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  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:

    Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.

    I wish. But if Johnson loses oodles of seats (and I think he will), I just can't see how Labour can decapitate Corbyn. I'd love to see him lose his seat - but even I believe Johnson, Swinson and Farage are likelier to lose theirs.

    Personally, I believe the bloodiest political spectacle after the election will be Corbyn clinging on as most of Labour try getting rid of him, and Sturgeon and Swinson (who'll command around 100 seats between them) refuse any kind of formal alliance with a party he leads.

    Junking Brexit will be a doddle by comparison
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Jonathan said:

    Never been less excited about an election.

    Because you think Labour are in real trouble?
    Nope, not especially. FWIW I suspect the polls will close as we get to polling day. Can’t get excited by any outcome. Boris has screwed the country either way.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    If Labour lose 100 seats they are likely to be near level with the LDs on voteshare and with even fewer MPs than Foot got in 1983, the next non Tory PM could then be LD not Labour, perhaps Chuka
    He'll have defected to the Tories by then.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    timmo said:

    Flanner said:

    HarryF said:

    Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?

    Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
    There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.

    Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.

    The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.

    (I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
    I disagree...think they may do rather well
    I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
    And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.
    I would urge caution.

    First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.

    Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.

    I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.
    Southwark and Vauxhall will likely go LD from Labour, as may Kensington and Battersea, as well as Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam
    HYUFD, I do like the way you make bold prediction after prediction.

    I think from your track record, your success rate is about one in six.

    So, we're not too far apart, I agree the LibDems will take Hallam.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.
    I see you have given up on the will of the people argument.
    “The people” is defined as Tory voters.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    1983 again for the Labour Party?

    So, who will be Neil Kinnock?
    Stephen Kinnock?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    1983 again for the Labour Party?

    So, who will be Neil Kinnock?
    Nobody, if it is 1983 again the LDs will do what the SDP just missed out on and replace Labour as the main party of the centre left, leaving Labour with just the hard left
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    1983 again for the Labour Party?

    So, who will be Neil Kinnock?
    Jo Swinson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268

    I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1189249212447215616?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Bake-off final.....
  • Boris wins 12th vote
  • Bake-off final.....

    Is that a welsh constituency?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Government defeats a Labour motion for a 9th December election 315 to 295
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Looks like the amendment has lost
  • Incoming:

    295-315 against 9th Dec
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    295-315
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    So much for rumours from the Sun
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Boris wins 12th vote

    He's on a roll.......
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    IanB2 said:

    295-315

    A Monday would just have felt wrong.
  • TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    295-315

    A Monday would just have felt wrong.
    I don't like change.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Dec 13th almost secure now
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Good, a Thursday election is far preferable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    3rd reading expected to be nodded thru
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    Fantasy land...
    Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
  • TudorRose said:

    I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.

    Edited.
    The rumour I heard was that he's on a transatlantic flight.
  • This is a farce
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    Fantasy land...
    Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
    Not all of them are worried. And Tories are already getting triumphant, which is not a good look.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Leslie trying to move a late amendment
  • ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    I'd think 9/12 would be better for the Tories than 12/12 - closer to NATO Summit if that does give Johnson a boost....

    All those pictures of Boris with Trump... :)
    Bafflingly, Trump is not necessarily unpopular with the voters Johnson is trying to attract.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-50225227

    "Harry Dunn's family is to sue crash suspect Anne Sacoolas, their spokesman in the United States has said.

    "Family spokesman Radd Seiger said lawyers would also look at "lawless misconduct" of the US administration."
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Silly decision Monday would be less disruptive to Christmas plans but no matter it will be what it will be, she is not a very good speaker by and by quite poor?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Ruled out of order
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    IanB2 said:

    3rd reading expected to be nodded thru

    Division!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    So 2019 UK general election is going to be Thursday 12th December 2019?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2019

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    Fantasy land...
    Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
    More realistically, Johnson proves a totally incompetent PM, and is rapidly ditched in favour of somebody unexpected - possibly Hunt, whom he might recall as soon as Brexit is over and he can ditch Raab.

