politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer
Comments
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Each man needs to attack Boris, boost themselves, and hope their rivals for last place cut each other's throats.JackW said:Debate thought.
Hunt, Gove and Javid will look to very strongly attack Rory. He is the main threat to their final two aspiration.0 -
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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I've got Stewart at 100 on Betfair - a bet placed some time ago. I can't decide whether to cash it in or stay in there.0
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Seriously? I cannot even conceive how you got from watching a video of Merkel to congratulating her for qualities May would not have. I don't even know what on earth you are praising or criticising.Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
What odds did you get ?MikeSmithson said:
No. I went for Christopher Soames. At the time I was only 17 and walked into the bookies in my school blazerRichard_Nabavi said:
Did you bet on him?MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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Gove did poorly. He is only net four up compared to +10, +12 and +18 for Javid, Johnson and Stewart. I think both Hunt and Gove must have lost some of their round 1 supporters to Stewart.AndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Hunt had supposedly 70 MPs backing him a few months ago but has been squeezed by the Boris and Rory surgeCasino_Royale said:
Yep.HYUFD said:
Hunt now looks Portillo 2001 to mekle4 said:
Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.HYUFD said:
Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.MaxPB said:
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too0 -
The key is to get Labour on board - or at least enough Labour MPs to get the WA (or a WA with small changes) over the line. A new face with a new approach might just be able to do that, especially as MPs stare into the abyss of no-deal.kle4 said:
It's technically more credible in the sense that we know the EU would accept what he is proposing, it's just equally not very credible on how to get parliament to agree something the EU will also agree.Casino_Royale said:
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.MikeL said:
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.0 -
Rather ungentlemanly of the Ukranian guy not to hold his arm out for her or something?Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
On the other hand, if Javid withdraws ...HYUFD said:
Yes I think either Javid or Rory go out tomorrow or both.kle4 said:
I know The Saj only just squeaked in, but he rose more than Gove and Hunt, and is surely in a better position for even a few Raab transfers than Stewart, it seems a reasonable result.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
Most Raab votes will go to Boris with a few to Gove so if Javid can pick up a few from Raab nd makes some hard Brexity noises tonight he could knock out Rory as no Raab voters likely go to Stewart unless Hunt or Gove start leaking backers to Rory0 -
That is bad.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
They couldn't have lost many as Rory would have picked up many of Hancock's and maybe some of Harper's and Leadsom's.OblitusSumMe said:
Gove did poorly. He is only net four up compared to +10, +12 and +18 for Javid, Johnson and Stewart. I think both Hunt and Gove must have lost some of their round 1 supporters to Stewart.AndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Hunt did even worse.OblitusSumMe said:
Gove did poorly. He is only net four up compared to +10, +12 and +18 for Javid, Johnson and Stewart. I think both Hunt and Gove must have lost some of their round 1 supporters to Stewart.AndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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The problem now is holding onto the Tory votes from last time! Given all the leadership candidates bar Stewart say how easy it would be for them to get a new WA, even if they recant and vote for it again some of the BXP fearing cowards will back away from it.JosiasJessop said:
The key is to get Labour on board - or at least enough Labour MPs to get the WA (or a WA with small changes) over the line. A new face with a new approach might just be able to do that, especially as MPs stare into the abyss of no-deal.kle4 said:
It's technically more credible in the sense that we know the EU would accept what he is proposing, it's just equally not very credible on how to get parliament to agree something the EU will also agree.Casino_Royale said:
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.MikeL said:
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.0 -
The arrogant assumptions by commentators about 'lending support' are on a par with those of Boris' minders.MikeL said:ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.
The fact remains that 60% of the Conservative Parliamentary Party have so far supported other candidates than Boris Johnson. Given the perilous situation in the House of Commons he will want to be on a lot more than 2/5ths by Friday.
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A Scottish peer as Prime Minister .... sigh ....MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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On Youtube there is a documentary on 10 Downing Street (seemingly uploaded by its producer from a dodgy VHS) that runs through most 20th Century PMs, and includes Home's verdicts on several of them. Just the thing to fill time before the debate.ydoethur said:
A new leader was blatantly railroaded into power out of personal animus from Macmillan towards R A Butler - Alec Douglas-Home who became PM.MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
FTFY...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFA6dksRquA0 -
How do you know he didn't ask her? I doubt very much she would have wanted it.isam said:
Rather ungentlemanly of the Ukranian guy not to hold his arm out for her or something?Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
Assuming Javid doesn't drop out first for Stewart.AndyJS said:
Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Naturally they'd almost all support Boris from now on, with maybe a couple for Gove.Philip_Thompson said:Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.
