Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number that should worry the Tories

1235711

Comments

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    Sadly, yes.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,755
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:
    Yepp.

    Pro-independence 71 (+3)
    Pro-London rule 57 (-3)

    David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
    No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.

    Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens
    Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.
    The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNP
    Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.
    HYUFD got this wrong. Scottish Greens are basically a subset of the Yes movement. Their original leader, Robin Harper, wasn't but the current lot are fully signed up pro-Indy.
    You might be a Scottish Green who voted for them over climate change concerns, not nationalism, the clue is in the title.

    If you are voting Scottish National Party you are mainly voting for them for one reason
    Quite possibly. But the point is the Green parliamentary contingent will vote for IndyRef2 whatever. No ifs or buts.
  • IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.


    So he should vote LibDem?
    Once heard a Liverpool fan say if he found Mohamed Salah in bed with his wife he'd make him a cup of tea.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    nunu2 said:
    Their model looks generally OK but it has some issues, no way is Mike Gapes getting 24% in Ilford South
  • nunu2 said:
    Were you up for Ed?
    Yougov MRP has Lab 43%, Con 29%, Brexit 19% so feels it would need a collapse in the Brexit party vote in favour of Con to make it close.

    It would be helpful if Decision Desk told us what they were basing their forecasts on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    About 1 second. Most videos lose most viewers in the first few seconds. For practical purposes you can cut that 3.3m in half and say that 1.7m probably watched to the end.

    True. But it works the other way too. There will be situations - particularly in the workplace and in social gatherings - whereby a person will play the Neil video on their phone or tablet and several others will crowd around to watch it and cheer. Where this happens the plus '1' on the count is in reality a large multiple of that.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.

    There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
    Your data actually supports my contention.

    (Incidentally, I’m not a Conservative.)
    Since data was my profession I am fascinated to hear your explanation as to how the data supports your contention. The Conservatives have hidden so well that they have failed to show their true faces in decades, even when the Labour Party held the seat (its predecessor) in the 70s? If one of my staff had made such a ludicrous assertion I would have transferred them to the marketing department.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.


    So he should vote LibDem?
    Once heard a Liverpool fan say if he found Mohamed Salah in bed with his wife he'd make him a cup of tea.
    Why do you think a Liverpool jury found Steven Gerrard not guilty. And Ken Dodd before him.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    MattW said:

    Just watching the BBC saying they will exercise their audience selection skills for the debate this evening.

    Abusive bearpit, then.

    20% Leave.

    10% Tory.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    People are still reading this election through the lenses of the last one.
  • IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)

    And if Corbyn asks how can you trust Boris to handle Putin and Trump when he won't even do TV interviews?
    If Corbyn deliberately brings up dealing with Putin as an electoral issue... seriously? Johnson would be freaking delighted. Salisbury, Syria, refusal to fire nukes...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,755

    alb1on said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.

    There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
    Your data actually supports my contention.

    (Incidentally, I’m not a Conservative.)
    In terms of its basis demographics there is no reason why SCOn should not be competitive in CSER. It ticks many of their boxes. It;s just that they have seemed out of contention and their natural voters have gone with the LibDems. Brexit has, as we have seen, a tendency to break voting patterns however.
  • alb1on said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.

    There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
    Clearly you are on another planet. 2017 in Inverness SCons went from 4th to 2nd and In Ross, Skye and Lochaber from 3rd to 2nd. In Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross the Tory vote rose by 16% between 2015 and 2017. In East Dunbartonshire in 2017 the SNP went down 10%, 6% going to the SCons and 4% to the SLibs. Get your facts correct before talking shite!
  • Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.
    No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.
    Unwise to propose a policy you believe in, Stuart? Surprised to hear that from you.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.

    I’m furious.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Now that is a mistake by Tory campaign. They should have just kept stalling for time until it was too late. This kind of response is quite clearly nonsense, no one will believe they are rejecting the interview for some grand principle. When the Tories wanted the election they seemed to believe that calling Corbyn 'frit' was a great attack line, and now apparently Boris being 'frit' will go unnoticed. The hoops some people here are jumping through to convince themselves that this is a morally correct decision (regardless of whether it is an electorally correct one) is crazy.

    Will it swing the election, no of course not, but it is just one more negative in Boris' column.

    Above all I don't get why he refused in the first place. Sure it was bad for Corbyn but sturgeon Swinson and Farage have all come out from it fine. Even a bumbling interview was unlikely to be as bad as Corbyn Antisemitism apology error.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    I ws checking for Ed Miliband's in 2015. Strangely, the only interviews I can find with Andrew Neil that election were with Nigel Farage, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood.....

    So basically, he only got the shit-list minor leaders.

