 to 1.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW

    No s**t Sherlock. Tactical voting is a myth.
    I have changed my model to reflect the tactical voting % in that latest poll i.e. 39% of LD would switch vote if they thought the LDs had no chance and 44% of lab voters would vote tactically for LDs if they thought Labour had no chance. It has made no difference to the seat projections as my previous assumptions were fairly close to this poll.

  • HenriettaHenrietta Posts: 136
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Henrietta said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Or will the BBC only say majority if the lower bound is above 326?
    They will say "majority" if their prediction is that one party will get 326 or more. Otherwise they will say "largest party"...or "tie".

    "Tie" will probably crash the Betfair website as hundreds of thousands check what result they've bet on.


    Would they really say tory majority if their central forecast was 327, but the range was from 300-350?
    What I remember from 2017 when the exit poll was announced was a row of five hexagons, with the big one in the middle saying "Con 314", the subtitle saying "Exit Poll: Conservatives Largest Party", and no range referenced either in the graphic or the voiceover. I think if it was "Con 327" they'd say "Exit Poll: Conservative Majority of 4".
  • Are you channelling your inner SeanT ?
    I'm showing my liberal conservative roots by the advocating the use of rubber bullets, SeanT would advocate the use of live ammo and maybe MLRS trucks on these soap dodgers.

    My views are not coloured by this

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/extinction-rebellion-protest-great-ancoats-17388067
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    So, no change (OK, 1% change) on the previous week. I'm fascinated by the the 2% of Conservative Leave voters who think Corbyn would make a better PM than Johnson.

    WillS

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Henrietta said:

    RobD said:

    Henrietta said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If the bong goes bong and it says Tories largest Party does that mean they (probably) don't have a majority ?

    Or will the BBC only say majority if the lower bound is above 326?
    They will say "majority" if their prediction is that one party will get 326 or more. Otherwise they will say "largest party"...or "tie".

    "Tie" will probably crash the Betfair website as hundreds of thousands check what result they've bet on.


    Would they really say tory majority if their central forecast was 327, but the range was from 300-350?
    What I remember from 2017 when the exit poll was announced was a row of five hexagons, with the big one in the middle saying "Con 314", the subtitle saying "Exit Poll: Conservatives Largest Party", and no range referenced either in the graphic or the voiceover. I'm not sure what channel that was on.

    I remember that, and it might have been that their model thought conservatives not being the largest party was very unlikely, hence the call.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I would just drive off with them still stuck to the bus like the stuff toys you see stuck to the grills of big US trucks.
    Who does this serve? I don't think these brain dead idiots have thought it through
  • Pulpstar said:

    The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    It looks like Labour undecideds (particularly Labour Leavers) have firmed up a bit behind Corbyn.

    We shouldn’t be surprised by that.
    Given some of the Barnsley anecdotes I'm glad to hear it ! Need a Labour win in Barnsley Central
    They absolutely cannot help it.

    Like robots.
  • nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Won't it? Last one they were updating until the actual day of release.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Everyone waiting until tomorrow I would have thought. I think the MRP includes fieldwork up until today, doesn't it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited December 2019

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    The example I've seen is the book dedication:

    "To my parents, Ayn Rand and God." That would be fixed by the Oxford comma: "To my parents, Ayn Rand, and God."

    But, what if the dedication was:

    "To my mother, Ayn Rand and God". In that case the Oxford comma creates the ambiguity rather than removing it: "To my mother, Ayn Rand, and God"
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Won't it? Last one they were updating until the actual day of release.
    Really okay , I was mistaken . Still would be nice though to have some other polls for us to argue over ! Lol
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Are you channelling your inner SeanT ?
    I'm showing my liberal conservative roots by the advocating the use of rubber bullets, SeanT would advocate the use of live ammo and maybe MLRS trucks on these soap dodgers.

    My views are not coloured by this

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/extinction-rebellion-protest-great-ancoats-17388067
    My favourite was when the school-dodgers protested by blocking the trams, the least polluting transport in the city...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.

    We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Fucking yes! Now that's a campaign stunt that looks good! :smiley:
    Appealing to the moron vote? The spoof picture trump's the video.
    Someone accusing others of being morons in apostrophe shocker.
    I can only apologise, that really is unacceptable. I would add that my phone's autocorrect has helpfully changed it on my behalf, but why did it not also start the word with a capital letter too, in that instance? My use of the apostrophe is normally very good (I went to Grammar Schoo!). I did miss the lesson on appropriate use of the comma however.
    Your welcome.

