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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Let's see who those 20 are
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    justin124 said:

    I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.

    They won't as the Tories will get Leavers, the LDs will get Remainers and Labour will get squeezed. If Corbyn wanted a non Brexit election on domestic issues he should have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    Prediction time:
    1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
    2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
    3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
    4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
    5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
    6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.

    I think the first half of 3 is highly likely. But the LDs will almost certainly gain seats regardless. (It is, of course, entirely possible that they'll end up in mid-teens, say 16/17, having picked up Sheffield Hallam, Ceridigion, Richmond Park, St Ives, and St Albans, but losing North Norfolk and - say - a Scottish seat or two.)

    For that reason, I suspect that unless Mrs Swinson loses her seat, then she'll stay leader.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Postal votes 2 weeks before Xmas. What could go wrong....?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Lol what's goin on with Plaid - scared of the voters ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
    We've already made the gaffe. Hopefully Bozza has enough charisma to overcome it, but I'm not convinced.
    There has been no gaffe, Boris has reunited the Leave vote behind the Tories while Corbyn shreds Remainers to the LDs
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The 20 MPs voting against the election were as follows:

    Caroline Lucas
    Lady Hermon
    Adrian Bailey
    Margaret Beckett
    Ann Clwyd
    Paul Farrelly
    Peter Kyle
    David Lammy
    Ian Lucas
    Albert Owen
    Barry Sheerman
    Owen Smith
    Daniel Zeichner
    Jonathan Edwards
    Liz Saville Roberts
    Hywel Williams
    Angus MacNeil
    Ann Coffey
    Mike Gapes
    Anna Soubry

    Tellers:
    Chris Leslie
    Ben Lake

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/734?byMember=false#noes
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
    Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
    Clearly the Conservative party doesn't think so as they've had the likes of Letwin, Fox and Grayling in positions of influence.

    They also chose to crap all over the young by tripling tuition fees and increasing house prices.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
    But that can be overcome. As a fictional US President said, "Democracy isn't easy".

    And besides, as many on the government benches pointed out (including Johnson I think) the Opposition ran out of speakers for the second reading debate. I'm not convinced that they would have been organised enough to fill three weeks of Parliamentary time. The skills of Parliamentary scrutiny, as opposed to vacuous grandstanding, have not been well-exercised in recent years.

    The point for Johnson was always to engineer the circumstances for this sort of general election - before Brexit. Passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have denied him the raison d'etre for the election, and of his slogan for it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Sunil: "Mum, election's set for 12th December!"

    Sunil's Mum: "I don't care!"

    :lol:

    A wave of apathy sweeps the nation...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

    Too female?
  • timpletimple Posts: 123

    Brom said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats

    Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
    The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
    Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
    Yes you can certainly make a case that remainers are more fired up - if there were 1m people motivated enough to turn up for a demo then perhaps 5 times that number are motivated enough to vote tactically? 5 million is a lot of votes, enough to swing many constituencies.

    Twill be an interesting election....
    If they are motivated enough to march they will also be more motivated to canvas. The Tory's will be relying on passing Zuckerberg the coin.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,615
    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

    I've already said I have been picking this up in the SW. The combination of Swinson and revoking Brexit is a turn off.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055


    7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.

    If that's a Scots Nats "generation", I think he can live with that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,615

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
    But that can be overcome. As a fictional US President said, "Democracy isn't easy".

    And besides, as many on the government benches pointed out (including Johnson I think) the Opposition ran out of speakers for the second reading debate. I'm not convinced that they would have been organised enough to fill three weeks of Parliamentary time. The skills of Parliamentary scrutiny, as opposed to vacuous grandstanding, have not been well-exercised in recent years.

    The point for Johnson was always to engineer the circumstances for this sort of general election - before Brexit. Passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have denied him the raison d'etre for the election, and of his slogan for it.
    I suspect Boris and Cummings are happy enough tonight.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited October 2019

    PeterC said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
    I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
    How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
    1966 - new goverment only 18 mohths in - majority down to one

    1983/1987/2001 - called early but within fifth year of the parliament, which was the norm pre-FTPA.

    1974 / 2017 - cut and run elections which backfired.

  • PeterC said:

    PeterC said:

    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
    I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
    That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
    I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
    How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
    1966 - new goverment only 18 mohths in - majority down to one

    1983/1987/2001 - called early but within fifth year of the parliament, which was the norm pre-FTPA.

    1974 / 2017 - cut and run elections which backfired.

    Well this government doesn't have a majority so 1966 is the nearest equivalent.

    But its all irrelevant as each election is different.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote warning.

    Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.

    I've already said I have been picking this up in the SW. The combination of Swinson and revoking Brexit is a turn off.
    Did you pick up why. I have always thought that until Scottish Independence is settled one way or another, English voters would be wary of voting for one of the main three parties led by an obviously Scottish person. Not in a racist way, but because with Aircraft Carriers and the closing of shipbuilding facilities in South UK to keep it in Scotland, they seem to view the Scots agitate and get goodies. Which will never be enough goodies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    It's best not to be complacent. Everyone expected Corbyn to do badly last time and he almost won.
    Everybody expected Corbyn to do badly last time and he did do badly.
This discussion has been closed.