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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum
One thing’s for sure in the coming battle is how individual seats voted in the referendum on June 23rd 2016. Above is the standard reference on this projected by the leading political scientist, Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway. Most seats are just projections but in a number there are real results coming from councils which issued data down to ward level.
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It should be theoretically illegal but unless there's influence from an adult, and the people are nearly of age, then it's largely ignored and accepted.
(And that Google Link requires permission to access...)
Nigel Farage could put Jo Swinson in Downing Street.
So it’s over to the Remain parties to get their act together.
On my four part model:
1. UNS?
LD by a big margin.
2. Remainy?
Yes very.
3. Local elections?
LDs did extremely well this year.
4. Squeezability?
Lots of Lab votes to go LD
rcs1000 says "one of about a dozen LD gains this year"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b71SDKPFbk-ktmUTXmDpUP5PT299qq24orEA0_TOpmw/edit#gid=579044181
Personally, I think the LDs will do less well than that, probably picking up 7 or 8 Conservative seats, one SNP and 2-3 Labour.
Is UNS really showing LDs taking 10.7% majorities by a big margin?
Hi @DecrepitJohnL
At the precise moment you asked your question, I was at a bus stop in Mdina waiting rather impatiently for a 186.
There are, to my knowledge, two PMs who never actually attended Parliament while in office. One was Lord Goderich, 1827-28. His predecessor died while Parliament was in recess, and he had a nervous breakdown before it was recalled.
The other was the Marquis of Bath, who was PM for the princely sum of two days in February 1746, returning the commission when he was unable to form a cabinet. One pamphlet drily called him, ‘ the most wise and honest of all administrations, the minister having ... never transacted one rash thing; and, what is more marvellous, left as much money in the T[reasur]y as he found in it.’
Of course, in terms of percentage I would expect the lowest would be one of our own time. A certain Anthony Charles Lynton Blair attended less than 2% of all debates in the Commons while PM. One magazine had to defend naming him Parliamentarian of the Year after this emerged, and the editor said he only gave Blair the award to annoy Gordon Brown.
Fortunately that editor was such a twat he disappeared without trace In journalism. Anyone know what he’s doing now? His name was Boris Johnson.
Twill be an interesting election....
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
Apart from anything else, if you can’t count you won’t know how many other first laws of politics there are.
2. Latchkey Self into House.
3. Oh Feck, yet another LibDem Leaflet with Swinson's Gurning Face on the Door Mat.
4. Recycling Bin.
Is it a Personal Campaign of Harassment by the LibDems to Send YBarddCwsc over the Edge?
Anyway, I must be off. Have fun, psephologists.
The Leave share is not highly correlated with party share except for UKIP and Green
Con +23% (max 100%)
Lab -5%
LD -21%
UKIP +85%
Green -45%
Other demographics are much more important.
For Con: % single households -63%!, % house ownership +52%, % over 65 +40%, % student -35%, population density -31% i.e being rural rather than urban is a greater predictor of Tory vote than Leave/Remain which is +23%. % single households is the biggest predictor.
For Lab: % single households +74%, % house ownership -59%, % over 65 -59%, population density +53%, % white -48%, % student +35%, % leave -5%
For LD: % single households -36%, % degree +24%, % leave -21%
I think we overemphasise the leave/remain share in determining party shares. % single households are much more important.
However, I can imagine (although it is not likely) a Brexit party candidate splitting the Labour vote far enough for a modest swing to the Tories to take it though the middle.
What people are forgetting is that in the Midlands and a North Brexit Party voters are not ex Tories, they are ex Labour. They are extremely valuable to the Tories there for just that reason. You can easily imagine Stoke Central, Bolsover, Normanton, Durham North West and Bishop Auckland suddenly being vulnerable if there is a split vote. That is how they might be, in the good Mr Owls’ phrase, the Tories’ Little Helpers.
And at the same time, Labour cannot tack to keep these voters becuase if they do they haemorrhage votes to the Liberal Democrats in the south and the university seats.
Corbyn has whistled up a wind. Will Labour be flattened by it?
They are not quite soft and absorbent enough for the use I have in mind.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I still feel that the national polls are key though - the LibDems have a better chance of winning St Albans if its clear that the LibDems won't be helping to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing St. Anne Main isn't popular, especially after the expenses business, but fear of Corbyn helps her a lot.
If it is any consolation I got one today as well in post, in addition to a local leaflet, although the latter was not such a surprise as I had given them to the deliverer in the first place a couple of days ago.
Email campaigning is also becoming more important.
How else would he know?