politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number that should worry the Tories

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

isam said:

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do

I already have on here and here ...
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1202915568271134720

You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.

This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices

Blinkered, prejudiced and ill mannered. Knows nothing about betting. A complete embarrassment

No, Southam is an OK guy. A mensch, of sorts. I have hopes he can be restored to lucidity, when his grief is abated, following the Boris landslide.

Thank-you - enough.

If we're going to be fraternal on PB (it makes a nice change) then I happily confess I am in the same boat, though I maybe realised my problem a bit earlier than you. A few months back I noticed I was making errors of judgement, that were born of my contempt for Corbyn and my dislike of Remainer elitism.

Since then I have striven to address my bias. But we are all a work in progress.

Incidentally, there are already signs that Brexit might not be as bad as you fear. For the first time in years, London property prices are perking up.

https://www.ft.com/content/f85e6602-f005-11e9-a55a-30afa498db1b

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/london-house-prices-show-the-first-signs-of-recovery-2ffvb8blm

I reckon there is a lot of pent-up investment waiting to come to Britain (because we are still seen as stable, despite Brexit and Corbyn, because stability is RELATIVE - i.e. Brexit is a mess but it's better than Hong Kong's riots).

If and when Boris wins a decent majority, I expect the economy to pick up pace.

One thing I have definitely learned in my 50 plus years is that making a complete twat of yourself can be cathartic if you react in the right way. I have made a complete twat of myself this morning. I think it may actually end up doing me some good.

The possibility of Corbyn will undoubtedly benefit some aspects of UK inward investment and I can see some kind of release in the early part of next year. Longer term, though, I am not so sure. We will see.

AlastairMeeks said:

RobinWiggs said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobinWiggs said:

Beibheirli_C said:

For everyone shooting C4 News.

They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?

Yes. They were too quick to rush out their supposed "gotcha" that they didn't do the most basic of fact checking. It just took one to listen with eyes closed to hear what was really said. Not the most sophisticated of techniques.

For an idiot on twitter that would be par for the course; for a national broadcaster in the middle of a general election campaign it shows at the very least a massive error of judgement. More likely it demonstrates a lack of basic professionalism and due diligence in their editorial standards and processes.

They should be publicly flogged for that.

This could be catching. Perhaps we could bastinado Sajid Javid for straight-out lying about trends in homelessness. We could pull out Boris Johnson's scrotal hairs one by one for continuing to assert that there will no checks on goods going between Britain and Northern Ireland when his own government's documents confirm they will.

There is a difference.

Politicians make claims and statements in an election. It is the job of broadcasters to assess, analyse and report the validity of those claims. It is for electors to judge the veracity of the claims and propositions before casting their ballot.

When C4 make a biased cluster*uck like this it undermines the confidence in any of their content. That is the difference.

If you are being downright dishonest as a matter of practice, as the Conservatives currently are, then you have no moral standing to complain about the mistakes of others. Motes and beams.

It doesn't need to be a race to the bottom.

We expect our politicians to make claims and counter claims that are politically-motivated and use statistsics that are open to a variety of interpretations. It goes to the heart of "trust" that electors weigh when voting.

However, we rightly expect our broadcast media to be above the fray.

Channel 4 fell woefully and demonstrably short in this instance. This is not a party-political point I am making - I hope I would be as concerned had they smeared another party in similar circumstances and had to quickly retract.

We deserve better.

NorthofStoke said:

I think that a lot of those about to vote Labour have a deep seated moral discomfort over Corbyn that they are trying to repress. Projecting evil characteristics on Johnson resolves the dilemma allowing them to justify their horrible moral choice.

I would remove the word moral from that statement - it really isn't necessary and is equally true without it.

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do

I already have on here and here ...
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1202915568271134720

You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.

This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices

Blinkered, prejudiced and ill mannered. Knows nothing about betting. A complete embarrassment

Ha, ha. Bless you. I do know next to nothing about betting, it is true. But so what? It has not really held me back.

But this is a site about betting and politics, you know nothing about the former and are blinkered, prejudiced and ill informed on the latter. Why’d you bother?

