Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number that should worry the Tories

15681011

Comments

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    ..or if he'd liked FB pages sereotyping Jews, or sympathised with terrorist groups who want to wipe Israel from the map......oh wait a minute.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    RobD said:
    You can see why the Labour attack has shifted on to the LibDems in recent days.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    camel said:

    Morning Kinabalu. I could have done with you late last night. I was making a stout defence of our Laura, but I was sadly alone. People think Labour's best chance for 2024 lies somewhere in your manor - well more round Islington and Camden.

    Morning morning. She has to retain that seat first but if she does I think it's chocks away. Another leader from North London is the last thing we need IMO. Let's go for a vibrant young working class woman from the north. What a contrast with who the other lot are saddled with!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,321
    How can anyone listen to that and think he says 'colour'? Its clearly talent, utter wankery from channel 4
  • Options

    Now 5m views

    Cheeky question, Mike, but I'd love your actual opinion:

    Which number will end up higher, the number of views on that video, or the number of Labour votes cast in this election?
  • Options


    What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.

    But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...

    Yes, of course. He is lying. But that is what he does.

  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    I don't see a " number of views" figure when I go to watch it - what's it up to now?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    RobD said:
    Flavible: Con maj 110.
    ElectoralCalculus: Con maj 48.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Wondering where will be the best place to scrape the results data live on the night? Now I have all the historic data, thinking of making a live automatic updated version so we can see as fast as possible the Tories really are making the progress they need or no.

    You're taking over all my traditional jobs on election night, lol.
    If people want to make suggestions / colab, I am open to it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    It. Is. Talent.

    Colourgate over before it begun. It would have been such a strange thing to have said (colour).
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028


    What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.

    But Brexit will not make any difference except, perhaps, to cut down the immigration of white Europeans. India indicated a while back that any post-Brexit deals with them would require the relaxation of immigration controls. I cannot see that pleasing Leaverstan...

    Yes, of course. He is lying. But that is what he does.

    He said ‘people of talent’
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    edited December 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there

    Yes, he does.

    I don’t think so.

    Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst

    He literally says "people of colour".

    Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
    People Of Colour (or POC) is actually the currently correct and woke term in US politics and thus in internet-speak and amongst youngsters globally!

    Boris is in fact being of-the-moment PC here.

    He is just telling another lie about immigration. The term he uses is neither here nor there.

  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    It. Is. Talent.

    Colourgate over before it begun. It would have been such a strange thing to have said (colour).

    I don't think the Tories will be unhappy if this causes a stir.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "People of colour" is ABSOLUBTELY the correct current politically/woke term right now.

    In that case I definitely won`t be using it. Sorry if I sound all uppity.
    I think I have heard Corbyn uses the acronym BAME as a spoken adjective, which sounds weirder.
  • Options

    RobD said:

    I wonder if Tories here would allow Corbyn to get out of racism by using the clumsy language defence. Don’t really need to ask, we know the answer

    Was Johnson’s answer racist? Welcoming immigration but in a controlled manner seems sensible
    Referring to people of colour specifically is dog whistle racism yes. Imagine if Corbyn has said the same about Jews.
    No, it isn't: the current PC term is "People of Colour". AOC and the Justice Democrats in the US are contractually-obliged to use the phrase several times a day.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    I think it's an accepted term now, at least I've heard white liberals use "person of colour" fairly regularly.
    I would never use it because it's ridiculous to refer to people as a colour.
    Neither would I - it`s cringeworthy.
    It's even more *cringe* than that. In America the term has been widely extended, so you can have "actors of color", "builders of color", "chemists of color", "painters of color". "pirates of color", and "dentists of color". And "lesbians of color".

    https://dentistry.vcu.edu/alumni/support/the-first-100-dentists-of-color/
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    How can anyone listen to that and think he says 'colour'? Its clearly talent, utter wankery from channel 4

    Just listened, its 100% talent. Sounds nothing like colour! It's not exactly Yanni or Laurel is it!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,321
    Channel 4 delete the video their slur havung been exposed. Wankers.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    eek said:

    He isn't...

    He doesn't want a good trade deal - he wants his name on the list of people who are prime minster.

    And to do that and stay there he needs to leave the EU and sign up for whatever deal he can get that allows us to have a trade deal by 31st December 2020.

