Don’t forget that @HYUFD has assured us that Sunderland Central will go Tory.
Sunderland Central is 135th on the Tory target list, if Boris won Sunderland Central he would have a bigger majority than Blair did in 1997 so unlikely
Talking of Blair; Sedgefield might be interesting.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Phil Hammond?
There's this chap in Stoke that's quite good and all One Nation Tories should support.
I’ll buy it. Who is it?
If you say ‘Tissue Price’ be aware that you have just condemned him to defeat at the hands of highly parochial and definitely non-Stoke voters in Newcastle under Lyme...
Yeah I meant him and Staffordshire.
In my defence I've spent most of today in a sexual harassment seminar.
There are so many things I could say to that, but I think I will just let it slide.....
With hindsight, so should I have done...a grossly inappropriate comment made in reply to mine.
Oh, and something about the forms going in the bottom drawer as well.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
Every election, no matter how chaotic the outcome, is capable of providing a functioning government. Sadly they are not learning to do what is needed to function when there is no solid majority, and recent experience in some other countries having elections year after year suggest it is not an east thing to learn.
If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
No: "(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
No: "(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."
So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?
I don't know why the government would, even unofficially concede on the date. See if you can win first, then if you lose say you'll still back the bill.
The completely different turnout alone we can expect for a December election is surely sufficient to throw everything we already think about the polls, elections etc. out the window, if we weren't planning that anyway.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
Every election, no matter how chaotic the outcome, is capable of providing a functioning government. Sadly they are not learning to do what is needed to function when there is no solid majority, and recent experience in some other countries having elections year after year suggest it is not an east thing to learn.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Ken Clarke's retiring..
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...
Father of the House does that, but Skinner has said he'd refuse that honorific so will that change matters?
No, because it’s not an honorific. It’s the nickname for the longest serving MP, who takes charge if the role of Speaker is vacant. If he wins, that’s him.
He might choose to have diplomatic toothache or something (albeit that would be out of character). But he can’t say he’s not the longest serving MP.
I don't know why the government would, even unofficially concede on the date. See if you can win first, then if you lose say you'll still back the bill.
Maybe they have done the sums and see they would lose anyway?
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Ken Clarke's retiring..
Which is a shame, as he will fall six months short of 50 years in the Commons as a result.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...
Father of the House does that, but Skinner has said he'd refuse that honorific so will that change matters?
Not sure it is something one can refuse is it? If he's the MP with the longest continuous service it is what he is, even if he does not want the honourific, and the duty would fall to him. What would he do, refuse to undertake one simple duty? For a man in his late 80s he can be very child like. Because he doesn't like the title they give the longest serving MP he'd refuse to do it?
2001 was my first election and only time I voted Labour for my sins.
2005 for me, I knew the Tories would lose and didn't think they'd deserve to win after IDS/Howard but held my nose and voted for them as I'd come to really dislike Brown and thought it best the Tories get closer to Labour.
Cameron was the first and only Tory leader of my adult lifetime that I actually liked before Johnson.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
How many General Elections will need to be held before a House of Commons is elected that's capable of providing a functioning Government? I'm not at all certain that this next one is going to do the trick.
If that’s behind, I hate to think what a massive Tory lead would be...
A much closer initial polling position is also a _good_ thing, because unlike at GE2017 you won't have a bunch of ******* morons voting for Corbyn as a free hit against the Tories and nearly electing him by accident!
I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost and gives him 3 extra pre-Christmas days to get Brexit completed in December so we can leave on New Year's Eve.
I'm rarely been more excited - it'll be a bare-knuckle fight of opposing ideologies and personalities that will determine the future direction of the country for decades to come. Real death-or-glory stuff!
Fun fact, Erskine May explicitly states that success speakers have declared that the common assumption that the doors of the Commons are shut in Black Rod's face as a sign of the House's right to deny Black Rod entry is incorrect. Apparently its abotu establishing their identity.
Donald Tusk will be retiring at the end of November .
He will be sadly missed by Remainers .
He was always on our side and passionately believed in all that’s good about working together and being part of that bigger European family .
Donald Tusk was impressive. Hard to imagine his successor will do better.
This lady replacing Juncker, on the other hand, will only have to stand upright without swaying to be a distinct improvement.
One of the nice little gems from Cameron's memoirs is that both he and Merkel were not keen on Juncker's appointment. Hindsight suggests their misgivings were justified.
A drunken oaf dismissed as PM of Luxembourg after his security service was caught rigging elections and who made his country a byword for tax fraud might not have been the smart choice? Who would have thought that, eh?
Which begs the question - why did Merkel not block him if she realised this? I suspect she was merely urbanely agreeing with Cameron to his face to try and change his mind, rather than saying what she thought. If she had had misgivings, Juncker would have been discarded faster than a Labour MP caught talking common sense.