I think that is out of order isam. I'd admit that Brexit and Boris has sent him batshit, but it's done that to most of us! I'd genuinely vote for the Labour Party of SO ,and if you have to be a bettor to post in here, this place would be awfully quiet.

This Talent-/Colour-gate thing works so well for Boris that I'm beginning to believe C4 may be undercover Tories after all...

wooliedyed said:

kle4 said:

camel said:

Andy_JS said:

llef said:

UK Election Poll: Conservatives 44% (Unch.); Labour 32% (+4) - Ipsos/MORIv

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1202899539579068416

All the polls are rather uncannily coming into line with the topline MRP figures of Con 43%, Lab 32%.

Tories seem firm on 43. Anti-tory vote seems a movable feast. So can Jeremy pull off his 2017 late swing trick again or not?

I think yes, but hes further back now. 41-36 I think.

By this stage of the 2017 campaign labour had exceeded 35% in 8 polls. They would exceed it in a further 6 over the coming weekend. The swing had already begun and actually seemed to peak over this coming weekend equivalent

If it peaked the weekend before the 2017 election, what happens this time were it to peak at the election booth (not saying it will but....)

Ah, Jezza.

https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

BannedinnParis said:

kinabalu said:

glw said:

A lot of lefties on here have made fools of themselves this morning. I hope they are feeling suitably ashamed.

No. Those making fools of themselves are limited to the following.

(i) CH4.

(ii) Those who defended the BJ comments before the correction was known.

Think about it.

I do think you need a third category

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1202917019055796225

There are a huge number of idiots on Twitter insisting that Boris said colour and that Channel4 have been knobbled in some way.

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

isam said:

Byronic said:

SouthamObserver said:

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do

I already have on here and here ...
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1202915568271134720

You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.

This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices

Blinkered, prejudiced and ill mannered. Knows nothing about betting. A complete embarrassment

No, Southam is an OK guy. A mensch, of sorts. I have hopes he can be restored to lucidity, when his grief is abated, following the Boris landslide.

Thank-you - I do appreciate it. The trick is to separate the personal from the political. It's the not having control thing, I think. Watching the country slide into what you strongly believe is a preventable disaster because there is no-one capable of preventing it is very tough. I wish I were handling it better. It's not healthy. But on a personal level Johnson is undoubtedly going to be very good for me and my family. I imagine I will get used to that soon enough.

I can feel your pain and others and really do understand it

So many have a deep affection for the EU and in divorce it is excrutiating and wrecks emotions

I only want brexit done because I believe it has to happen even though I voted remain

I do believe those who want to be in the EU need to form a campaign to rejoin and if leaving goes wrong, which it may or may not, rejoining may become a very popular option probably by the time of the next election

I do not really have a deep affection for the EU. I have a deep affection for the UK. It's clear, though, that my views about what are best for the UK are minority ones. My task is to learn to deal with that better.

People like me who advocate a strong UK within a far from perfect EU are traitors. I know this now. True patriots like Mr Johnson, Mr Farage and Mr Rees-Mogg are beyond reproach. They will nonetheless be the architects of a United Ireland and an independent Scotland.

BluerBlue said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BluerBlue said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

5.1 million now. Must be the world's biggest Twitter bubble.

No one cares after the C4 smear. Neilgate lasted about 14 hours.

Ha ha in your dreams.

How many points will it shift in Labour's favour?

I don't know. I just think it's good that cheats don't prosper, liars are confronted and cowards are exposed. It's good to see that the British public still believe in fair play.

C4 must be run by secret Tories, this nothing story has completely taken the agenda away from the Andrew Neil story, which is probably much more important.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Ah, Jezza.

https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

For The Many not The Few. Tee Hee.

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

The fact that so many Corbynistas are still insisting Johnson said colour could potentially prove a real problem for them if they carry on like this.

It is quite scary how much the cult are like Team Trump supporters. It doesn't matter what the facts are, they have their own alternative facts.

And as I pointed out last night, this isn't just random 18 year olds, people like Michael Rosen, a supposed highly intelligent man (and yes I know he has already been very left wing so not surprising he is a fan of Corbyn)...his twitter feed is littered with the fake news shit.

