That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.
If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor. The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
People know about Corbyn's racism and if it was going to put people off from voting Labour it would have already done so. Boris though has run a cautious campaign by his standards, perhaps far too careful in fact and so his "gaffe" may be all what many voters will remember from it. Any nervousness at CCHQ is well justified with :Labour on 36% at ICM.
A word of caution for Labour voters too, though. That 36% is the very highest of all Labour's polling, and is at odds with the vast majority of the other polling. Talk of a landslide and a big majority for the Tories is for the birds as well.
Boris needed a gaffe free, incident free final few days and that story is still making headline news. I'm afraid a hung parliament is now a real possibility - and the total nightmare that will ensue.
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
That thought has been nagging me for a while too. The polling companies have lots of clever statisticians working for them but they may be working with very inadequate data. I think that it is now much more difficult to sample opinion than it was due to different life styles and difficulty of cold calling by phone.
Are there any objective proxies we can use? I always paid a lot of attention to council by-election results for trends but they do not apply during the campaign. Data from social media (views, likes etc.) is transient and not clear what it means. Anecdotal stuff is interesting but much will be biased or fake.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
My guess for the YouGov MRP is a reduction in the Tory maj from 68 to between 40 and 50, with closer to 50 more likely. The reason is that since the previous study Labour is up about 2% at the expense of the LDs.
Ok, let's take the register. Had anybody bet actual money on this election and if so, how much? I have bet £270 (150 at 2/5 and 120 at 1/3) on Con Maj. Sandpit has bet I think 750 also on Con Maj. If you have bet, please say how much and on who.
Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -
Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"
It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.
If “another great day on the doorstep” tweets from party activists count as evidence, we are in trouble.
Quite, they're hardly going to say "we're f****d", they're not Jon Ashworth.
That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.
If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor. The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
He had no idea what was on the phone
It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.
My subjective impression is that the worst thing for BJ is people reading descriptions of the issue rather than watching the video.
What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..
The mother faked the photo. The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it. Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist. Boris didn't want to look at porn.
Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
That was me, it's not her fault, but she chose to let him lie on the floor, he was not placed there nor treated there. Those are the facts. Alongside the fact the NHS is under pressure and beds are scarce in some departments.
The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'
So, to risk being exposed as a Russian/CCHQ (which is it supposed to be?) bot, I have several research collaborators who work at LGI... but regrettably none of them had anything to say other than it has indeed been rather busy in the past few days.
Listening to the Sky news focus group on Telford this morning (possibly from yesterday) it struck me that the voters there had very different reactions to the focus groups in the leave voting northern red wall seats. There was more consideration of the issues and less focus on Brexit.
Is it possible that the Tories pick up a swathe of big odds outsider heavy leave northern seats but Labour actually hang on in some of the much closer Midlands marginals?
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
That thought has been nagging me for a while too. The polling companies have lots of clever statisticians working for them but they may be working with very inadequate data. I think that it is now much more difficult to sample opinion than it was due to different life styles and difficulty of cold calling by phone.
Are there any objective proxies we can use? I always paid a lot of attention to council by-election results for trends but they do not apply during the campaign. Data from social media (views, likes etc.) is transient and not clear what it means. Anecdotal stuff is interesting but much will be biased or fake.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
YouGov does what they can to broaden their panel. Obviously having a million people to start with is a big help. The cash incentive makes it appealing especially to lower income people. They hardly ever do political questions at the front of the survey - normally the VI questions appear at the end of a long survey on brands or some consumer subject, thus avoiding those people only wanting to do political polls. Even for today’s panellist update I had to do fifteen minutes of questions about broadband and telephony first.
But it still must come down to weighting, in the end - and if you are in a hard to reach group you’re going to be asked more often and upweighted more often, which is the nub of OGH’s old ‘advice’ linked upthread.
The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.
I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.
I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?
The frequency of the surveys has reduced significantly over recent years, doubtless as more and more people sign up. It takes eighteen months to two years to chalk up £50 nowadays.
The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'
What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..
The mother faked the photo. The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it. Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist. Boris didn't want to look at porn.
Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
That was me, it's not her fault, but she chose to let him lie on the floor, he was not placed there nor treated there. Those are the facts. Alongside the fact the NHS is under pressure and beds are scarce in some departments.
Ah, thanks. I recollected it but didn't find (or look, to be fair) for the post.