    More fool Corbyn.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
    That would be true, were it not for their flagship policy of overturning a referendum result because the people voted the ‘wrong’ way.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Interesting three-way battle in Ynys Mon.

    Any views?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    The atmosphere here amongst Tories reminds me of a Test match where Tories are 420 all out and 300 in the third innings, Labour have posted 320 and are chasing 400 to win...
  • The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...

    Well, I voted LD rather than a bunch of raving Marxists on one side or a bunch of crazy nationalists on the other.

    No doubt the gerontocracy that selected Boris will expect him to keep trashing the UK to funnel money into their nursing homes and coffins so they can take it with them. Those of us left behind can pick up the bill....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)

    Er, this.

    It's the same argument as those who were arguing a few months ago that Labour would suffer from being perceived to have blocked an election due to being scared of facing the electorate. Failing to realise that it didn't matter until an election was called. Which could only happen with their support. At which point they would no longer appear scared.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Diversity just means people from different heritage with the same views. Matthew Syed is trying to right that wrong

    https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1202675864296669184?s=21
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:
    Yepp.

    Pro-independence 71 (+3)
    Pro-London rule 57 (-3)

    David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
    No, SNP forecast to be down a seat at Holyrood, the pro Brexit Tories unchanged, Scottish Labour down 8 seats.

    Only the pro Union anti Brexit LDs up and the Greens
    Yet again you count the Greens as a Unionist party. As has been pointed out to you on countless occasions, the Scottish Greens are pro-independence.
    The Scottish Greens are anti climate change primarily, being pro independence is not their raison d'etre unlike the SNP
    Now there's a classic HY post: He gets something wrong, and rather than put his hands up to yet another mistake he tries to deflect the point.
    HYUFD got this wrong. Scottish Greens are basically a subset of the Yes movement. Their original leader, Robin Harper, wasn't but the current lot are fully signed up pro-Indy.
    You might be a Scottish Green who voted for them over climate change concerns, not nationalism, the clue is in the title.

    If you are voting Scottish National Party you are mainly voting for them for one reason
    What are the raisons d'être of SLab and the SLDs? If it's not Unionism, that's an awfy weedy Unionist minority you've got there.
    Indeed. Scottish Labour are pro-social justice primarily, being Unionist is not their raison d'etre unlike the Conservatives. Yet HY is quite happy adding Lab to the Unionist numbers but subtracts the Greens from the pro-independence numbers.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
  • HYUFD said:

    'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'

    My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

    Wise post. And when they are disappointed with Brexit they will turn to Corbynism and we will end up voting for two unnecessary ideological economic disasters in a decade.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    I ws checking for Ed Miliband's in 2015. Strangely, the only interviews I can find with Andrew Neil that election were with Nigel Farage, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood.....

    So basically, he only got the shit-list minor leaders.

    More fool Corbyn.
    Neil wanted an interview with Cameron for six years and was never granted one
  • Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
    That would be true, were it not for their flagship policy of overturning a referendum result because the people voted the ‘wrong’ way.
    Ah, the 'too much democracy' argument!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    isam said:

    Diversity just means people from different heritage with the same views. Matthew Syed is trying to right that wrong

    ttps://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1202675864296669184?s=21

    Dan Hannan has a good line that “BBC Diversity” is a group of people who all look different but think the same.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    Worse. Boris could prep and ride out the interview and no-one would care.

    Sure, opposition activists would share a few clips of Boris squirming but it wouldn’t shift anything.

    On the other hand being frit is something everyone understands and no-one respects.
  • Streeter said:

    Opens the door for all politicians to refuse interviews that don't suit them.

    A very bad day for democracy, but that's what we've come to expect from our Eton-grown Trump.

    It will not cost him a single vote. When you are up against Jeremy Corbyn, you can win an election by lying and running away. But you can also win it by telling the truth and facing detailed scrutiny. Johnson's decsion to employ the forner strategy will cost him dear in the longer term, but he may not have been capable of doing anything else.
  • Probably the worst thing (don't bother whatabouttheantisemitism-ing at me) about the Momentum Jezza Christ brigade is their humourless piety.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1202873551872778240?s=20
  • Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.
    No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.
    Unwise to propose a policy you believe in, Stuart? Surprised to hear that from you.
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I cannot recollect the SNP brandishing the slogan “Bollocks to Britain”.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    That's the nub of the matter.

    It isn't that he won't do the interview. Because his technique is poor, or whatever.