I really like Michael Rosen's Radio 4 programmes on language. Shows how important it is not to let politics affect everything.

Mrs U has met him a few years ago and spoke with him at length and said he was very charming. As I say, we all know he is very left wing, but I am just disappointed to find that he has resorted to the retweeting all this fake news shit from the usual suspects.

SandyRentool said:

Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

I frequently struggle to understand what Johnson says, he has such an inpenitrably posh accent.

What was Labours big announcement this morning to get their campaign back on the front foot? I must have missed it.

You Gov are running a poll on whether Johnson should the AN interview .

It’s early days but so far overwhelmingly people say yes . I doubt the issue will change many votes , but the questions AN wanted to put are more problematic if people saw the AN clip.

melcf said:

Define Irony:, Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson, Priti Patel, Sajid Javed and Chinless/ No named Father Gove are now the gatekeepers to this ancient and powerful land. To keep people of colour out.

MODERATORS

I would encourage you to ban this racist poster

SandyRentool said:

Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

are you listening to the original footage or some edited version from a Momentum tweet? Struggle to see how people would think it is 'colour' instead of 'talent' with the original footage and not reading the subtitles.

beentheredonethat said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Just had the Tories knock my Stockton South door for the first time ever. Bless them. Both students from Surrey. Had no idea where they were. Does show how much £££ the Tory machine has though

Not had a single door knocker or leaflet. Given I only moved here a year or so ago I would have thought they might want to know how/if my home of 4 adults would vote.

Lib Dem propaganda effort at Chez Urquhart appears to have now died out.

Byronic said:

Here's an example of a senior politician humiliating themselves on the issue

https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1202912996252618754?s=20

Chuka hasn't even got the balls to apologise or delete. Shameful stuff, really. We are governed by moral dwarves.

That does now seem to be the line to take on twitter. I was only wrong, because Boris is a massive racist and so I don't need to apologise.

New thread

Byronic said:

If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

twitter.com/JoeAudritt/status/1202930891338764288?s=20

It's TALENT

My understanding is he has been using this phrase repeatedly on the campaign trail. It isn't something new he just said.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Byronic said:

If there is any dispute, here is definitive proof, a different video of the same speech

twitter.com/JoeAudritt/status/1202930891338764288?s=20

It's TALENT

My understanding is he has been using this phrase repeatedly on the campaign trail. It isn't something new he just said.

It’s just a shame there aren’t more people of talent on offer to voters next Thursday

SandyRentool said:

Just listened to it. Sounds like colour to me. Certainly sounds nothing like talent.

Likewise. It sounds like colour to me. I'm not sure it's worth making such a big deal out of it though.

FrancisUrquhart said:

beentheredonethat said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Just had the Tories knock my Stockton South door for the first time ever. Bless them. Both students from Surrey. Had no idea where they were. Does show how much £££ the Tory machine has though

Not had a single door knocker or leaflet. Given I only moved here a year or so ago I would have thought they might want to know how/if my home of 4 adults would vote.

Lib Dem propaganda effort at Chez Urquhart appears to have now died out.

Only the Tories are making an effort in my patch of Bassetlaw seemingly.

BluerBlue said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BluerBlue said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

5.1 million now. Must be the world's biggest Twitter bubble.

No one cares after the C4 smear. Neilgate lasted about 14 hours.

Ha ha in your dreams.

How many points will it shift in Labour's favour?

You are missing the point. It's not about how many points it will shift it's about the character and ability of the man we are about to give largely unfettered power to for the next 5 years.

Channel Four 1982-2020.

Will have been a good run.

Andy_JS said:

My sense is a Tory landslide is fading into the distance at the moment. Most likely result is a majority of between 20 and 60 but they could still fall short of 326 if the last week goes badly.

I'm thinking exactly the opposite. All the anecdotes point to a larger Tory victory. The last person to enthuse the WWC and the lower middle class was Blair. It could be 1983, 1997 or even 1931, although I think the different demoses in Scotland and NI preclude the latter.

A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.

1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.

2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.

3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.

Beibheirli_C said:

Burgessian said:

RochdalePioneers said:

MikeSmithson said:

A lot of wishful thinking on this thread.

