I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
I wish. But if Johnson loses oodles of seats (and I think he will), I just can't see how Labour can decapitate Corbyn. I'd love to see him lose his seat - but even I believe Johnson, Swinson and Farage are likelier to lose theirs.
Personally, I believe the bloodiest political spectacle after the election will be Corbyn clinging on as most of Labour try getting rid of him, and Sturgeon and Swinson (who'll command around 100 seats between them) refuse any kind of formal alliance with a party he leads.
Nope, not especially. FWIW I suspect the polls will close as we get to polling day. Can’t get excited by any outcome. Boris has screwed the country either way.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
If Labour lose 100 seats they are likely to be near level with the LDs on voteshare and with even fewer MPs than Foot got in 1983, the next non Tory PM could then be LD not Labour, perhaps Chuka
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agent
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
I disagree...think they may do rather well
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !
And I accepted that was wrong ...and apologised but I believe this time that the lib dems could get well above 50 seats edging to 80.
I would urge caution.
First, there has been no scrutiny of the LibDems since their renaissance. We have no idea how Swinson will perform against the kind of media onslaught that both Johnson & Corbyn have faced.
Second, Labour will surely attack ferociously, as they just can't allow the LibDems to get too close or they face being supplanted as the party of the Left. I think Labour will be very hard to dislodge as they will say different things in different constituencies.
I am sure the LibDems won't take Cambridge, and I would be very hawkish on their prospects of taking any seats from Labour other than Hallam.
Southwark and Vauxhall will likely go LD from Labour, as may Kensington and Battersea, as well as Cambridge and Sheffield Hallam
HYUFD, I do like the way you make bold prediction after prediction.
I think from your track record, your success rate is about one in six.
So, we're not too far apart, I agree the LibDems will take Hallam.
Blair knows a united Remain can get 50%+ in EUref2 but if the Remain vote is split between Labour, the LDs and Greens and SNP under FPTP Boris can deliver a Tory majority and Brexit on just 30%+.
I see you have given up on the will of the people argument.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
1983 again for the Labour Party?
So, who will be Neil Kinnock?
Nobody, if it is 1983 again the LDs will do what the SDP just missed out on and replace Labour as the main party of the centre left, leaving Labour with just the hard left
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
Edited.
The rumour I heard was that he's on a transatlantic flight.
Silly decision Monday would be less disruptive to Christmas plans but no matter it will be what it will be, she is not a very good speaker by and by quite poor?
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
Fantasy land...
Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
More realistically, Johnson proves a totally incompetent PM, and is rapidly ditched in favour of somebody unexpected - possibly Hunt, whom he might recall as soon as Brexit is over and he can ditch Raab.
And that person, in the absence of an opposition, could easily still win in 2023.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
Fantasy land...
Labour are deeply worried for a reason......
More realistically, Johnson proves a totally incompetent PM, and is rapidly ditched in favour of somebody unexpected - possibly Hunt, whom he might recall as soon as Brexit is over and he can ditch Raab.
I saw a tweet earlier today saying "where's Nigel Farage today, not a peep". Still true this evening as far as I can tell. Thought he was desperate for an election too.
Edited.
The rumour I heard was that he's on a transatlantic flight.
I was right (I thought it was him I heard); he did his show tonight and was commenting that the Europhiles are back in the Tory party.
I'm in the mood for a wild prediction. So here goes:
Johnson will lose on 9th December and within days we will have a coalition government led by Starmer, Harmen or Benn.
I wish. But if Johnson loses oodles of seats (and I think he will), I just can't see how Labour can decapitate Corbyn. I'd love to see him lose his seat - but even I believe Johnson, Swinson and Farage are likelier to lose theirs.
Personally, I believe the bloodiest political spectacle after the election will be Corbyn clinging on as most of Labour try getting rid of him, and Sturgeon and Swinson (who'll command around 100 seats between them) refuse any kind of formal alliance with a party he leads.
Junking Brexit will be a doddle by comparison
Any kind of formal alliance, sure, but informally?
I'm confused what all the other bits going on after the 9th amendment was defeated. What was that all about? Corbyn and Johnson going through the same lobby now, then?
I'm confused what all the other bits going on after the 9th amendment was defeated. What was that all about? Corbyn and Johnson going through the same lobby now, then?
