Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum

12346

Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2019
    Not far off 434 needed under FTPA

  • ELECTION'S ON, LADS.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    438 to 20.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    BONG

    :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.

    One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.

    And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.

    If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
    And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
    I don't even know how I am going to vote, let alone anyone in the area I live in.
    An experienced campaigner can usually get a feel from doing some proper campaigning in an area (I did call B&R as a narrower LD win than people were expecting), but someone living there who tries to infer from local knowledge likely to be out of date and conversations with a few friends is not a reliable source.

    Meanwhile just 20 against the election
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?

    On what grounds?
    I don't know. That's what her lawyers are paid for.

    Oh, I know - the prime minister should have advised the Queen to refuse royal assent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
    I was just testing you, ydoethur :)

    (I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)
    In fairness, on a very careful check about half the network around Wrexham is dual track.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    HYUFD said:

    Artist said:

    There's no danger of the Tories coming through the middle in Cambridge so the people there can vote freely. I think the students could go Lib Dem.

    Cambridge had a Tory MP until 1992
    Good candidate for lost deposit now. How things change.
  • 438 - 20

    Big Labour abstention I assume.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Now Anna Soubry wading in.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Not far off 434 needed under FTPA

    Though that wouldn't have fixed a date.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
  • Soubry making a fool of herself
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    No parliament can bind its successors. Next.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
    Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day. :smile:
    Well, TSE threatening to eat pineapple pizza is serious, but I wouldn’t call it momentous.

    I gather Johnson and Corbyn are off on one, but frankly who cares?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.

    I bet Anna Soubry doesn't!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Some of these points of order are fairly, um, bizarre.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.

    I can't think why! :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Anyway, it’s late and after all the walking I’ve done today I’m tired. Have a good evening everyone,
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    houndtang said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.

    I bet Anna Soubry doesn't!
    Poor Anna. Probably time to start scouring the jobs pages...
  • Soubry making a fool of herself

    The more you see of Soubry the easier it is to understand why the 'Tories for Palmer' group existed.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    ELECTION'S ON, LADS.

    So, Boris wasting all our time with an election instead of getting on with delivering Brexit. Do you remember when he pretended he didn’t want one?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Some of these points of order are fairly, um, bizarre.

    People taking the chance to do some last grandstanding
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Parliament can do what it wants. :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Wee Smog is next
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Grenfel tower debate tomorrow, then NI budget, then another business motio;
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    So Boris Johnson will overtake the following stints as PM (assuming he doesn't snuff it before 12 December):

    George Canning
    Robert Peel - first stint
    Viscount Melbourne - first stint
    Viscount Goderich
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited October 2019
    Nick has spoken well of Anna Soubry despite being an opponent, and I have no reason to dislike her, but this is just pathetic.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277521667338241
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277712961150977
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277901562273793

    'People don't believe in what they just voted on, how dare they' is just sad.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
  • Does anyone know about Ashfield constituency ?

    Ladbrokes has:

    Ashfield Inds 11/10
    Con 2/1
    Lab 3/1

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/general-election-constituency-betting/227804290/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I too have erased 2017 from my memory.
  • Soubry making a fool of herself

    Nothing new there then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I like Anna Soubry but really that was a car crash .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    Le péril jaune.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Boris Johnson is either a political genius or a f***ing moron. I'll tell you which one is correct on the 13th of December.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    IanB2 said:

    Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.

    Sensible timing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    Had. Boris got frit and went for the easy option instead, risking everything.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    The longer it goes without an election the more likely your team lose. Another 6 months of silly buggery in parliament, upteem votes lost by Boris, they would be in far worse shape.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    IanB2 said:

    Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.

    speaker election next week. (or so it was reported earlier)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
    But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.

    All major parties having voted to bypass it today, none of them can object if a single party uses the same mechanism to override the opposition in future.
  • Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
    But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
    Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    edited October 2019
    At least that tiresome meme of Boris having only been elected by a couple hundred old grannies can be finally laid to rest, one way or another. :p
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
    Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if there will be an opinion poll somewhere tonight? ;)

    I wonder if it will be a silly as the one after the 2017 was called ende up being.
    I have high hopes of it being sillier.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    It would be a lot harder for the Conservatives if it was delayed into next year.

    And it would have been harder if Labour had agreed to a GE when Boris first tried to get one.
    Yes. This is optimum time for the Tories and sub-optimal for Labour.

    That doesn’t mean that a Tory victory is guaranteed, in my view, but it made sense for Boris to go now, pre-Brexit.

    I just feel a sense of tremendous relief. A few weeks off from the parliamentary bickering (even if it is replaced with electioneering bickering) will be very welcome. God help us if we end up in a hung parliament again...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Swinson has got her tagline. "Let me be clear."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
    But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
    Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
    Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,355

    houndtang said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.

    I bet Anna Soubry doesn't!
    Poor Anna. Probably time to start scouring the jobs pages...
    Emotional moment, realising your political career is over.
  • Sunil: "Mum, election's set for 12th December!"

