politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer

dr_spyn said:

Artist said:

Does Boris have a Muslim Great-Grandfather?

Wiki biography here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Kemal

Died horribly in 1922.

On 4 November 1922, Kemal was kidnapped from a barber shop at Tokatliyan Hotel in Istanbul, and was carried to the Asiatic side of the city by a motor boat en route to Ankara for a trial on charges of treason. On 6 November 1922, the party was intercepted at İzmit by General Nureddin Pasha, then the Commander of the First Army, which was aligned with Mustafa Kemal Pasha.

Kemal was attacked and lynched by a mob set up by Nureddin with sticks, stones and knives, and hanged from a tree. His head was smashed by cudgels and he was stoned to death. As described by Nureddin personally to Riza Nur, who with Ismet Inönü was on his way to Lausanne to negotiate peace with the Allies, "his blood-covered body was subsequently hanged with an epitaph across his chest which read, 'Artun Kemal'". This bestowal of a fictitious Armenian name administered a final indignity to the victim.[14] He was considered a Quisling.

Hunt: "No general election until we've delivered Brexit."

I hadn't realised he was actually advocating a Thousand-Year Reich.

So who lost the debate?

We did.

I think we can all agree, what a crappy format.

TGOHF said:

Maitless compares Rory to Greta whatsherface

He doesn’t look that old.

Gove and Javid probably the winners, neutral for Hunt, small bad for Boris but enough to make him PM, not good enough from Rory (said as a fan)

Jonathan said:

So who lost the debate?

We did.

Rory did worst expectations wise, Saj, Hunt and Boris all did OK, Gove had the most interesting policy ideas I thought and was the most articulate

Hunt has probably done the best from a poor field, but being sensible and measured won’t win many Tory hearts. Rory would have done better head to head with Johnson.

All of Johnson’s weaknesses were there on display for those willing to look, but the sad reality is that he won’t have lost many votes over that performance.

BJ has got landed with one unwelcome commitment thanks to Javid’s fast footwork. It will be interesting to see how he avoids pressure to bring in an independent inquiry into Tory racism.

That was dreadful

My take. Hunt most prime ministerial, Javid strong in parts, Gove excitable, Boris being Boris but no slip ups, Rory was to me very disappointing

Looks like Boris v Hunt to me

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

They were all appalling tonight. They were better last week.

brokenwheel said:

TGOHF said:

Maitless compares Rory to Greta whatsherface

He doesn’t look that old.

He looks both old and young at the same time somehow.

Betfair:

Boris - Strong and stable
Rory - Out
Hunt - In
Gove - In
Javid - No chance anyway

HYUFD said:

No, diehard Remainers like you determined to stop Brexit by all means possible are about to face a PM who will take you on and deliver Brexit whether you like it or not

I've not watched the debate as I've been catching up on Ascot which is perhaps even more quintessentially British then the Conservative Party.

Boris has nailed his proverbials to the mast - rightly, he has reasoned the Conservative Party is dying a slow death as long as we remain trapped in this limbo state of leaving or not leaving. The longer it goes on, the more certain the supplanting of the Conservatives by Farage and TBP becomes.

It's quite easy for us to leave on 31/10 - in the end, doing nothing will get us there. The EU negotiates with the Government not Parliament - the moment will come IF the EU offers another extension. If Boris as PM refuses will he be challenged by the Party and what will he do then?

If the EU refuse another extension, it makes life so much easier but that's not a given at this time.

It's quite clear Farage and TBP aren't going to disappear with Johnson in Downing Street and battle will be joined for the leaver soul while Labour also procrastinates to the benefit of LD and Green.

I'm to be convinced Johnson can take the Conservative Party out of the EU without a WA. There seem too many convinced the economic price of leaving without a WA would be too high and not worth the risk even at the risk of splitting the Party by not delivering Brexit. They could yet challenge the new PM and force them to a Confidence vote.

nichomar said:

More Boris bollocks the situation is different than when brown took over

Why didn't he just say because of the FTP Act the PM can no longer unilaterally call an election?

Can anybody say they were impressed with any of the candidates?

Shame on the BBC; not one question from the north of England.

JackW said:

Scores On The Doors :

Javid -7 - Assured performance
Rory - 6 - Some good points but not a polished performance
Gove - 5.5 - Good on detail but tends to gabble. The stare was back.
Hunt - 5 - Patchy. Flat early on. Improved.
Boris - 4 - Weaknesses clearly on show.