Yes, no one forced the child to lie on the floor, but I don't think it was a bad choice - chairs may be unsuitable, also falling risk if parent(s) also fatigued and might not be able to watch close enough/react quick enough. Likewise with holding.
Do you think it would have been any better if the pic had been with him lying across a couple of chairs? Just trying to understand your angle - do you think the mother chose the floor to maximise impact? It just seems like a reasonable least bad option to me. Taking and publicising the photo can be questioned, but again sending it first (I think?) to the Yorkshire Post makes me think of it as more trying to highlight a local issue than make a wider political point. Of course, we'll never know for sure and I'm aware there's a subsequent Mirror story.
Oh and yes, if you hage around enough A&E departments there will be people sleeping on floors photo ops aplenty over many years and multiple governments, but the media still love that kind of thing more than the reporting of stats (which have not been going well in A&E).
What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..
The mother faked the photo. The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it. Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist. Boris didn't want to look at porn.
Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
That was me, it's not her fault, but she chose to let him lie on the floor, he was not placed there nor treated there. Those are the facts. Alongside the fact the NHS is under pressure and beds are scarce in some departments.
That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.
If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor. The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
He had no idea what was on the phone
It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.
Sadly Boris is very good at escaping and/or avoiding the unwanted interview so I suspect the Journalist went for the direct approach as he feared nothing else would work.
The Guardian is reporting that 'The senior firefighter who revoked the order for Grenfell Tower residents to stay in the burning tower block has been appointed commissioner of the London fire brigade.'
Is this in the gift of the Govt or the Mayor?
Looks like the Mayor.
So in a couple of weeks it will be "Who? Me?"
Also suggests that Johnson appointed the previous 'stay put' incumbent!
Re my earlier chat with IanB2 on the Isle of Wight, my Green friend claims that they're doing a late-surge campaign there and mailed me the following -
Spent yesterday talking to voters on the #IsleofWight. There are many unhappy longtime Tory voters who won't switch to Labour for a host of reasons, but will #VoteGreen"
It seems more the Brighton 2010 plan of coming completely out of the blue in a sort of off-grid grassroots surprise, whereas Bristol West seems more like keenly replicating the kind of seat that Brighton is.
If “another great day on the doorstep” tweets from party activists count as evidence, we are in trouble.
Agreed, it's not much to go on. Bristol West must be the much more realistic one for them, looking at the kind of seat, but I do like the romance of them coming through on the Isle of Wight - it has a sort of Passport to Pimlico quality, mixed with an area I've been to there with the sort of characters who've lived there since the 1970 Isle of Wight festival.
Ok, let's take the register. Had anybody bet actual money on this election and if so, how much? I have bet £270 (150 at 2/5 and 120 at 1/3) on Con Maj. Sandpit has bet I think 750 also on Con Maj. If you have bet, please say how much and on who.
Do you want the long answer or the short one? The short one is that I've bet on 27 constituencies for various parties, I've sold in eight of the Sporting Index 25-10-0 markets [effectively bets on who will come third], I've bet on turnout being 65% to 70%, I've sold the LibDems on the spreads at 45, I bought Con on the spreads a few weeks ago but have already closed out for a profit, I've bet on the BXP getting less than 5% vote share [that was a goody!], on Plaid getting 4 or fewer seats, on Con getting over 317.5, and the BXP getting 0. And I've probably wasted a bit on the LibDems getting 30-39 seats, and SCon 1-5.
What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..
The mother faked the photo. The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it. Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist. Boris didn't want to look at porn.
Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
That was me, it's not her fault, but she chose to let him lie on the floor, he was not placed there nor treated there. Those are the facts. Alongside the fact the NHS is under pressure and beds are scarce in some departments.
Ah, thanks. I recollected it but didn't find (or look, to be fair) for the post.
Yes, no one forced the child to lie on the floor, but I don't think it was a bad choice - chairs may be unsuitable, also falling risk if parent(s) also fatigued and might not be able to watch close enough/react quick enough. Likewise with holding.
Do you think it would have been any better if the pic had been with him lying across a couple of chairs? Just trying to understand your angle - do you think the mother chose the floor to maximise impact? It just seems like a reasonable least bad option to me. Taking and publicising the photo can be questioned, but again sending it first (I think?) to the Yorkshire Post makes me think of it as more trying to highlight a local issue than make a wider political point. Of course, we'll never know for sure and I'm aware there's a subsequent Mirror story.
