The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:
That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.
Just been to see 'Official Secrets'. Tony Blair, what the &^%$£ did you think you were doing over Iraq. I know it's a while ago now, but.......
Simples. Brownnosing Bush - an unnecessary and disastrous tendency.
He was afraid of a geopolitical schism between Europe and America, and sacrificed his legacy and ultimately plunged his country into an existential crisis in a futile attempt to act as a bridge.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
First law of politics is that people opposed to anything are always the most exercised.
The first law of politics is that politics has an awful lot of first laws.
Nah, the first law of politics is, ‘count.’
Apart from anything else, if you can’t count you won’t know how many other first laws of politics there are.
One has to establish a whole mathematical framework before one can count.
I think counting was around before the concept of an axiomatic system to explain it and the point of an axiomatic system is that you accept the axioms and thus avoid the need for a framework.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
I live about 25 miles from Stoke but it feels more like 250 miles away.
Not very fair that Anne Main spoke for 35 minutes and Caroline Lucas gets 3 minutes for her speech.
To be fair, that's the last speech in the House of Commons that Anne Main is likely to make.
Why are people so confidently predicting that? Her majority was slashed last time but she still has a massive majority. If Tories are losing seats with such a big majority it seems unlikely they will hold a majority overall.
She doesn't have a massive majority, she has a 6,000 vote one.
On my four part model:
1. UNS?
LD by a big margin.
2. Remainy?
Yes very.
3. Local elections?
LDs did extremely well this year.
4. Squeezability?
Lots of Lab votes to go LD
rcs1000 says "one of about a dozen LD gains this year"
Any majority over 5000 and over 10% in normal times is fairly massive, especially when a party is forecast to be gaining not losing seats! 6000 votes and 10.7% majority is pretty massive in my eyes especially given this is a general election not a by election.
Is UNS really showing LDs taking 10.7% majorities by a big margin?
Of course. The LD vote share is up from 7% to 19%, and the Tories are down from 44% to 37%. If you add 12 point to the LD vote share and take seven from the Conservatives, then it's a LD gain.
So the par line then is a 19% Tory majority over the LDs?
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
SoT - the local joke is that the best thing about SoT is the road out of it. Ironically that was the A50 for a long time....
Still is if you’re heading east for Uttoxeter, Ashbourne and Derby.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:
That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.
Is there an accessible spreadsheet that anyone is aware of that combines the GE 2017 result and the 2016 referendum result by constituency? Logic suggests to me that there should be, but a quick Google search doesn't reveal one.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?
Just been to see 'Official Secrets'. Tony Blair, what the &^%$£ did you think you were doing over Iraq. I know it's a while ago now, but.......
Simples. Brownnosing Bush - an unnecessary and disastrous tendency.
He was afraid of a geopolitical schism between Europe and America, and sacrificed his legacy and ultimately plunged his country into an existential crisis in a futile attempt to act as a bridge.
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).
Absolutely. The LDs have a better chance of winning Wimbledon than North Devon at this election even though they only need a small swing to win the latter and in Wimbledon they were 32% behind in third place. It's going to be more like a Canadian election in many ways, where the swings in different areas are all over the place.
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.
On the subject of 16 and 17 year olds, I would allow them to drink beer, wine and cider at pubs and restaurants without having to have an adult present with a meal as is the case at present, and bring it into line with most mainland European countries. And they should be allowed to vote at local elections IMO.
That is the more sensible solution allow 16+ to vote in locals and see how it goes they are have an interest in local services and would involve them earlier.
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and always being on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty and in to days politics that could be quite a USP.
I don't see the appeal of such devotion, frankly, and his qualities were not so apparenty that he remained happily anonymous on the back benches for 30 years,
However, you are right that he is underestimated and that adoration, however much I do not understand it, is useful.
But it does have limitations, and there are reasons he has spent years struggling with his own MPs and poor ratings - MPs want an easy life, they don't express such concerns without reservations being genuine.
I think the desire for perfect consistency in these matter is misplaced.
Perfect consistency may not be reasonable, but more consistency than we have at present is not, and there are many things where the basic question of if we think they are children or adults would see changes to the age limits.
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke ot ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:
That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.
I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?