    It's the reasons he won't do the interview. All the telling questions that he doesn't want people to see he can't answer.
  • So Starmer will negotiate a customs union with the EU within a month and then will campaign against it

    You could not make this up
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.
    No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.
    Unwise to propose a policy you believe in, Stuart? Surprised to hear that from you.
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I cannot recollect the SNP brandishing the slogan “Bollocks to Britain”.
    No but that`s what they think
  • By 'change' they mean deference and allowing the politician to spout raw propaganda unchallenged. This is a chilling taster of what the Boris regime will look like.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    See what you did there. But one will also search in vain for Red Ed's one. And this is the point. But anyway, sorted now. The Neil mini monologue was enough IMO to mitigate the BBC's error.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
    That would be true, were it not for their flagship policy of overturning a referendum result because the people voted the ‘wrong’ way.
    Ah, the 'too much democracy' argument!
    They’re not arguing for ‘more democracy’, they’re arguing to overturn the referendum result. “Revoke A50” because they think we voted the wrong way.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited December 2019

    So Starmer will negotiate a customs union with the EU within a month and then will campaign against it

    You could not make this up

    I don`t find this as nonsensical as you do - my problem with it is that it will result in a ref comprising Remain v sort-of-Remain.

    It cannot respresent an honouring of the 2016 referendum if Brexit supporters don`t regard it as Brexit, and so will not quell the fury. Rather it will intensify it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    You could conclude from the interview swerve that the Tory internal polling suggests it really doesn't matter if they bunk it they are so far ahead
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
    That would be true, were it not for their flagship policy of overturning a referendum result because the people voted the ‘wrong’ way.
    Ah, the 'too much democracy' argument!
    They’re not arguing for ‘more democracy’, they’re arguing to overturn the referendum result. “Revoke A50” because they think we voted the wrong way.
    By winning an election.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    The atmosphere here amongst Tories reminds me of a Test match where Tories are 420 all out and 300 in the third innings, Labour have posted 320 and are chasing 400 to win...
    Nothing is certain. Letsnot get too exited at the thought of Corbyn being crushed...difficult i know but try...
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Anyway a bad tempered thread for Friday

    Yes, I was just thinking that. Tempers fraying as the final week gets underway.

    Local campaigning round here seems to have got more ill tempered too. Labour have stopped attacking the (incumbent, safe) Conservative and are training their fire on the Lib Dem candidate. I almost wonder if there’s been a national strategy to hit the LDs so they’re in no place to challenge for second when the inevitable Corbyn defeat happens and Wrong-Daily takes over.
    My Facebook feed suggests that this is the case.
  • By 'change' they mean deference and allowing the politician to spout raw propaganda unchallenged. This is a chilling taster of what the Boris regime will look like.
    Yes judges and the media have to follow dear leaders wishes. MPs who dont show blind loyalty are expelled from the party. If only we had a word to describe politicians who exhibit such behaviours.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019
    Endillion said:

    I'm stumped as to why Mike thinks 'it will play a big part in tonight's debate' - the BBC will look ridiculous if they push the PM on why he wont face scrutiny on the BBC whilst hes facing scrutiny on the BBC. He will point out he is, and in front of the public who are rather more important than Andrew Neil's ego (and I think he should have done the interview but his decision not to is being way overblown by hopecasters)

    Er, this.

    It's the same argument as those who were arguing a few months ago that Labour would suffer from being perceived to have blocked an election due to being scared of facing the electorate. Failing to realise that it didn't matter until an election was called. Which could only happen with their support. At which point they would no longer appear scared.
    Precisely. I can't believe we're still on this utter nonsense - any validity the attack might have will disappear once the Boris-Corbyn debate happens live ... on the BBC!

    Meanwhile, as everyone gets excited about one interviewer, the dog I keep telling everyone is about to bark is emitting a furious growl.

    If this story gets the slightest bit of traction, it will ENRAGE Leave voters and turn them out in droves:


    On the front page of Sky news Home:

    https://news.sky.com/story/johnson-accuses-corbyn-of-trying-to-fiddle-second-eu-referendum-in-pre-debate-letter-11879167

    Boris Johnson has accused Jeremy Corbyn of planning to "fiddle" a second referendum, ahead of their final TV debate of the election campaign.

    The prime minister has written to Mr Corbyn, claiming Labour would give two million EU nationals the vote in a "sly attempt to undermine" the 2016 referendum result which would make it much harder for Leave to win.

    Mr Johnson's attack on Mr Corbyn is almost identical to an allegation made by his controversial adviser Dominic Cummings last week, confirming that Mr Cummings is masterminding the prime minister's Brexit strategy.

    "Even worse, your manifesto sets out plans to fiddle your second referendum on Brexit. You want to give two million EU nationals the vote in your referendum."

