'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
If that is the case it will mean the Tories having to accept higher public spending and, therefore, higher taxes and more borrowing - while also cutting immigration and putting up trade barriers, thus making it far harder to grow the economy. Something will have to give. What will it be?
They will only go on to face the same, probably insoluble internal contradictions as UKIP and the Brexit Party, whom they are aping. This new base will want higher public spending, nationalisation and a left-leaning nostalgia mixed with nativism. The actual driving forces of UKIP, the Brexit Party and the Tory Right are footloose, highly ideological ultra-capitalists.
Given that the last Mori poll was more than 3 weeks ago, we don't know if that movement is recent or simply it's the one already recorded by other companies weeks ago. Nevertheless CON 44, LAB 32, LD 13, BRX 2 would give a Conservative majority of 44-64. If tonight's debate doesn't change anything then this election is over.
You are relying heavily on the polls - what if they are all wrong?
This time the polls, the canvassing, the campaigning, and the local anecdotes are all aligning.
Also there is this uncanny thing about elections that they tend to result in what should have been the result of the previous election.
For example if the Conservatives get a majority of 50 in 2019, that was the expected result in 2017, instead it was a Hung Parliament which was the expectation in 2015 and so forth.
Public opinion tends to vote with a time delay of a few years, or regretting their previous vote by correcting it in the future.
Is PB going to do some sort of a sweepstake where we can all put our uneducated and totally biased guesses into a database and then cringe in embarrassment that we really were that wrong ?
Boris Johnson says “people of talent” not “people of colour.”
Our earlier tweet was a mistake. We misheard and we apologise.
ooops we got caught........
But still "feck the tories" eh C4
There must be a heated debate going on in the BBC newsroom. On the one hand, they want to keep the Andrew Neil story getting mximum coverage. On the other they will REALLY want to twist the knife into Channel 4!!
Boris has referred previously to people of talent, however strange a phrase it is to my ears. Maybe the similar form to people of colour is deliberate.
F##k the Tories? I mean it isn't like he is hosting the GE programme or anything. I love his excuse that he didn't know it was Labour propaganda because he didn't watch it until the end.
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...
Yes, of course. He is lying. But that is what he does.
Can you not have carers of talent? You know, those who have a real ablity to deal with the old and infirm? Do we have to let in anybody who can change a bedpan?
You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.
This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices
Johnson is a proven liar who runs away from detailed scrutiny. Those are not prejudices, those are facts. I think the worst of Brexit because I think it will be hugely damaging for this country on every level possible. But I am long past thinking it is any way preventable.
I think we all make embarrassing judgements and come to the wrong conclusions - especially with regards to people we hold in low regard. When we do, it is important to acknowledge it. And so I have.
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...
Yes, of course. He is lying. But that is what he does.
Change the record
It's difficult to do so, when "Get Brexit Done" is one of the most blatant lies in the history of British electoral campaigning. If you have form, people aren't likely to have a high degree of trust.
'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'
My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.
Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.
If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.
So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.
The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
Yes, that could happen. I'll believe it when I see it.
It's very difficult to see how it could happen. The big money behind Boris is hedge funds, not unions.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
For them not to have done it in the first place. The damage is done, and an apology doesn’t undo that. Just take a look at the replies to their apology.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
If I was the Tories, I would blow this CH4 thing up as big as possible. Arrange a Press Conference ASAP, etc. It plays the narrative of Tories tough on immigration and media bias (even if both are bollocks).
Yes, they should sue. Channel 4 are clearly as biased and demented as the Boris-haters on here.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
They are making the same mistakes they do with Trump (and to a lesser extend with Corbyn). If you try and turn everything into a massive scandal, nothing becomes a scandal.
Remember the Gordo handwriting-gate. Because they went OTT on his dodgy hand writing / misspelling, he got sympathy when the real story was he did make a mistake (everybody does), but he lied / was quite confrontational to the mother in the phone call.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
For them not to have done it in the first place. The damage is done, and an apology doesn’t undo that. Just take a look at the replies to their apology.