I just think the whole thing is overblown and indicative of us being 48 hours from voting, and since the initial reaction (and then apology) of the PM it's been way overdone by all concerned, and indeed over defended. Busy hospital in winter, kid gets a rough trot, nobody was hurt, politicians seize on it like vultures
That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.
If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor. The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
He had no idea what was on the phone
It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
That ICM must be causing nervousness at Tory HQ . Late swings are dangerous. Floorgate possibly to blame.
That's exactly what I thought - the timing. It will be fresh in people's minds when they vote - especially Labour leavers and possible Tory remainers. I just can't help thinking it's going to do serious damage. The Ashworth story is funny, watching him wriggle around like the little worm he is is delicious - but it won't make a jot of difference.
If the Tories don't win, Boris will be gone, Corbyn will be PM and they'll legislate to allow EU citizens and 16 yr olds the vote in a jiffy. Sorry once again to all Tory voters here to be so down about this, I truly hope and pray I am wrong - but moments like photogate have historically done profound damage. Reminds a little of the Gillian Duffy story re Gordon Brown.
Jesus man, his mother let him lie on the floor,he wasn't put there by nurses. She decided not to hold him, or put two chairs together with coats on but to let him lie on the floor then photograph it. Its horrible there was a busy night and a lack of beds but nobody forced him onto the floor. The NHS being under pressure isn't a new revelation
I know, I agree with you, but it was Boris's reaction to it. It will put doubt into voters' minds, there's nothing you or I can do about it.
You think that will sway thousands or millions of voters but constant stories about Corbyns racism wont? He put a phone in his pocket, it was a gaffe. It's gone now.
He was like a frightened rabbit in the headlights. He panicked, thinking that he was being tricked in some way by the journo, so was caught on the spot. He must be kicking himself.
He had no idea what was on the phone
It could have been a nasty porn photo fir example “BJ caught viewing porn” headlines follow
Exactly it could have been anything - look at TMay's P45 at conference. He didn't want to be ambushed although he was of course ambushed. Shoving anything under the PM's nose and saying "look at this" is not good journalism. He was too desperate to get the scoop. He could easily have brought it up differently.
I bet the first thing that came into his mind was 'this is a candid camera moment'. Politicians are shit scared of everything these days and it's only going to get worse.
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
That thought has been nagging me for a while too. The polling companies have lots of clever statisticians working for them but they may be working with very inadequate data. I think that it is now much more difficult to sample opinion than it was due to different life styles and difficulty of cold calling by phone.
Are there any objective proxies we can use? I always paid a lot of attention to council by-election results for trends but they do not apply during the campaign. Data from social media (views, likes etc.) is transient and not clear what it means. Anecdotal stuff is interesting but much will be biased or fake.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
That is possibly the smartest question ever posed on PB. Polling used to be face-to-face until about 1992, when after the 1992 debacle they switched to telephone polling. Response rates from telephone polling continued to drop and after 2015/7 pollsters moved from telephone polling to panel polling
Opinion polls are good predictors of "who will get the most votes" but less good at more complicated things like "overall majority". They occasionally fail. Betting odds are marginally better (gamblers will discard a rogue poll) but will also fail occasionally. Money spent may be a good predictor but numbers spent are difficult to derive in real time before an election, so are too logistically difficult to use. Modellers are also good but since in most cases their inputs scale to the polls or bets they also fail, and fail at the same time.
Alternate proxies suggested by PB personnel include net satisfaction ratings ( @MikeSmithson ), preferred PM ( @HYUFD ) and Con-LD lead ( @rcs1000 ?)
When you find out which is the better one, let me know.
One group of experts who devoted whole lifetimes to refining and fine tuning an incredibly sophisticated model, were the Ptolemaic astronomers. They called it "saving the phenomena." And every time they did it they said "There! We've changed the weightings and backtested it and it now perfectly predicts the 2017 eclipse."
Didn't get a chance to comment on the last thread. My thought for Thursday - could we see the Liberals losing more seats than they gain!
I assume you are betting heavily on that.
LibDems need to beat their 2017 vote share by a margin and take succour from being 2nd in a lot of constituencies.
That`s what I`m hoping for. Building block for the future.
Selling Lib Dem seats at 19 seems like a very brave stance. I don't know about the other ones but in North Oxford the Tories have basically given up retaking the seat.