    Plus don't get @TSE started on commas.
    Hey I'm fine with commas, it was my obsessive fans who had issues with my use of the Oxford comma.

    I mean if people didn't know how to use commas we wouldn't get brilliant things like this.


    I have always tried to avoid the Oxford comma. In the instance quoted it makes perfect sense to use it.
    The Oxford comma doesn't entirely solve that sentence. If you write "Highlights of his global tour include encounters with Nelson Mandela, an 800 year old demigod, and a dildo collector" then that still could be read as that Nelson Mandela is an 800 year old demigod.
    The example I've seen is the book dedication:

    "To my parents, Ayn Rand and God." That would be fixed by the Oxford comma: "To my parents, Ayn Rand, and God."

    But, what if the dedication was:

    "To my mother, Ayn Rand and God". In that case the Oxford comma creates the ambiguity rather than removing it: "To my mother, Ayn Rand, and God"

  • nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    My faith in the British public has been restored !

    They seem to hate Vox pops as much as me !
  • I would just drive off with them still stuck to the bus like the stuff toys you see stuck to the grills of big US trucks.
    Who does this serve? I don't think these brain dead idiots have thought it through
    On the contrary, XR has been extraordinarily successfully at raising the profile of climate change as an election issue. At the hustings in my Tory constituency yesterday, the candidates were almost falling over each other to big up their green credentials. Last time, it barely got a look-in.
  • Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    I had that at this time in 2017. Not this year but I am waiting the polls and anecdotes

    We will see
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    Pulpstar said:

    The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    It looks like Labour undecideds (particularly Labour Leavers) have firmed up a bit behind Corbyn.

    We shouldn’t be surprised by that.
    Given some of the Barnsley anecdotes I'm glad to hear it ! Need a Labour win in Barnsley Central
    They absolutely cannot help it.

    Like robots.
    They'll take a huge hit in Barnsley and Doncaster but have enough voters to hold on.
  • I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.

    We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.

    And Jon Ashworth helped today then.

    And it is not poison for the conservatives. Millions back them on it
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?
  • Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    No it hasn't.

    Ashworth was less important than the ash down under. That's not entirely true. It was a story but it came and went very fast and is just another that everyone knows already i.e. 'we know Corbyn is shit but ...' Same for the Alan Sugar headline. It's been done before.

    The irony of the Ashworth bit is that it has kept the NHS in the news (Labour's undisputed strong card right now) and pushed Brexit back (the Cons strong card).

    But more importantly there have been loads of these minor stories rumbling all election and another today.

    The NHS continues to be a really big issue out there.

    But we shall see.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited December 2019

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermine the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.

    I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.

    The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    Obv not Jewish, then.
  • Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    Is he Jewish?
  • Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    By 'good London constituency polling' you mean the Tories winning seats they held in 1997?
  • Jason said:

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermines the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.

    I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.

    The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
    This is a very good point.
  • Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    No
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now

    Probably not much, but the final polls are usually larger samples so should give us a better picture.
  • Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
  • Jason said:

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermine the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.

    I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.

    The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
    I don’t think that makes any difference.

    Those who vote early are the most committed and decisive, not swing voters.
  • Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    We have to hope the Tory targeting is watertight this time.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    Any thoughts on the weather? It's going to be very grim: wet and gales in the south-west from early on, then heavy rain across the south and north from lunchtime, lasting much of the day up north where it will fall as sleet and snow even to low levels.

    I'm not old and had today off but I haven't gone outside, cancelled two things I was going to, and if it was polling day I'm not sure I would have bothered. It's foul out there.
  • The crucial question is whether the capturing of the Labour party by a group of fanatics is perceived clearly by a large enough proportion of those who would otherwise vote labour. The LP is in effect a false flag operation at this election. Will enough people recognise this or will it require the exercise of power by Corbyn and McDonell and all the risk that implies?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019

    Jason said:

    nico67 said:

    Amazing that two days out and not a single poll has appeared yet .

    If there are some late changes then won’t the MRP have missed that given its fieldwork won’t include the last few days .

    Very very doubtful anything will change VI now
    Labour supporters tend to firm up in the very last few days, and some on polling day itself.

    That’s why the next 48 hours are so crucial.

    Boris needs to throw every feline in Asia onto the table.
    What can he do though? Start making rash promises that undermine the Tories economic credibility? If he does that, Labour might get a majority.

    I just don't see what else can be done in the final few days of a campaign that will have any effect unless they are mistakes.

