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Not far off 434 needed under FTPA
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ELECTION'S ON, LADS.0
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438 to 20.0
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BONG
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An experienced campaigner can usually get a feel from doing some proper campaigning in an area (I did call B&R as a narrower LD win than people were expecting), but someone living there who tries to infer from local knowledge likely to be out of date and conversations with a few friends is not a reliable source.Recidivist said:
I don't even know how I am going to vote, let alone anyone in the area I live in.IanB2 said:
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
Meanwhile just 20 against the election0 -
I don't know. That's what her lawyers are paid for.MarqueeMark said:
On what grounds?Chris said:Is there any chance of Gina Miller contesting this in the Supreme Court?
Oh, I know - the prime minister should have advised the Queen to refuse royal assent.0 -
In fairness, on a very careful check about half the network around Wrexham is dual track.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I was just testing you, ydoethurydoethur said:
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.ydoethur said:
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.ydoethur said:
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
(I can't be bothered to fetch my Baker atlas from upstairs!)0 -
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Big Labour abstention I assume.Big_G_NorthWales said:438 - 20
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Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
Now Anna Soubry wading in.
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Though that wouldn't have fixed a date.Big_G_NorthWales said:Not far off 434 needed under FTPA
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Anna Soubry: most backbenchers don't want a general election.0
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Soubry making a fool of herself0
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No parliament can bind its successors. Next.IanB2 said:Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
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Well, TSE threatening to eat pineapple pizza is serious, but I wouldn’t call it momentous.Benpointer said:
Good to see PB focused on Welsh railways on this momentous day.ydoethur said:
Aberystwyth, the Valleys lines, the Conwy Valley including the Llandudno branch, and the Wrexham networks all say hello.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In terms of mileage that's rather significant. Apart from heritage railways, the only single track sections (aside from passing loops) are the Pwllheli line, the Heart of Wales, Fishguard branch and Milford Haven branch.ydoethur said:
Not sure I’d go for ‘plenty.’ Isn’t it the line from Cardiff to Carmarthen (including the spur to Swansea) the line from Cardiff to the Severn Tunnel, the Forest line to Lydney, the Monmouthshire Main Line to Hereford, the North Wales Coastline and er, that’s it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
There are plenty of double track railways in Wales, eg. Severn Tunnel to Swansea.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've got a mind like a Welsh railway, one track and filthy.ydoethur said:
You clearly didn’t learn much from this seminar!TheScreamingEagles said:
Depending on work commitments I will be.MarqueeMark said:
You should be; will you be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh behave you human dildo.HYUFD said:
If you prefer to vote for a Corbyn Labour candidate over a Tory shows you have finally burnt your bridges with the partyTheScreamingEagles said:
Assuming the Labour candidate in Morley & Outwood isn't an antisemite I'd vote Labour in that seat.SandyRentool said:
Is it Andrea Jenkyns again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify, although I shall be campaigning for a Tory in this election campaign, just one.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.
I've said I should be campaigning for a Tory candidate in this election.
I really want to go knocking up the voters again.
I gather Johnson and Corbyn are off on one, but frankly who cares?0 -
Some of these points of order are fairly, um, bizarre.0
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Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.IanB2 said:Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
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Anyway, it’s late and after all the walking I’ve done today I’m tired. Have a good evening everyone,0
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The more you see of Soubry the easier it is to understand why the 'Tories for Palmer' group existed.Big_G_NorthWales said:Soubry making a fool of herself
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So, Boris wasting all our time with an election instead of getting on with delivering Brexit. Do you remember when he pretended he didn’t want one?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:ELECTION'S ON, LADS.
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People taking the chance to do some last grandstandingsolarflare said:Some of these points of order are fairly, um, bizarre.
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Wee Smog is next0
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Grenfel tower debate tomorrow, then NI budget, then another business motio;0
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So Boris Johnson will overtake the following stints as PM (assuming he doesn't snuff it before 12 December):
George Canning
Robert Peel - first stint
Viscount Melbourne - first stint
Viscount Goderich0 -
Nick has spoken well of Anna Soubry despite being an opponent, and I have no reason to dislike her, but this is just pathetic.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277521667338241
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277712961150977
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189277901562273793
'People don't believe in what they just voted on, how dare they' is just sad.0 -
Does anyone know about Ashfield constituency ?
Ladbrokes has:
Ashfield Inds 11/10
Con 2/1
Lab 3/1
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/general-election-constituency-betting/227804290/
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Nothing new there then.Big_G_NorthWales said:Soubry making a fool of herself
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Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:0 -
I like Anna Soubry but really that was a car crash .0
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I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.0
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Boris Johnson is either a political genius or a f***ing moron. I'll tell you which one is correct on the 13th of December.0
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Had. Boris got frit and went for the easy option instead, risking everything.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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The longer it goes without an election the more likely your team lose. Another 6 months of silly buggery in parliament, upteem votes lost by Boris, they would be in far worse shape.MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.kle4 said:
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:
All major parties having voted to bypass it today, none of them can object if a single party uses the same mechanism to override the opposition in future.0 -
Prediction time:
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.0 -
I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.0
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Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.IanB2 said:
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.kle4 said:
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:0 -
At least that tiresome meme of Boris having only been elected by a couple hundred old grannies can be finally laid to rest, one way or another.