    Sunil's Mum: "I don't care!"

    :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
    Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
    Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I see the electioneering has started already with the Labour guy talking to Vikki Young...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    justin124 said:

    I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.


    After three years haven’t we all forgotten how to discuss anything else? Except Trump.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I too have erased 2017 from my memory.
    I haven't erased it from my memory. I especially remember that the Conservatives won it, albeit without a majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920

    timmo said:

    Flanner said:

    HarryF said:

    Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?

    Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
    There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.

    Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.

    The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.

    (I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
    I disagree...think they may do rather well
    I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
    Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.

    But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.

    I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.

    I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
    15-18% LD gain.

    And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    A small plea.

    Please can we keep it civil?

    That's all :blush:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
    Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    The route from 2, 3 and 5 to 7 should be interesting.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I really don’t think who the next speaker is will be a big deal .

    I can’t see the next parliament being as controversial and Bercow can bow out having helped stop this demented government from inflicting a no deal on the country .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Controversial? Doesn’t sound like it from those tweets.

    Anyway, not to worry, Johnson has plenty of experience signing extension letters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    Tories in 300-310 range
    Labour 240-270
    LDs around 30ish
    SNP around 45-50

    Chaos and confusion abound.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    It's best not to be complacent. Everyone expected Corbyn to do badly last time and he almost won.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.


    After three years haven’t we all forgotten how to discuss anything else? Except Trump.
    'We' on PB have but 'we' the country don't really talk about Brexit or Trump much.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
    Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
    But bogged down for next 6-12 months = much high probability of Jez / SNP alliance.

    Now Boris can still play the get Brexit done card, with Labour still having an stupid non-Brexit policy and shortly after a conference where they voted for absolutely bonkers stuff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.

    speaker election next week. (or so it was reported earlier)
    You might be right - it only fell back for sure if 9th was agreed. JRM was cagey about it and refused to say either way, just now.

    Whether to or not will be decided by the party leaders behind chair
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    Flanner said:

    HarryF said:

    Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?

    Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
    There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.

    Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.

    The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.

    (I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
    I disagree...think they may do rather well
    I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
    Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.

    But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.

    I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.

    I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
    15-18% LD gain.

    And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
    Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
    I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,355
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
    But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
    Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
    Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
    Some of us have been pointing out this route for ages.

    If May had gone down this route when she had a majority, she could have had a much shorter campaign.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.
    A Brexiteer friend of Boris would be though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Didn’t Parliament just vote to amend it? :)
    No, it has been bypassed but remains in force. The point is that it now can easily be bypassed again
    Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.
    But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.
    Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.
    Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.
    But that assumption was always wrong. And not liking it doesn't mean anything.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1189271762309206016

    :lol: Or we could have a GNU under Starmer.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But not in time to get it done by 31st October.

    This is the Tory Party’s last chance to cement the great Brexit realignment of the electorate,
    and sever Labour’s generational ties to a host of constituencies. Another election with Corbyn leading Labour is an unexpected gift.

    It’s worth the risk. In any case, there are no risk-free options left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,265
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
  • Still processing it all. I can't help but feel after the undoubted sugar rush wears off the fact if yet another early election will just add to the sense of chaos and systemic failure.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    Well yes, but to be honest, I think Con is going to win. Obviously provisional depending on the YouGov MRP model, but you know what I mean.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889

    Does anyone know about Ashfield constituency ?

    Ladbrokes has:

    Ashfield Inds 11/10
    Con 2/1
    Lab 3/1

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/general-election-constituency-betting/227804290/

    Zadrozny should win I think
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.
    Yuck. Raghuram Rajan please. He's the only one of these candidates with the gravitas for the role.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Game Over

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice

    Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.
    Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.
    Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?
    True. It wasn't a waste of time. Even if it sort of made no real difference in the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,265

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.

    If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term
  • PeterC said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
    I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
    How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Anna Soubry voted no on the third reading.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited October 2019

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    I am not convinced by 7. Same way as I would never say Labour won't win for generation. Characters come and go, direction of travel changes.

    Luckily for the Tories, Labour don't look like post-Jezza they will return to more sensible middle ground stuff. The conference shows the membership now think left of centre politics is a dirty word, it is full on hard left bonkers stuff.
  • justin124 said:

    I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.

    I want to agree with you, but we’ve argued about nothing but Brexit since mid-2018 so I fear we’re in for more of the same.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Labour already pretending "what's this Brexit thing of which you speak, we wish to speak about austerity and education and climate change".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    TudorRose said:

    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    Flanner said:

    HarryF said:

    Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?

    Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
    There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.

    Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.

    The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.

    (I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
    I disagree...think they may do rather well
    I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
    Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.

    But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.

    I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.

    I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
    15-18% LD gain.

    And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.
    Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.
    Cambridge breaks a week earlier than most Unis
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
    We've already made the gaffe. Hopefully Bozza has enough charisma to overcome it, but I'm not convinced.
This discussion has been closed.