No such seat. Do you mean Oxford West and Abingdon?
One group of experts who devoted whole lifetimes to refining and fine tuning an incredibly sophisticated model, were the Ptolemaic astronomers. They called it "saving the phenomena." And every time they did it they said "There! We've changed the weightings and backtested it and it now perfectly predicts the 2017 eclipse."
Hence the oscillation between over-predicting Labour and over-predicting the Tories.
I trust that they know that it would be a criminal offence to publish the results of that poll before the polls close at 10pm
I think YouGov had an on-the-day poll that was discussed in the results program after 10pm. Perhaps this will be similar?
Or they're doing it for a private organization (a bank or betting group) who could make money out of having better information than the rest of the market.
Ok, let's take the register. Had anybody bet actual money on this election and if so, how much? I have bet £270 (150 at 2/5 and 120 at 1/3) on Con Maj. Sandpit has bet I think 750 also on Con Maj. If you have bet, please say how much and on who.
I have bet around £300, about £150 of that on constituency bets, mostly on the Tories in places like Bishop Auckland, Finchley and Golders Green etc. But also on Labour in Hastings and Rye (no longer think this will win) and Lib Dems in Guildford (reckon this could win). I also took the 4/1 on the Tories taking Westmorland and Lonsdale which I think is a loser but still EV+ at those odds.
The other £150 split between bets on on Lib Dem seat bands (very green on 10-19, slightly green on 20-19, break even on 0-9) and individual bets on Con seats over 340, Con share of vote 40-44.999% and overall Con majority.
The woman denied posting the allegation that four-year-old Jack Willment-Barr’s mother placed him on the floor specifically to take the picture which became symbolic of the NHS’s troubles after it appeared on the front page of Monday’s Daily Mirror.
“I was hacked. I am not a nurse and I certainly don’t know anyone in Leeds,” said the woman, whose name the Guardian is withholding because she says she has received death threats. “I’ve had to delete everything as I have had death threats to myself and my children.”...
Ok, let's take the register. Had anybody bet actual money on this election and if so, how much? I have bet £270 (150 at 2/5 and 120 at 1/3) on Con Maj. Sandpit has bet I think 750 also on Con Maj. If you have bet, please say how much and on who.
Over 70 constituencies, a few Over/Unders but no spread bets. Not sure what I`ve staked in total, I`ll tot up after the event. prabably £2,500+.
I havent done it yet but have a you gov v intention poll to do this evening...
One thing that makes me wary of polls is how many people on here seem to do them. If I wanted an accurate read of public opinion then people on here are the last people I would want to see included. No matter how much you weight and screen on demographics, the inclusion of a highly self-selected and unusual group is likely to add a lot of noise to the results.
One thing that often surprises me is how many people I know from all walks of life do YouGov polls.
I think the draw of an occasional £50 gets lots of people involved. I'm sure that as a group, people on here are overrepresented, but make up a tiny proportion of the overall YouGov pool.
I bet users of sites like moneysavingexpert are equally overrepresented.
Didnt realise they had a million people in the Uk in their pool. Presumably the £50 is very very occasional if you get an average of 50p per poll?
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
email from Labour, sent to me as Liberal democrat because that is what I registered on their site as::
"Liberal democrat, election day is nearly upon us and we're preparing for the most ambitious, coordinated campaign this country has ever seen.
Already we're smashing records with our election activities, and on Thursday we're expecting tens of thousands of people to flock to key areas where our campaigning will make the biggest impact.
Our incredible people-powered movement will take on the Tories and their billionaire backers. Together, thousands of us knocking on doors in every corner of the country, we can win a Labour government for the many not the few.
Already got a plan? Great! If not, Loughborough needs your help. Here's where to go."
Loughborough was Nicky Morgan's with an 8% Tory lead last time
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
Let's be honest, faced with the possibility of Corbyn as PM any sane person will be as jittery as hell right up to the end of the campaign. If the polls show a big Tory lead the fear is complacency, if the pools narrow it is a late Labour surge. Then there is the constant nagging fear that the polls may be way off reality because of social, cultural, demographic and political changes that have not been accounted for in these strange times!