Format didn't help any candidate.

I’d mark Hunt up a point and Javid down a half but yours was my take too. Certainly Rorymania did not meet anything like expectations and he has to be vulnerable tomorrow.

But all were mediocre and the chairing was truly abysmal.

What an awful debate.

Boris came out of it badly.

Rory just seems to be in the wrong party. I now think he'll be voted out tomorrow or Thursday.

I thought the Saj was the best or rather the most like a normal human being.

Apart from him I'm not sure I'd want to have a pint with any of the others.

El_Capitano said:

Hunt: "No general election until we've delivered Brexit."

I hadn't realised he was actually advocating a Thousand-Year Reich.

That was my reaction to Rory saying no election until we’ve regained trust and shown we care about this country!

Very naïve question at the end and none of them pulled him up on it.
This needs to be taught in schools and made more widely known - The UK Prime Minister no longer has the power to 'Call' an early General Election.

Mysticrose said:

What an awful debate.

Boris came out of it badly.

Rory just seems to be in the wrong party. I now think he'll be voted out tomorrow or Thursday.

He needed The Saj to not make the cut, or a standout performance if he did - from the sounds of even some fans of his, doesn't seem like he managed the latter.

DeClare said:

Very naïve question at the end and none of them pulled him up on it.
This needs to be taught in and made more widely known - The UK Prime Minister no longer has the power to 'Call' an early General Election.

They do in reality though. No opposition could realistically not vote for one.

The one thing they were all happy to rule out was a general election.
Yet that feels like the only way Brexit can get through.

Cicero said:

HYUFD said:

Cicero said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

Clear divisions emerging here, Boris and Saj both committing to leave on October 31st and to continue to prepare for No Deal even if aiming for a Deal and orderly Brexit.

Gove and Hunt prepared to extend a little more to get a Deal but will leave with No Deal as a last resort.

Rory says he would take No Deal off the table, Hunt says that means he would be willing to 'Stop Brexit'

Maybe a different version being broadcast here but on my tv Boris did not commit to leave by October 31st, used virtually the same words as May did about March 31st.

He did at the very beginning

Boris Johnson is the first to answer the first question. He says: "We must come out on the 31 October, otherwise we face a catastrophic loss of confidence in politics.

Exactly what May said about March, without actually saying he would definitely no deal on October 31. Listening to him he is not going to no deal, which is a relief.

He will have held a referendum in NI on the backstop by then

Do you ever think before you post. How can the legislation for a NI referendum pass tge HOC by the 31st October

As a general election will be won by then too

Crikey. You’re full of yourself this evening.

You do realise that you’re taking an awful lot for granted here, including the electorate. They don’t like that.

The majority of the electorate voted Leave, Boris will deliver that, it is diehard Remainers who have contempt for the electorate

The country has changed its mind, and if you take us out with no deal then you will be destroyed as a political force for a xford man will win...?

NO, the country has not changed its mind, which is why on the latest YouGov the Brexit Party would overtake the Tories and the BP and Tories and DUP combined would have a Commons majority with Farage PM.

Boris will unite the Tories behind delivering Brexit Deal or No Deal and the BP will fade while the Labour party rips itself apart over EUref 2 and continues to see a flood of Remainers to the LDs and Greens

Its the way you tell 'em. 4th in the polls. What flotsam and jetsam is the UKs answer to Trump going to be leading by the year end? Farage? Wow, I guess you share the Tory taste for strong drugs.

Farage already leads the latest YouGov poll

Gallowgate said:

TudorRose said:

Shame on the BBC; not one question from the north of England.

What do you mean? They had the man from Oxford...

Isn't Scotland north of England?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Gove better than Sunday. The Saj more impressive.

Hunt too bland for me. Stewart didn't really turn up.

Johnson god awful, so I expect him to win comfortably.

Stewart a bit better than that otherwise I agree.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

Given Jonathan would not vote Tory if he was given £1 million to do so I think we can take his opinion of the debate as being just a tiny bit biased

Mike are you arbitrating bets? HYUFD has just made me a compelling offer.