    Oh and because it's a crap trade deal he will be able to blame the EU for the years he is in power.

    Probably right but I hold the minority opinion that he will end up extending the Transition and doing a closely aligned trade deal with the EU. A 'soft brexit'. Just for the simple reason that anything else is plain dumb.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    TOPPING said:

    It. Is. Talent.

    Colourgate over before it begun. It would have been such a strange thing to have said (colour).

    Might not be a bad 'storm' to erupt for a bit for the Tories now though before tonight as @AndyJS points out..
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Flavible: Con maj 110.
    ElectoralCalculus: Con maj 48.
    Barnesian: Labour Maj 25.

    Kidding, I'm kidding!
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    What we need is more info of where the Labour uptick is coming from. Is it London, is it the Midlands and North.

    Its London and the south. Exactly the wrong places for them
  • Options
    He claims he said person of talent.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028

    BluerBlue said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there

    Yes, he does.

    I don’t think so.

    Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst

    He literally says "people of colour".

    Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
    People Of Colour (or POC) is actually the currently correct and woke term in US politics and thus in internet-speak and amongst youngsters globally!

    Boris is in fact being of-the-moment PC here.

    He is just telling another lie about immigration. The term he uses is neither here nor there.

    Deja vu all over again. Look before you leap J-Dubz
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    Well done @isam
  • Options
    Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong
  • Options
    BluerBlue said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Flavible: Con maj 110.
    ElectoralCalculus: Con maj 48.
    Barnesian: Labour Maj 25.

    Kidding, I'm kidding!
    Far too low for his model....Labour landslide.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,321
    BluerBlue said:

    RobD said:

    I wonder if Tories here would allow Corbyn to get out of racism by using the clumsy language defence. Don’t really need to ask, we know the answer

    Was Johnson’s answer racist? Welcoming immigration but in a controlled manner seems sensible
    Referring to people of colour specifically is dog whistle racism yes. Imagine if Corbyn has said the same about Jews.
    No, it isn't: the current PC term is "People of Colour". AOC and the Justice Democrats in the US are contractually-obliged to use the phrase several times a day.
    AOC is also contracted to slip into an accent of color to subtract credence from her arguments and make her look ridiculous
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Byronic said:

    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    I think it's an accepted term now, at least I've heard white liberals use "person of colour" fairly regularly.
    I would never use it because it's ridiculous to refer to people as a colour.
    Neither would I - it`s cringeworthy.
    It's even more *cringe* than that. In America the term has been widely extended, so you can have "actors of color", "builders of color", "chemists of color", "painters of color". "pirates of color", and "dentists of color". And "lesbians of color".

    https://dentistry.vcu.edu/alumni/support/the-first-100-dentists-of-color/
    There probably really is albinos of colour. (I used to see quite a few albinos on Bioko Island in Equatorial Guinea - might have been an island genetics thing.)
  • Options

    He claims he said person of talent.

    He garbled it slightly, but that is clearly what he said - he was going through the standard riff, and that's exactly the standard line. The sentence would make no sense otherwise.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397

    Probably. Richard Tice is their candidate

    Not impressing in Hartlepool, I gather. They call him the bumbling Tice.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".

    Go figure.

    Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?

    What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.

    And a dog whistle

    I imagine that in focus groups many of the big issues that come up around immigration are to do with people of colour - from the sub-Continent, Somalis, Romanies, sub-Saharan Africans, etc. It's not done to acknowledge this openly, so we talk more generally about controlling our borders. This is an instance in which Johnson has flicked through his briefing papers and only picked up half the message. But, again, it will not harm him because it merely reflects what his electorate thinks.

    They used to be Labours electorate. You were perfectly fine with them then
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    Wow, Just watched the video. He very very very obviously says "people of talent"

    Anger and bias is turning sane, clever people like Southam into obsessive thickos, who hear what they want to hear. Truly strange.

    Boris derangement syndrome....
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    The Conservatives are going to have to think what to do about "democratically controlled people of colour" because it is already everywhere.

    Ahem.
  • Options

    Channel 4 delete the video their slur havung been exposed. Wankers.