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
Since it was a manuscript amendment, she did need to pause to read it, but might have handled the situation more confidently.
Leslie is right that the amendment opens the door to further amendments, but they would normally only be taken if the change made to the motion is pertinent to the further amendment. Since there is no practical difference between 9 and 12 December in relation to expanding the franchise, Laing was right to dismiss it. I would have been interested to see what Bercow might have done, had he arrived thirty seconds earlier.
How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
As always, Parliament can actually do things quickly on the few times it chooses to, but it always feels a little bit like no one *quite* knows what's going on.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
They will lose 100 seats, primarily to the Tories.
Boris has a solid majority, drives his Deal through before year end. We leave on 1st January 2020.
Boris becomes a surprisingly liberal PM. And wins over a broad swathe of doubters. Wins easily again in 2023.
What time did the Wales v SA game kick off on Sunday?
Well, I did know that Japan had not had daylight saving since 1953. I had just assumed that the two games were on at the same local time. As it was, they timed the second game one hour later. The assumption must have been that a six nations side was going to be in that semi - so it was done for the European audience.
Very almost. This will be opposed by PC, the remaining ex-TIG INDYS, and a small group within Labour. Probably about 50 total.
Then it goes to the Lords, tonight for first reading (a formality) then debate tomorrow. But hard to see the Lords legitimately interfering in an electoral matter. With all major parties in favour it should sail through.
How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
Laing has eased slightly in the betting and is 5/1 in a couple of places.
That probably makes sense. IF there is a Tory majority after the election a Tory candidate will be value. Labour broke the alternation rule when they were in government and it is hard to see victorious Tories standing on precedent after their experiences of the past few months..
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?
I don't even know how I am going to vote, let alone anyone in the area I live in.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day.
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
I was just testing you, ydoethur
(I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the party
Oh behave you human dildo.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
You should be; will you be?
Depending on work commitments I will be.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.
Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day.
How so? Eleanor Laing just got a bit confused there.
Eleanor seemed lost but it is a bit unfair as it is a very highly charged atmosphere
Since it was a manuscript amendment, she did need to pause to read it, but might have handled the situation more confidently.
Leslie is right that the amendment opens the door to further amendments, but they would normally only be taken if the change made to the motion is pertinent to the further amendment. Since there is no practical difference between 9 and 12 December in relation to expanding the franchise, Laing was right to dismiss it. I would have been interested to see what Bercow might have done, had he arrived thirty seconds earlier.
I still don't understand. Laing clearly tells Bercow "I don't know what to do", and that's after she has asked for a shout-out from the Ayes. Bercow came in between Johnson and Mogg. What was it that she didn't know how to handle? What does it mean that the "knife has fallen"?
Comments
Personally, I believe the bloodiest political spectacle after the election will be Corbyn clinging on as most of Labour try getting rid of him, and Sturgeon and Swinson (who'll command around 100 seats between them) refuse any kind of formal alliance with a party he leads.
Junking Brexit will be a doddle by comparison
I think from your track record, your success rate is about one in six.
So, we're not too far apart, I agree the LibDems will take Hallam.
295-315 against 9th Dec
"Harry Dunn's family is to sue crash suspect Anne Sacoolas, their spokesman in the United States has said.
"Family spokesman Radd Seiger said lawyers would also look at "lawless misconduct" of the US administration."
And that person, in the absence of an opposition, could easily still win in 2023.
Mind you it was a bit fraught
Interesting that Laing ruled it out of order seconds before Bercow arrived to retake the chair
Leslie is right that the amendment opens the door to further amendments, but they would normally only be taken if the change made to the motion is pertinent to the further amendment. Since there is no practical difference between 9 and 12 December in relation to expanding the franchise, Laing was right to dismiss it. I would have been interested to see what Bercow might have done, had he arrived thirty seconds earlier.
Then it goes to the Lords, tonight for first reading (a formality) then debate tomorrow. But hard to see the Lords legitimately interfering in an electoral matter. With all major parties in favour it should sail through.
https://news.sky.com/video/gina-miller-its-a-shame-we-havent-got-a-better-deal-11842846
And it would have been harder if Labour had agreed to a GE when Boris first tried to get one.
(I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)