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I read that it was one vote per day, with only the bottom or joint bottom candidates dropping out, no threshold.GIN1138 said:
Next vote tomorrow and will be multiple votes on Thursday if needed.AndyJS said:The next vote is tomorrow, not Thursday as I'd assumed.
By this time Thursday we'll have the final two.
Then the big two will be known by Friday, unless there's a tie at the bottom.
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But McVey and Leadsom had 20 between them - so for starters almost all of these should have gone to Boris (we know hardly any went to Raab).DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no real evidence of any loan votes. There were 50 votes up for grabs from the candidates eliminated in round 1, and the simplest explanation is that those 50 went mainly to Saj (+10), Rory (+18) and Boris (+12). That's 40, and the other three shared 10 extra votes. No need to posit churns, defections and loans.MikeL said:I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.
If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
Plus he got Hancock himself and presumably the odd one or two from Hancock supporters.
So it doesn't make sense - he should have gone up more - implying he did do some tacticals.0 -
Just another breed of unicornJosiasJessop said:
The key is to get Labour on board - or at least enough Labour MPs to get the WA (or a WA with small changes) over the line. A new face with a new approach might just be able to do that, especially as MPs stare into the abyss of no-deal.kle4 said:
It's technically more credible in the sense that we know the EU would accept what he is proposing, it's just equally not very credible on how to get parliament to agree something the EU will also agree.Casino_Royale said:
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.MikeL said:
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.0 -
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I'll lead you through it very slowly. 'Our soon to be PM'=Boris. Mrs Merkel clearly suffering yet remained standing through two national anthems=Stoic. Not even cryptic.kle4 said:
Seriously? I cannot even conceive how you got from watching a video of Merkel to congratulating her for qualities May would not have. I don't even know what on earth you are praising or criticising.Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
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That's very likely.HYUFD said:0 -
In 1965 there was only one round. Ted Heath winged it, Enoch Powell got only 15 votes, and Reginald Maudling withdrew.MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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If Stewart persuaded four switchers from each of Hunt, Gove and Javid he would then be second on 49 with the other three eliminated in joint last on 46.MikeL said:ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.
That would be amusing!1 -
I watched the video and he didnt do it!Mysticrose said:
How do you know he didn't ask her? I doubt very much she would have wanted it.isam said:
Rather ungentlemanly of the Ukranian guy not to hold his arm out for her or something?Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.Casino_Royale said:
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Why would the ERG try to block the one man actually with a plan to deliver Brexit rather than the pretenders who just want the top job and might do anything once they get it?MikeL said:ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.0 -
I bet you could put Hancock's name at the top of that list.HYUFD said:0 -
Because they're idiots.noneoftheabove said:
Why would the ERG try to block the one man actually with a plan to deliver Brexit rather than the pretenders who just want the top job and might do anything once they get it?MikeL said:ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.0 -
It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage0
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If you really wanted a decent final choice you wouldn’t try and eliminate Stewart deliberately as he offers a genuine choice that can be rejected. To do otherwise shows how narrow the membership views now are.MikeL said:ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.0 -
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You seem to imagine defeated candidates can just allocate their votes as they like.MikeL said:
But McVey and Leadsom had 20 between them - so for starters almost all of these should have gone to Boris (we know hardly any went to Raab).DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no real evidence of any loan votes. There were 50 votes up for grabs from the candidates eliminated in round 1, and the simplest explanation is that those 50 went mainly to Saj (+10), Rory (+18) and Boris (+12). That's 40, and the other three shared 10 extra votes. No need to posit churns, defections and loans.MikeL said:I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.
If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
Plus he got Hancock himself and presumably the odd one or two from Hancock supporters.
So it doesn't make sense - he should have gone up more - implying he did do some tacticals.
Stephen Crabb who once stood in one of these things was on C4 recently saying it definitely doesn't work like that. In fact supporters are likely to take quite badly to being told where to direct their votes.