Ok, let's take the register. Had anybody bet actual money on this election and if so, how much? I have bet £270 (150 at 2/5 and 120 at 1/3) on Con Maj. Sandpit has bet I think 750 also on Con Maj. If you have bet, please say how much and on who.
about £220 so far I think spread over:
SNP under 47.5 LD under 38.5 Plaid under 4.5
Con - bristol east, southport, totnes, erith+thamesmead, mansfield, hazel grove Lab - leicester east, cardiff west, portsmouth south Green - bristol west
couple of stinkers there I regret but happy overall.
Let's be honest, faced with the possibility of Corbyn as PM any sane person will be as jittery as hell right up to the end of the campaign. If the polls show a big Tory lead the fear is complacency, if the pools narrow it is a late Labour surge. Then there is the constant nagging fear that the polls may be way off reality because of social, cultural, demographic and political changes that have not been accounted for in these strange times!
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
email from Labour, sent to me as Liberal democrat because that is what I registered on their site as::
"Liberal democrat, election day is nearly upon us and we're preparing for the most ambitious, coordinated campaign this country has ever seen.
Already we're smashing records with our election activities, and on Thursday we're expecting tens of thousands of people to flock to key areas where our campaigning will make the biggest impact.
Our incredible people-powered movement will take on the Tories and their billionaire backers. Together, thousands of us knocking on doors in every corner of the country, we can win a Labour government for the many not the few.
Already got a plan? Great! If not, Loughborough needs your help. Here's where to go."
Loughborough was Nicky Morgan's with an 8% Tory lead last time
He didn't have much choice in the matter. He's trying to make a joke out of it, but he said those things and it's obvious to anyone serious he meant them. Will it make a jot of difference at the election? Nope.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
He didn't have much choice in the matter. He's trying to make a joke out of it, but he said those things and it's obvious to anyone serious he meant them. Will it make a jot of difference at the election? Nope.
Then why the panic over anything Boris or a tory says or does?
The security thing on its own should be enough to disqualify him
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I am not outraged by it at all, I just think it shows an honest reflection of both our PMs character and his ability to respond to something he hasnt already scripted a charming bumbling reply to. Its hardly him doing anything to be outraged by. More like disappointed and disillusioned that we have such a poor leader.
If he is wary about an ambush, he could be more open and honest with the public in the first place.
What's the Tories latest line on Floorgate? So far we've had..
The mother faked the photo. The mother was appalled by Corbyn's politicizing it. Boris was terribly wronged by that journalist. Boris didn't want to look at porn.
Latest I've seen on here is that it's the mother's fault for putting him on the floor (sleeping on multiple chairs, whether there were any free or whether they had arms etc that would have made that impossible would have meant there was no issue)
That was me, it's not her fault, but she chose to let him lie on the floor, he was not placed there nor treated there. Those are the facts. Alongside the fact the NHS is under pressure and beds are scarce in some departments.
Ah, thanks. I recollected it but didn't find (or look, to be fair) for the post.
Yes, no one forced the child to lie on the floor, but I don't think it was a bad choice - chairs may be unsuitable, also falling risk if parent(s) also fatigued and might not be able to watch close enough/react quick enough. Likewise with holding.
Do you think it would have been any better if the pic had been with him lying across a couple of chairs? Just trying to understand your angle - do you think the mother chose the floor to maximise impact? It just seems like a reasonable least bad option to me. Taking and publicising the photo can be questioned, but again sending it first (I think?) to the Yorkshire Post makes me think of it as more trying to highlight a local issue than make a wider political point. Of course, we'll never know for sure and I'm aware there's a subsequent Mirror story.
I just think the whole thing is overblown and indicative of us being 48 hours from voting, and since the initial reaction (and then apology) of the PM it's been way overdone by all concerned, and indeed over defended. Busy hospital in winter, kid gets a rough trot, nobody was hurt, politicians seize on it like vultures
Fair enough, thanks for the reply.
It would have got very different (much less!) coverage at other times, for sure.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
Now that is the key issue. The boy on the floor could be explained away by someone able to think on their feet. Johnson could have suggested that the picture looks awful and he would get Matt Hancock to report back after a full investigation, and there would have been a damage limited story.
The subsequent cover ups are what doesn't look so good. However this is Johnson, and he will likely as not get away with it at the polls.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
I visited some relatives in Crawley over the weekend. The place was swarming with Labour activists and the Tories have been phone canvassing relentlessly, so presumably both hope/fear this could be a Labour gain. Note that Crawley is demographically very similar to those northern seats Boris is targeting - working class, Leave, industrial heritage. If Labour take it then we have to be looking at a hung parliament.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
The "assault"? No. Look at the video. Imagine you are the spad walking along and then you get cuffed and the nearest person to you is the shouty twat in flourescent yellow. You would be forgiven for thinking there was intent, whereas it is clear from the video that there was no intent it was just the shouty twat being a twat.