    Litigation on its way. Boris clearly says talent. Listen to the recording it is nothing like colour

    I think many on here need to be very careful in their comments on this
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Byronic said:

    Stocky said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    I think it's an accepted term now, at least I've heard white liberals use "person of colour" fairly regularly.
    I would never use it because it's ridiculous to refer to people as a colour.
    Neither would I - it`s cringeworthy.
    It's even more *cringe* than that. In America the term has been widely extended, so you can have "actors of color", "builders of color", "chemists of color", "painters of color". "pirates of color", and "dentists of color". And "lesbians of color".

    https://dentistry.vcu.edu/alumni/support/the-first-100-dentists-of-color/
    Well they`re fucking mad over there aren`t they
  • Options
    RobD said:
    BRX down from 3% to 2% overall could be significant because of its implications for the Conservatives chances of gaining seats, although the apparent difference of 1% could be a smaller change disguised by rounding. It amounts to a fall on average from 7% down to 4.6% in the 273 GB seats they are contesting, including all the key Labour marginals, implying that more of the Conservatives' national average of 44% is coming from those seats than hitherto. Even 2.49% would imply an average BXP share in contested seats of only 5.8%, although that would still be higher in Leave voting contested seats, to counter lower shares in other Remain voting seats.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    Wow, Just watched the video. He very very very obviously says "people of talent"

    Anger and bias is turning sane, clever people like Southam into obsessive thickos, who hear what they want to hear. Truly strange.

    No that's unfair, because the subtitles deceive your ear.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Flavible: Con maj 110.
    ElectoralCalculus: Con maj 48.
    Latest Ipsos poll doesn't move the dial. NB it gets 10% weight in the moving average.

  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    camel said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "People of colour" is ABSOLUBTELY the correct current politically/woke term right now.

    In that case I definitely won`t be using it. Sorry if I sound all uppity.
    I think I have heard Corbyn uses the acronym BAME as a spoken adjective, which sounds weirder.
    Funny how the word police appeals to the dim-witted
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    He isn't...

    He doesn't want a good trade deal - he wants his name on the list of people who are prime minster.

    And to do that and stay there he needs to leave the EU and sign up for whatever deal he can get that allows us to have a trade deal by 31st December 2020.

    Oh and because it's a crap trade deal he will be able to blame the EU for the years he is in power.

    Probably right but I hold the minority opinion that he will end up extending the Transition and doing a closely aligned trade deal with the EU. A 'soft brexit'. Just for the simple reason that anything else is plain dumb.
    One could argue that, once Brexit is 'done' (ie irrevocable), it might be in the interests of the SNP to support such a soft deal. Independence must be easier to argue for with an oven-ready soft border at Coldstream.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    Byronic said:

    Wow, Just watched the video. He very very very obviously says "people of talent"

    Anger and bias is turning sane, clever people like Southam into obsessive thickos, who hear what they want to hear. Truly strange.

    Storm in a teacup?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,321
    Ch4 bias clearly on display. Threats to revoke their broadcasting license seem fair game
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2019
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    It was fake news? :D
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Byronic said:

    Wow, Just watched the video. He very very very obviously says "people of talent"

    Anger and bias is turning sane, clever people like Southam into obsessive thickos, who hear what they want to hear. Truly strange.

    Even when warned, they can’t help themselves. All over it on social media too
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    TOPPING said:

    It. Is. Talent.

    Colourgate over before it begun. It would have been such a strange thing to have said (colour).

    I don't think the Tories will be unhappy if this causes a stir.
    Yup, it gets the Andrew Neil spot off the agenda.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited December 2019
    How long do you think Cummings and Johnson had to work on that so that he could say talent in a way that made it sound like he'd said colour?

    And trick the automatic subtitles, too. Truly impressive work.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Boris should sue the fuck out of Channel 4, and all the idiots on here who persuaded themselves he said something they so very very much WANTED him to say
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
  • Options
    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    Channel 4 have now deleted
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:
    Flavible: Con maj 110.
    ElectoralCalculus: Con maj 48.
    Latest Ipsos poll doesn't move the dial. NB it gets 10% weight in the moving average.