There are many areas of the country where the average voter would rather poke his own eyes out with a blunt instrument than vote Tory. Spotty and gullible Boris fanboys that think he will change this dynamic are in for a rude awakening.
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
Hyufd has no idea. He wont be knocking on doors in the dark in deprived areas in the north...
I will be knocking on doors in marginal seats in London and Essex and it is C2 voters the Tories need not deprived DEs who will stay Labour
I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?
I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
Hyufd has no idea. He wont be knocking on doors in the dark in deprived areas in the north...
I will be knocking on doors in marginal seats in London and Essex and it is C2 voters the Tories need not deprived DEs who will stay Labour
Dear Corbyn
Good news! You’re going to do better than expected in London and Essex.
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
after the 2005 election there were 93 'non labour/tory' MPs and Labour got a comfortable majority. That said both Tories and Labour are going to lose votes when compared to the last election, it will make it difficult to determine what seats will change hands (and to whom).
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The Tories already have an MP in Stoke and now have 15 Tory councillors there too, they have plenty of on the ground activists already
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.
Agreed, my very uncertain guess/prediction is a minority Labour administration, not led by Corbyn , with confidence and supply from SNP and LDs. New referendum highly likely, though not necessarily desirable IMHO
See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
The 'strongest leave voting seats' do have some pretty entrenched and well known labour figures - eg Yvette Cooper....surely she would be safe.
I need to find that interview with some bloke on R5 who said that 13 of the 26 Labour "northern leave seats" will remain Labour while Cons might lose its 13 Scots seats leaving it a wash.
Any support for a hunch that at least one of the Tory gains from Labour last time out will revert, because the seats are more BXP friendly and BXP19 will outpoll UKIP 17?
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
They are not yet motivated because currently we are being told we are still leaving. If that looks like changing then it is a very different matter.
A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.
Agreed, my very uncertain guess/prediction is a minority Labour administration, not led by Corbyn , with confidence and supply from SNP and LDs. New referendum highly likely, though not necessarily desirable IMHO
The problem is that for a Labour government to be formed not led by Corbyn, he will have to resign as leader. That seems a bit unlikely if he’s forced a second successive hung Parliament against all the odds.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
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Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
I lived in SOT for 3/4er...
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?
There are many areas of the country where the average voter would rather poke his own eyes out with a blunt instrument than vote Tory. Spotty and gullible Boris fanboys that think he will change this dynamic are in for a rude awakening.
Most of the top 100 Tory target seats did vote for Thatcher or Major or Cameron, they have not always been Labour.
Indeed on current polls the Tories are likely to win some seats for the first time since 1983
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.
Curtice is working from GE outcomes, not subsequent defections and suspensions
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.
Not sure it is very important or novel, no overall majority has been strong odds on most of the last year.
I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?
Sorry for the misunderstanding. Time will tell but as i say footsoldiers are key in winning a seat. Where will the Tories get people to do the donkey work? The Tories are targetting 5 seats around SOT if one includes sot south (its tory but a hyper marginal so will be defence imo), north & central. Then newcastle under lyme plus seperatly crewe and nantwich. I dont see it paying off that is all i am saying.
See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.
See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.
that makes sense. an election has been on the cards for a while (and JC has been calling for one for years). if they haven't selected a candidate yet then they have run out of time.
See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.
Is that traditional Labour or Tory areas?
Cambridge itself has been traditionally red, sometimes blue, sometimes orange. The surrounding seats are blue.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...
The Tories already have an MP in Stoke and now have 15 Tory councillors there too, they have plenty of on the ground activists already
Three different seats in stoke. I am well aware of the tory in sot south. Still you all know better than i do....
I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?
Sorry for the misunderstanding. Time will tell but as i say footsoldiers are key in winning a seat. Where will the Tories get people to do the donkey work? The Tories are targetting 5 seats around SOT if one includes sot south (its tory but a hyper marginal so will be defence imo), north & central. Then newcastle under lyme plus seperatly crewe and nantwich. I dont see it paying off that is all i am saying.
I don’t think it necessarily likely either. All I am pointing out is that the current situation means it isn’t impossible.
As for canvassing do you think a Labour bother to canvass these seats using foot soldiers? If so, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.