Was the SPAD called Wilfried Zaha? The slightest touch and metaphorically speaking he goes down.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
I have (had) 4 simple bands for Tory seats on election night, taken from the middle digit of each result:
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
He didn't have much choice in the matter. He's trying to make a joke out of it, but he said those things and it's obvious to anyone serious he meant them. Will it make a jot of difference at the election? Nope.
Then why the panic over anything Boris or a tory says or does?
The security thing on its own should be enough to disqualify him
It should yes. But voters cant easily disqualify him because the alternative is Johnson.
Theresa May and the intelligence services tried to block Johnson's security clearance as they do not trust him. His handling of Darroch and Zaghari-Ratcliffe also raise questions about his judgment.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I am not outraged by it at all, I just think it shows an honest reflection of both our PMs character and his ability to respond to something he hasnt already scripted a charming bumbling reply to. Its hardly him doing anything to be outraged by. More like disappointed and disillusioned that we have such a poor leader.
If he is wary about an ambush, he could be more open and honest with the public in the first place.
No politician is so open with the public such that no journalist would want to ambush them. From pictures of murals to pictures of boys on hospital floors.
Dave Merritt the father of Jack Merritt now laying into Johnson on Sky News .
That guy is.... hmmm.... I'll restrain myself. He's a grieving father.
BUT there is hope for the Tories in this late onslaught. It begins to look deranged. Labour, typically, are going over the top, painting Boris as an evil child-catcher and kitten-kebabber. At some point the public will roll their eyes, just as they have done with Labour's endless ludicrous spending promises
Come on Labour. Go totally postal. You know you want to.
I am sure no politician would dream of saying they hadnt seen a photo or heard a comment when they absolutely have. Especially not Johnson, oh no. It seems entirely appropriate to have short video or audio clips to hand when interviewing slippery and evasive politicians to take away that pathetic and frequent lie.
You could see Boris was nervous of what was being put in front of him. Pike said it was the photo of the boy and in an ideal world Boris would have said "ok let me look at it...ah yes dreadful" but as has been observed, not every journalist is as straight as Iain Dale says Pike is and Boris was jumpy about an ambush. He was however in the middle of answering the question about the boy.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
I'm considerably more disturbed by the post-interview attempts at news management by what appears to be outright lying.
Now that is the key issue. The boy on the floor could be explained away by someone able to think on their feet. Johnson could have suggested that the picture looks awful and he would get Matt Hancock to report back after a full investigation, and there would have been a damage limited story.
The subsequent cover ups are what doesn't look so good. However this is Johnson, and he will likely as not get away with it at the polls.
What was the cover up?
YOU BASTARDS!!! You are making me defend Boris and the Cons.
I don't think a Corbyn govt is feasible. Let's say he wins 245 seats against 324 for the Tories. That'd be a good result for him, but he'd be 80 seats behind the Tories (and probs 7-8% in the polls) desperately trying to form a govt when basically NOBODY likes him (apart from students who don't know shit from dirty clay and subscribers to the Morning Star).
Would the SNP really join him in a minority govt? I doubt it.
If the last 4 years has taught me anything about politics, its that the most dysfunctional thing that can happen, will happen.
As such, what would be the most comically painful election result?
I'm going for Tories on 310 seats, with no-one willing to support them. Labour then cobbling together alliance of misfits which completely fails to get anything AT ALL done and is constantly beset by in-fighting. The DUP tack constantly left and right to extract the maximum value from their position. Marvellous.
I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been some sort of personal Boris bombshell unleashed in the past few days: an op-ed in the Guardian by the mother of an undisclosed child.. "where Boris can stick his dancing pole" by Jennifer Arcuri in the Mirror or the Canary auctioning off bits of Carrie's smashed plates.
You can pretty much guarantee The Sun has "Jeremy Corbyn bought a used car off Colonel Gadaffi" or similar lined up for Thursday morning.
Don't want to freak everybody out but I am getting anecdotal reports of a late Labour recovery.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
If that is true, a Tory majority is toast.
it's Byronic, so it could just be the usual pre-election wobblies.