    "This is a sly attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum, and is profoundly undemocratic. No true democrat, even the most ardent supporter of Remain, could support your attempt to undermine the result of a democratically expressed vote."





  • nico67 said:

    Worth noting that Boris was on This Morning yesterday, I believe 3.5 million people watch that.

    It averages around 1 million viewers . I’d expect a bit more because Johnson was on .
    Probably more. Phil & Holly are big on the social media.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGKbfXqyTzg
    Does anybody else think having Mr. Johnson in front of Christmas decorations give a more instinctively positive perception?
    Maybe it is just because I love Christmas

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    The regularity with which Bozo fanboys like MarqueeMark keep telling us that dodging the AN interview doesn't matter in the slightest suggests that it does.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Mango said:

    Anyway a bad tempered thread for Friday

    Yes, I was just thinking that. Tempers fraying as the final week gets underway.

    Local campaigning round here seems to have got more ill tempered too. Labour have stopped attacking the (incumbent, safe) Conservative and are training their fire on the Lib Dem candidate. I almost wonder if there’s been a national strategy to hit the LDs so they’re in no place to challenge for second when the inevitable Corbyn defeat happens and Wrong-Daily takes over.
    My Facebook feed suggests that this is the case.
    Also Burgon on Newsnight yesterday
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    Worse. Boris could prep and ride out the interview and no-one would care.

    Sure, opposition activists would share a few clips of Boris squirming but it wouldn’t shift anything.

    On the other hand being frit is something everyone understands and no-one respects.
    It makes corbyn decision to do the interview, wether in the knowledge that Johnson wouldn’t or more likely by luck, has turned out to his advantage.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    See what you did there. But one will also search in vain for Red Ed's one. And this is the point. But anyway, sorted now. The Neil mini monologue was enough IMO to mitigate the BBC's error.
    Did Ed never do an interview with Andrew Neil?

    The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
  • I don't know the numbers watching the other Neill interviews but don't expect they are near Coronation Street or a top football match. However is Boris did appear on Neill now, I suspect the numbers would go stratospheric, given the publicity. Think his advisors are sensible in keeping him away, he can only seem to cope with generailsations not forensic examination.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    You could conclude from the interview swerve that the Tory internal polling suggests it really doesn't matter if they bunk it they are so far ahead

    Or they are haemorrhaging so many votes they can't risk losing any more.

    (just for you, @FrancisUrquhart)
  • Stocky said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.
    No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.
    Unwise to propose a policy you believe in, Stuart? Surprised to hear that from you.
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I cannot recollect the SNP brandishing the slogan “Bollocks to Britain”.
    No but that`s what they think
    We could have a fun festive game on what parties really think as opposed to their public pronouncements (the BJ party might be particularly interesting).

    The main takeaway would be curb your enthusiasm for saying what you really think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    By 'change' they mean deference and allowing the politician to spout raw propaganda unchallenged. This is a chilling taster of what the Boris regime will look like.
    Yes judges and the media have to follow dear leaders wishes. MPs who dont show blind loyalty are expelled from the party. If only we had a word to describe politicians who exhibit such behaviours.
    Winners.....
  • Streeter said:

    Opens the door for all politicians to refuse interviews that don't suit them.

    A very bad day for democracy, but that's what we've come to expect from our Eton-grown Trump.

    It will not cost him a single vote. When you are up against Jeremy Corbyn, you can win an election by lying and running away. But you can also win it by telling the truth and facing detailed scrutiny. Johnson's decsion to employ the forner strategy will cost him dear in the longer term, but he may not have been capable of doing anything else.
    What I say might be controversial, but the fact is that well politicians dont need the media anymore.

    In the past, they had to do things like this to get their message out, TV mattered, newspapers matter, radio mattered as they could hear your voice and message.

    Now, it's not needed, they can do social media, or facebook interviews, or things on twitter and bypass the established media.

    That might not be good thing, as it means politicians cant be challenged or questioned in the same way, but it's a fact and a rather worrying one.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Streeter said:

    Opens the door for all politicians to refuse interviews that don't suit them.

    A very bad day for democracy, but that's what we've come to expect from our Eton-grown Trump.

    It will not cost him a single vote. When you are up against Jeremy Corbyn, you can win an election by lying and running away. But you can also win it by telling the truth and facing detailed scrutiny. Johnson's decsion to employ the forner strategy will cost him dear in the longer term, but he may not have been capable of doing anything else.
    It won't cost him a vote amongst those who's primary motivation is fear of a Bolivarian British Republic under Corbyn, but for a lot of the types of long term labour voters the tories want to win, those who may not like Corbyn but don't necessarily fear him winning, it can have cut through. Certain unexpected things do, like Fox Hunting or the Dementia tax (and avoiding debates) for May. The bacon sarnie and the SNP puppetmaster issue for Miliband etc.