JohnO said:

JackW said:

Scores On The Doors :

Javid -7 - Assured performance
Rory - 6 - Some good points but not a polished performance
Gove - 5.5 - Good on detail but tends to gabble. The stare was back.
Hunt - 5 - Patchy. Flat early on. Improved.
Boris - 4 - Weaknesses clearly on show.

Format didn't help any candidate.

I’d mark Hunt up a point and Javid down a half but yours was my take too. Certainly Rorymania did not meet anything like expectations and he has to be vulnerable tomorrow.

But all were mediocre and the chairing was truly abysmal.

Hunt's performances on Sunday and tonight must frustrate his supporters. He seems to be like a football forward who floats in and out of games. Scores the odd goal but doesn't track back to help the team. Little wonder he's struggling to get clear blue water for second place.

Stewart was impressive for trying to maintain some kind of link to reality, but he still comes across like he's on his gap year.
Javid came across well, spoke with passion and his absence of Oxford Union polish is a positive not a negative for me. No surprise he is a big believer in supply side Voodoo economics, though, millionaire investment bankers usually are.
Hunt is so dull. If he was one of three films you watched on a long haul flight, he would be the one you couldn't remember watching.
Gove - just something yeuch about him, sorry.
Johnson underwhelming, clearly going for the safety first approach. What is his thing about women though, he could barely acknowledge Maitless's existence.
Of course I am not a Tory, I think they are all awful, but Javid and Stewart seem clearly the best choices for the Tory party. Of course neither of them stand a chance.

Boris- a bit too safe and subdued. He should remember he is liked by the GBP and especially the tory faithful because he is a little eccentric and unguarded in his humour.
Hunt - solid as expected. He is safe but boring
Gove - Not a great debater in the TV sense . A good orator at times . Showed tonight . Maybe his natural politeness go tin the way tonight and he got brushed aside.
Saj - Ok in the sense that if it was a job interview for a role to act as a normal British bloke he would have go the job. Not sure any gravitas came through.
Rory - Well its a theory that spouting left wing views especially about taxation will win a tory leadership contest but it seems err brave.

Winner - probably the labour party sadly - Boris is right that blue on blue is not good . Hunt was ok the rest below par.

bigjohnowls said:

Javid -0 - Shit
Rory - 0.5 - Slightly less shit than the others but still shit
Gove - 0 - Shit obssessed with Corbyn
Hunt - 0 - C***
Boris - minus infinity - Shittest of a shit bunch.

Oh dear .... you certainly have a bad case of the shits.

oldpolitics said:

Don't lay Rory after the 2nd ballot, I said to myself, wait until the Twitterati are gushing over how liberal he was in the debate and he drifts in a bit further, I said. D'oh.

We've all been guilty of that.

He might drift in again overnight.

another_richard said:

I thought the Saj was the best or rather the most like a normal human being.

Apart from him I'm not sure I'd want to have a pint with any of the others.

Saj also committed not to extend further and to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, now the non Boris candidate for hard Leavers after Raab's exit

state_go_away said:

Boris- a bit too safe and subdued. He should remember he is liked by the GBP and especially the tory faithful because he is a little eccentric and unguarded in his humour.
Hunt - solid as expected. He is safe but boring
Gove - Not a great debater in the TV sense . A good orator at times . Showed tonight . Maybe his natural politeness go tin the way tonight and he got brushed aside.
Saj - Ok in the sense that if it was a job interview for a role to act as a normal British bloke he would have go the job. Not sure any gravitas came through.
Rory - Well its a theory that spouting left wing views especially about taxation will win a tory leadership contest but it seems err brave.

Winner - probably the labour party sadly - Boris is right that blue on blue is not good . Hunt was ok the rest below par.

The first point could be quite important. Boris as PM could be Boris without even the compensating ability to entertain.

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris it is then?

The pb consensus is that before we buy any of them, we'd like another look at Theresa May.

Casino_Royale said:

oldpolitics said:

Don't lay Rory after the 2nd ballot, I said to myself, wait until the Twitterati are gushing over how liberal he was in the debate and he drifts in a bit further, I said. D'oh.

We've all been guilty of that.

He might drift in again overnight.

In the sense of washing up on the beach?

nichomar said:

This is actually getting beyond a joke what are we wasting time deciding which turd is better than the last turd in relation to saving a morally bankrupt Tory party rather than getting on with sorting out the uk problems. They don’t have to deliver brexit they need to have the courage to say there are more important things in life.

