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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number that should worry the Tories
By 5am this morning, as my screen grab shows, there had been 3.3m views of the Andrew Neil video attacking Johnson for chickening out of doing an interview with him. That is a staggering number which doubt will increase during the day.
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If you were willing to vote Tory 2 months ago, it's unlikely to be different today, all the campaign is squeeze from LD to Labour.
I expect a fairly comfortable 40 seat majority for the blue team
The idiots in this process are the BBC debate organisers and Corbyn's handlers, who didn't get Boris locked down to a confirmed date before any of the Andrew Neil interviews started airing. Muppets.
I rather suspect that 3.3m is not 3.3m individual voters.... but a rather limited number of Labour and LibDem activists/kids who can't vote/Russian bot farms clicking it, again and again, for shits and giggles.
Number of actual floating voters getting bent out of shape? Small.....
You can’t have it both ways. Either the media matters, or it doesn’t.
We've seen the mailshots.....
Social media is, after all, mostly a cavernous echo chamber.
Besides being a womaniser, a backstabber and a pathological liar. No problem Tories, you all know that Bjo is a douche bag. But he is 'our' douche bag, so it's ok,
I have always thought that Brexit will happen with a whimper rather than a bang, as the country continues its decline and decay.
I think it quite likely that this will be the last UK General Election, after that it will just be England and Wales.
https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1202834052086149120?s=20
Local campaigning round here seems to have got more ill tempered too. Labour have stopped attacking the (incumbent, safe) Conservative and are training their fire on the Lib Dem candidate. I almost wonder if there’s been a national strategy to hit the LDs so they’re in no place to challenge for second when the inevitable Corbyn defeat happens and Wrong-Daily takes over.
a ) Andrew Neil having a hissy fit because Boris's tanks have driven round the BBC's Maginot Line or
b ) the Wrexham poll showing the Labour firewall to be constructed of petrol-soaked balsa wood?
Fortunately I have just realised that time is getting on and I need to go off to work soon. Laters...
One piece of evidence* is local by-election results: there have been quite a few in Scotland recently. The Scottish Tories have done well in all of them, including in lots not in SCon-held constituencies.
Doorstep evidence is that the SCons are doing very well in the Central Belt, as the SLab vote collapses to *all* other parties, including SCon (not just to the SNP, as often lazily assumed). This implies that the SCons may already have maxxed-out in their current seats, and that new SCon votes are being added in areas where they have very little hope of new MPs.
(*Proviso: it is notoriously hard to compare Scottish by-election results with previous election results, due to the STV voting system and multi-candidate wards. There is also no easy way to quickly peruse results.)
Labour's best hope of holding seats currently at grave risk is to get tactical voting from LibDems. Doing so by punching those voters in the face is, er, brave....
Or do you mean the 1979 election?
And I think you’re right with your “no other votes to get” theory.
Similarly we have no idea what is about to hit us.
1) The reunification of Ireland
2) Scottish Independence
3) A Tory Party leadership challenge, which Johnson loses.
Have I missed anything? Plague of toads?
That's what Boris replaced.
Pro-independence 71 (+3)
Pro-London rule 57 (-3)
David Cameron was right: Brexit is undermining the Union.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/06/tory-ministers-back-candidates-accused-of-islamophobia
https://abcnews.go.com/US/tesla-police-vehicle-ran-power-car-chase-california/story?id=65878312&fbclid=IwAR2gUlphEXG8liSwfeI1iQeDEezYq9AfmBltU2I_RKt92rmF7rnooiX_AiU
I am not saying this will or won’t affect anything but essentially you are just making it up too. Videos can be watched by those
- too young to vote
- not allowed to vote I,e Eu nationals
- Not from this country
- Who have already voted
- Who wouldn’t vote Tory in any case
- Who would always vote Tory in any case
The evidence is that these viral videos tend to be shared by people in echo chambers.
I would rather wait for some polling which could show this has some significance rather than assume it is the case.
Be interesting to see if the MRP shows similar. If it does I’d expect a reduced majority of around 20-30.
No at this stage, he has no option other than to brazen it out.
The most likely of these is to demand that we accept FDA rulings on the safety of drugs, and that's quite likely.
Less likely but not unlikely, they could attempt to circumvent NICE, or argue that it constituted a non tariff barrier. (When NICE chooses one drug over another, rather than leaving that choice in the hands of doctors, that could look like protectionism.)
Very unlikely, they could attempt some kind of "equivalence" pricing, where the NHS agreed to pay the same rates as Medicare/Medicaid in the US, which would be a big step up in pricing, and would be strongly resisted by any competent government. Oh shit...
Parallels with the 1930s are easily overcooked, but it does seem as if democracy works well in times of economic prosperity, but really struggles under the strain of prolonged economic stagnation. While overall some parts of the country are doing economically OK, but substantial regions and demographics are clearly not.
I was quite moved by yesterdays BBC report from the foodbank in Grimsby, but the folk there were correct in not knowing what politician can help them. I see why they grasp at straws.
The only way people will accept such a situation if it's seen that everyone suffers to some degree. If the rich get richer, while everyone else is bearing the burden, it's not going to end well for anyone.
I assume your 1930s reference is to Ramsey Macdonald and FDR, rather than some other 1930s politician. Because it's quite early in the day to be staking a claim to today's Godwin award.
“It’s meeting the expectations that we’ve had for it. It’s handling well,” said Bosques, adding that this could have happened with any car, gas or electric.
“We do run out of gas [on pursuits]. It happens. We’ve also had regular cars get flat tires on a pursuit, or cars that just die on a pursuit,” she continued. "
But also John Prescott, Iain Duncan Smith, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, Boris Johnson, Nick Clegg, Menzies Campbell, Jo Swinson. Or to widen it, Leanne Wood.
Not sold on this idea of its success...
This wasn't an election where you picked the best option out of 2 good ones.
It's an election where for most people it's pick the least worst out of 2 very unpalatable options.
It's not going to end well.