    26 LD looks high Barnesian. Can get 16/1 on LDs getting 30-39.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    Anyone got OFCOM’s number? Asking for a friend.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Byronic said:

    Wow, Just watched the video. He very very very obviously says "people of talent"

    Anger and bias is turning sane, clever people like Southam into obsessive thickos, who hear what they want to hear. Truly strange.

    Storm in a teacup?
    But what was the colour of the tea?
  • Options
    *raises an eyebrow*

    Sums up the quality of modern politics. And modern political journalism.
  • Options

    Channel 4 delete the video their slur havung been exposed. Wankers.

    Litigation on its way. Boris clearly says talent. Listen to the recording it is nothing like colour

    I think many on here need to be very careful in their comments on this
    Indeed. Relistening to it, it does sound like "talent". Having the subtitles with "people of colour" does not help. It primes you to hear what you have read.
  • Options
    isam said:

    BluerBlue said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there

    Yes, he does.

    I don’t think so.

    Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst

    He literally says "people of colour".

    Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
    People Of Colour (or POC) is actually the currently correct and woke term in US politics and thus in internet-speak and amongst youngsters globally!

    Boris is in fact being of-the-moment PC here.

    He is just telling another lie about immigration. The term he uses is neither here nor there.

    Deja vu all over again. Look before you leap J-Dubz

    Neither you nor I heard talent. But, yes, I need to be a lot more careful.

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:



    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    He does, and it's very strange that he connects that to Brexit.
    Not strange at all - one of the few pluses about Brexit is that it evens up the flow of immigration by removing the current advantages, via FOM, to largely white Europeans and any new system would potentially treat all immigrants the same.

    The flow of immigration is already skewed in favour of non-EU immigrants.

    What? There is FOM for Asian/African countries for example?
  • Options
    isam said:
    You were on the money. (Well, almost. He didn't stutter the "coming here" bit.) But I was definitely wrong, completely deceived by the subtitles.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2019
    If I was the Tories, I would blow this CH4 thing up as big as possible. Arrange a Press Conference ASAP, etc. It plays the narrative of Tories tough on immigration and media bias (even if both are bollocks).
  • Options
    felix said:

    felix said:



    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    He does, and it's very strange that he connects that to Brexit.
    Not strange at all - one of the few pluses about Brexit is that it evens up the flow of immigration by removing the current advantages, via FOM, to largely white Europeans and any new system would potentially treat all immigrants the same.

    The flow of immigration is already skewed in favour of non-EU immigrants.

    What? There is FOM for Asian/African countries for example?

    No, EU immigration has fallen dramatically. Non-EU immigraiton is rising.

  • Options
    Statement from Channel 4

    Boris Johnson says “people of talent” not “people of colour.”

    Our earlier tweet was a mistake. We misheard and we apologise.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    edited December 2019

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there
    Apparantly, the word police say it`s ok to say "people of colour" but one mustn`t say "coloured people".

    Go figure.

    Why can`t we just see individuals as individuals?

    What he says is that Brexit will allow us to have democratic control over the immigration of people of colour. Not of EU citizens, but people of colour. A fascinating insight into the fact Johnson knows what the real issue around immigration is.

    And a dog whistle

    I imagine that in focus groups many of the big issues that come up around immigration are to do with people of colour - from the sub-Continent, Somalis, Romanies, sub-Saharan Africans, etc. It's not done to acknowledge this openly, so we talk more generally about controlling our borders. This is an instance in which Johnson has flicked through his briefing papers and only picked up half the message. But, again, it will not harm him because it merely reflects what his electorate thinks.

    Isn’t sloppiness so awful?! Accuracy is everything
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    If I was the Tories, I would blow this CH4 thing up as big as possible. Arrange a Press Conference ASAP, etc. It plays the narrative of Tories tough on immigration and media bias (even if both are bollocks).

    Yes, they should sue. Channel 4 are clearly as biased and demented as the Boris-haters on here.

    This is ideal for neutralising Neil-gate
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Channel 4 delete the video their slur havung been exposed. Wankers.

    Channel 4's desire to hurt Boris is painful to behold.

    They are going to get some visitors to their officers in early January....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvAhRcUofDk
  • Options
    So people are now, clearly editing the clip to make him say 'of colour' too.

    what a f-ing mess.
  • Options
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'

    My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

    Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.

    If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.

    So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.