    And that person, in the absence of an opposition, could easily still win in 2023.
  • kle4 said:

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    Fantasy land...
    Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
    Not all of them are worried. And Tories are already getting triumphant, which is not a good look.
    Boris has had a good day
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    3rd reading division - sounds like just the Labour anti-election folk against
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    IanB2 said:

    Leslie trying to move a late amendment

    What was he trying to move?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    What time did the Wales v SA game kick off on Sunday?
  • Eleanor Laing deeply unimpressive there. Is she up for Speaker? Useless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    So 2019 UK general election is going to be Thursday 12th December 2019?

    .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,453
    edited October 2019
    Stop with the silly buggery you absolute tw@ts in parliament. Enough is enough. 12th December, get on with it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    ydoethur said:

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    Fantasy land...
    Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
    More realistically, Johnson proves a totally incompetent PM, and is rapidly ditched in favour of somebody unexpected - possibly Hunt, whom he might recall as soon as Brexit is over and he can ditch Raab.
    Who cares? It’s shite either way.
  • HYUFD said:

    Artist said:

    There's no danger of the Tories coming through the middle in Cambridge so the people there can vote freely. I think the students could go Lib Dem.

    Cambridge had a Tory MP until 1992
    So did Ilford South...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    So 2019 UK general election is going to be Thursday 12th December 2019?

    Almost certainly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    The election to decide who gets to own the Brexit recession.
  • GIN1138 said:

    So 2019 UK general election is going to be Thursday 12th December 2019?

    Yes and my 95% two weeks ago has turned into 100%

    Mind you it was a bit fraught
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.

    Edited.
    The rumour I heard was that he's on a transatlantic flight.
    I was right (I thought it was him I heard); he did his show tonight and was commenting that the Europhiles are back in the Tory party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leslie trying to move a late amendment

    What was he trying to move?
    Something rejected at an earlier stage, I believe. Probably the votes at 16. He argued the bill was amended opening the door to further amendments.

    Interesting that Laing ruled it out of order seconds before Bercow arrived to retake the chair
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Eleanor Laing deeply unimpressive there. Is she up for Speaker? Useless.

    Where's Lyndsey? :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Anti tellers are from PC and the iG - Labour isn’t opposing (officially)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Flanner said:

    I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:

    Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.

    I wish. But if Johnson loses oodles of seats (and I think he will), I just can't see how Labour can decapitate Corbyn. I'd love to see him lose his seat - but even I believe Johnson, Swinson and Farage are likelier to lose theirs.

    Personally, I believe the bloodiest political spectacle after the election will be Corbyn clinging on as most of Labour try getting rid of him, and Sturgeon and Swinson (who'll command around 100 seats between them) refuse any kind of formal alliance with a party he leads.

    Junking Brexit will be a doddle by comparison
    Any kind of formal alliance, sure, but informally?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I'm confused what all the other bits going on after the 9th amendment was defeated. What was that all about? Corbyn and Johnson going through the same lobby now, then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    Boris wins 12th vote

    Just rejoice at that news!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I'm confused what all the other bits going on after the 9th amendment was defeated. What was that all about? Corbyn and Johnson going through the same lobby now, then?

    Just nodding thru the technical consequentials
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Laing has eased slightly in the betting and is 5/1 in a couple of places.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Is this vote the key one?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    GIN1138 said:

    Is this vote the key one?

    We just had the key one
  • AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking forward to some Ashcroft constituency polling.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited October 2019
    BBC. Dissolving 5 Nov. There will be fireworks.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Iain Dale just noting the result will be known on Friday 13th.....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    AndyJS said:

    Looking forward to some Ashcroft constituency polling.

    That could be really useful to the LDs in particular in terms of deciding where they should be targeting resources.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    It’s officially on?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov.

    Really? Well, that will please Mail readers, but it seems unexpected. Why are the BBC dissolving now?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    Is this vote the key one?

    Majority on this one likely to be around 500 if people bother to vote on it.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
  • Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov.

    Historic resonance klaxon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov. There will be fireworks.

    Blimey! I knew the BBC were under pressure, but dissolving?!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov. There will be fireworks.

