politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer

MikeSmithson said:

I've got Stewart at 100 on Betfair - a bet placed some time ago. I can't decide whether to cash it in or stay in there.

Now is the time to lock in profit.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1141036221386371072?s=20

Very good of him to be saying that about someone who has just been eliminated. Dom will be feeling raw and this will have helped.

Nice guy, Sajid Javid.

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.

There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.

Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.

That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.

It would be totally on brand for him to get binned for trying to break the rules.

He'd love it - dare them to toss out the most popular candidate for a technical infraction.

Well he is lucky he is not barred from public office for a range of offenses from the referendum campaign including lying and over spending.

ydoethur said:

Endillion said:

YBarddCwsc said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.

A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.

Some imbeciles have already crowdfunded the fine and raised around £2k anyway. I'm unclear what happens to that. Presumably the principle that you can't profit from your own crime applies.

Indeed, he can't just trouser the money.

Can I still describe the fundraising as a whip round, or is that insufficiently similar to a shake?

Endillion said:

ydoethur said:

Endillion said:

YBarddCwsc said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.

A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.

Some imbeciles have already crowdfunded the fine and raised around £2k anyway. I'm unclear what happens to that. Presumably the principle that you can't profit from your own crime applies.

Indeed, he can't just trouser the money.

Can I still describe the fundraising as a whip round, or is that insufficiently similar to a shake?

I don't think we can milk this much further.

MikeSmithson said:

I've got Stewart at 100 on Betfair - a bet placed some time ago. I can't decide whether to cash it in or stay in there.

See how he does in the debate.

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Unlikely, given the current state of our prisons.

That's my concern as well, but I live in hope.

AndyJS said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.

There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.

In the first round it was a case of one phone allegedly being used, and then banned by the 1922 Committee.

You’d hope there would be a penalty for misleading the returning officer

Two questions: does the 33 vote threshold apply to future rounds, and will voting continue on Thursday until it's down to 2 candidates?

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.

There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.

Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.

That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.

It would be totally on brand for him to get binned for trying to break the rules.

He'd love it - dare them to toss out the most popular candidate for a technical infraction.

Bullying people to deliberately flout a rule surrounding a secret ballot by lying to the officers in charge in order to know how they voted in said secret ballot is not a 'technical infraction.' Somebody doing it in a general election would get a very large dollop of porridge, and rightly so. Somebody doing it in this case would, rightly, lose the whip and be deselected.

If it happened hed say it was technical and that he had nothing to do with it to boot. Hes untouchable right now.

Would anyone believe a man who has his extraordinary track record of dishonesty, right from the time when his godfather sacked him from his first job for falsifying a quote (a la Hari or Jayston Blair)?

QTWTAIN...

logical_song said:

JackW said:

Round 2 Thoughts :

Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED

I expect Rory would prefer Javid to have gone too, he surely won't get many transfers from Raab.

Very few. What Rory will be looking for is to peel away some of the soft Hunt/Gove support who will be disappointed with their mans stalling performance. Additionally I suspect they'll also hope to nibble away at Javid's thirty three.

Perhaps more interestingly might be the potential to eek out some of the Boris "One Nation" group.

Take a small bite out of these four groups and you end up with a decent mouthful of additional MP's. Perhaps even enough to leapfrog into a narrow second place. We may have a tortoise and hare race on our hands. Scenario round three

Boris - 140
Rory - 53
Hunt - 47
Gove - 43
Javid - 30 - Eliminated.

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.

Interesting where Raab's voters go. Boris's people might suggest they vote tactically to stuff Stewart.

The Mandy Rice-Davies line comes to mind. Albeit in the plural!

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.

There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.

Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.

That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.

It would be totally on brand for him to get binned for trying to break the rules.

He'd love it - dare them to toss out the most popular candidate for a technical infraction.

Bullying people to deliberately flout a rule surrounding a secret ballot by lying to the officers in charge in order to know how they voted in said secret ballot is not a 'technical infraction.' Somebody doing it in a general election would get a very large dollop of porridge, and rightly so. Somebody doing it in this case would, rightly, lose the whip and be deselected.

