politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer
The result 33 votes being required to stay in Gove 41Hunt 46Javid 33Johnson 126Raab 30Stewart 37
Comments
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Go Rory!!!!!!!0
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Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.0
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All the momentum is with Rory.0
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Fourth like Rory (for now).0
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Hoorar!0
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Glad Stewart is still in. Not sure about him on Brexit but I do like the rest of what he is saying.1
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5th
Like Saj0 -
All the ramping is with Rory.rottenborough said:All the momentum is with Rory.
Surging all the way into 4th ...0 -
Boris still floundering to pick up 2/5 of MPs
Can’t see Rory getting many from Raabs supporters.0 -
Next round needs 55 ?0
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https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065
This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.0 -
Betfair updates:
Bozo 1.19
Rory 11.5
Jezza 20
Gove 50ish
The Saj 200ish0 -
Well, now.
Rory the Tory has the big 'mo'.
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Bloody Gammon. Look what Brexit has enabled
"Teenage neo-Nazis who incited terror attacks on targets including Prince Harry have been jailed.
Michal Szewczuk and Oskar Dunn-Koczorowski were members of a group calling itself Sonnenkrieg Division, described as the “third generation” of banned terrorist group National Action."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html0 -
I like the percentage increasesPhilip_Thompson said:
All the ramping is with Rory.rottenborough said:All the momentum is with Rory.
Surging all the way into 4th ...0 -
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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Well done Rory. Raab surprises me a little, on the upside, given most of the hardliners have plumped for Boris. Maybe a few at least upset at Boris obviously playing both sides? But these MPs never seem to notice that in the moment.0
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Question now: does the Saj do a Hancock now? He appears to have no route forward, and is probably out tomorrow ..... might be able to extract something out of Bozo before that.0
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Stewart clearly now in with a chance of getting to the number 2. only 4 off gove...0
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Someone today told me they thought Rory came second in the first round and was very surprised when I said he did not. His profile raising has been effective on that front.0
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Interesting dynamic tonight - Hunt and Gove will have to target Rory rather than Boris.kle4 said:
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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He doesn't want a coronation may be more the thinking.Scrapheap_as_was said:https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065
This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.0 -
No rejected ballots. I'd almost like one MP to just say screw it and write in Thatcher or something.0
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The Saj spokesman: "We fight on, to victory!" [mildly paraphrased]0
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Will the 20 or so undeclared Rory backers start admitting they have a case of Rorymania?0
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Should've put money on Raab going out. Ah well.0
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Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.0 -
It is not easy debating something where you have given your supporters diametrically opposite promises. It is not so much giving a speech he fears, it is the public scrutiny of the obvious lies that his backers are willing to ignore for now, but at some point at least one of the groups will feel betrayed over.kle4 said:
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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The change from the first round is:
Boris +12
Hunt +3
Gove +4
Stewart +18
Javid +10
Raab +3
Hancock -20
Leadsom -11
Harper -10
McVey -9
I expect Rory picked up most of Hancock's with the others being more equally split.0 -
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Loan votes. If Boris (+12 since R1) did lend votes to other candidates then it was not to Jeremy Hunt (+3) as we'd been told. The two biggest gainers (aside from Boris himself) were Rory and Saj. Is Boris boosting one of that pair or was the whole tale a crock?0
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Time for #OperationStopRory to begin...Philip_Thompson said:Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.
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I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.RobinWiggs said:Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.0 -
Shame ladbrokes didn't leave that 10/1 boris sub 130 votes up longer.Scrapheap_as_was said:https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065
This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.0 -
They have more than enough evidence to fear betrayal already. People seem to either be ignoring those concerns, or feel only he can save their vote share anyway, so it is a risk they have to take.noneoftheabove said:
It is not easy debating something where you have given your supporters diametrically opposite promises. It is not so much giving a speech he fears, it is the public scrutiny of the obvious lies that his backers are willing to ignore for now, but at some point at least one of the groups will feel betrayed over.kle4 said:
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.0
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A good move for Gove would be drop out and support Hunt or even Rory. Assuming he prefers a 20% chance of stopping Boris over a 2% chance of being next PM.tlg86 said:
Interesting dynamic tonight - Hunt and Gove will have to target Rory rather than Boris.kle4 said:
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320 -
Though it would be interesting how close the percentages would be in the members vote?kle4 said:
I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.RobinWiggs said:Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.
I suspect that Rory would get a lower share than Owen Who?0 -
Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
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Possible. I have laid off a bit of my Rory at 11. Still leaves me plenty of red.Scrapheap_as_was said:
What a ride he has had. And not over yet.0 -
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Hancock votes to Rory and Harper votes to the Saj seems possible.DecrepitJohnL said:Loan votes. If Boris (+12 since R1) did lend votes to other candidates then it was not to Jeremy Hunt (+3) as we'd been told. The two biggest gainers (aside from Boris himself) were Rory and Saj. Is Boris boosting one of that pair or was the whole tale a crock?
But there might be a bit of individual churn from MPs changing their mind after what they've seen.0 -
Rory nailed on now
Rory v Corbyn #GE20190 -
Is there a vote tomorrow?Andrew said:Question now: does the Saj do a Hancock now? He appears to have no route forward, and is probably out tomorrow ..... might be able to extract something out of Bozo before that.
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I'm sure that's true. 38% would be a surprisingly large result for him. But it would be fine to see how the members responded to his message in person.Philip_Thompson said:
Though it would be interesting how close the percentages would be in the members vote?kle4 said:
I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.RobinWiggs said:Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.
I suspect that Rory would get a lower share than Owen Who?0 -
Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.MaxPB said:
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too0 -
Provided he has a third plus one, he's in the last two!MarkHopkins said:
Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.1 -
Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Naturally they'd almost all support Boris from now on, with maybe a couple for Gove.Philip_Thompson said:Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.