    There couldn't be a better day... ;)
  • Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov. There will be fireworks.

    Blimey! I knew the BBC were under pressure, but dissolving?!
    Funny
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
    Since it was a manuscript amendment, she did need to pause to read it, but might have handled the situation more confidently.

    Leslie is right that the amendment opens the door to further amendments, but they would normally only be taken if the change made to the motion is pertinent to the further amendment. Since there is no practical difference between 9 and 12 December in relation to expanding the franchise, Laing was right to dismiss it. I would have been interested to see what Bercow might have done, had he arrived thirty seconds earlier.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Jonathan said:

    BBC. Desolving 5 Nov. There will be fireworks.

    Blimey! I knew the BBC were under pressure, but dissolving?!
    Yes. Sorry about that.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
    As always, Parliament can actually do things quickly on the few times it chooses to, but it always feels a little bit like no one *quite* knows what's going on.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    Well you're hardly governing at the moment...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited October 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Chris said:

    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?

    No? Parliament is sovereign.
  • Chris said:

    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?

    Jo Maugham preparing himself, as we speak.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    DougSeal said:

    I think the Labour internal polling is right.

    They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.

    Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.

    Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.

    What time did the Wales v SA game kick off on Sunday?
    Well, I did know that Japan had not had daylight saving since 1953. I had just assumed that the two games were on at the same local time. As it was, they timed the second game one hour later. The assumption must have been that a six nations side was going to be in that semi - so it was done for the European audience.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Wonder if there will be an opinion poll somewhere tonight? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    It’s officially on?

    Very almost. This will be opposed by PC, the remaining ex-TIG INDYS, and a small group within Labour. Probably about 50 total.

    Then it goes to the Lords, tonight for first reading (a formality) then debate tomorrow. But hard to see the Lords legitimately interfering in an electoral matter. With all major parties in favour it should sail through.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Laing has eased slightly in the betting and is 5/1 in a couple of places.
    That probably makes sense. IF there is a Tory majority after the election a Tory candidate will be value. Labour broke the alternation rule when they were in government and it is hard to see victorious Tories standing on precedent after their experiences of the past few months..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chris said:

    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?

    She actually came out in support of an election the other day, much to my surprise.

    https://news.sky.com/video/gina-miller-its-a-shame-we-havent-got-a-better-deal-11842846
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    It would be a lot harder for the Conservatives if it was delayed into next year.

    And it would have been harder if Labour had agreed to a GE when Boris first tried to get one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    So Turkeys do vote for Xmas.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.

    One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.

    And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.

    If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
    And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
    I don't even know how I am going to vote, let alone anyone in the area I live in.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.

    Well you're hardly governing at the moment...
    We should be working to get the deal through. There is a majority in favour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Chris said:

    Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?

    On what grounds?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
    Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day. :smile:
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
    I was just testing you, ydoethur :)

    (I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.

    I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
    Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
    Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
    Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
    If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
    Oh behave you human dildo.

    I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
    You should be; will you be?
    Depending on work commitments I will be.

    I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
    You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
    You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
    There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
    Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
    In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
    Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
    Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day. :smile:
    + 10000
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if there will be an opinion poll somewhere tonight? ;)

    I wonder if it will be a silly as the one after the 2017 was called ende up being.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is a farce

    How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
    Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
    Since it was a manuscript amendment, she did need to pause to read it, but might have handled the situation more confidently.

    Leslie is right that the amendment opens the door to further amendments, but they would normally only be taken if the change made to the motion is pertinent to the further amendment. Since there is no practical difference between 9 and 12 December in relation to expanding the franchise, Laing was right to dismiss it. I would have been interested to see what Bercow might have done, had he arrived thirty seconds earlier.
    I still don't understand. Laing clearly tells Bercow "I don't know what to do", and that's after she has asked for a shout-out from the Ayes. Bercow came in between Johnson and Mogg. What was it that she didn't know how to handle? What does it mean that the "knife has fallen"?
  • 438 - 20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    MPs vote 438 to 20 for a December 12th general election
This discussion has been closed.