I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
I don't even know how I am going to vote, let alone anyone in the area I live in.
An experienced campaigner can usually get a feel from doing some proper campaigning in an area (I did call B&R as a narrower LD win than people were expecting), but someone living there who tries to infer from local knowledge likely to be out of date and conversations with a few friends is not a reliable source.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
I was just testing you, ydoethur
(I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)
In fairness, on a very careful check about half the network around Wrexham is dual track.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day.
Well, TSE threatening to eat pineapple pizza is serious, but I wouldn’t call it momentous.
I gather Johnson and Corbyn are off on one, but frankly who cares?
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
Had. Boris got frit and went for the easy option instead, risking everything.
The longer it goes without an election the more likely your team lose. Another 6 months of silly buggery in parliament, upteem votes lost by Boris, they would be in far worse shape.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
All major parties having voted to bypass it today, none of them can object if a single party uses the same mechanism to override the opposition in future.
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
It would be a lot harder for the Conservatives if it was delayed into next year.
And it would have been harder if Labour had agreed to a GE when Boris first tried to get one.
Yes. This is optimum time for the Tories and sub-optimal for Labour.
That doesn’t mean that a Tory victory is guaranteed, in my view, but it made sense for Boris to go now, pre-Brexit.
I just feel a sense of tremendous relief. A few weeks off from the parliamentary bickering (even if it is replaced with electioneering bickering) will be very welcome. God help us if we end up in a hung parliament again...
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
The route from 2, 3 and 5 to 7 should be interesting.
I really don’t think who the next speaker is will be a big deal .
I can’t see the next parliament being as controversial and Bercow can bow out having helped stop this demented government from inflicting a no deal on the country .
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
Tories in 300-310 range Labour 240-270 LDs around 30ish SNP around 45-50
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
But bogged down for next 6-12 months = much high probability of Jez / SNP alliance.
Now Boris can still play the get Brexit done card, with Labour still having an stupid non-Brexit policy and shortly after a conference where they voted for absolutely bonkers stuff.
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold. 15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
Some of us have been pointing out this route for ages.
If May had gone down this route when she had a majority, she could have had a much shorter campaign.....
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it?
No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
But that assumption was always wrong. And not liking it doesn't mean anything.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But not in time to get it done by 31st October.
This is the Tory Party’s last chance to cement the great Brexit realignment of the electorate, and sever Labour’s generational ties to a host of constituencies. Another election with Corbyn leading Labour is an unexpected gift.
It’s worth the risk. In any case, there are no risk-free options left.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
Still processing it all. I can't help but feel after the undoubted sugar rush wears off the fact if yet another early election will just add to the sense of chaos and systemic failure.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
Well yes, but to be honest, I think Con is going to win. Obviously provisional depending on the YouGov MRP model, but you know what I mean.
Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?
True. It wasn't a waste of time. Even if it sort of made no real difference in the end.
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.
If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
I am not convinced by 7. Same way as I would never say Labour won't win for generation. Characters come and go, direction of travel changes.
Luckily for the Tories, Labour don't look like post-Jezza they will return to more sensible middle ground stuff. The conference shows the membership now think left of centre politics is a dirty word, it is full on hard left bonkers stuff.
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold. 15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
We've already made the gaffe. Hopefully Bozza has enough charisma to overcome it, but I'm not convinced.
Comments
Meanwhile just 20 against the election
Oh, I know - the prime minister should have advised the Queen to refuse royal assent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Now Anna Soubry wading in.
I gather Johnson and Corbyn are off on one, but frankly who cares?
George Canning
Robert Peel - first stint
Viscount Melbourne - first stint
Viscount Goderich
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277521667338241
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277712961150977
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277901562273793
'People don't believe in what they just voted on, how dare they' is just sad.
Ladbrokes has:
Ashfield Inds 11/10
Con 2/1
Lab 3/1
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/general-election-constituency-betting/227804290/
All major parties having voted to bypass it today, none of them can object if a single party uses the same mechanism to override the opposition in future.
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
That doesn’t mean that a Tory victory is guaranteed, in my view, but it made sense for Boris to go now, pre-Brexit.
I just feel a sense of tremendous relief. A few weeks off from the parliamentary bickering (even if it is replaced with electioneering bickering) will be very welcome. God help us if we end up in a hung parliament again...
Sunil's Mum: "I don't care!"
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266223747522562
After three years haven’t we all forgotten how to discuss anything else? Except Trump.
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
Please can we keep it civil?
That's all
I can’t see the next parliament being as controversial and Bercow can bow out having helped stop this demented government from inflicting a no deal on the country .
Anyway, not to worry, Johnson has plenty of experience signing extension letters.
Labour 240-270
LDs around 30ish
SNP around 45-50
Chaos and confusion abound.
Now Boris can still play the get Brexit done card, with Labour still having an stupid non-Brexit policy and shortly after a conference where they voted for absolutely bonkers stuff.
Whether to or not will be decided by the party leaders behind chair
If May had gone down this route when she had a majority, she could have had a much shorter campaign.....
This is the Tory Party’s last chance to cement the great Brexit realignment of the electorate,
and sever Labour’s generational ties to a host of constituencies. Another election with Corbyn leading Labour is an unexpected gift.
It’s worth the risk. In any case, there are no risk-free options left.
Game Over
If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
Luckily for the Tories, Labour don't look like post-Jezza they will return to more sensible middle ground stuff. The conference shows the membership now think left of centre politics is a dirty word, it is full on hard left bonkers stuff.