    The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
    Yes, that could happen. I'll believe it when I see it.
  • Options
    rkrkrk said:

    Okay, time to cling desperately to straws. My highly unsophisticated model, which:

    *ignore if not interested* just multiplies the vote for a party in all seats by the ratio of current national poll/2017 result, and then assumes 30% tactical voting from Lab -> LD and vice versa, and 10% from Brexit -> Tory....

    *resume reading* reckons the Tories need a 9pt lead for the majority.
    They could just miss it.

    I understand we might see an increase in tactical voting etc but I simply refuse to believe that the Tories need a 9% lead for a majority.

    In fact I suspect that tactical voting has been a bit overplayed this time around. A number of people will vote tactically, as they do at every election, but there will always be a sizeable chunk who will vote for the party they want to, in spite of what Gina Miller’s website or a bar chart might tell them.

    It seems to me that a lot of this is based on pollsters questions such as “will you vote in a way as to stop x from winning?” I am not really sure someone saying “yes” to that has necessarily weighed up the situation in their particular constituency.

    In fact I suspect a lower turnout would actually hurt the Tories, as the more politically engaged (and therefore more likely to turn out) are also more likely to vote tactically to stop them.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2019

    So people are now, clearly editing the clip to make him say 'of colour' too.

    what a f-ing mess.

    The thing is...do the people doing this think it will hurt him? It is the correct "woke" term to use, so not racist and erhhh well the demographic the Tories are targeting are some what concerned about immigration.

    Yeahhh this will f##k him right up....using the right on term to explain how the Tories will control immigration.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    edited December 2019

    Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

    Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do :)


    Edit: Sorry - he kinda did.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Statement from Channel 4

    Boris Johnson says “people of talent” not “people of colour.”

    Our earlier tweet was a mistake. We misheard and we apologise.

    Obviously an attempt at a gotcha moment backfired, Tories have fair claim to being mistreated by Channel 4 News in recent years.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020

    So people are now, clearly editing the clip to make him say 'of colour' too.

    what a f-ing mess.

    Channel 4: fake news peddlers and enablers. :)
  • Options

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Of course, Boris reaches white working class Labour voters who have not voted Tory since Thatcher if ever in a way no other Tory leader would, much as Trump reaches white working class Democrats who have not voted Republican since Reagan'

    My take on it is that WWC voters thing Boris is a fool. But he is a fool who will bring about Brexit. Which the bulk of the WWC (of which I am a part, by the way) think will ameliorate the impacts of deindustrialisation, chronic underinvestment in the north and austerity. They're probably going to be very disappointed.

    Look at it another way. Brexit has given WWC voters in the north a chance and an excuse to vote for the winning electoral side for the first time since Blair. Maybe since Thatcher or Wilson.

    If they win as expected, the new ruling Tory party will be changed: much more slanted to the north, and to the WWC.

    So the north can seriously expect a better deal under Boris, as those new MPs clamour for their causes.

    The WWC are therefore voting logically, and in their own self interest.
    Yes, that could happen. I'll believe it when I see it.
    It's very difficult to see how it could happen. The big money behind Boris is hedge funds, not unions.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    RobD said:

    It was fake news? :D

    Chaneel Fake News might just stick......
  • Options
    melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    For posh Tories and even significant sections of the working class, being racist, specially towards Muslims, is actually a vote catcher. That's a fact. The shit Sun newpapers sells soley, because day in and day out it rants against foreigners, gypsies,Muslims and 'people of Color. So racism is not always a negative, look at Trump
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028

    isam said:

    BluerBlue said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Johnson directly equating getting Brexit done with controlling immigration by "people of colour". My word.
    https://twitter.com/MayaGoodfellow/status/1202902195047403520

    Quite likely he doesn’t say ‘people of colour’ there

    Yes, he does.

    I don’t think so.

    Be careful, you have jumped to incorrect conclusions before on things like this that you are prejudiced on, the Sun blacking up Gina Miller for instance, and you admit you see everything Boris does through the prism of thinking the worst

    He literally says "people of colour".

    Cant see the issue personally, BoJo was talking to Justin Trudeau earlier this week quite happily and he's a sometime person of colour.
    People Of Colour (or POC) is actually the currently correct and woke term in US politics and thus in internet-speak and amongst youngsters globally!