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You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.Casino_Royale said:
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Rory on Sky News.0
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I was going to make a comment about brown noses, but then I realised it might not be appropriate.HYUFD said:0 -
Vote Rory, Get Nige... Go Rory!!HYUFD said:1 -
I've misplayed it all a touch. But I'll be making a nice little profit. Thanks Andrea0
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I think he may have grabbed several, but lost a lot of others elsewhere. We shouldn't discount churn, just not assume it's because of tactical voting.Casino_Royale said:
You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.Casino_Royale said:
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Absolutely fascinating. I'm glad that Boris has to face a range of opponents tonight.0
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Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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Why would the 20 Hancock and 10 Harper voters switch to Boris ?Casino_Royale said:
You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.Casino_Royale said:
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
And just because Hancock publicly backed Boris doesn't mean that any of his supporters voted for Boris or even that Hancock himself did.0 -
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.0
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When is the question time debate between the two lib dems and the final two Tory candidates for leadership of their respective party?0
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Working out who to lay next. Is Hunt a dead duck?0
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That's not a surprise in the slightest. That many Tory members wanted to be UKIP and wanted to be BXP has been pretty obvious for a long time.HYUFD said:0 -
50 votes up for grabs. Rory added 18, Boris 12 and Saj 10. That's 40. So if Boris is lending votes, to whom?Casino_Royale said:
You think out of 50 votes up for grabs Boris grabbed only 12 of them?DecrepitJohnL said:
There is no evidence Boris lent tactical votes to any other candidate, at least not from the figures. Boris is up 12 from the first round. There is no reason to suppose Boris is up 30, but lent 18 to Hunt who then lost 15 to other candidates.Casino_Royale said:
I think several Boris tacticals went his way so it's worse than it looks.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
The other three candidates only went up by 3 or 4 each so let's put them to one side.
Rory's surge can be explained by his debate performance (and probably the hustings as well).
So all that is left is Saj.0 -
Maybe, maybe not. He certainly ticks some of Umberto Eco's checklist. The rejection of modernism, obsession with a plot, fear of difference and so on.JosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html0 -
How are you defining Boris supporters ?AndyJS said:I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.
People who voted for Boris in the first round or people who have publicly said they're supporting Boris ?0 -
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.0 -
When did Farage get the sack?isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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Anyone who voted for him in the first round or was intending to vote for him this time. Not public supporters necessarily.another_richard said:
How are you defining Boris supporters ?AndyJS said:I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.
People who voted for Boris in the first round or people who have publicly said they're supporting Boris ?0 -
Seems like a pretty low fine to me, the answer would be more fines for those attacking emergency services people in that manner, not that the amoun there was unreasonable, in my view.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.0 -
Why?AndyJS said:I think a number of Boris supporters voted for Hunt. Otherwise he would have gone backwards.
Remember Boris was always front-runner. Anyone who wanted to vote for Boris, as the likely winner, could already have done so. Since Boris boycotted the debate, he'd not have won any converts there!0 -
Not if you regard it as an attack on the electoral process.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.0 -
Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.0
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Possibly. His 'I'm the serious candidate' might actually be more difficult with Rory still in the race, simply because he will say none of the others are serious about what they are offering, whereas without Rory they might all have focused fired on Boris.Alistair said:Working out who to lay next. Is Hunt a dead duck?
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There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
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Almost every political leader would tick some of those boxes.Jonathan said:
Maybe, maybe not. He certainly ticks some of Umberto Eco's checklist. The rejection of modernism, obsession with a plot, fear of difference and so on.JosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html0 -
Have you seen the video where Farage gets dangerously close to advocating violence, and talks about picking up a rifle?JosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.1 -
The punishment was the community service. The £350 was compensation.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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That is abusive and bullying behaviour. I would have hoped that MPs would have the resolve to rebel against such absurd instructions, but apparently not.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
Or Channel 4 have been told/are talking cobblers.0 -
In the first round it was a case of one phone allegedly being used, and then banned by the 1922 Committee.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
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Getting the sack from work, and a criminal record, is the real punishment. The rest is for show.Gadfly said:
The punishment was the community service. The £350 was compensation.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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We are too used to May and Corbyn who both make extensive use of several of Eco's checklist. Not almost every politician is like that. Cameron, Blair and Major would score far lower than May and Corbyn, who in turn score far lower than Farage.another_richard said:
Almost every political leader would tick some of those boxes.Jonathan said:
Maybe, maybe not. He certainly ticks some of Umberto Eco's checklist. The rejection of modernism, obsession with a plot, fear of difference and so on.JosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html0 -
Four years about right for this?JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html0 -
Rules are for little people, not for Johnson.AndyJS said:
In the first round it was a case of one phone allegedly being used, and then banned by the 1922 Committee.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
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It's an amusing story, regardless of whether there's any truth in it or not.OblitusSumMe said:
That is abusive and bullying behaviour. I would have hoped that MPs would have the resolve to rebel against such absurd instructions, but apparently not.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
Or Channel 4 have been told/are talking cobblers.0 -
It would be totally on brand for him to get binned for trying to break the rules.ydoethur said:
Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.0 -
Someone has trust issues....AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
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Nurse Ratched...NURSE RATCHED!HYUFD said:0 -
Agreed. What happened to guy who bashed John Prescott with an egg? Apart from being severely thumped by an ex-semi-pro boxer?DecrepitJohnL said:
Getting the sack from work, and a criminal record, is the real punishment. The rest is for show.Gadfly said:
The punishment was the community service. The £350 was compensation.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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0
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I presumed this was a joke. Absolutely ridiculous if true, and why would anyone not expecting a senior cabinet job care what Boris' team thought? It is a hung parliament, individual MPs have the power, not the whips.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
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I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.0 -
Perhaps he didn't notice? Extraordinary but nice that she wasn't instantly surrounded by lackeys. The more I see of her the more i like her.isam said:
Rather ungentlemanly of the Ukranian guy not to hold his arm out for her or something?Roger said:
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
It was compensation - not a fine, and not based upon income.YBarddCwsc said:
I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.0 -
I expect Rory would prefer Javid to have gone too, he surely won't get many transfers from Raab.JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED0 -
Some imbeciles have already crowdfunded the fine and raised around £2k anyway. I'm unclear what happens to that. Presumably the principle that you can't profit from your own crime applies.YBarddCwsc said:
I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.0 -
£350? Did it suit?Gadfly said:
It was compensation - not a fine, and not based upon income.YBarddCwsc said:
I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.