If it happened hed say it was technical and that he had nothing to do with it to boot. Hes untouchable right now.

Would anyone believe a man who has his extraordinary track record of dishonesty, right from the time when his godfather sacked him from his first job for falsifying a quote (a la Hari or Jayston Blair)?

QTWTAIN...

I may be misjudging him, but I can think of someone

I posted this yesterday:

"I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes."

Two of them, Tracey Crouch and Damian Green, said they were voting for Boris today. But the other 37 are probably a pretty good bet for who voted for Rory IMO.

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

Teenage Neo Nazis and gay bashers though, in 2019? (and at the risk of sounding terribly old fashioned, young men bashing young gay women makes it even more horrific)

edb said:

Stewart has done really well but I cannot see how he survives the next vote unless one of the others drops out or implodes.

The best case scenario for Stewart is Javid pulls out and publicly endorses him. Otherwise Javid himself could knock Stewart out tomorrow, possibly as a result of tactical voting by Johnson and/or Raab supporters.

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

I recall a very nasty fight between teens/20's of my home town and those of a neighbouring small town in the late 60's.

Pulpstar said:

I've misplayed it all a touch. But I'll be making a nice little profit. Thanks Andrea

Same.

isam said:

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

Teenage Neo Nazis and gay bashers though, in 2019? (and at the risk of sounding terribly old fashioned, young men bashing young gay women makes it even more horrific)

Neo nazis are probably less prevalent (despite brexit)

I think society is (generally) far more accepting of differences than it was when I was young.

There have been some attacks on gay men in London where it was alleged that their sexuality was the motive - some of those allegedly involved acid.

I think any bloke hitting any woman is a sack of shit and I hope they have the book thrown at them.

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.

I now know this for a fact from a source in Boris's campaign.

As I predicted this morning, these will be the off the record briefings emanating from Boris' camp to anyone prepared to listen.

Why?

Because their man isn't doing quite as well as they had hoped this time.

It has the prints of Gavin Williamson all over it.

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid

I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.

I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.

There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.

You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?

It's not impossible. The undercurrent of the contest has clearly been between those prepared to tolerate Boris (given the exceptional circumstances) and those not. If you were willing to get on board with Boris, why not do so from the start?

However in practice, I think a bit of vote lending may have gone on.

Boris has a 77 point lead over Rory w Con members according to YouGov. If thats anywhere near right 1.2 is a gift isnt it?

I’d wait until we see how he performs tonight if I were you.

Wasn't too far out with this from this morning:

Mysticrose said:

Just for fun, I think:

Stewart may just about double his number
Hunt will stagnate
Gove will stagnate or even slip
Raab will slip
Javid will slip

Boris will increase but in a very slightly disappointing kind of way: 130 or so, maybe just under. His supporters will claim he lent support.

So I think Hunt may just about beat Stewart to 2nd place, but only by about 5 votes

As I say, just for a bit of fun

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid

I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.

I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.

There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.

You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?

It's not impossible. The undercurrent of the contest has clearly been between those prepared to tolerate Boris (given the exceptional circumstances) and those not. If you were willing to get on board with Boris, why not do so from the start?

However in practice, I think a bit of vote lending may have gone on.

Boris has a 77 point lead over Rory w Con members according to YouGov. If thats anywhere near right 1.2 is a gift isnt it?

Makes you wonder why Johnson is lending votes out.

Except I don't believe he is.

If Johnson were to lose this leadership election it will go down as poorly a fought a campaign since ... well ... since Theresa May in 2017.

Hello Lynton!

isam said:

Would make a Good Leader (Con members YouGov)

Boris +58
Rory -19

Surely a lay at 10.5 even if he got to the last 2 (vs Johnson)

Your average Tory member clearly has terrible judgement, what do they see in Boris that the rest of planet Earth are failing to see?

edb said:

Stewart has done really well but I cannot see how he survives the next vote unless one of the others drops out or implodes.

I agree. He is vulnerable. He needed to see the back of Javid. As it stands the Hard Brexit faction can vote him out next time.

I think Johnson can gerrymander Hunt into the run off and therefore that he will do so. It's the sort of person he is.

