I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.
They won't as the Tories will get Leavers, the LDs will get Remainers and Labour will get squeezed. If Corbyn wanted a non Brexit election on domestic issues he should have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement
Prediction time: 1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017. 2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war. 3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020. 4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones. 5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit. 6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum. 7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
I think the first half of 3 is highly likely. But the LDs will almost certainly gain seats regardless. (It is, of course, entirely possible that they'll end up in mid-teens, say 16/17, having picked up Sheffield Hallam, Ceridigion, Richmond Park, St Ives, and St Albans, but losing North Norfolk and - say - a Scottish seat or two.)
For that reason, I suspect that unless Mrs Swinson loses her seat, then she'll stay leader.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from Boris
We've already made the gaffe. Hopefully Bozza has enough charisma to overcome it, but I'm not convinced.
There has been no gaffe, Boris has reunited the Leave vote behind the Tories while Corbyn shreds Remainers to the LDs
The 20 MPs voting against the election were as follows:
Caroline Lucas Lady Hermon Adrian Bailey Margaret Beckett Ann Clwyd Paul Farrelly Peter Kyle David Lammy Ian Lucas Albert Owen Barry Sheerman Owen Smith Daniel Zeichner Jonathan Edwards Liz Saville Roberts Hywel Williams Angus MacNeil Ann Coffey Mike Gapes Anna Soubry
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.
Clearly the Conservative party doesn't think so as they've had the likes of Letwin, Fox and Grayling in positions of influence.
They also chose to crap all over the young by tripling tuition fees and increasing house prices.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
But that can be overcome. As a fictional US President said, "Democracy isn't easy".
And besides, as many on the government benches pointed out (including Johnson I think) the Opposition ran out of speakers for the second reading debate. I'm not convinced that they would have been organised enough to fill three weeks of Parliamentary time. The skills of Parliamentary scrutiny, as opposed to vacuous grandstanding, have not been well-exercised in recent years.
The point for Johnson was always to engineer the circumstances for this sort of general election - before Brexit. Passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have denied him the raison d'etre for the election, and of his slogan for it.
The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.
Yes you can certainly make a case that remainers are more fired up - if there were 1m people motivated enough to turn up for a demo then perhaps 5 times that number are motivated enough to vote tactically? 5 million is a lot of votes, enough to swing many constituencies.
Twill be an interesting election....
If they are motivated enough to march they will also be more motivated to canvas. The Tory's will be relying on passing Zuckerberg the coin.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.
But that can be overcome. As a fictional US President said, "Democracy isn't easy".
And besides, as many on the government benches pointed out (including Johnson I think) the Opposition ran out of speakers for the second reading debate. I'm not convinced that they would have been organised enough to fill three weeks of Parliamentary time. The skills of Parliamentary scrutiny, as opposed to vacuous grandstanding, have not been well-exercised in recent years.
The point for Johnson was always to engineer the circumstances for this sort of general election - before Brexit. Passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have denied him the raison d'etre for the election, and of his slogan for it.
I suspect Boris and Cummings are happy enough tonight.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
1966 - new goverment only 18 mohths in - majority down to one
1983/1987/2001 - called early but within fifth year of the parliament, which was the norm pre-FTPA.
1974 / 2017 - cut and run elections which backfired.
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.
How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?
1966 - new goverment only 18 mohths in - majority down to one
1983/1987/2001 - called early but within fifth year of the parliament, which was the norm pre-FTPA.
1974 / 2017 - cut and run elections which backfired.
Well this government doesn't have a majority so 1966 is the nearest equivalent.
But its all irrelevant as each election is different.
Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.
I've already said I have been picking this up in the SW. The combination of Swinson and revoking Brexit is a turn off.
Did you pick up why. I have always thought that until Scottish Independence is settled one way or another, English voters would be wary of voting for one of the main three parties led by an obviously Scottish person. Not in a racist way, but because with Aircraft Carriers and the closing of shipbuilding facilities in South UK to keep it in Scotland, they seem to view the Scots agitate and get goodies. Which will never be enough goodies.
Comments
For that reason, I suspect that unless Mrs Swinson loses her seat, then she'll stay leader.
Caroline Lucas
Lady Hermon
Adrian Bailey
Margaret Beckett
Ann Clwyd
Paul Farrelly
Peter Kyle
David Lammy
Ian Lucas
Albert Owen
Barry Sheerman
Owen Smith
Daniel Zeichner
Jonathan Edwards
Liz Saville Roberts
Hywel Williams
Angus MacNeil
Ann Coffey
Mike Gapes
Anna Soubry
Tellers:
Chris Leslie
Ben Lake
https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/734?byMember=false#noes
They also chose to crap all over the young by tripling tuition fees and increasing house prices.
And besides, as many on the government benches pointed out (including Johnson I think) the Opposition ran out of speakers for the second reading debate. I'm not convinced that they would have been organised enough to fill three weeks of Parliamentary time. The skills of Parliamentary scrutiny, as opposed to vacuous grandstanding, have not been well-exercised in recent years.
The point for Johnson was always to engineer the circumstances for this sort of general election - before Brexit. Passing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill would have denied him the raison d'etre for the election, and of his slogan for it.
Spoke to four Labour voters. Would vote tactically for LDs but Swinson is a deal breaker. Not much love for her in a constituency she needs.
1983/1987/2001 - called early but within fifth year of the parliament, which was the norm pre-FTPA.
1974 / 2017 - cut and run elections which backfired.
But its all irrelevant as each election is different.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1189312756635389952?s=19