I'll get my jacket...0 -
Rehman Chishti: Raab -> Johnson.0
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It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.isam said:
Four years about right for this?JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html
Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.0 -
Maybe the question of Boris' lending or otherwise is being over thought? Maybe those who do not back Boris actually don't like him, and don't think he is fit to be leader?
He is still only attracting 2 of 5 Tory MPs, despite drawing support from all strands of thought in the Party. He's also drawing opposition from all strands too.0 -
These things must just be a matter of refusing to hate on someone on your side, because to me George Osborne saying he wanted to chop up Theresa May and put her in his freezer, and John McDonnell saying Labour councillors who obstruct the far left should be kneecapped, are both far worse. But maybe they are perfectly ok and I just think they're bad because I like FarageDecrepitJohnL said:
Have you seen the video where Farage gets dangerously close to advocating violence, and talks about picking up a rifle?JosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
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He'd love it - dare them to toss out the most popular candidate for a technical infraction.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
It would be totally on brand for him to get binned for trying to break the rules.ydoethur said:
Please let it be true so he gets disqualified.kle4 said:
There were similar reports with the first ballot. That cannot possibly be true can it? I'd tell him to get stuffed, even if I would still vote for him.AndyJS said:Channel 4 news: Boris supporters were allegedly instructed to take two mobile phones into the polling room so they could put one on a table to prove they weren't using a phone and use the other to take secret photos of how they had voted.
That would be the funniest thing he's ever done.0 -
Possibly none. He's most likely to pick up votes from Hunt and maybe Gove.logical_song said:
I expect Rory would prefer Javid to have gone too, he surely won't get many transfers from Raab.JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED0 -
IDS the message from locals and Eu elections is we have to leave, well I saw something rather different as there was no clear vote for the shit position that leaves us in. The reality is we sit here while the governing party completely and utterly waste the available time before the end of October in a vanity shit fest from which none will come up with a solution. Given that the had a vanity election in 2017 I supposed I shouldn’t be surprised. This used to be a serious party of government but we have now got two loony tune parties, Tory and cult corbyn. that do not deserve the time of day.0
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Good point. That might just have done it for Rory if Javid does not pull out (and why would he?), it really increases the number of direct transfers he needs from people still in the race to avoid coming last. But he's played expectations well so far.logical_song said:
I expect Rory would prefer Javid to have gone too, he surely won't get many transfers from Raab.JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED0 -
Unlikely, given the current state of our prisons.JosiasJessop said:
It's hard for me to say, as I have zero idea about sentencing guidelines. But as far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) they've committed no violence, and are young and apparently stupid. It's a serious crime of its type, but no-one's been directly hurt.isam said:
Four years about right for this?JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html
Hopefully they'll get the help they need in jail.0 -
Indeed, he can't just trouser the money.Endillion said:
Some imbeciles have already crowdfunded the fine and raised around £2k anyway. I'm unclear what happens to that. Presumably the principle that you can't profit from your own crime applies.YBarddCwsc said:
I think the financial circumstances of an individual are taken into account in judging the fine.JosiasJessop said:
I have no sympathy with the idiot who did it, but the fine seems a little steep. This morning there was a program on BBC One about attacks on the emergency services, and (*) a man who attacked and pulled out the hair of a policewoman did not get much more of a fine than that.isam said:
£350 fine, 150 hours community service and the sack. Fitting punishmentJosiasJessop said:
Farage is many things, but he isn't a fascist.Roger said:It's difficult to compare the damage done by Mr Crowther's milk shake with that done by the fascist Farage
(*) I was only half-watching as I coded, so I hope I got the right incident.
A £100 fine if you are on income support is more severe than a £350 fine if you earn £ 40k.0