There used to be something called Editorial control.
Twatter has destroyed that in an attempt to get quick headlines and increase journalists' own vanity.
You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.
This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices
Johnson is a proven liar who runs away from detailed scrutiny. Those are not prejudices, those are facts. I think the worst of Brexit because I think it will be hugely damaging for this country on every level possible. But I am long past thinking it is any way preventable.
I think we all make embarrassing judgements and come to the wrong conclusions - especially with regards to people we hold in low regard. When we do, it is important to acknowledge it. And so I have.
Fair enough. But you seem to be making no effort to address this prejudice, which is now leading you to make embarrassing gaffes and misjudgements. You're treating politics and Brexit as issues of faith, not logic.
It diminishes the value of your opinion, which is a shame as you are normally interesting and perceptive.
Just trying to understand the voting percentages( from polls) and seats, with 2017 for comparison. Tories at 44-42% seem at the same level as 2017 but may get 20-40 addtional seats! Labour seem to be between 32-35% and will lose around 40 seats LB at 11-15% seem to be picking up 15-25 seats. Greens and Brexit(UKIP) seem static One thing is clear, Labour has lost votes and LD have gained them. Various scenarios 1) Tories have lost votes in London/ SE but regained them in the North( Leave labour)? If Tories were to hold South/ Remania and gain North, then their percentage should have reached 45-50! So definitely Tories have gained some, lost some. 2) Labour has lost 5% , but where and to whom? Directly to Cons in the North or to Brexit or to LD in the South? 3) Individual Constituency polls seem to come from Labour areas, such as Grimsby and Wrexham. Wonder why these two were selected?? With landline polling of a very small sample. Off course they say the same, Brexit, hate for Corbyn at the doorstep and labour wall is crumbling. I heard the same in 2017 and the wall remained intact and even grew stronger. 4) Polls in 2017 downplayed Labour votes by 5%. Sections such as ethnics, students and non land line users were ignored. Have they repeated the same error? At this time, in 2017 the talk was of a 400 seat landslide and Betfred 96% majority for Tories. I shall wait till the 13th, before I count me chickens
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
Why ?
I thought that was the idea. Think I saw it on a bus!
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
You're three decades out of date. They already destroyed the original ethos of Channel 4 from 1990 onwards, by making it dependent on its own advertising, and the Birtist reforms threw out much of both the BBC's radical edge and intellectual ambition long ago.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
They are making the same mistakes they do with Trump (and to a lesser extend with Corbyn). If you try and turn everything into a massive scandal, nothing becomes a scandal.
Indeed.
BTW I was joking above, if any lefty wants to go into meltdown. I don't want to sack every single leftwing person.
They SHOULD sell off Channel 4, however. Enough already,
What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.
But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...
Yes, of course. He is lying. But that is what he does.
Change the record
It's difficult to do so, when "Get Brexit Done" is one of the most blatant lies in the history of British electoral campaigning. If you have form, people aren't likely to have a high degree of trust.
Labour have had some whoppers. Government bonds aren't borrowing. The average family has a two year old child for ten consecutive years. The average family has two rail season ticket holders. The price difference between a season ticket now and ten years ago has been the same for the last ten years.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
WTF? You mad or just plain stupid?
Brexit is going to be biggest clusterfuck in British history. It will unravel and it will unravel quickly....
Channel 4 used to be required viewing in the 80s and early/mid 90s when it used to show cutting edge programmes with material that often couldn't be viewed anywhere else.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
WTF? You mad or just plain stupid?
Brexit is going to be biggest clusterfuck in British history. It will unravel and it will unravel quickly....
Channel 4 used to be required viewing in the 80s and early/mid 90s when it used to show cutting edge programmes with material that often couldn't be viewed anywhere else.
Now it is just First Dates, Location / Location / Location and 24hr in A&E....
Channel 4 used to be required viewing in the 80s and early/mid 90s when it used to show cutting edge programmes with material that often couldn't be viewed anywhere else.
This was before the changes of the Broadcasting Act 1990 had had time to feed through.
You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.