I happily confess I have got the wobblies. But I am not lying about these reports from well-informed acquaintances.
You wouldn't be S.... Byronic if you didn't have a wobble
I wouldn't be HUMAN if I didn't have the wobblies
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I'm going to stop even pretending that I'm calm now because I'm absolutely terrified that Boris has blown it with that unforced error. Doesn't matter how it came about, it's still at the top of news bulletins and the damage has been done and cannot be undone. The only thing that will calm me is to see a couple of opinion polls taken during and after Monday that still show a 7-10 point Tory lead.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
This afternoon I am going to shift the bulk of my capital into foreign stocks, bonds and shares
You are a tempest of emotion under the more cerebral thoughts, Byronic T.
Comments
Boris needed a gaffe free, incident free final few days and that story is still making headline news. I'm afraid a hung parliament is now a real possibility - and the total nightmare that will ensue.
Are there any objective proxies we can use? I always paid a lot of attention to council by-election results for trends but they do not apply during the campaign. Data from social media (views, likes etc.) is transient and not clear what it means. Anecdotal stuff is interesting but much will be biased or fake.
I'm in the "non-Tory stop Corbyn as highest priority" group. I know one vote is insignificant but I want to have some reassurance that I can vote LD as a marker for future moderation without too much risk!
Is it possible that the Tories pick up a swathe of big odds outsider heavy leave northern seats but Labour actually hang on in some of the much closer Midlands marginals?
But it still must come down to weighting, in the end - and if you are in a hard to reach group you’re going to be asked more often and upweighted more often, which is the nub of OGH’s old ‘advice’ linked upthread.
Yes, no one forced the child to lie on the floor, but I don't think it was a bad choice - chairs may be unsuitable, also falling risk if parent(s) also fatigued and might not be able to watch close enough/react quick enough. Likewise with holding.
Do you think it would have been any better if the pic had been with him lying across a couple of chairs? Just trying to understand your angle - do you think the mother chose the floor to maximise impact? It just seems like a reasonable least bad option to me. Taking and publicising the photo can be questioned, but again sending it first (I think?) to the Yorkshire Post makes me think of it as more trying to highlight a local issue than make a wider political point. Of course, we'll never know for sure and I'm aware there's a subsequent Mirror story.
Oh and yes, if you hage around enough A&E departments there will be people sleeping on floors photo ops aplenty over many years and multiple governments, but the media still love that kind of thing more than the reporting of stats (which have not been going well in A&E).
https://twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1204340943584989184
The day after Labour's leader is in Bristol, he posts an endorsement from Tony Blair.
eg Truro now in serious doubt: Labour pressing hard
Bloody hell.
Opinion polls are good predictors of "who will get the most votes" but less good at more complicated things like "overall majority". They occasionally fail. Betting odds are marginally better (gamblers will discard a rogue poll) but will also fail occasionally. Money spent may be a good predictor but numbers spent are difficult to derive in real time before an election, so are too logistically difficult to use. Modellers are also good but since in most cases their inputs scale to the polls or bets they also fail, and fail at the same time.
Alternate proxies suggested by PB personnel include net satisfaction ratings ( @MikeSmithson ), preferred PM ( @HYUFD ) and Con-LD lead ( @rcs1000 ?)
When you find out which is the better one, let me know.
Marquee_Mark?
The other £150 split between bets on on Lib Dem seat bands (very green on 10-19, slightly green on 20-19, break even on 0-9) and individual bets on Con seats over 340, Con share of vote 40-44.999% and overall Con majority.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy
A medical secretary has claimed her Facebook account was hacked after it was used to post false information claiming that a photograph of an ill boy on the floor at Leeds General Infirmary was staged for political purposes.
The woman denied posting the allegation that four-year-old Jack Willment-Barr’s mother placed him on the floor specifically to take the picture which became symbolic of the NHS’s troubles after it appeared on the front page of Monday’s Daily Mirror.
“I was hacked. I am not a nurse and I certainly don’t know anyone in Leeds,” said the woman, whose name the Guardian is withholding because she says she has received death threats. “I’ve had to delete everything as I have had death threats to myself and my children.”...
Overall my bets look good I think.
I am not as outraged as others and I loathe Johnson.
"Liberal democrat, election day is nearly upon us and we're preparing for the most ambitious, coordinated campaign this country has ever seen.