They do have to deliver Brexit otherwise it will be PM Farage on the latest poll and he will do it for them

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

This is actually getting beyond a joke what are we wasting time deciding which turd is better than the last turd in relation to saving a morally bankrupt Tory party rather than getting on with sorting out the uk problems. They don’t have to deliver brexit they need to have the courage to say there are more important things in life.

They do have to deliver Brexit otherwise it will be PM Farage on the latest poll and he will do it for them

Lol @ PM Farage.

There is the minor detail of winning a seat first.

You truly are clueless.

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

Given Jonathan would not vote Tory if he was given £1 million to do so I think we can take his opinion of the debate as being just a tiny bit biased

Mike are you arbitrating bets? HYUFD has just made me a compelling offer.

There was no offer or bet made, just a statement to illustrate you are a diehard centre left anti Tory voter

Spoilsport. I’ve no skin in this. Before tonight as an opponent I was worried about Saj and Rory. Tonight I worry less.

Saj is too raw, but will be a force one day.
Rory is not a Tory.
Hunt’s best hope is to pull of a Major style sensible approach. Not sure he can do it.

Boris is unfit for the job.

Rory's gone walkies... 22 from 10.5 pre debate

Those who thought he did well should get involved

The good news tonight is that disaster will not feature again

The next tv debates will be between the final two and much the better for it as long as Maitlis is not involved

TOPPING said:

Stewart very obviously couldn't believe what morons they all were. And boy were they morons

So is Stewart in the wrong party?

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

Given Jonathan would not vote Tory if he was given £1 million to do so I think we can take his opinion of the debate as being just a tiny bit biased

Mike are you arbitrating bets? HYUFD has just made me a compelling offer.

There was no offer or bet made, just a statement to illustrate you are a diehard centre left anti Tory voter

Spoilsport. I’ve no skin in this. Before tonight as an opponent I was worried about Saj and Rory. Tonight I worry less.

Saj is too raw, but will be a force one day.
Rory is not a Tory.
Hunt’s best hope is to pull of a Major style sensible approach. Not sure he can do it.

Boris is unfit for the job.

If only Hunt had spent the last fortnight travelling round Britain’s market squares with a soapbox, speaking to ordinary people. That he hasn’t says it all.

Feels intrusive to comment, but Javid was quite impressive (the Islamophobia investigation coup was neatly done) and Hunt and Gove both sounded serious and intelligent. Johnson was really keen not to offer hostages to fortune and almost succeeded, but he looked shifty and that October 31 commitment looks very shaky now that Raab is conveniently out of the way (Farage will pounce on that), and the tax cut for higher earners has turned into a vague aspiration. Stewart looked like a trainee.

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Well PB Tories, on the basis of tonight your party is fucked. Which would be ok, if our country wasn’t going to be fucked too.

Darn. Here was I hoping you'd say the Tory leadership candidates had blown you away.

Given Jonathan would not vote Tory if he was given £1 million to do so I think we can take his opinion of the debate as being just a tiny bit biased

Mike are you arbitrating bets? HYUFD has just made me a compelling offer.

There was no offer or bet made, just a statement to illustrate you are a diehard centre left anti Tory voter

Hunt’s best hope is to pull of a Major style sensible approach. Not sure he can do it.

Not a question of if he has it in him, but whether the selectorate is amenable to such a candidate in any way.

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Stewart very obviously couldn't believe what morons they all were. And boy were they morons

So is Stewart in the wrong party?

Him and me both.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

This is actually getting beyond a joke what are we wasting time deciding which turd is better than the last turd in relation to saving a morally bankrupt Tory party rather than getting on with sorting out the uk problems. They don’t have to deliver brexit they need to have the courage to say there are more important things in life.

They do have to deliver Brexit otherwise it will be PM Farage on the latest poll and he will do it for them

Lol @ PM Farage.

There is the minor detail of winning a seat first.

You truly are clueless.

Hyufd is not clueless, just besotted with his own views and parrots loads of nonsense but,to be fair, he does add to the amusement

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The good news tonight is that disaster will not feature again

The next tv debates will be between the final two and much the better for it as long as Maitlis is not involved

We can differ on Maitless, and the public asking questions became a bit tiresome -- you can see why Corbyn has largely dropped it from PMQs -- but what on earth was the set designer thinking?