Now 4.2m views. That must take it out of just the Westminster village and Guardian readers as we were assured earlier.

Isn't most of this priced in Mike? Not doing Neil is hardly his most egregious whopper - there's a stack of Johnson lies and as James O'Brien has got to do many of the people Johnson lies to know they are being lied to and are happy about being lied to because Brexit.

I honestly can't see it making a negative difference to him - it could, should it become the singular issue of the remaining days. But it won't be.

The Andrew Neil no-show is definitely damaging to Boris. No question. But being completely eviscerated would have been even worse. So, probably, right decision, but still a significant hit. Fortunately for Boris the timing isn't too bad, because postal voters will mostly have voted beforfehand and his debate with Corbyn will cause the AN controversy to fade away by polling day.

What should be more worrying is that we are electing a PM with no backbone. What will he do if he cannot run away? Perhaps, say, in high level talks or discussions? Will he lie to them and then stab them in the back the next day á la DUP? What will that do for UK plc? He was a trainwreck as For.Sec., as PM he could be an National Emergency.

When Boris gets physically confronted he grins weakly and runs away. It's a pattern in him that runs thru his jobs and relationships and I've remarked on it before. He could be an Anthony Eden sized mistake. Let's hope he's not an Asquith sized mistake...

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Ah, Jezza.

https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849

Not even in neutral territory with the student and youth vote.

Chris said:

wooliedyed said:

Chris said:

wooliedyed said:

melcf said:

Define Irony:, Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson, Priti Patel, Sajid Javed and Chinless/ No named Father Gove are now the gatekeepers to this ancient and powerful land. To keep people of colour out.

You posted this thinly veiled racism yesterday. Give it a rest.

Jesus Christ!

It's racism now, is it, to criticise racism on the part of the descendants of immigrants?

How absurd can what passes for political discourse become?

If you dont think its racist that doesn't particularly surprise me

I _do_ think it's racism on the part of the descendants of immigrants. That's the point of my comment. How could I have made it any clearer?

So you think Boris's name is "Boris Ali Kemal Bey Johnson"

BluerBlue said:

MaxPB said:

C4 must be run by secret Tories, this nothing story has completely taken the agenda away from the Andrew Neil story, which is probably much more important.

Boris now the innocent victim of media smears as C4 is forced to make a grovelling apology!

"So why won't you go on Andrew Neill?"

"Did you see the way Channel 4 News smeared me this morning and doctored the subtitles? I think we need to have a serious discussion about media standards in this country..."

Particularly reviewing print media journalists who get sacked for lying in newspaper articles they have written.

GideonWise said:

A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.

1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.

2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.

3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.

Absolutely correct. It was obvious from the outset that the original audio was corrupted and unclear. No definite conclusion could have been made about the utterance at that point - let alone assert that it was a vile racist dog whistle. C4 should have checked every available recording and asked Boris and other witnesses for their take. Only then, upon being absolutely certain, should they have made the claim they did. What a bunch of cowboys! We are poorly served.

TrèsDifficile said:

https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202916332146249733?s=20

That's a stretch. Lower skilled people still have the necessary talent for specific things

Andy_JS said:

The craziest tweet I've read in a long time:

https://twitter.com/rob__waters/status/1202916889753731072

Ready for denial is a great phrase, since it means any denial should be ignored. Marvellous.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1202952982616248323

It's getting ugly out there.

Mango said:

northern_monkey said:

HYUFD said:

'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'

My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

At least that won't leave them to fall prey to some fascist asswipe waving a Union Jack (or England flag)...

What? Oh.

Why are these flags "fascist"?

numbertwelve said:

SandyRentool said:

BluerBlue said:

If I were Boris, I would use the phrase "people of talent" ten times in the debate tonight, just for the bantz...

"People of talent want to Get Brexit Done"

“And unleash Britain’s potential”

"Unlike the Doomsters and Gloomsters!"

Reading the comments on ITV regarding John Major not supporting the Tories could be of some help in the marginals. Certainly the Tories are looking to distance themselves from the 80s and 90s incarnation in order to win round Labour voters. Major’s intervention somewhat detoxifies Boris and makes him a break from the past.