    Boris is in fact being of-the-moment PC here.

    He is just telling another lie about immigration. The term he uses is neither here nor there.

    Deja vu all over again. Look before you leap J-Dubz

    Neither you nor I heard talent. But, yes, I need to be a lot more careful.

    Haha!!! Even now, even now...
  • Options
    felix said:

    Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

    Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do :)

    I already have on here and here ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1202915568271134720

  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    I see Jezza now claims they will deal with anti semitism

    Days after claiming it had been dealt with
  • Options
    RobD said:

    So people are now, clearly editing the clip to make him say 'of colour' too.

    what a f-ing mess.

    Channel 4: fake news peddlers and enablers. :)
    I hope Ofcom is quick to condemn them and the party commence litigation
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Southam wanted it be true.

    That reflects very badly on him.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    edited December 2019


    Sorry seems to be the hardest word.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,976
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Channel 4 clip is excellent at proving how our ears can play tricks when given conflicting info . When I originally saw it I thought it was people of colour but listening on LBC without the subtitles and on the radio you can hear talent .
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    He mis-speaks, either most commonly as a mistake, or what for conspiracy theorists may see as some other reason, saying "Cal-nt".
  • Options
    melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Boris acts like a clown but deep inside he is a shrewd, ruthless and manipulative politician. In reality he has taken the country for a ride and fools the masses.
    In 2005, while aiming to be Mayor of London, he was pro Eu and even wanted Turkey to join in!
    In 2016, while aiming to be PM, he became an eurosceptic and plays to the audience with phrases such as letter boxes etc.
    The country has gone down hill, but Boris has managed to become it's PM. It will be a pyrrhic vicory at the end.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    felix said:

    Fair enough I’ll hold my hands up that I’ve got it wrong

    Good for you - that's something Southam Observer will never do :)

    I already have on here and here ...
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1202915568271134720

    You need to ask yourself why you are SO desperate to think the worst of Boris, and Brexit, that it is literally warping your senses.

    This isn't the first time you've made an embarrassing error by leaping to a false conclusion that best supports your prejudices
  • Options
    isam said:



    Sorry seems to be the hardest word.

    Why would I apologise to you?

  • Options
    RobD said:

    So people are now, clearly editing the clip to make him say 'of colour' too.

    what a f-ing mess.

    Channel 4: fake news peddlers and enablers. :)
    The enablers were surely the party that started the game of editing videos to make, say, Keir Starmer look like a prize lemon.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Brom said:

    Statement from Channel 4

    Boris Johnson says “people of talent” not “people of colour.”

    Our earlier tweet was a mistake. We misheard and we apologise.

    Obviously an attempt at a gotcha moment backfired, Tories have fair claim to being mistreated by Channel 4 News in recent years.
    BBC as well tbf

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7762229/BBC-News-Ten-host-Huw-Edwards-criticised-liking-Tweets-urged-people-vote-Labour.html
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,318

    RobD said:
    Is there much more of the LibDem vote amenable to a squeeze? How much will never vote for the anti-semites? That seems to be about the only question left to ask in this election.

    FWIW I think this might be close to the final outcome. The Libdem slide is going to keep some more SE Tories in the House; the Labour rise will keep their vote slidedown to only semi-disastrous.
    Vote slidedown? The LDs got 7.4% in 2017. Even 13% is approaching double that.

    Yes, they have drifted in the polls, since the summer anyway, but where are BXP? Still well ahead of this time last year. It’s been terrible expectation management.
  • Options
    Channel 4 needs some people of talent asap...

    What a cock up
  • Options
    It's a bit like the Paris in the Spring test from the CIA Psychology of Intelligence Analysis book..
    What's wrong with this?
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    nico67 said:

    The Channel 4 clip is excellent at proving how our ears can play tricks when given conflicting info . When I originally saw it I thought it was people of colour but listening on LBC without the subtitles and on the radio you can hear talent .

    Yes. For anyone still in doubt, I recommend listening to it rather than watching it.

    If you do, it is 100% obvious it is "talent" not "colour", indeed the possibility it is "colour" never even suggests itself.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    edited December 2019
    edit
This discussion has been closed.