Already we're smashing records with our election activities, and on Thursday we're expecting tens of thousands of people to flock to key areas where our campaigning will make the biggest impact.
Our incredible people-powered movement will take on the Tories and their billionaire backers. Together, thousands of us knocking on doors in every corner of the country, we can win a Labour government for the many not the few.
Already got a plan? Great! If not, Loughborough needs your help. Here's where to go."
Loughborough was Nicky Morgan's with an 8% Tory lead last time
Question is, how many Remainery CON/LAB marginals are there? Does anyone know, off the bat?
Boris will surely make gains in the Red Wall, but a new Red Resistance further south could deny him,
The Tories are clearly slightly worried about the South West as Boris was scheduled to go back this week.
SNP under 47.5
LD under 38.5
Plaid under 4.5
Con - bristol east, southport, totnes, erith+thamesmead, mansfield, hazel grove
Lab - leicester east, cardiff west, portsmouth south
Green - bristol west
couple of stinkers there I regret but happy overall.
But he did turn up and take it on the chin
https://order-order.com/2019/12/10/ashworth-confronted-recording-politics-live/
But whether they are as well informed as (say) D.Herdson in 2017... ?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
We are potentially, and very plausibly, two days from a government headed by an anti-Semitic, terror-loving, Britain-hating Marxist. A snivelling, deluded old git who will happily see the country torn into pieces, and bankrupted, just so he can pursue some crazy socialist nightmare.
On top of that, he will usher in a second EU referendum which will make the first look friendly and calm, as outraged Leavers take to the streets, and boycott the vote, ensuring civil strife
Apocalypse beckons. Who amongst us is calm???
I just don't see it
The security thing on its own should be enough to disqualify him
If he is wary about an ambush, he could be more open and honest with the public in the first place.
It would have got very different (much less!) coverage at other times, for sure.
The subsequent cover ups are what doesn't look so good. However this is Johnson, and he will likely as not get away with it at the polls.
So question - will there be any other Westminster VI polls due today or tomorrow?
But I suspect it wasn't Tory HQ. Probably something more sinister.
Band 1: 315. Bad, back to square one, but probably enough to keep Labour out for a while by cutting a few deals with minor parties.
Band 2: 325: Adequate, effective majority of 6, enough to pass Brexit deal and few other things. Keeps Labour out for a few years.
Band 3: 335: Good: Sufficient majority to govern for a full term if properly used.
Band 4: 345: Excellent: Comfortable majority to get most things done.
Below Band 1, we're screwed, and above Band 4, we're off to the races, so I ignore those.
As a result of Phoneygate and Byronic wobbles, I have mentally deleted Band 4. If there's a bigger effect than that, then I'll frankly lose what little faith I had left in the voting public. I assume MRP will show a majority of around 30 later today.
Theresa May and the intelligence services tried to block Johnson's security clearance as they do not trust him. His handling of Darroch and Zaghari-Ratcliffe also raise questions about his judgment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48874147
So as with so much of this election, being terrible is no longer a DQ, because the other guy is also terrible.
BUT there is hope for the Tories in this late onslaught. It begins to look deranged. Labour, typically, are going over the top, painting Boris as an evil child-catcher and kitten-kebabber. At some point the public will roll their eyes, just as they have done with Labour's endless ludicrous spending promises
Come on Labour. Go totally postal. You know you want to.
YOU BASTARDS!!! You are making me defend Boris and the Cons.
I don't think a Corbyn govt is feasible. Let's say he wins 245 seats against 324 for the Tories. That'd be a good result for him, but he'd be 80 seats behind the Tories (and probs 7-8% in the polls) desperately trying to form a govt when basically NOBODY likes him (apart from students who don't know shit from dirty clay and subscribers to the Morning Star).
Would the SNP really join him in a minority govt? I doubt it.
“Instead of seeing a tragedy , Boris Johnson saw an opportunity “.
Coupled with photo gate it builds a picture of someone who really doesn’t care and has no empathy .
As such, what would be the most comically painful election result?
I'm going for Tories on 310 seats, with no-one willing to support them. Labour then cobbling together alliance of misfits which completely fails to get anything AT ALL done and is constantly beset by in-fighting. The DUP tack constantly left and right to extract the maximum value from their position. Marvellous.
You can pretty much guarantee The Sun has "Jeremy Corbyn bought a used car off Colonel Gadaffi" or similar lined up for Thursday morning.