This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices
Johnson is a proven liar who runs away from detailed scrutiny. Those are not prejudices, those are facts. I think the worst of Brexit because I think it will be hugely damaging for this country on every level possible. But I am long past thinking it is any way preventable.
I think we all make embarrassing judgements and come to the wrong conclusions - especially with regards to people we hold in low regard. When we do, it is important to acknowledge it. And so I have.
Fair enough. But you seem to be making no effort to address this prejudice, which is now leading you to make embarrassing gaffes and misjudgements. You're treating politics and Brexit as issues of faith, not logic.
It diminishes the value of your opinion, which is a shame as you are normally interesting and perceptive.
You always have to try to learn from your mistakes. And I do try. Sometimes I fail. But I'll keep on trying. Nothing that has happened with regards to Brexit has changed my opinion of it. I think it will be hugely damaging. I would very much like to be wrong. Why wouldn't that be the case? As for articles of faith, I have just read that you want to burn it all!!
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
An end to public funding of them
a proper apology personally and in writing to Boris alongside an explanation of the editorial process changes that will be made to ensure similar libels aren't repeated in future.
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
That, right there, is the true rationale behind Brexit. It's not about an extra £350m a week for the NHS (ha, as if!), it's an attempt to make this country a right-wing shithole, beyond scrutiny and control. And the masses have fallen for the snake oil, which may bring in a whole raft of outcomes that would never win at the ballot box, or in a referendum, if they were as explicitly stated as Byronic has done so pithily.
"Nicola Sturgeon, responded. In a tweet, now deleted, she said: “And the Tories claim that their obsession with immigration is nothing to do with race. This is a shocking – and very revealing – comment.”
Worth pointing out that the BBC have made some deeply curious edits to TV news clips, which seem to favour Boris - so the bias is not entirely one way.
"Nicola Sturgeon, responded. In a tweet, now deleted, she said: “And the Tories claim that their obsession with immigration is nothing to do with race. This is a shocking – and very revealing – comment.”
If the Tories win big, they really do need to take on the Blob, and fuck it up.
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
That, right there, is the true rationale behind Brexit. It's not about an extra £350m a week for the NHS (ha, as if!), it's an attempt to make this country a right-wing shithole, beyond scrutiny and control. And the masses have fallen for the snake oil, which may bring in a whole raft of outcomes that would never win at the ballot box, or in a referendum, if they were as explicitly stated as Byronic has done so pithily.
Agreed. ByronicT is simply trolling, but he's summoned a genuinely living demon from his creative unconscious.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
It would be a modest start.
And put the apology front of their news bulletin. Get Jon Snow to apologise personally.
Yeah, the news companies can start apologising after Boris Johnson apologises for his failed attempt to suspend democracy. I haven't noticed too many Conservatives getting worked up about the most serious assault on British democracy in all our lifetimes.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
Yes. They were too quick to rush out their supposed "gotcha" that they didn't do the most basic of fact checking. It just took one to listen with eyes closed to hear what was really said. Not the most sophisticated of techniques.
For an idiot on twitter that would be par for the course; for a national broadcaster in the middle of a general election campaign it shows at the very least a massive error of judgement. More likely it demonstrates a lack of basic professionalism and due diligence in their editorial standards and processes.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
It would be a modest start.
And put the apology front of their news bulletin. Get Jon Snow to apologise personally.
Yeah, the news companies can start apologising after Boris Johnson apologises for his failed attempt to suspend democracy. I haven't noticed too many Conservatives getting worked up about the most serious assault on British democracy in all our lifetimes.
Oh good grief. You too have lost any perspective.
When Brexit is DONE I do hope that people like you and Southam can return to the insightful and articulate people you were, before you went fucking postal
According to the tw@tterati, he definitely did say people of colour, no matter what CH4 now says or he said people of talent as a dog whistle for people of colour....
Can we just shut down the whole of twitter...it is clearly just a massive cesspool of Fake News.
Embarrassing for CH4 News. It was "people of talent" not "people of colour".