Cameron doesn't elaborate. You have the impression it was internal politics, possibly German, possibly EU, possibly both. She's a pragmatic politician, even more so than Cameron, I should think.
If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
No: "(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."
So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?
I'm rarely been more excited - it'll be a bare-knuckle fight of opposing ideologies and personalities that will determine the future direction of the country for decades to come. Real death-or-glory stuff!
Finally something has come along to make the Christmas period interesting.
It's not going to be all just stupid jumpers, endless sales and folk at work looking at you like you're a monster because you don't want to shit up your desk with two miles of tinsel.
I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....
All those pictures of Boris with Trump...
Bafflingly, Trump is not necessarily unpopular with the voters Johnson is trying to attract.
It’s like Corbyn hanging out with all those mass murderers. We thought that would damage him, but as they were Irish mass murderers that was OK with Labour voters.
Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.
If the election is on a Monday, does the FTPA mean all future elections are on a Monday?
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
No: "(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."
So to clarify - under this act, the next election would have to be May 2024?
Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.
I see you have given up on the will of the people argument.
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.
I would urge caution.
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.
I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
Always here for a wild prediction.
I can only see Tory Maj or hung parliament again.
LD to put on votes, but few seats. Tory and Lab collapse again in Scotland.
Ian Murray to win in Edinburgh South.
Short of something very dramatic, it is extremely hard to see how the Tories do not get enough seats to make it impossible for anyone else to form a government, particularly as nobody is willing to work with Corbyn (and even if they were he’s too tribal to work with them).
So my prediction is, if NOM a further election in twelve months, at which a new Labour leader will be victorious.
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
This Parliament will never endorse a second vote . As a Remainer we’re out of options .
And let’s say the miracle happened who would legislate for it . The Tories wouldn’t and a GNU wasn’t going to happen .
Indeed it could have been worse , the deal will eventually have got over the line.
Last throw of the dice no other alternatives bring it on.
True , it’s a chance that I didn’t think would happen . I’ve been getting a bit fed up with some MPs who keep peddling the second vote before an election. It’s not going to happen , they need to face reality .
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.
My money's on 56+ LD MPs but so much depends on the next six weeks and anything can happen.
There is something behind the move for an election by the lib dems, they have just released their second constituency poll in a couple of weeks. Not getting too excited but things could get interesting.
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.
I would urge caution.
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.
Southwark and Vauxhall will likely go LD from Labour, as may Kensington and Battersea, as well as Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
If Labour lose 100 seats they are likely to be near level with the LDs on voteshare and with even fewer MPs than Foot got in 1983, the next non Tory PM could then be LD not Labour, perhaps Chuka
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
Comments
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1189156820373458955
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
I think he's restored it to those who voted with the whip on the Queen's Speech and/or the Letwin Amendment which is fair enough.
This might be a bigger constitutional change than Brexit.
It also means if Bolsover doesn’t fall, Skinner will be in charge of the election of a new speaker. That would be fun...
Once again it seems the drafters of this utter piece of crap didn't imagine the current situation.
"(3)The polling day for each subsequent parliamentary general election is to be the first Thursday in May in the fifth [or fourth] calendar year following that in which the polling day for the previous parliamentary general election fell."
If that’s behind, I hate to think what a massive Tory lead would be...
He might choose to have diplomatic toothache or something (albeit that would be out of character). But he can’t say he’s not the longest serving MP.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
2005 for me, I knew the Tories would lose and didn't think they'd deserve to win after IDS/Howard but held my nose and voted for them as I'd come to really dislike Brown and thought it best the Tories get closer to Labour.
Cameron was the first and only Tory leader of my adult lifetime that I actually liked before Johnson.
Meanwhile Cash is droning on without mentioning the election date. The dep Speaker has given up trying to enforce keeping MPs to the amendment.
It's not going to be all just stupid jumpers, endless sales and folk at work looking at you like you're a monster because you don't want to shit up your desk with two miles of tinsel.
Edit - actually on checking my source was wrong and it’s the 6th December, but...
Also remarkable that it has never recovered in a General Election since. I wouldn't rule out this election having the highest turnout since 1997.
This Parliament will never endorse a second vote . As a Remainer we’re out of options .
And let’s say the miracle happened who would legislate for it . The Tories wouldn’t and a GNU wasn’t going to happen .
Indeed it could have been worse , the deal will eventually have got over the line.
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
(You are a year out of date).
It’s like Corbyn hanging out with all those mass murderers. We thought that would damage him, but as they were Irish mass murderers that was OK with Labour voters.
I can only see Tory Maj or hung parliament again.
LD to put on votes, but few seats. Tory and Lab collapse again in Scotland.
Ian Murray to win in Edinburgh South.
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.
So my prediction is, if NOM a further election in twelve months, at which a new Labour leader will be victorious.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
So, who will be Neil Kinnock?