    The one thing we have largely skipped over are the postal votes. Sent when the Tories were cruising to a majority, they might save him.
    I don’t think that makes any difference.

    Those who vote early are the most committed and decisive, not swing voters.
    But many swing voters may not turn out.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.

    We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.

    And Jon Ashworth helped today then.

    And it is not poison for the conservatives. Millions back them on it
    I shouldn`t be poison for the Tories, they are spending a heck of a lot of money on it - and have after all been in power for 44 years of its 73 years` existence.

    Labour is doing its best to paint a false picture and it seems to me that a lot of the media is happy to go along with their narrative.
  • Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    Really? Haven't looked at it yet. What's happened? Labour retaining their 'northern firewall' or making gains elsewhere to counter its loss?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    1. It's in a worst state than at anytime in my lifetime. That's pretty empirical.
    https://fullfact.org/election-2019/accident-emergency-waiting-2019/

    2. It's winter. People feel it more and there are far more germs flying around
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Foul day for canvassing. It's going to be very similar on Thursday.

    Anyway, watched The Two Popes this afternoon. Two towering performances from Hopkins and Pryce.

    Netflix is going to be in the Oscars again.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    No
    I wish I had your faith Big G. Ashcroft's polling shows the majority of the traffic flowing back to Labour. We can't wish it away because we don't like it.
  • Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I would just drive off with them still stuck to the bus like the stuff toys you see stuck to the grills of big US trucks.
    Who does this serve? I don't think these brain dead idiots have thought it through
    On the contrary, XR has been extraordinarily successfully at raising the profile of climate change as an election issue. At the hustings in my Tory constituency yesterday, the candidates were almost falling over each other to big up their green credentials. Last time, it barely got a look-in.

    I would just drive off with them still stuck to the bus like the stuff toys you see stuck to the grills of big US trucks.
    Who does this serve? I don't think these brain dead idiots have thought it through
    On the contrary, XR has been extraordinarily successfully at raising the profile of climate change as an election issue. At the hustings in my Tory constituency yesterday, the candidates were almost falling over each other to big up their green credentials. Last time, it barely got a look-in.
    I was thinking the political short term. You'll have seen the reaction on here.
  • I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    What Labour says about the NHS is not the problem for the Conservatives.

    It is that in a winter election, the NHS is under strain, so lots of voters who have been to hospital will have their own experience of delays and trolleys in corridors and small boys on the floor, and so will their friends and family.

    Personal experience trumps tractor stats every time.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    In terms of the turnout one big change in the forecast at one stage it looked like we might get some warnings for strong winds .

    Now it just looks like a typical crap weather day .
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
    The Guardian is scraping the bottom of the barrel on the NHS, so desperately, the barrel has complained to OFCOM. This is their MAIN headline at the moment:



    "'I was hacked,' says woman whose account claimed hospital boy photo was staged"

    I kid you not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy

    It wouldn't have made Labourlist six months ago.
  • Barnesian said:

    Britain elects

    Could tactical voting really decide the election result?

    New polling says most Labour and Liberal Democrat voters will still vote for their preferred candidate, even if they’re sure they can’t win.

    Read more:
    https://t.co/zqSe3VtQtW

    No s**t Sherlock. Tactical voting is a myth.
    I have changed my model to reflect the tactical voting % in that latest poll i.e. 39% of LD would switch vote if they thought the LDs had no chance and 44% of lab voters would vote tactically for LDs if they thought Labour had no chance. It has made no difference to the seat projections as my previous assumptions were fairly close to this poll.

    Still far too high. Try putting a decimal point in it. 3.9 and 4.4 what does that do?
  • Jason said:

    Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    No
    I wish I had your faith Big G. Ashcroft's polling shows the majority of the traffic flowing back to Labour. We can't wish it away because we don't like it.
    I am not wishing it away to be honest

    I am more relaxed and certainly not panicking

    We will see
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    What Labour says about the NHS is not the problem for the Conservatives.

    It is that in a winter election, the NHS is under strain, so lots of voters who have been to hospital will have their own experience of delays and trolleys in corridors and small boys on the floor, and so will their friends and family.

    Personal experience trumps tractor stats every time.
    Yes, I agree. One of the reasons I've got connniptions is that I've had family members say, in the last coupla days: Well actually the NHS really IS looking very shoddy, something has to be done, who will do that best...

    And this from non Labour voters.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    No it hasn't.