    People have always thought of Boris as unprincipled, perhaps a bit of a liar etc so things that conform to that don't cut through. Before this campaign there was no reason to call Boris a coward. That there is no is a risk for him.

    Corbyn is still going to be more unpopular with the public overall than Boris, but its an unforced error from the tory side to give this frit attack line at all.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    Worse. Boris could prep and ride out the interview and no-one would care.

    Sure, opposition activists would share a few clips of Boris squirming but it wouldn’t shift anything.

    On the other hand being frit is something everyone understands and no-one respects.
    How much respect do Leave voters have for the BBC? Zero. They regard it - rightly - as a 100% Pro-Remain propaganda organ.

    Picking a fight with the BBC in the final week does nothing to hurt Boris with his key demographic for this election.

    Garde ta foy! :wink:
  • Danny Cotton to stand down early from the London Fire Brigade
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    OllyT said:

    The regularity with which Bozo fanboys like MarqueeMark keep telling us that dodging the AN interview doesn't matter in the slightest suggests that it does.

    Whatever. Keep going on about it all day if you like. Right up until 8.30 pm, when Boris is, er, on the telly not dodging the public questioning.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.

    There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
    Clearly you are on another planet. 2017 in Inverness SCons went from 4th to 2nd and In Ross, Skye and Lochaber from 3rd to 2nd. In Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross the Tory vote rose by 16% between 2015 and 2017. In East Dunbartonshire in 2017 the SNP went down 10%, 6% going to the SCons and 4% to the SLibs. Get your facts correct before talking shite!
    We have been talking Caithness and East Dunbartonshire, not the other seats - so get back in your hole. % increases are no indication of being competitive when they come from a pathetic base level are leave you in a distant 3rd, as was the case in both seats in 2017. You get your facts right. I would not even have transferred you to the marketing department for such twisting of data - I would have sacked you on the spot.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2019

    My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

    Great post because this had been my thinking. It may (or likely may not) bring about a change for the better but plenty of people in this demographic voted Brexit because they thought their lives would improve as a result and ain't no one promising to give it to them but Boris.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Mango said:

    Anyway a bad tempered thread for Friday

    Yes, I was just thinking that. Tempers fraying as the final week gets underway.

    Local campaigning round here seems to have got more ill tempered too. Labour have stopped attacking the (incumbent, safe) Conservative and are training their fire on the Lib Dem candidate. I almost wonder if there’s been a national strategy to hit the LDs so they’re in no place to challenge for second when the inevitable Corbyn defeat happens and Wrong-Daily takes over.
    My Facebook feed suggests that this is the case.
    Also Burgon on Newsnight yesterday
    That has always been the plan, the so called big two don’t want a resurgent third force as it’s easier to wait for buggins turn. They also hate losing all those council seats to someone they don’t understand.
  • isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    See what you did there. But one will also search in vain for Red Ed's one. And this is the point. But anyway, sorted now. The Neil mini monologue was enough IMO to mitigate the BBC's error.
    Did Ed never do an interview with Andrew Neil?

    The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
    Fake news. It would have been Paxman who was the BBC's lead interviewer in 2015.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    Not all Tories are pro-Brexit, but it may be that Remainer Tories are too tribal to be of any assistance to the LDs.
    No, not all Caithness and East Dunbartonshire Tories are pro-Brexit, but *enough* are to make the Lib Dem positioning profoundly unwise. They cannot afford to lose *any* Con tactical support in these key marginal seats.
    Unwise to propose a policy you believe in, Stuart? Surprised to hear that from you.
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I cannot recollect the SNP brandishing the slogan “Bollocks to Britain”.
    One point that I think could become very interesting if we don't end up with a Tory majority, is that the idea of second referendums is very good news for the SNP, but the idea of confirmatory votes on exit deals is incredibly bad news.

    Labour will be using the latter branding in England and Wales ("final say on Brexit"). The SNP, and probably Lib Dems, will very much want to steer towards the former.
  • By 'change' they mean deference and allowing the politician to spout raw propaganda unchallenged. This is a chilling taster of what the Boris regime will look like.
    Yes judges and the media have to follow dear leaders wishes. MPs who dont show blind loyalty are expelled from the party. If only we had a word to describe politicians who exhibit such behaviours.
    Winners.....
    Is that your view on Orban, Bolsonaro and Trump? Or would you prefer those who take it even further like Putin, Mussolini and Kim Jong-Un?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    We are anticipating many taking a look at their ballot paper and falling under the spell of that Brexit Party arrow?
    Hahaha.