Which Tories don't have the whip going into the (probable) election now
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne 5m The 10 independent Conservatives who haven’t been offered the whip:
- Guto Bebb - Ken Clarke - David Gauke - Justine Greening - Dominic Grieve - Philip Hammond - Oliver Letwin - Anne Milton - Antionette Sandbach - Rory Stewart
Quite a few standing down anyway, but Spreadsheet Phil was pouring petrol on the bridge on R4 Today this morning,
Which Tories don't have the whip going into the (probable) election now
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne 5m The 10 independent Conservatives who haven’t been offered the whip:
- Guto Bebb - Ken Clarke - David Gauke - Justine Greening - Dominic Grieve - Philip Hammond - Oliver Letwin - Anne Milton - Antionette Sandbach - Rory Stewart
Quite a few standing down anyway, but Spreadsheet Phil was pouring petrol on the bridge on R4 Today this morning,
Feel like you might as well give Clarke the whip back just for old times sake, as he can no longer cause any more trouble. Some of the others are planning to stand against Tories elsewhere, so doesn't seem unreasonable.
Whatever happens re the Tory rebels they deserve the gratitude of all those who didn’t want a no deal .
Indeed. And the Labour rebels. Whilst CUK and TIG have been a disaster in many ways, they did show that ultimately MPs can be effective parliamentarians without the support of the party whips and patronage. With increasingly authoritarian leaders being selected in both major parties that is an important precedent.
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).
UNS has always been bad for individual seats but good enough for national seat totals.
Given that UNS is the [weighted] average of the individual swings then mathematically it's hard for it not to be reasonably accurate for the national seat totals. In order to break it a party would have to have an optimally distributed swing that was just good enough to win/avoid losing most of the seats (ie big where it needs to be big and small where it didn't).
A Brexit realignment makes that a bit more likely, but not much.
Comments
Well done to her
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/467939-romney-vindman-attacks-absurd-disgusting
It’s absurd, disgusting, and way off the mark. This is a decorated American soldier and he should be given the respect that his service to our country demands...
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1176593835385872384?lang=en
However, you are right that he is underestimated and that adoration, however much I do not understand it, is useful.
But it does have limitations, and there are reasons he has spent years struggling with his own MPs and poor ratings - MPs want an easy life, they don't express such concerns without reservations being genuine. Perfect consistency may not be reasonable, but more consistency than we have at present is not, and there are many things where the basic question of if we think they are children or adults would see changes to the age limits.
We won.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?
Good news! You’re going to do better than expected in London and Essex.
There is a discussion to be had but this needs proper consultation and not attached to this bill .
And to be blunt some MPs were more interested in showboating and looking for campaign slogans .
Either they want an election or they don’t.
https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1189106892670492672
Indeed on current polls the Tories are likely to win some seats for the first time since 1983
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.
Whip restored to the MPs above by the PM..not Spreadsheet Phil though
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.
He’s completely buggered up the railway network and franchising system and the price we’ll all be likely to pay now is nationalisation.
As for canvassing do you think a Labour bother to canvass these seats using foot soldiers? If so, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.
5m
The 10 independent Conservatives who haven’t been offered the whip:
- Guto Bebb
- Ken Clarke
- David Gauke
- Justine Greening
- Dominic Grieve
- Philip Hammond
- Oliver Letwin
- Anne Milton
- Antionette Sandbach
- Rory Stewart
Quite a few standing down anyway, but Spreadsheet Phil was pouring petrol on the bridge on R4 Today this morning,
For balance, that tit in Brighton Kemptown needs to go, as well.
Anyway, he’s an MP in Dorset.
Given that UNS is the [weighted] average of the individual swings then mathematically it's hard for it not to be reasonably accurate for the national seat totals. In order to break it a party would have to have an optimally distributed swing that was just good enough to win/avoid losing most of the seats (ie big where it needs to be big and small where it didn't).
A Brexit realignment makes that a bit more likely, but not much.
It might not be over yet amendment wise
Report stage still to come later tonight
Amendments permissible then
Am told MPs working on amendments on 17 year olds voting etc, anything speaker might find in order
And crucially it’s Bercow who selects, not Hoyle
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.