    Ashworth was less important than the ash down under. That's not entirely true. It was a story but it came and went very fast and is just another that everyone knows already i.e. 'we know Corbyn is shit but ...' Same for the Alan Sugar headline. It's been done before.

    The irony of the Ashworth bit is that it has kept the NHS in the news (Labour's undisputed strong card right now) and pushed Brexit back (the Cons strong card).

    But more importantly there have been loads of these minor stories rumbling all election and another today.

    The NHS continues to be a really big issue out there.

    But we shall see.
    Nice reference to NZ disaster
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019
    I don't think a hung parliament is nailed on at all, yet. Anything in the range 0-25, and slightly less likely into the low 30s, seems pretty possible at this moment, to me.
  • Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
    The Guardian is scraping the bottom of the barrel on the NHS, so desperately, the barrel has complained to OFCOM. This is their MAIN headline at the moment:



    "'I was hacked,' says woman whose account claimed hospital boy photo was staged"

    I kid you not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy

    It wouldn't have made Labourlist six months ago.
    Yes, trivial in itself, but a number of high-profile journalists of the Boris persuasion ran with it to slur the little boy's family.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Nothing drastic, just the usual stuff of a well-diversified portfolio with a high proportion of investments which are not linked to the UK economy, including a largish chunk domiciled abroad, and maximising use of pensions and ISAs. The latter point is on the basis that those wouldn't be the first targets: they are much more likely to restrict new investment well before it gets to the point that they start having to raid existing ones, and I wouldn't expect a Corbyn-led government to last very long.

    You can only mitigate risk, you can't eliminate it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    1. It's in a worst state than at anytime in my lifetime. That's pretty empirical.
    https://fullfact.org/election-2019/accident-emergency-waiting-2019/

    2. It's winter. People feel it more and there are far more germs flying around
    "Looking at data which goes back to 2010" :-o
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Are you not getting overly negative about the Tories chances . Everything is in their favour to get a decent majority . I just can’t see them not getting that and I’d love to be proved wrong .
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Byronic said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Seems to be an amount of irrational panic going on here with some conservatives

    To date I have seen no evidence similar to 2017 that the vote share is falling and only yesteday there were good Welsh and London constituency polling

    For me tonights 10pm poll will be the interesting one

    Most everything else is noise. Keep calm and carry on

    Impossible to keep calm after what has been relentlessly terrible news for Boris for two days and counting. He is the one who will attract Labour leavers, not the Conservative Party.

    To quote a well worn line, I have a bad feeling about this.

    You don't think today has been a bad news day for Labour?
    Yes , terrible . It stopped much momentum from developing from yesterday. Hard to know how much impact this will have because whilst we in here obsess over every twist and turn a lot of the public don’t .

    Both main parties have had a crap day each . What will the final day bring ?
    The Guardian is scraping the bottom of the barrel on the NHS, so desperately, the barrel has complained to OFCOM. This is their MAIN headline at the moment:



    "'I was hacked,' says woman whose account claimed hospital boy photo was staged"

    I kid you not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy

    It wouldn't have made Labourlist six months ago.
    Yes, trivial in itself, but a number of high-profile journalists of the Boris persuasion ran with it to slur the little boy's family.
    The attempted cover up will always do more harm than the original story.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Henrietta said:


    What I remember from 2017 when the exit poll was announced was a row of five hexagons....

    There's a whole generation of TV executives brought up on Blockbusters

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    By the way, if anyone hasn't read Adam Kay's This is Going to Hurt, then you really should.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/This-Going-Hurt-Secret-Diaries/dp/1509858636/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=this+is+going+to+hurt&qid=1575997409&sr=8-1
  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20
    wills66 said:

    So, no change (OK, 1% change) on the previous week. I'm fascinated by the the 2% of Conservative Leave voters who think Corbyn would make a better PM than Johnson.

    WillS

    That and the fact that when asked what election-related events they could remember from the last two weeks, 37% said "none" and 21% said "lies". Suggests that the reactions expressed here to Ashworth-gate, Boris and the hospital photo, Andrew Neil etc. might not mirror those of the electorate as a whole who are either blissfully unaware of them or assume that the stories are complete fabrications.
  • camel said:

    Henrietta said:


    What I remember from 2017 when the exit poll was announced was a row of five hexagons....

    There's a whole generation of TV executives brought up on Blockbusters

    Don't you mean Blackbusters?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Bloody Nora.

    That Ashcroft poll screams Hung Parliament, Tory Largest Party, to me.

    Anyone else get that vibe?