    This is serious. We need to talk about what a 100 seat majority government would do? The manifesto is thread bare.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    Are most voters really going to distinguish between an Andrew Neil interview and the debate tonight? A lot of people are probably going to see Johnson tonight and say "Oh look, Boris has decided to go and do that TV show after all".
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    Just a little nugget to keep all you lefties happy. An SNP source claims that here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross that their man is in front with the SCons in 2nd place and Jamie Stone 3rd. Also that they are increasingly confident that Stephen Gethins will hold NE Fife. Seems to tie in with the suggestion internal Liberal polling is showing Jo Swinson between 6 and 10% behind the SNP as was reported on here the other day. Liberals back to just Orkney and Shetland in Scotland would be the icing on the cake.

    I simply don't believe that Jo Swinson can be behind. Think that is ramping TBH. More willing to believe that Jamie Stone in CSER may have trouble keeping his unionist coalition together because Caithness is so Brexity.
    ”Bollocks To Brexit” may have sounded like a neat slogan in the Lib Dem London headquarters, but it is sheer idiocy in seats like Caithness or East Dunbartonshire, where the Lib Dems are *entirely* dependent upon Tories lending them tactical support.
    It is complete rubbish. Since Caithness became a seat in 1997 the Conservatives have been nowhere, never coming better than 3rd and usually 4th. That is not a case of Conservative votes being leant to the LDs. It is a case of the Conservatives being widely despised or ignored in the area. The same for East Dunbartonshire and its predecessor, Strathkelvin. The last time the Conservatives came higher than 3rd was in 1997.

    There must be real desperation in Conservative camps in Scotland to come up with such fairy stories.
    Your data actually supports my contention.

    (Incidentally, I’m not a Conservative.)
    In terms of its basis demographics there is no reason why SCOn should not be competitive in CSER. It ticks many of their boxes. It;s just that they have seemed out of contention and their natural voters have gone with the LibDems. Brexit has, as we have seen, a tendency to break voting patterns however.
    That is a different (and defensible) assertion to the ludicrous fairy story originally put forward by others.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    See what you did there. But one will also search in vain for Red Ed's one. And this is the point. But anyway, sorted now. The Neil mini monologue was enough IMO to mitigate the BBC's error.
    Two wrongs make a right. I guess you kinda haveta believe that to be even considering voting Labour next Thursday.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited December 2019
    nunu2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    We are anticipating many taking a look at their ballot paper and falling under the spell of that Brexit Party arrow?
    Hahaha.

    I thought that The Brexit Party arrow was to be positioned on the ballot paper so as to point towards the Conservative candidate?
  • OllyT said:

    The regularity with which Bozo fanboys like MarqueeMark keep telling us that dodging the AN interview doesn't matter in the slightest suggests that it does.

    I think it is a mistake and he should have done it as scheduled

    However, I do not see it making any difference
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Brom said:

    nunu2 said:

    We are heading for a landslide tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win
    We are heading for a landslide Tory win

    Every important indicator points to it. And yet people are still talking about a hung Parliament? What the hell is going on?

    2017 happened. I'll wait for the weekend polls, last year there were a few that came close to predicting the result. If they are all 6 points upwards lead for the Tories this weekend then hung parliament becomes very unlikely.

    Most postal votes already sent off I'd imagine.
    If its 10 points or more its Tory landslide
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    BluerBlue said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    Worse. Boris could prep and ride out the interview and no-one would care.

    Sure, opposition activists would share a few clips of Boris squirming but it wouldn’t shift anything.

    On the other hand being frit is something everyone understands and no-one respects.
    How much respect do Leave voters have for the BBC? Zero. They regard it - rightly - as a 100% Pro-Remain propaganda organ.

    Picking a fight with the BBC in the final week does nothing to hurt Boris with his key demographic for this election.

    Garde ta foy! :wink:
    And yet, look at the coverage for the debate tonight from the BBC. When discussing the candidates they make sure to point out that Boris went to Eton and Oxford. For Jezza they merely say he was "brought up in Shropshire".

    I would see that as anti-Cons bias but who cares. Each person sees what they want through the prism of their own beliefs.
  • The penny had dropped below the line on Guardian articles that they're going to get drubbed, but it is all the voters' fault, damn them.