Also embarrassing (!) for those who attempted to defend it before the mistake came to light - i.e. when they thought he HAD said "It's fine for people of colour to come here so long as it's controlled."
Worth pointing out that the BBC have made some deeply curious edits to TV news clips, which seem to favour Boris - so the bias is not entirely one way.
The only part of Sunday's Marr-crash that made ITN was Boris saying the 72 released terrorists would be put under further scrutiny. Ta!
Comments
But still "feck the tories" eh C4
ITV News are making a story today of Swinson under fire over her fake election newpapers, a controversy that refuses to go away for the Lib Dems.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-12-06/jo-swinson-refuses-to-apologise-over-liberal-democrat-fake-newspapers/
I can't see anything on their website about Andrew Neil.
I think we all make embarrassing judgements and come to the wrong conclusions - especially with regards to people we hold in low regard. When we do, it is important to acknowledge it. And so I have.
They made a mistake. They have now made a public apology. What more do you want? Public floggings?
https://twitter.com/rob__waters/status/1202916889753731072
Sell Channel 4. Let Rupert buy it. Privatise the BBC, especially the news. Sack every quangocrat with a leftwing opinion. Gut the universities, rip out the commie parasites in academe. Suppress the Supreme Court. Do it all.
Brexit needs to be a total revolution, not just a change in trade and tariffs.
They are so obviously biased as to be laughable.
Remember the Gordo handwriting-gate. Because they went OTT on his dodgy hand writing / misspelling, he got sympathy when the real story was he did make a mistake (everybody does), but he lied / was quite confrontational to the mother in the phone call.
Twatter has destroyed that in an attempt to get quick headlines and increase journalists' own vanity.
Journalists no longer do their job properly.
If Channel 4 are privatised in the next few years they will only have themselves to blame!
It diminishes the value of your opinion, which is a shame as you are normally interesting and perceptive.
Tories at 44-42% seem at the same level as 2017 but may get 20-40 addtional seats!
Labour seem to be between 32-35% and will lose around 40 seats
LB at 11-15% seem to be picking up 15-25 seats.
Greens and Brexit(UKIP) seem static
One thing is clear, Labour has lost votes and LD have gained them.
Various scenarios
1) Tories have lost votes in London/ SE but regained them in the North( Leave labour)?
If Tories were to hold South/ Remania and gain North, then their percentage should have reached 45-50! So definitely Tories have gained some, lost some.
2) Labour has lost 5% , but where and to whom? Directly to Cons in the North or to Brexit or to LD in the South?
3) Individual Constituency polls seem to come from Labour areas, such as Grimsby and Wrexham. Wonder why these two were selected?? With landline polling of a very small sample. Off course they say the same, Brexit, hate for Corbyn at the doorstep and labour wall is crumbling. I heard the same in 2017 and the wall remained intact and even grew stronger.
4) Polls in 2017 downplayed Labour votes by 5%. Sections such as ethnics, students and non land line users were ignored. Have they repeated the same error?
At this time, in 2017 the talk was of a 400 seat landslide and Betfred 96% majority for Tories. I shall wait till the 13th, before I count me chickens
BTW I was joking above, if any lefty wants to go into meltdown. I don't want to sack every single leftwing person.
They SHOULD sell off Channel 4, however. Enough already,
Brexit is going to be biggest clusterfuck in British history. It will unravel and it will unravel quickly....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/06/general-election-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn-final-tv-debate-live-news
For an idiot on twitter that would be par for the course; for a national broadcaster in the middle of a general election campaign it shows at the very least a massive error of judgement. More likely it demonstrates a lack of basic professionalism and due diligence in their editorial standards and processes.
They should be publicly flogged for that.
When Brexit is DONE I do hope that people like you and Southam can return to the insightful and articulate people you were, before you went fucking postal
Can we just shut down the whole of twitter...it is clearly just a massive cesspool of Fake News.
Also embarrassing (!) for those who attempted to defend it before the mistake came to light - i.e. when they thought he HAD said "It's fine for people of colour to come here so long as it's controlled."
You know who you are.