    Really? Haven't looked at it yet. What's happened? Labour retaining their 'northern firewall' or making gains elsewhere to counter its loss?
    First. They're shoring up the wall.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    MattW said:

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    1. It's in a worst state than at anytime in my lifetime. That's pretty empirical.
    https://fullfact.org/election-2019/accident-emergency-waiting-2019/

    2. It's winter. People feel it more and there are far more germs flying around
    "Looking at data which goes back to 2010" :-o
    You're sounding desperate.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Buy Euros.
    How? I know how to buy stocks, bonds, shares, you name it, but how do you convert large sums of cash sterling into large sums of cash euro?
    A metal Revolut account.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    nico67 said:

    Byronic said:

    Norman Smith

    Jeremy Corbyn says he stands by @JonAshworth but says he has "a rather odd sense of humour."

    They'll soon knock that odd sense of humour out of him in the re-education camp.
    Are you offshoring or ringfencing your assets?

    Seriously. What are you doing to hedge against a HP and Corbyn in power?
    Are you not getting overly negative about the Tories chances . Everything is in their favour to get a decent majority . I just can’t see them not getting that and I’d love to be proved wrong .
    We're just seeing peoples still cautious aftet 2017, I think. Heightened anxiety.
  • I understand that Johnson has all but confirmed he would proceed with HS2 today, guess he is now calculating more benefit to be seen to be investing in the north than losing votes in the south.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    MattW said:

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    1. It's in a worst state than at anytime in my lifetime. That's pretty empirical.
    https://fullfact.org/election-2019/accident-emergency-waiting-2019/

    2. It's winter. People feel it more and there are far more germs flying around
    "Looking at data which goes back to 2010" :-o
    Do we know how old Mysticrose is? :p
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives. That picture yesterday may have cost them dearly, following on from the Andrew Neil moment when Johnson decided to channel his inner Theresa May.

    We shall see. MRP may cheer up the tory waverers on here, until tomorrow night's eve-of-poll polls which won't.

    Then how do you explain that the group in the population that uses the NHS the most votes solid Tory?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited December 2019
    I just sense that Labour have far more people on the ground, yet again, than the Tories, not sure why this is so, other than that Labour is far more successful in attracting the younger voters.
    Half expecting that the Tories will now struggle to win an overall majority, suspect they are heading for 335 seats at best and maybe a 10-20 majority or thereabouts, which will make their task difficult if they have any meaningful number of rebels. Poor, low key campaign by the Blue Team, despite having far and away more money to spend than their rivals. They've never succeeded in replacing Margaret Thatcher's Saatchi & Saatchi, Tim Bell, etc.
  • Byronic said:

    I may be wrong but I think the NHS is pure poison for the Conservatives.

    The NHS is Labour's stick to beat the Tories with at literally every general election in my lifetime though. I see absolutely no reason why this election it will be any more a significant.
    What Labour says about the NHS is not the problem for the Conservatives.

    It is that in a winter election, the NHS is under strain, so lots of voters who have been to hospital will have their own experience of delays and trolleys in corridors and small boys on the floor, and so will their friends and family.

    Personal experience trumps tractor stats every time.
    Yes, I agree. One of the reasons I've got connniptions is that I've had family members say, in the last coupla days: Well actually the NHS really IS looking very shoddy, something has to be done, who will do that best...

    And this from non Labour voters.
    If anyone is talking about the NHS Boris is losing.

    He needs to do ANYTHING to get the subject off that, not least of which being that if the donkeys vote Labour they’ll actually make it even worse.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    woah sharp movement on the nom markets
  • Betfair out to 1.4 now....I sense bad news incoming.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The forced choice is rather alarming though.
    It looks like Labour undecideds (particularly Labour Leavers) have firmed up a bit behind Corbyn.

    We shouldn’t be surprised by that.
    Given some of the Barnsley anecdotes I'm glad to hear it ! Need a Labour win in Barnsley Central
    I'm not convinced there are many Labour undecideds here. Those who may go have gone.

    Still Labour by 5k plus though, I'd say.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited December 2019
    Big Betfair move last 5 mins - bad news for Con must be coming.

    Con Maj 1.42
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    edited December 2019
    Boris could say he’s “listened” and pledge even more cash to the NHS, but that almost smells like panic and makes it *the* subject the very day before election day.

    I can’t see any scenario in which that’s a good thing.

    Far better to dead-cat the shit out of it and talk about Getting Brexit Done.
This discussion has been closed.