    'Baricade' attempts to deliver the truth about policy/campaign/leadership but will he succeed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/06/people-are-fed-up-tired-and-scared-the-battle-for-wrexham?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu2 said:
    Their model looks generally OK but it has some issues, no way is Mike Gapes getting 24% in Ilford South
    Which means labour lose more elsewhere

    Which is even worse for Labour!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited December 2019

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    He's not doing it because he knows AN is going to ask a question (probably about his fucking stupid kids) that he is going to have to respond to with a direct lie.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited December 2019
    The Neil takedown confirmed to me that "Boris" is not doing the interview. If it was still in the offing Neil would not have gone for the jugular as he did. And I think it's fair dues now. The Beeb have mitigated their error. "Boris" is now OK in my eyes to stay away from Neil. He's suffered a hit for it and that is pleasing. Fairness restored. Very important that it was. What does surprise me is him blowing off Julie Etchingham. How is he going to negotiate a good trade deal with the EU if he's scared of Julie Etchingham?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    Streeter said:

    Opens the door for all politicians to refuse interviews that don't suit them.

    A very bad day for democracy, but that's what we've come to expect from our Eton-grown Trump.

    It will not cost him a single vote. When you are up against Jeremy Corbyn, you can win an election by lying and running away. But you can also win it by telling the truth and facing detailed scrutiny. Johnson's decsion to employ the forner strategy will cost him dear in the longer term, but he may not have been capable of doing anything else.
    Mrs Thatcher won the 1983 election by default despite riots, recession and the highest ever unemployment rate, because she was up against Michael Foot. The same thing is going to happen with Johnson because his opponent is Corbyn. Another "by default" election.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    HYUFD said:

    'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'

    My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

    You make a very good point. It will propel Bozo into number 10 next week but the big question is what do those people do when they realise by the next GE that Brexit has not made a jot of difference to their areas and in fact may have even made it worse.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Fenster said:

    And re the Hobson's choice at next week's GE. One non-political friend commented yesterday that choosing who to vote for is like choosing who to find in bed with your wife.

    Excellent analogy.
    I think I'd have to vote for Swinson on that basis, though a vote for the greens would give a 50:50 chance of an acceptable outcome.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Mango said:

    Anyway a bad tempered thread for Friday

    Yes, I was just thinking that. Tempers fraying as the final week gets underway.

    Local campaigning round here seems to have got more ill tempered too. Labour have stopped attacking the (incumbent, safe) Conservative and are training their fire on the Lib Dem candidate. I almost wonder if there’s been a national strategy to hit the LDs so they’re in no place to challenge for second when the inevitable Corbyn defeat happens and Wrong-Daily takes over.
    My Facebook feed suggests that this is the case.
    We've not had any such request. Here in Surrey we're running a purely positive campaign and refraining from any attacks on the LibDems, apart from politely saying SW Surrey isn't really somewhere to worry about tactical voting and they really should be concentrating on Guildford as the realistic target, which I think is 100% true.

    I do get a sense that the party is focusing on the North now, however much we say otherwise. Which makes sense at this point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Economist:

    Mr Johnson runs the most unpopular new government on record; Mr Corbyn is the most unpopular leader of the opposition. On Friday the 13th, unlucky Britons will wake to find one of these horrors in charge.

    A strong Lib Dem showing would signal to voters who favour open markets and a liberal society that the centre is alive. The past few years have shown why Parliament needs good people such as Sam Gyimah, who left the Tories because of their extremism, and Chuka Umunna, who left Labour because of theirs. The course of Brexit has been repeatedly changed for the better by independent-minded MPs making the running. If Britain withdraws from the EU in January, the Lib Dem MPs will be among the best advocates of a deep trade deal and the strongest opponents of no-deal. There is no good outcome to this nightmare of an election. But for the centre to hold is the best hope for Britain.

    Those shining lights the Economist cites are vacuous politicians who believe in nothing but themselves. Vacuous, shallow? Sounds like the Economist in fact. The Lib Dems are not the centre, they are the wolf jumper-wearing, hummus-chomping, gender neutral passport brandishing, woke-metropolitan liberal elite. No offence to Mike...
    True, but paragons of virtue by comparison to the Conservative and Labour Parties.
    That would be true, were it not for their flagship policy of overturning a referendum result because the people voted the ‘wrong’ way.
    Ah, the 'too much democracy' argument!
    They’re not arguing for ‘more democracy’, they’re arguing to overturn the referendum result. “Revoke A50” because they think we voted the wrong way.
    By winning an election.
    I guess we’ll know what the public thinks of the Revoke policy, around this time next week!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    He's not doing it because he knows AN is going to ask a question (probably about his fucking stupid kids) that he is going to have to respond to with a direct lie.
    More likely he would just refuse to answer the question. Quite rightly.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    Interesting three-way battle in Ynys Mon.

    Any views?