I think that Sajid just making the cut was bad news for Rory. If the Saj was out he would have had a much better pool to fish in. The Raab pool is unlikely to be fruitful. That means he needs to do serious damage to Gove or Hunt tonight. Attacking Boris may be fun for us all but it seems unlikely to get him in the final 2.

Both Hunt and Gove look vulnerable and their support soft. But its still quite an ask when Gove may well gain some Raab supporters.

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.

I now know this for a fact from a source in Boris's campaign.

You now have a source who is dim enough to think Boris is suitable to be PM who believes this.

That is not the same thing as a 'fact.'

It truly is remarkable the lengths people will go toward to explain away or dismiss facts they find inconvenient or embarrassing. A strange trait of human nature.

Ok, don't believe me. This source is very well placed but that's your prerogative. And there are other respected journalists on Twitter echoing the same.

Others may want to take their own view.

isam said:

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

Teenage Neo Nazis and gay bashers though, in 2019? (and at the risk of sounding terribly old fashioned, young men bashing young gay women makes it even more horrific)

Do we know the ethnicity of the attackers ?

Such things will be viewed differently in much of the world.

Rory the only one with his feet on the ground !!!

They look like Westlife.

another_richard said:

isam said:

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

Teenage Neo Nazis and gay bashers though, in 2019? (and at the risk of sounding terribly old fashioned, young men bashing young gay women makes it even more horrific)

Do we know the ethnicity of the attackers ?

Such things will be viewed differently in much of the world.

One of the boys was speaking Spanish apparently, I doubt they'll name them as all under 18

Hunt would leave without a deal but gave himself wiggle room by saying he'd extend if a deal was near.

Boris in 'not answering the question' shocker.

IanB2 said:

Gove: “ I was the first person on this panel to believe in Brexit....”

If he still believes in it, he's the last as well *innocent face*

Phukov said:

noneoftheabove said:

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage

Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.

£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishment

I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.

(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.

Four years about right for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html

Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.

Will be interesting to compare with the youths who allegedly attacked the gay couple on the London bus. Have teenagers always been this bad?

IMV: it's hard to tell, but I'd guess yes. We just get to hear much more about it nowadays.

Think of the mods versus the rockers back in the day.

In addition, fifty years ago the gay couple might not have been willing to report it.

Plenty of violence around in the late 70's early 80's.

Back in those days it was not unknown for the police to hand out a beating or two too.

I recall a very nasty fight between teens/20's of my home town and those of a neighbouring small town in the late 60's.

Violent crime has fallen significantly over the last 40 years, it is a success story and should be celebrated and allow us to feel safer. Yet most people, even when they know the stats, prefer to think it is worse now than ever before and feel more afraid. We are curious creatures.

Because humans have no native understanding of statistics or risk. We accumulate bad stories and the more we accumulate the worse we think things are.
It's why old people are often such gits. They have a false view that everything is going to hell. Old people have always been like that, and always will be.

You are probably right, and with more old people than ever before, politicians have to appeal to gits who think everything is going to hell. Suddenly Brexit makes more sense.

MikeL said:

Boris very strong start.

Really?

MikeL said:

Boris very strong start.

He didn’t answer the question.

#bringbackmcvey

Slackbladder said:

Boris just blew up the 31 Oct deadline.....

Why surprised

Slackbladder said:

Boris just blew up the 31 Oct deadline.....

Boris is the continuity May candidate with different style but exactly the same plan and lack of communication. ERG too thick to realise.

MikeL said:

I think Boris has prepared for this.

Boris, Gove and Hunt sound like the grown ups here. Saj and Rory just not ready.

They don’t understand parliamentary democracy, they don’t have to follow the instructions of a questionable referendum if they don’t think it’s in our best interests. They should have the balls to stand up and say this is shit why shoot ourselves in both feet we will revoke and send the leavers off to a distant room to come back with a plan that will work, it would be a long time before they come back.

Does anyone really believe in this "almost there by halloween" scenario they keep arguing about?

Boris not interrupting anyone - sitting back calmly and authoritatively.

Looking the most Prime Ministerial.

I quite like this intimate format.