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Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.kle4 said:
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.IanB2 said:Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
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That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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Yes. This is optimum time for the Tories and sub-optimal for Labour.another_richard said:
It would be a lot harder for the Conservatives if it was delayed into next year.MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
And it would have been harder if Labour had agreed to a GE when Boris first tried to get one.
That doesn’t mean that a Tory victory is guaranteed, in my view, but it made sense for Boris to go now, pre-Brexit.
I just feel a sense of tremendous relief. A few weeks off from the parliamentary bickering (even if it is replaced with electioneering bickering) will be very welcome. God help us if we end up in a hung parliament again...
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Swinson has got her tagline. "Let me be clear."0
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Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.kle4 said:
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.IanB2 said:
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.kle4 said:
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:0 -
Emotional moment, realising your political career is over.numbertwelve said:0 -
Sunil: "Mum, election's set for 12th December!"
Sunil's Mum: "I don't care!" 0 -
Will a controversial BoE governor appointment overshadow the start of the election campaign?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11892662237475225620 -
Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?solarflare said:
Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.kle4 said:
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.IanB2 said:Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
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I see the electioneering has started already with the Labour guy talking to Vikki Young...0
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I haven't erased it from my memory. I especially remember that the Conservatives won it, albeit without a majority.RobD said:0 -
Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.0 -
A small plea.
Please can we keep it civil?
That's all
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Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.FrancisUrquhart said:
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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The route from 2, 3 and 5 to 7 should be interesting.SouthamObserver said:Prediction time:
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.1 -
I really don’t think who the next speaker is will be a big deal .
I can’t see the next parliament being as controversial and Bercow can bow out having helped stop this demented government from inflicting a no deal on the country .0 -
Controversial? Doesn’t sound like it from those tweets.williamglenn said:Will a controversial BoE governor appointment overshadow the start of the election campaign?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266223747522562
Anyway, not to worry, Johnson has plenty of experience signing extension letters.0 -
I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.williamglenn said:Will a controversial BoE governor appointment overshadow the start of the election campaign?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11892662237475225620 -
Tories in 300-310 rangeSouthamObserver said:Prediction time:
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
Labour 240-270
LDs around 30ish
SNP around 45-50
Chaos and confusion abound.0 -
But bogged down for next 6-12 months = much high probability of Jez / SNP alliance.MaxPB said:
Then let it get bogged down first. We're massively out on a limb here. I'm legitimately shit scared of a Jez x SNP alliance destroying the nation.FrancisUrquhart said:
But it is clear that the Rebel Remain alliance were going to fight guerrilla warfare at every single stage. They is why the silly buggery last week, to ensure it would have got bogged down.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
Now Boris can still play the get Brexit done card, with Labour still having an stupid non-Brexit policy and shortly after a conference where they voted for absolutely bonkers stuff.0 -
'We' on PB have but 'we' the country don't really talk about Brexit or Trump much.IanB2 said:justin124 said:I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.
After three years haven’t we all forgotten how to discuss anything else? Except Trump.0 -
You might be right - it only fell back for sure if 9th was agreed. JRM was cagey about it and refused to say either way, just now.spudgfsh said:
speaker election next week. (or so it was reported earlier)IanB2 said:Last PMQs on Weds. Speaker election post GE.
Whether to or not will be decided by the party leaders behind chair0 -
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.ThomasNashe said:
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.rcs1000 said:
Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.0 -
Some of us have been pointing out this route for ages.IanB2 said:
Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.kle4 said:
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.IanB2 said:
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.kle4 said:
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:
If May had gone down this route when she had a majority, she could have had a much shorter campaign.....0 -
A Brexiteer friend of Boris would be though.rcs1000 said:
I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.williamglenn said:Will a controversial BoE governor appointment overshadow the start of the election campaign?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11892662237475225620 -
But that assumption was always wrong. And not liking it doesn't mean anything.IanB2 said:
Until now the assumption has been a two thirds requirement for a GE (past PB leads refer). Now it’s a simple majority of those voting.kle4 said:
Not really seeing what the purpose of their objection was though. Not liking the precedent of it is irrelevant.IanB2 said:
But maybe not the awareness (I haven’t seen the possibility discussed anywhere, until very recently) and certainly not the precedent.kle4 said:
Yes, what of it? It could always be bypassed. It having now been done so in this manner doesn't make it any more or less likely it will happen again, the ability to bypass it was always there.IanB2 said:0 -
0
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But not in time to get it done by 31st October.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
This is the Tory Party’s last chance to cement the great Brexit realignment of the electorate,
and sever Labour’s generational ties to a host of constituencies. Another election with Corbyn leading Labour is an unexpected gift.