    Tories nailed on at 5/1. Is Ynys Mon a night time count, or do I have to wait till Friday for satisfaction?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    The Neil takedown confirmed to me that "Boris" is not doing the interview. If it was still in the offing Neil would not have gone for the jugular as he did. And I think it's fair dues now. The Beeb have mitigated their error. "Boris" is now OK in my eyes to stay away from Neil. He's suffered a hit for it and that is pleasing. Fairness restored. Very important that it was. What does surprise me is him blowing off Julie Etchingham. How is he going to negotiate a good trade deal with the EU if he's scared of Julie Etchingham?

    He isn't...

    He doesn't want a good trade deal - he wants his name on the list of people who are prime minster.

    And to do that and stay there he needs to leave the EU and sign up for whatever deal he can get that allows us to have a trade deal by 31st December 2020.

    Oh and because it's a crap trade deal he will be able to blame the EU for the years he is in power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    Worse. Boris could prep and ride out the interview and no-one would care.

    Sure, opposition activists would share a few clips of Boris squirming but it wouldn’t shift anything.

    On the other hand being frit is something everyone understands and no-one respects.
    It makes corbyn decision to do the interview, wether in the knowledge that Johnson wouldn’t or more likely by luck, has turned out to his advantage.
    Watch the footage again. It was not to Corbyn's advanatage.

    Any chance of Boris doing AN was killed on Sunday morning by Andrew Marr, his face betraying the contempt he feels for Boris, his anger at failing to get a gotcha! moment meaning he had so lost his cool by the end that even as the credit music played out, he couldn't face looking up from his notes. He spent nearly as much time talking as Boris did - there was no opportunity for the PM to get a clear message across. It was the BBC with An Agenda.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    The penny had dropped below the line on Guardian articles that they're going to get drubbed, but it is all the voters' fault, damn them.

    'Baricade' attempts to deliver the truth about policy/campaign/leadership but will he succeed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/06/people-are-fed-up-tired-and-scared-the-battle-for-wrexham?CMP=share_btn_tw

    It'll be the fault of gammons, millionaires, stupid peasants not realising what's in their best interest, etc. Nothing to do with Corbyn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, vox pops from the office - the line about Boris having to face up to Putin and not willing to face up to Brillo is hurting. The rest people don't care about it's "politics" but that line is hurting Bozza.

    It’s utterly stupid and is going to seriously damage him.
    As much damage as doing the interview might do?
    He's not doing it because he knows AN is going to ask a question (probably about his fucking stupid kids) that he is going to have to respond to with a direct lie.
    Nah he can dissemble on that. Neil will ask him about the cuts in the Cleethorpes to Ludborough bus service, the library closures in Brighouse, and the school where parents have to buy their own books in Swadlincote.

    And Boris will look like an utter twat because he has no handle whatsoever on those issues.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Oh, and the second item on the BBC News website?

    "General election 2019: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn in TV debate"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    You could conclude from the interview swerve that the Tory internal polling suggests it really doesn't matter if they bunk it they are so far ahead

    I can’t help thinking the media are overplaying their hand, by going on this on a day when the PM will be attending a televised debate.

    They should have gone hard on it a week ago.
  • Apparently Swinson agreed to be interviewed by Emma Barnett for Women's Hour, and it is car crash stuff.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Anyone got a link to PM Cameron’s interview with Andrew Neil?

    See what you did there. But one will also search in vain for Red Ed's one. And this is the point. But anyway, sorted now. The Neil mini monologue was enough IMO to mitigate the BBC's error.
    Did Ed never do an interview with Andrew Neil?

    The point is that successful PMs avoid challenging interviews and scrutiny, it’s not just Boris that does so. It’s called being the incumbent
    Fake news. It would have been Paxman who was the BBC's lead interviewer in 2015.

    Not really, Paxman left Newsnight in 2014

    Andrew Neil has banged on for years about how David Cameron refused to give him an interview.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    Diversity just means people from different heritage with the same views. Matthew Syed is trying to right that wrong

    ttps://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1202675864296669184?s=21

    Dan Hannan has a good line that “BBC Diversity” is a group of people who all look different but think the same.
    Translation: "the people who don't look like me disagree with me"

    It would be a slightly better line coming from someone who doesn't "look" like Dan Hannan (who went to the most expensive independent day school in Britain, apparently, so should feel quite at home on the BBC).
  • A lot of overthinking going on here this morning. You can’t paint Boris as a coward when he keeps doing interviews and appearing in debates. Or rather, you can, but only with people who already didn’t like him. And if you try, then it drowns our policy arguments. Theresa May had other issues.

    You’ll also find that the BBC stops focusing on Neil soon. Why? Because it’s the BBC.other media will also hardly but into the narrative that only one BBC interview “counts”.

    To put it another way, in the words of our former PM at the last election: NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
This discussion has been closed.