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"I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis."MarkHopkins said:
Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
- Boris, 2003.0 -
Presumably Boris made sure Javid got into the debate to reduce the amount of time he will have to talk for tonight.0
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Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.HYUFD said:
Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.MaxPB said:
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too0 -
Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.0
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Beeb just interviewed some Tories in Sale Con Club.
Old Woman number one: 'I'm surprised Michael Gove's still in in, to be honest'
Popular as ever.0 -
I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.0
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Defect to TBP, VoNC the government before the Tories have a new leader? That's what I'd do (but then I wouldn't be so stupid as to belong to the Tory Party).Richard_Nabavi said:Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.
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They will be giving Graham Brady their letters of no confidence before he's even announced the winner.Richard_Nabavi said:Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.
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Speculation on people pulling out - but if anyone goes to debate why would that person then pull out before the next vote?0
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Sunil_Prasannan said:
"I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis."MarkHopkins said:
Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
- Boris, 2003.
"No woman in my time will be prime minister or chancellor or foreign secretary - not the top jobs. Anyway, I wouldn't want to be prime minister; you have to give yourself 100 percent."
- Margaret Thatcher
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I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.
If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.0 -
The next vote is tomorrow, not Thursday as I'd assumed.0
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This selectorate are so far adrift from the population as a whole that if this is how you choose a Prime Minister in the UK then lets get the Marxist Corbyn in to shake things up as soon as possible0
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Blimey. Paging Dr Foxy!isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1140983038555410432
It is well known that the former Foreign Secretary Dr David Owen, previously a neurologist, would provide MI6 with health assessments of foreign leaders he met.0 -
Sir Hugo Swire first Raab backer to back Boris on Sky News0
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Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED0 -
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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Debate thought.
Hunt, Gove and Javid will look to very strongly attack Rory. He is the main threat to their final two aspiration.0 -
Hunt now looks Portillo 2001 to mekle4 said:
Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.HYUFD said:
Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.MaxPB said:
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too0 -
Quack, quack!AndyJS said:0 -
Only if he comes 3rd tomorrowAndyJS said:
I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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I know The Saj only just squeaked in, but he rose more than Gove and Hunt, and is surely in a better position for even a few Raab transfers than Stewart, it seems a reasonable result.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
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In other words, RORY to win!JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED
#rory2019
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Sarah Vine will think of something, she's got those curtains in the cupboard that she wants to hang in no 10GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Gove will come up with some duplicitous scheme to get past Rory.MaxPB said:I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.
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I would say only Howard's was a coronation, as he was the only candidate. It's easy to forget that May won the first the round in 2016 with an overall majority (just - due to Dave abstaining).kle4 said:
He doesn't want a coronation may be more the thinking.Scrapheap_as_was said:https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065
This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.0 -
Wouldn't it be wonderful if Johnson organised massive tactical voting and came third?ydoethur said:
He would be mad to risk it.MikeL said:But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
So we should consider it a distinct possibility.1 -
I wonder whether Rory Stewart is having 10 phone lines installed at his headquarters.0
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We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM0
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Curtains for Gove?John_McLean said:
Sarah Vine will think of something, she's got those curtains in the cupboard that she wants to hang in no 10GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Gove will come up with some duplicitous scheme to get past Rory.MaxPB said:I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.
We can but hope.0 -
Rory wont get the votes from Vacuous ToryBoy as he did from Trendy Vicar.JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED0 -
There is no real evidence of any loan votes. There were 50 votes up for grabs from the candidates eliminated in round 1, and the simplest explanation is that those 50 went mainly to Saj (+10), Rory (+18) and Boris (+12). That's 40, and the other three shared 10 extra votes. No need to posit churns, defections and loans.MikeL said:I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.
If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.0 -
Did you bet on him?MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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Are you backing Rory?Ave_it said:
In other words, RORY to win!JackW said:Round 2 Thoughts :
Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
Gove - 41 - As Hunt
Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
Rabb - 30 - BREXITED
#rory20190 -
It's technically more credible in the sense that we know the EU would accept what he is proposing, it's just equally not very credible on how to get parliament to agree something the EU will also agree.Casino_Royale said:
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.MikeL said:
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.0 -
It would be a foretaste of his performance as PM, and fortunately, stop us ever finding that out for certain.Chris said:
Wouldn't it be wonderful if Johnson organised massive tactical voting and came third?ydoethur said:
He would be mad to risk it.MikeL said:But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
So we should consider it a distinct possibility.0 -
Under those older rules it'd probably have been Hunt.MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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A new leader was blatantly railroaded into power out of personal animus from Macmillan towards R A Butler - Alec Douglas-Home who became PM.MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
FTFY...0 -
No. I went for Christopher Soames. At the time I was only 17 and walked into the bookies in my school blazerRichard_Nabavi said:
Did you bet on him?MikeSmithson said:We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
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ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:
Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4
That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.
Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.0 -
Yes I think either Javid or Rory go out tomorrow or both.kle4 said:
I know The Saj only just squeaked in, but he rose more than Gove and Hunt, and is surely in a better position for even a few Raab transfers than Stewart, it seems a reasonable result.HYUFD said:
Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for JavidAndyJS said:I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
Most Raab votes will go to Boris with a few to Gove so if Javid can pick up a few from Raab nd makes some hard Brexity noises tonight he could knock out Rory as no Raab voters likely go to Stewart unless Hunt or Gove start leaking backers to Rory0 -
Yep.HYUFD said:
Hunt now looks Portillo 2001 to mekle4 said:
Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.HYUFD said:
Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.MaxPB said:
But Stewart might beat Gove.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too0 -
Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.isam said:Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/11409830385554104320