It’s worth the risk. In any case, there are no risk-free options left.0 -
It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from BorisMaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
0 -
Still processing it all. I can't help but feel after the undoubted sugar rush wears off the fact if yet another early election will just add to the sense of chaos and systemic failure.2
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Well yes, but to be honest, I think Con is going to win. Obviously provisional depending on the YouGov MRP model, but you know what I mean.MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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Zadrozny should win I thinkanother_richard said:Does anyone know about Ashfield constituency ?
Ladbrokes has:
Ashfield Inds 11/10
Con 2/1
Lab 3/1
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/general-election-constituency-betting/227804290/0 -
Yuck. Raghuram Rajan please. He's the only one of these candidates with the gravitas for the role.rcs1000 said:
I don't think George Osborne is a particularly contraversial pick.williamglenn said:Will a controversial BoE governor appointment overshadow the start of the election campaign?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266221516148738
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189266222657036290
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/11892662237475225620 -
Game Over
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True. It wasn't a waste of time. Even if it sort of made no real difference in the end.Benpointer said:
Difference being this way the date is set by the HoC, not the PM?solarflare said:
Ironically there were enough Yes votes tonight to trigger it under FTPA anyway.kle4 said:
Bit late to be objecting to the overriding of the FTPA when the Commons have just said they want to override it. Their objection was presumably registered by voting against.IanB2 said:Leader of PC objecting to the overriding of the FPTA and seeking speaker advice
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5 would only really have been likely with No Deal.SouthamObserver said:Prediction time:
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
If Boris wins a historic Tory 4th term and delivers Brexit who cares what happens after, you have to go back to Lord Liverpool to find the last Tory leader to win a 5th term0 -
How about 1966 or 1983 or 1987 or 2001 or various others ?PeterC said:
I agree. The publicc dont't like opportunism and unnecessary elections. I am thinking of February 1974 and 2017.ThomasNashe said:
That’s right. And the public know it too. TMay redux ...MaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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Anna Soubry voted no on the third reading.0
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I am not convinced by 7. Same way as I would never say Labour won't win for generation. Characters come and go, direction of travel changes.SouthamObserver said:Prediction time:
1. Tidy Tory overall majority on far fewer votes than in 2017.
2. No Corbyn resignation. Labour finally has its long-anticipated, full-scale, no holds barred, civil war.
3. LibDems do worse than they expect. Swinson goes by the end of 2020.
4. SNP win six out of seven of Labour’s Scottish seats, but only half the Tory ones.
5. Independence for Scotland and Irish reunification become dominant constitutional themes post-Brexit.
6. Brexit itself solves none of the issues that won Leave the referendum.
7. Johnson the last Tory PM to win a general election for a generation - at least.
Would love to be mostly wrong. Am most confident about 2, 4, 6 and 7.
Luckily for the Tories, Labour don't look like post-Jezza they will return to more sensible middle ground stuff. The conference shows the membership now think left of centre politics is a dirty word, it is full on hard left bonkers stuff.0 -
I want to agree with you, but we’ve argued about nothing but Brexit since mid-2018 so I fear we’re in for more of the same.justin124 said:I remain firmly of the view that we shall not have a Brexit election - and that by mid-November other issues will have come to the fore.
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Labour already pretending "what's this Brexit thing of which you speak, we wish to speak about austerity and education and climate change".0
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Cambridge breaks a week earlier than most UnisTudorRose said:
Students won't have gone home; this was addressed in the debate and certainly I'm teaching through to the 13th. Of course, they might not be focused on politics - but that's a different question.rcs1000 said:
Cambridge is a likely Labour hold.YBarddCwsc said:
I haven't forgotten your prediction for Brecon & Radnorshire ("intel") !timmo said:
I disagree...think they may do rather wellYBarddCwsc said:
There is zero chance of the LibDems taking Cambridge.Flanner said:
Rod Cantrill. a city councillor and Huppert's former agentHarryF said:Who is the LD candidate for Cambridge ? Huppert ?
Zeichner is Continuity-Remain.
The Labour Council is (strangely enough) very highly competent.
(I do think the LibDems will find it hard going in the University seats, as every one already has a Barking Remainer Labour MP).
But the fact that the students will have gone home will have an impact. No more wandering into the polling booth between lecture and pub.
I don't know who that benefits, but my feel would be that it's a wash: with John McClane Remainers cancelled out by lazy students.
I'd go with 80-85% change Labour hold.
15-18% LD gain.
And then a tiny (but real) chance of the Conservatives slipping through the middle.0 -
We've already made the gaffe. Hopefully Bozza has enough charisma to overcome it, but I'm not convinced.HYUFD said:
It does not without a Customs Union or EUref2 added which would revive the Brexit Party, there will be no dementia tax style gaffes from BorisMaxPB said:
I have the same sense of foreboding I had just after the dementia tax was revealed. We should be forcing the Boris deal through parliament, it has the numbers.viewcode said:
You are 40% in the polls and the LOTO is Jeremy Corbyn. What in the name of Heaven above are you worried about???MaxPB said:I'm extremely worried we're going to lose this.
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